“We are already living in a continuous intelligence explosion and have been for decades; AGI will not produce a discrete break in economic growth but will blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of ~2% GDP growth. Asked directly whether the rate of growth will not change — 'Yes, my expectation is that it stays in the same pattern.'”
Founding member of OpenAI; former Senior Director of AI at Tesla
Said Oct 17, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2035Dwarkesh Podcast, 'Andrej Karpathy — AGI is still a decade away', 17 October 2025
Narrowed from a bundled 'no intelligence explosion or GDP takeoff' framing to the growth-rate component Karpathy explicitly affirmed; resolvable against US real GDP (per capita) growth staying near its long-run ~2% trend over his own stated decade-to-AGI horizon.