AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“AGI will not happen in your lifetime. Or in the lifetime of your children. Or in the lifetime of your children's children.”

IBM Fellow and Chief Scientist for Software Engineering, IBM Research; co-creator of UML

No explicit date, but the claim clearly implies AGI is at least three generations (roughly a century) away; in the same dialogue Booch put the timeline at 'a few generations' against Marcus's 'few decades.'