“The S&P 500 will rally about 16% to 7,000 by the middle of 2025 before retreating later in the year — 'a tale of two years.'”

The S&P 500 closed the first half of 2025 at 6,204.95 on June 30 — about 11% short of 7,000 — after an April tariff-driven selloff; the index never touched 7,000 at any point in 2025 (2025 peak close: 6,932 on December 23).