“By 2029 no computer — or 'machine intelligence' — will have passed the Turing Test.”
Founder of Lotus Development Corporation; co-founder, Electronic Frontier Foundation
The inaugural Long Bets wager, $20,000 against Ray Kurzweil, remains open until the end of 2029 under detailed agreed rules (multi-hour adversarial interviews with human judges and human foils); neither side has conceded, and claimed 'passes' such as Eugene Goostman in 2014 did not meet the bet's terms.