AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“It is not the shortage of AI chips, it is the shortage of our CoWoS capacity. Currently, we cannot fulfill 100% of our customers' needs, but we try to support about 80%. We think this is a temporary phenomenon. After our expansion of [advanced chip packaging capacity], it should be alleviated in one and a half years.”

Chairman, TSMC

The CoWoS bottleneck was not alleviated within 18 months: Liu's successor C.C. Wei publicly revised the timeline in July 2024 to 'I hope in 2025 or 2026 we can reach the balance,' and industry reporting in mid-2026 still put CoWoS supply roughly 10–20% short of demand despite capacity doubling in both 2024 and 2025.