AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“By 2025, China will achieve major breakthroughs in basic AI theory, with some technologies and applications reaching world-leading levels and AI becoming the main driving force for China's industrial upgrading and economic transformation; the scale of AI's core industry will exceed 400 billion RMB and related industries will exceed 5 trillion RMB.”

China's cabinet; issuer of the New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan (Guofa [2017] No. 35)

MIIT reported at the December 2025 national industry conference that China's core AI industry exceeded 1 trillion RMB in 2025 — roughly 2.5x the 400 billion RMB target — and Chinese open-weight models such as DeepSeek's put some Chinese technologies at or near world-leading levels.