AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

CapabilitiesIncorrect
“A Modern Turing Test for 'artificial capable intelligence': tell an AI to 'Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment' — researching products, interfacing with manufacturers and logistics, negotiating contracts, running marketing — tying together complex real-world goals with minimal oversight. 'Something like this could be as little as two years away. Many of the ingredients are in place.'”

Co-founder of DeepMind; then co-founder and CEO of Inflection AI (later CEO of Microsoft AI)

No AI system has autonomously turned $100,000 into $1 million with minimal human oversight; the most prominent real-world test of an AI running a business — Anthropic's Project Vend, in which Claude managed a small shop/vending business — lost money in both phases through 2025. Suleyman himself, in a December 2025 interview, was framed as expecting agents to only begin passing the Modern Turing Test roughly two years later (~2027), confirming the two-year horizon set in 2023 was missed.