AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“Will the AI think it has reached AGI by 2030? I would say we will just fall short of that timeline, so I think it'll take a bit longer... I don't think we'll quite get there by 2030, so my sense is it's slightly after that — but by 2030 there'll be such dramatic progress, we'll be dealing with the consequences of that progress in a big way.”

CEO of Google and Alphabet

Notably more conservative than Google DeepMind's own Demis Hassabis and Sergey Brin, who both pointed to roughly 2030; resolves at the end of 2030.