“Tesla will miss delivery expectations for FY26 — the Street is looking for 16%; we believe next year deliveries will be flat to up 5%. A miss on the delivery number doesn't change the Tesla investment case, which is built on FSD, Robotaxi and Optimus.”

Resolves with Tesla's Q4 2026 delivery release in early January 2027; 2025 deliveries were down an estimated ~7%.