AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

CapabilitiesPartially correct
“By 2020, China's overall AI technology and application will be in step with globally advanced levels, with the scale of AI's core industry exceeding 150 billion RMB and the scale of related industries exceeding 1 trillion RMB.”

China's cabinet; issuer of the New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan (Guofa [2017] No. 35)

The industrial target was met: China's core AI industry was put at about 325 billion RMB in 2020, roughly double the 150 billion RMB goal. The 'in step with globally advanced levels' half is contested — China led in applications and deployment but still trailed the US badly in frontier models and AI chips in 2020.