AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“We'll be releasing a v2 of the [ARC-AGI] benchmark early next year (human testing is currently being finalized). Why? Because AGI progress in 2025 is going to need a better compass than v1.”

Creator of Keras and the ARC-AGI benchmark; co-founder, ARC Prize Foundation

Said Dec 9, 2024Deadline Jun 30, 2025François Chollet post on X, December 9, 2024

ARC-AGI-2 was released on March 24, 2025, alongside the launch of ARC Prize 2025, comfortably within the 'early next year' window.