AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“Grok 5 will be AGI or something indistinguishable from AGI.”

Founder and CEO of xAI; CEO of Tesla and SpaceX

Said Oct 18, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026Elon Musk post on X, October 18, 2025

Target date is an editorial inference from xAI's own Grok 5 schedule (training start September 2025, release originally signalled for end-2025/early-2026). As of September 2026 Grok 5 has still not been released — it slipped from Q1 to Q2 2026 and remains in training — so the claim cannot yet be judged.