AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“My prediction is that in 10 years now, training data won't be important. All the large language models require scaling huge methods of data... So I think in 10 years, we'll have abilities of doing reasoning without needing to have millions of examples.”

Co-founder and Senior Maverick, WIRED; author of 'The Inevitable'

Deadline is 2034; as of now frontier models still depend on massive pretraining corpora, though sample-efficient reasoning via RL and test-time compute is an active trend.