AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“ARC-4 is in the works, to be released early 2027. ARC-5 is also planned. The final ARC will probably be 6-7. The point is to keep making benchmarks until it is no longer possible to propose something that humans can do and AI can't. AGI ~2030.”

Co-founder, ARC Prize Foundation and Ndea; creator of Keras

Said Feb 12, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030X post by @fchollet, February 12, 2026

Notable because Chollet is widely cast as an AGI skeptic; the post drew attention (including from OpenAI's Noam Brown) for putting his AGI estimate within about five years.