AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“I think the number is going to be more like 20-30% of the code could get written by AI — not 90%. Are there some really simple use cases? Yes, but there's an equally complicated number of ones where it's going to be zero.”

Chairman and CEO, IBM

Said Mar 11, 2025Deadline Sep 30, 2025SXSW onstage interview, reported by TechCrunch, March 11, 2025

Krishna was rejecting Dario Amodei's claim that AI would write 90% of code within three to six months; by the end of that window the best public figures from heavy AI adopters clustered in Krishna's range — Satya Nadella said 20-30% of code in Microsoft repositories was AI-written (April 2025) and Sundar Pichai cited roughly 30% at Google. No 90%-of-all-code milestone arrived in the implied window, though some individual firms reported higher shares later in 2026.