“I predict that, like in every prior year, 2024 will NOT see the sort of AI econ impact or investment prices that one might expect if it were about take over most of the economy in a decade or so. In fact, I'd bet on this at 10-1 odds.”

Robin HansonEconomist

Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University; author of The Age of Em

2024 showed no macroeconomic signature of imminent economy-wide automation: US real GDP grew roughly 2.8%, productivity growth was normal-to-good, aggregate labor markets showed no AI-driven displacement, and real interest rates did not move as they would if markets priced AI taking over most of the economy within a decade. AI-related equity and capex booms (e.g. Nvidia) were large but far below takeover-scale pricing, so the claim resolves in Hanson's favor, though its wording is subjective.