AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“The cost of training frontier AI models has grown by a factor of 2 to 3x per year for the past eight years, suggesting that the largest models will cost over a billion dollars by 2027.”

Researcher, Epoch AI; lead author of 'The rising costs of training frontier AI models'

Resolves on whether a single frontier training run's amortized hardware-plus-energy cost exceeds $1 billion by the end of 2027.