“The median estimate of respondents was for a one in two chance that high-level machine intelligence — a machine that can carry out most human professions at least as well as a typical human — will be developed around 2040–2050.”
Philosopher and Director, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford; co-author with Vincent C. Müller of 'Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinion'
Said 2014Deadline Dec 31, 2050Vincent C. Müller & Nick Bostrom, 'Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinion' (2014)
Survey of 170 respondents conducted in 2012/2013 across four expert groups; the all-group median for a 50% probability of HLMI was 2040.