AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

CapabilitiesIncorrect
“The computational capacity of a $4,000 computing device (in 1999 dollars) is approximately equal to the computational capability of the human brain (20 quadrillion calculations per second).”

Inventor and futurist, author of The Age of Spiritual Machines

In 2019 a ~$4,000 consumer machine delivered on the order of tens of teraflops (10^13), roughly three orders of magnitude short of the 2×10^16 calculations per second Kurzweil specified; 20-petaflop performance was confined to the world's largest supercomputers.