“Surveyed AI experts gave a median date of 2022 for a 10% probability of high-level machine intelligence — a machine that can carry out most human professions at least as well as a typical human.”

Nick BostromResearcher

Philosopher and Director, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford; co-author with Vincent C. Müller of 'Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinion'

No system by the end of 2022 could carry out most human professions at least as well as a typical human, so the surveyed experts' low (10%) probability for that date was borne out — the 90% 'not yet' side was right.