“It's hard not to conclude that the headlines are inflated. In fact, we've done the math, and if Nvidia were able to double its output and every single chip went to ERCOT, it still wouldn't be enough chips to support some of the load forecasts in ERCOT. (MISO, PJM and ERCOT account for less than half of total U.S. power demand, but they alone are projecting demand growth notably higher than a wide range of consultants for the entirety of the U.S.)”

Resolvable against realized load growth versus the ERCOT/PJM/MISO forecasts through 2030; ERCOT's large-load queue has continued to balloon, with ERCOT itself cautioning in 2026 that its own 4x forecast may be overstated.