AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“The danger arrives at "the point at which the computer can start to make its own decisions to do things" — when, say, such a system discovers access to weapons and we can't be certain the system will tell us the truth. Two years ago that moment was expected to be 20 years off; today some experts think it's only two to four years away.”

Former CEO and Executive Chairman of Google; Chair of the Special Competitive Studies Project

Schmidt relayed the two-to-four-year estimate as the view of 'some experts'; at the same event he separately warned that company guardrails 'aren't enough' against capabilities that could endanger humanity in five to 10 years.