“So let's talk about AGI in general: the Anthropic timeline of 2028 seems like a good personal planning starting point. Even if you're wrong, you probably weren't going to do a lot of projects within the next 3 years anyway.”
Pseudonymous independent AI researcher and writer, Gwern.net
Said Nov 13, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2028Dwarkesh Podcast, 'Gwern — Anonymous writer who predicted AI trajectory on $12K/year salary' (recorded August 13, 2024; published November 13, 2024)
Gwern adopts Anthropic's ~2028 AGI timeline as his working planning assumption; resolvable at the end of 2028. A transcript of the same passage is mirrored at https://gwern.net/interview-dwarkesh.