“I'm skeptical that AI will do anything dramatic anytime soon. I think AI will be like electricity or the internet: another new technology that will take decades to work its ultimate magic. [Bet terms: Holden wins $5,000 if, by the end of 2044, there has been at least one year for which it is plausible that real Gross World Product was at least 4x the real GWP of 2024, or at most 1/2 the real GWP of 2024. Otherwise, Bryan wins $1,000.]”
Professor of economics, George Mason University; author of the Bet On It blog
Said Jul 21, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2044Bet On It (betonit.ai), 'My Feast-or-Famine AI Bet with Holden Karnofsky', July 21, 2025
Resolves at the end of 2044; Caplan is himself the designated adjudicator, with Alex Tabarrok, Maxwell Tabarrok and Zixuan Ma as backups.