“This paper outlines the case for believing that we will have superhuman artificial intelligence within the first third of the next [i.e. this] century.”
Philosopher, University of Oxford; author of Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies
Said 1998Deadline Dec 31, 2033Nick Bostrom, 'How Long Before Superintelligence?', International Journal of Future Studies, vol. 2 (1998); revised version with postscripts on the author's website
Deadline is the end of the first third of the 21st century (~2033); no superhuman AI exists as of early 2026, though Bostrom's later postscripts note no major AGI breakthrough had occurred.