“Based on the current trends in technology advancement and adoption, I predict that within fifteen years, artificial intelligence will technically be able to replace around 40 to 50 percent of jobs in the United States. Actual job losses may end up lagging those technical capabilities by an additional decade, but I forecast that the disruption to job markets will be very real, very large, and coming soon.”
Chairman and CEO, Sinovation Ventures; former President, Google China; author of AI Superpowers
Said Sep 25, 2018Deadline Dec 31, 2033Kai-Fu Lee, AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order (Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 25 September 2018)
Deadline is 2033. Elsewhere in the same book Lee frames the estimate as 'within ten to twenty years, 40 to 50 percent of jobs in the United States'; in 2024 he described the forecast as having proven 'eerily accurate.'