“The US BEA has been tracking the fraction of the US economy devoted to computer and electronics hardware. That fraction was 2.3% in 1997, 1.7% in 2003, and 1.58% in 2008, and 1.56% in 2012. I offer to bet that this number won't rise above 5% by 2025. And I'll give 20-1 odds! So far, I have no takers.”

Robin HansonEconomist

Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University

The BEA computer-and-electronic-products share of the US economy stayed near its long-run ~1.5–2% level and never approached 5%; Hanson appended to the post on 1 January 2025 that he had won the bet (the counterparty who took the 20-1 offer did not pay up).