“Bet against near-term explosive AI-driven growth: Hanson stakes $10,000 against Samuel Albanie's $2,500 (4:1, implied 20% probability) that U.S. real GDP per capita will NOT grow by at least 15% within a single year — i.e. no quarter through 2033Q4 in which BEA real GDP per capita is at least 15% above the prior peak four quarters earlier.”
Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University
Said Aug 15, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2033"Bet on Explosive AI-Driven Growth" agreed terms document (Benjamin Moll), agreed on X 15–16 August 2026; publicized by Marginal Revolution
Resolves on BEA real GDP per capita data through 2033Q4; as of early 2026 no such 15% single-year jump has occurred.