AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

Self-DrivingIncorrect
“Miles between critical interventions — like you mentioned, Elon, we already made a 100x improvement with 12.5 from the starting of this year. And then with the v13 release, we expect to be a 1000x from January of this year on production software.”

Vice President of AI Software (Autopilot), Tesla

Said Oct 23, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024Tesla Q3 2024 earnings call, October 23, 2024

FSD v13 shipped in December 2024, but Tesla never published intervention data and crowdsourced datasets (the same ones Musk has cited) showed roughly 440–500 miles between critical disengagements — about a 2x gain over v12.5, not the ~10x implied by a 1000x-from-January figure. The companion claim that FSD would cross human miles-per-collision by Q2 2025 also failed.