AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

Self-DrivingIncorrect
“It takes about a year to ramp up production. So we're tentatively aiming for 50,000 units in 2024 for Tesla Semi in North America. And obviously, we'll expand beyond North America.”

CEO, Tesla

Said Oct 19, 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2024Tesla Q3 2022 earnings call, October 19, 2022

Tesla missed the target by orders of magnitude: Semi output stayed at pilot-line scale through 2024 (Musk had already said in mid-2023 that volume production would not start until late 2024), and the 50,000-unit-per-year Nevada factory only opened in September 2026.