AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“I think we're quite close to digital superintelligence. It may happen this year, and if it doesn't happen this year, next year for sure. Digital superintelligence, defined as smarter than any human at anything.”

CEO of Tesla, SpaceX and xAI

Deadline is end of 2026; 2025 passed with no system smarter than any human at anything, so resolution rests on the remainder of 2026.