AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“The chip shortage is behind us, but the next shortage will be voltage step-down transformers, and after that electricity: "They won't be able to find enough electricity to run all the chips. I think next year, you'll see they just can't find enough electricity to run all the chips."”

CEO of Tesla, SpaceX and xAI

Power, not chips, became the binding constraint in 2025: Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said in November 2025 that Microsoft had GPUs "sitting in inventory" it could not plug in because it lacked "warm shells"/power, and transformer and grid-interconnection lead times stretched to multiple years. There was no consumer-facing electricity shortage, but the specific prediction — not enough electricity to run all the chips in 2025 — was borne out.