“I now would put ~15% probability [of full automation of AI R&D] by the start of 2029 and a 45% chance by the start of 2033.”
Chief Scientist, Redwood Research
Said Aug 20, 2025Deadline Jan 1, 2033Redwood Research blog, 'My AGI timeline updates from GPT-5 (and 2025 so far)', August 2025 (also posted on X, 20 August 2025)
A downward revision from his start-of-2025 view of ~25% by 2029 and ~50% by 2033; the first checkpoint (start of 2029) has not yet arrived.