AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

CapabilitiesPartially correct
“In the next year, you're going to see very large context windows, agents and text action. When they are delivered at scale, it's going to have an impact on the world at a scale that no one understands yet. Much bigger than the horrific impact we've had by social media in my view.”

Former CEO and Executive Chairman of Google; chair of the Special Competitive Studies Project

The three technical ingredients did arrive within the year: million-token context windows became standard (Gemini, Claude, Llama 4), and agentic/computer-use and coding agents shipped broadly through 2024-2025. But the claimed societal impact 'much bigger than social media' had not materialized by 2025 — the technology arrived, the world-scale disruption did not.