CapabilitiesCorrect
“Depending on degree of optimization assumed, human-level intelligence probably requires between 10^14 and 10^17 ops... If Moore's law continues to hold then the lower bound will be reached sometime between 2004 and 2008, and the upper bound between 2015 and 2024.”
Philosopher, University of Oxford; author of Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies
Said 1998Deadline Dec 31, 2024Nick Bostrom, 'How Long Before Superintelligence?', International Journal of Future Studies, vol. 2 (1998); revised version with postscripts on the author's website
Both hardware windows held: leading supercomputers passed 10^14 ops in 2004–2005 (IBM Blue Gene/L, 70.7 TFLOPS in Nov 2004 rising past 100 TFLOPS in 2005) and passed 10^17 ops in 2016–2018 (Sunway TaihuLight at 93 PFLOPS Linpack/125 PFLOPS peak in 2016; Summit at 122+ PFLOPS in 2018), inside the predicted 2004–2008 and 2015–2024 ranges. The separate question of whether that hardware yields human-level intelligence is not part of this claim.