“I expect full automation of AI R&D perhaps somewhere around 2031, 2030. Getting to the 'beats all humans on the job' milestone, maybe my median expectation is around 2033. But if I see AIs fully automating AI R&D, I think I'm expecting that probably within a year.”
Chief Scientist, Redwood Research
Said Aug 11, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2033Dwarkesh Podcast, 'Ryan Greenblatt – What happens once AI can automate AI research?', August 11, 2026
Median-timeline forecast: full automation of AI R&D around 2030-2031 and AI that beats all humans on the job around 2033; both deadlines are in the future.