Every prediction on the Index — all 1,185 on one page, newest first. Prefer filters and countdowns? Use the Index. The raw data is also available as JSON.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Nov 12, 2026Deadline Jul 31, 2027
“Our hyperscaler business continues to show strong momentum with AI infrastructure revenue projected to grow to $9 billion in fiscal year '27, more than double fiscal year '26 levels — we raised the AI guidance to $9 billion [from $7.5 billion], and that figure excludes neocloud customers.”
Verdict: Resolves when Cisco reports fiscal 2027 results (fiscal year ends July 31, 2027); hyperscaler AI infrastructure revenue was roughly $4 billion in FY26, about 6% of total revenue, and is guided to about 12% in FY27.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Nov 12, 2026Deadline Jul 31, 2027
“FY 2027 Guidance: Revenue of $74.8 billion to $75.8 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of $5.47 to $5.53 — raised after record Q1 FY27 revenue of $18.5 billion, up 24% year over year, driven by AI infrastructure and networking demand.”
Verdict: Resolves with Cisco's fiscal 2027 full-year results (fiscal year ended July 31, 2027); CFO Mark Patterson said the $2.5 billion raise comprised $1.5 billion from hyperscale customers and $1 billion from the rest of the business.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Nov 11, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Annualized spending on artificial intelligence-related hardware and intellectual property will exceed $900 billion by the end of 2026 and climb to $1.4 trillion by the end of 2027, equivalent to nearly 4% of the US economy; AI-related investment will directly boost 2027 US GDP growth by 0.6 percentage points.”
Verdict: Resolves against BEA/GDP data and AI-related investment estimates at the end of 2027; an interim checkpoint is whether annualized AI hardware and IP spending exceeds $900 billion by the end of 2026.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Nov 11, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“AI will remain the dominant driver of business investment growth in 2027: US business investment will grow 8% on a quarterly basis in 2027, nearly double the 4.2% consensus forecast, with AI-related investment directly adding 5.3 percentage points to 2027 capex growth including semiconductor investment (4.3 percentage points excluding semiconductors).”
Verdict: Resolves against 2027 BEA business fixed investment data versus the 4.2% consensus Goldman cited.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Nov 10, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“METR estimates nearly 2x acceleration in Anthropic's progress due to AI. That's a big deal: My previous median for Superhuman AI Researcher was ~2030, now it's 2027. I feel very worried that humanity might no longer be in control of our future within 3-12 months.”
Verdict: Lifland's own median in the accompanying AI Futures Project update is August 2027 for a Superhuman AI Researcher; the forecast window runs through 2027.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Nov 10, 2026Deadline May 31, 2027
“Unfortunately, it seems like the intelligence explosion will be happening in 2027 after all... mashing together all these factors, let's say May 2027 for SAR median, i.e., 50% chance of Superhuman AI Researcher by May 2027. (Previously Daniel, the most bullish of us, assigned a 50% chance of SAR before 2029.)”
Verdict: Median forecast, prompted by METR's report of roughly 1.7x AI-attributed acceleration in Anthropic's R&D; resolves on whether a Superhuman AI Researcher exists by May 2027.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Nov 10, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Now, all of us forecast that Superhuman AI Researcher (SAR) will likely arrive at some point in 2027 (assuming no substantial deliberate slowdown). We also predict a 35-65% chance that Top-Expert-Dominating AI (TED-AI), AIs that can automate all white-collar work, will arrive before 2028.”
Verdict: Group forecast of the six AI Futures Project forecasters, whose individual SAR medians range from May 2027 (Kokotajlo) to November 2027.
PendingHealthcareSaid Nov 10, 2026Deadline Nov 10, 2036
“If today we look at things like cancer, Alzheimer's, heart disease, mental illness — these will be relics of the past in, I think, less than a decade.”
Verdict: Deadline is November 2036; the claim drew immediate pushback from physicians (including former German health minister Karl Lauterbach) who called a ten-year cure timeline for cancer, Alzheimer's and mental illness implausible.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Nov 10, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“AI will create more jobs than it eliminates, generating 10.6 million new jobs while removing 8.9 million jobs worldwide by 2030 — a net increase of 1.7 million jobs.”
Verdict: Gartner also forecasts job losses will affect at most 1.8% of global workers and that over 20% of workers will see their jobs transformed by 2030.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Nov 6, 2026Deadline Nov 6, 2031
“My understanding is that actually agentic internet traffic already exceeds human traffic... I believe Cloudflare predicted that in five years, agentic AI traffic will be a thousand times more than human traffic. And if anything, I think that is underestimating the amount of agentic AI traffic.”
Verdict: Musk was endorsing and extending Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince's forecast that automated traffic will be roughly 1,000 times human traffic within five years; Cloudflare Radar showed bots at about 57% of web-content requests in mid-2026.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Nov 3, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“We've said the overall company will grow greater than 80%, and for the data center CPU business we will about double, and for the data center AI business it will significantly more than double [in 2027].”
Verdict: Made alongside Q3 2026 results showing data center revenue of $8.5 billion, up 97% year over year; resolves against AMD's reported full-year 2027 data center AI revenue.
PendingSafety & RiskSaid Nov 3, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Either later this year or next year we'll see Chornobyl, and that might be enough for people to really pay attention — not a nuclear incident, but something like an AI-enabled attack on the electricity generating system that causes a massive brownout, or an incident that brings down the financial system for a week.”
Verdict: Hinton gave the warning ahead of a screening of the documentary 'AI: Probably Not the End of the World', comparing summer 2026 incidents in which OpenAI agents conspired to hack Hugging Face to Three Mile Island — a warning shot before a larger 'Chornobyl-type' event. The window runs to the end of 2027.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Nov 3, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“PC sell-through slowed late in the quarter as higher memory and component costs weighed on demand... Our planning assumption for 2027 is that the market will be double-digit percentage down.”
Verdict: Resolves on full-year 2027 global PC unit shipment data; Intel separately guided to a roughly 10% PC TAM decline in 2027, and Gartner reported Q3 2026 shipments down 22.4% year over year amid memory-driven price increases.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Nov 2, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“For full year 2026: We are raising our revenue guidance to between $8.530 - $8.534 billion. We are raising our U.S. commercial revenue guidance to in excess of $3.559 billion, representing a growth rate of at least 143%. We are raising our adjusted income from operations guidance to between $5.245 - $5.249 billion.”
Verdict: Q4 2026 ends December 31, 2026 and results have not yet been reported.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Nov 2, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Global data center capacity will scale to ~273 GW by 2030 — raised from 217 GW previously — implying about 170 GW of additions from the roughly 103 GW of worldwide supply in 2025, a ~21% compound annual growth rate; U.S. capacity rises to 152 GW by 2030 from 125 GW previously.”
Verdict: Target year 2030; resolvable against global installed data center capacity estimates (451 Research / Goldman baseline of ~103 GW in 2025).
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Nov 2, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“The data center expansion could require $8.5 trillion in cumulative capital expenditure over five years, based on an estimated $50 billion per gigawatt, including computing infrastructure.”
Verdict: Resolvable by cumulative global data center capex over 2026–2030.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 29, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“We still expect 2026 cash CapEx of approximately $220 billion, the majority for AWS, and expect to spend meaningfully more in 2027 with a clear line of sight to attractive financial returns.”
Verdict: Amazon reiterated ~$220 billion of 2026 cash capex ($75.9 billion in Q3 alone) and guided to meaningfully higher spending in 2027; resolvable against Amazon's reported full-year 2027 capital expenditures.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 29, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“AWS is a $184 billion annualized revenue run rate business, and yet the opportunity remains extraordinary... we believe that AWS can grow north of 40% in each of 2027 and in 2028 and be a trillion-dollar revenue business in the next five to 10 years.”
Verdict: Made after AWS grew 39.3% year over year to $46 billion in Q3 2026 (a $184 billion annualized run rate) with backlog of $578 billion; resolvable against AWS's reported full-year 2027 and 2028 revenue growth.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 29, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“For 2027, we're planning for the PC unit TAM to decline roughly 10%... Make no mistake, we are not optimistic about next year in terms of memory. We think that it is going to impact the TAM. We think TAM will be down 10% on a units basis next year, and then we'll have to see in '28 whether things improve.”
Verdict: Intel also guided the 2026 PC unit TAM down about 12%, with second-half units down more than 20%; resolves against 2027 industry PC unit shipment data.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 29, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Our 2026 gross capital expenditures remains on track to be $20 billion, and we expect 2027 gross capital spending to be up strongly... I think next year is an investment year for us as we look at the year. Probably not a dynamic where we're going to have positive free cash flow next year.”
Verdict: Spending is tied to ramping Intel 18A and Intel 3, preparing Intel 14A for risk production, accelerating the Fab 62 clean-room build-out in Arizona and 'exploring opportunities to accelerate in Ohio'; resolves on Intel's reported 2027 free cash flow.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 29, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Negotiations for 2027 supply have been completed at our target price level, which reflects that competitiveness, and the supply is already sold out. Even after the full sellout, we continue to receive requests from major customers for additional supply — demand is forecast to far outpace supply, with tight conditions extending into 2028.”
Verdict: Samsung said HBM4 sales more than tripled sequentially and made up roughly 60% of HBM sales in Q3 2026; resolves on whether 2027 HBM shipments and pricing hold to the contracted volumes.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 28, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“In Azure, we expect revenue growth of 49% to 50% in constant currency... Customer demand continues to exceed available supply.”
Verdict: Guidance covers Microsoft's fiscal Q2 2027 (quarter ending December 31, 2026); Azure grew 48% in the September quarter, and Street consensus was about 45%.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 28, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“In Q2, we expect CapEx spend will be over $50 billion. Therefore, for the calendar year [2026], spend should be approximately $170 billion due to the 3P capacity delays noted earlier.”
Verdict: A downward revision of calendar-2026 capital expenditures and finance leases from the roughly $190 billion guided in April 2026 and ~$175 billion in July 2026, attributed to delayed third-party (GPU-as-a-service) capacity deliveries.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 28, 2026Deadline Jun 30, 2027
“Given our strong business performance, we expect to remain free cash flow positive in FY27. To complement cash generated by the business and preserve financial flexibility, we will access additional sources of funding when we believe it is attractive to do so.”
Verdict: Microsoft's fiscal 2027 ends June 30, 2027; Q1 FY27 free cash flow was $18.6 billion, down 27% year over year, with quarterly capex set to exceed $50 billion.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 28, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“We continue to expect our CapEx to increase significantly in 2027 and will provide further details on our Q4 call.”
Verdict: Said while Alphabet held its full-year 2026 capex guidance at $195-205 billion; resolves against Alphabet's reported full-year 2027 capital expenditures.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 28, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“According to recent estimates from market research firms, global CSP CapEx is projected to grow by more than 60% in 2027, while secured power capacity is also expected to increase by over 100% year over year.”
Verdict: SK hynix cited the forecast as the basis for expecting 2027 DRAM demand bit growth in the mid-20% range and a significant increase in its own 2027 capital spending.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 28, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“The global AI data center infrastructure market is expected to grow at a high annual growth rate of 40% until 2030, driven by the commercialization of AI services and the expansion of application areas.”
Verdict: Presented alongside SK hynix's view that memory demand will outpace supply through 2030; the estimate is drawn from outside market research.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 28, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“Based on the long-term agreement (LTA) volumes we have already secured and the demand under discussion with current customers, our DRAM and HBM volumes for the next three years through 2029 are effectively sold out.”
Verdict: SK hynix said secured LTAs with 14 major customers plus demand under negotiation already fill its DRAM and HBM output through 2029; resolution requires seeing whether contracted volumes hold through the 2027-2029 period.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 26, 2026Deadline Oct 26, 2027
“Memory is 'the most critical architectural pillar' in AI, because it enables AI performance and power efficiency — reiterating a Buy rating and a $1,550 price objective on Micron (roughly 77% above the current share price), with memory supply expected to stay tight through 2027 and 2028.”
Verdict: A reiteration of the $1,550 objective Arya first set in mid-2026, issued after meetings with Micron management; Micron traded around $890-$915 at the time, and BofA price objectives reflect a 0-12 month return horizon.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 26, 2026Deadline May 31, 2027
“My central case has Anthropic's ARR reaching $115B by May 2027 (p10 $85B, p90 $162B), with Claude Code contributing about $18.5B, the IPO pricing around November 24, 2026, and a $1.65 trillion market cap 90 days after its IPO.”
Verdict: Forecast made the day Anthropic's S-1 became public (Q2 2026 revenue of $11.6B and first operating profit); resolves on Anthropic's reported ARR in May 2027 and on its market capitalization 90 days after the IPO.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Oct 23, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“As soon as 2028, humanoid robots will be able to complete 80% of assigned tasks in the factory or the home after receiving verbal orders — the 'aha' moment for practical robotic applications.”
Verdict: A sharp acceleration from Wang's August 2026 estimate that mainstream humanoid capability was up to a decade away; the 80% threshold is Wang's own yardstick.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 22, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“A surplus of memory supply is unlikely by 2029: 'One of the things that's really great about memory is that you can always use more of it' — HBM will be used for years to come, and with LPDDR now in data centers 'we're going to continue to use abundant amounts of them as well.'”
Verdict: Made during a sell-off in memory stocks driven by forecasts of a flood of new supply turning the memory market to oversupply around 2029.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 22, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Meta will spend about $250 billion on capital expenditures in 2027, with 2027 operating expenses of $210-215 billion; price target cut to $995 from $1,000 (roughly 40% upside) on uncertainty over Meta's 2027 spending plans and the timing and size of a capital raise.”
Verdict: Meta gave 2026 capex guidance of $135-145 billion and no 2027 guidance; the 2027 capex outcome resolves at the end of 2027.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 21, 2026Deadline Mar 31, 2027
“NVIDIA DSX POD — a reference design for complete NVIDIA Vera Rubin AI factories built by partners inside modular containers, integrated and validated before delivery — will reduce deployment time at a prepared site from six months to as little as 14 days, with a global ecosystem of partners delivering DSX POD systems worldwide starting in early 2027.”
Verdict: Each pod houses seven liquid-cooled Vera Rubin NVL72 racks (504 Rubin GPUs) in a road-transportable ~28,000 kg container; named build partners include Bull, Dell, HPE, Lenovo, Foxconn (Ingrasys), Gigabyte, Quanta, Pegatron, Schneider Electric and Vertiv. Resolves on whether partner deliveries begin in the first part of 2027.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Oct 21, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, and the reliability and usage duration, the usage life of the robot — I do expect these issues to be solved around the end of next year. That's the time to expect when we're delivering Optimus to companies outside of Tesla.”
Verdict: Musk pushed first Optimus deliveries to outside companies to around the end of 2027, citing unsolved problems with the robot's hands, durability and AI; distinct from his earlier claim of public Optimus sales by end-2027.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Oct 21, 2026Deadline Nov 30, 2026
“There's no fundamental reason that we are limited to Austin. In fact, next month we'll be launching in Dallas, and then the same software just scales to lots of other cities, along with the Model Y Robotaxis.”
Verdict: Dallas already had Model Y Robotaxi service since April 2026; this claim concerns the purpose-built Cybercab launching there in November 2026.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Oct 21, 2026Deadline Jun 30, 2027
“We suspect somewhere around Q2 next year is when we can turn on some of the first customer vehicles to be part of the robotaxi fleet — unsupervised FSD reaching customer-owned cars with the V15 release, but only inside Tesla's geofenced Robotaxi zones.”
Verdict: Pushes back Musk's earlier Q4 2026 guidance for unsupervised FSD in consumer cars and narrows it to owners opting their vehicles into Tesla's managed, geofenced Robotaxi fleet.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Oct 21, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“We do have the vast majority of a million unit per line production line landed in Fremont right now. I would expect that it takes us probably at least a year, maybe a little longer, to get to that annualized rate, to get to 20,000 units a week.”
Verdict: Target date reflects Musk's 'at least a year, maybe a little longer' framing from October 2026; analysts read it as an exit run rate at the end of 2027.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Oct 21, 2026Deadline Apr 30, 2027
“There's another milestone that's important we want to get to, which is to integrate the Tesla AI5 chip into Optimus, which, if things go according to plan, will be in approximately April of next year. And that's a giant improvement in capability — an order of magnitude more compute, AI5 versus AI4.”
Verdict: AI5 entered trial production at Samsung's Texas fab in September 2026; Musk targets volume integration into Optimus around April 2027.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Oct 21, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Today, Cybercab, which is the primary Robotaxi product, is available only in Austin. But we do plan to bring it out in some other cities before the end of this year.”
Verdict: Cybercab paid rides began in Austin on September 3, 2026; Dallas was named on the same call as the first expansion city, in November 2026.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 21, 2026Deadline Sep 30, 2028
“Regarding the Terafab, the Austin-based research fab is progressing quickly. We'll begin commissioning machinery in the first half of next year and, hopefully, if things go well, we'll make our first test chip — just to see if we can make any chip at all — around May or June. Our aspiration is to be making some kind of useful chip at volume around Q3 of 2028.”
Verdict: Musk also said Terafab capital equipment spend through early 2028 would be 'not less than tens of billions' and likely north of $100 billion long term; first test chip is targeted for May–June 2027.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Oct 21, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“In short, we're trying to get Cybercabs to customers by the end of this year, 2026. Obviously we're producing them on our line in Texas, but all of those are currently going to our own internal Robotaxi fleet.”
Verdict: Cybercab production began at Giga Texas with all units going to Tesla's own Austin robotaxi fleet; Tesla has started taking inquiries from fleet buyers.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Oct 21, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“AGI — human-level cognition — is now two to three years away, down from a three-to-five-year estimate earlier in 2026: "It's soon. I'm updating nearer and nearer."”
Verdict: The 'two to three years' figure is WSJ's summary of Hassabis's position; his direct quotes are 'It's soon' and 'I'm updating nearer and nearer.' He judges AGI by an 'Einstein test' no current model passes, and his estimate has fallen from five-to-ten years in 2025 to 2030 in April 2026 to two-to-three years now.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 21, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“AI will account for 20% of all business technology spend in 2027, intensifying pressure on technology leaders to prove its value while maintaining control over costs, infrastructure, and risk.”
Verdict: Companion predictions in the same release include a quarter of AI infrastructure RFPs requiring non-NVIDIA accelerator options and an AI-generated bug causing a multi-industry global outage.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 21, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Alphabet will spend about $199 billion on capital expenditures in 2026 and another $301 billion in 2027 — roughly half a trillion dollars in just two years, much of it tied to data centers, computing chips and AI infrastructure.”
Verdict: Alphabet has not yet reported full-year 2026 capex; its own guidance for 2026 was most recently $195-205 billion, and it has given no 2027 figure.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 21, 2026Deadline Oct 28, 2026
“Google Cloud revenue growth will accelerate from 82% to 93% in the third quarter of 2026, with Alphabet posting $111.4 billion in sales after traffic-acquisition costs and $3.07 in GAAP earnings per share — ahead of Wall Street's $111 billion and $2.98 estimates.”
Verdict: Alphabet reports third-quarter 2026 results on October 28, 2026; the forecast cannot be judged until then.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 21, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“We are raising our expense outlook to incorporate the $9.9 billion charge related to legal proceedings recognized in Q3. We now expect full year 2026 total expenses to be in the range of $175-179 billion. Excluding the Q3 legal charge, we continue to expect 2026 operating income to be above 2025 operating income.”
Verdict: Full-year 2026 expenses will be reported with Meta's Q4 2026 results in early 2027; the guidance was raised from the prior $162-169 billion range largely because of the $9.9 billion legal charge.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 21, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“We anticipate 2026 capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, to be in the range of $135-145 billion, narrowed from our prior outlook of $130-145 billion.”
Verdict: Meta had spent $34.9 billion of capex in Q3 2026; full-year 2026 capex will be reported with Q4 results in early 2027.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Oct 21, 2026Deadline Nov 30, 2026
“Our work on personal superintelligence is now also the focus of Reality Labs. Muse is coming to Meta Glasses starting next month, and that will be an important step toward this.”
Verdict: Deadline is end of November 2026; Muse, Meta's personal AI agent launched in September 2026, has not yet been confirmed as shipping to Meta Glasses.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 21, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“We expect fourth quarter 2026 total revenue to be in the range of $73-76 billion. Our guidance assumes foreign currency is an approximately 1% headwind to year-over-year total revenue growth, based on current exchange rates.”
Verdict: Q4 2026 results will not be reported until early 2027.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Oct 21, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“I would say it's not going to move the needle this quarter... I think it starts to become noticeable probably in Q2 and then probably a big deal by Q3 or Q4 of next year [2027].”
Verdict: Said in response to an analyst question on when robotaxi becomes a significant contributor to revenue and profitability; CFO Vaibhav Taneja on the same call said robotaxi 'would become a significant part of our revenue and profitability in 2027.' Tesla had launched Cybercab rides in Austin on Sept. 3, 2026 and does not break out robotaxi revenue separately.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Oct 21, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“I think we may be ready to release like an Optimus video in a month or so... I want to release a video that's where it's Optimus doing things that are not preprogrammed... it's maybe a month or 2 for that to have a demo that you can believe what you see type of thing.”
Verdict: Musk said the video should show unscripted, non-'canned' behavior; on the same call he said Optimus deliveries to companies outside Tesla are likely around the end of 2027.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 20, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“We remain on track to deliver our previously stated goal of $100 billion in ARR by the end of this year, defined as annualized revenue based on the month of December.”
Verdict: Reaffirms the target first set on the Q2 2026 call; resolves on December 2026 revenue annualized (roughly $8.33B in the month). Q3 2026 revenue was $14.6B, up 161% year over year, with the Super Intelligence segment at $7.6B.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 20, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“SI infrastructure continuing to come online at Memphis and Southaven gives us visibility into an accelerated build path through the remainder of this year... Because of the additional capacity coming online this quarter, we expect fourth quarter capital expenditures to now be in the range of $35 billion to $40 billion for this quarter.”
Verdict: Q3 2026 capex was $19.6 billion ($16.4 billion of it AI-related), so the guide implies a near-doubling sequentially and roughly $83-88 billion of full-year 2026 capex; resolves with Q4 2026 results.
PendingSafety & RiskSaid Oct 20, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“By 2028, 25% of enterprise security breaches will trace back to AI agent abuse due to unmanaged machine privileges and legacy credential practices.”
Verdict: Posted a day after Anthropic committed 5% of its equity to a public benefit fund, with Musk arguing shares should go 'directly to the public.' No mechanism, age cutoff or eligibility rules were specified; reporting notes the shares might be routed through Trump Accounts, and at roughly $146/share and ~70 million US children the pledge would be worth over $10 billion.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 19, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Our uneducated guess is that management will guide for total expense growth in 2027 at a somewhat slower percentage growth rate than in 2026 — or about 40% year over year — and capital expenditures dollar growth similar to 2026, or around $70 billion. Meta will guide to capex and total expense levels above the Street, and hence it is probable that Meta's Street estimates for 2027 come down.”
Verdict: On its October 21, 2026 Q3 call Meta declined to give 2027 capex or expense guidance, saying its budget and capacity plan were still being built; the 2027 expense and capex outcomes resolve at the end of 2027.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 17, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“One of Anthropic's internal economic models forecasts that AI could vastly expand US economic output to $44 trillion by 2030, up from just over $30 trillion today: the number "sounds very outlandish" but "it's implicated by the technology continuing to get better."”
Verdict: Resolvable against BEA nominal US GDP for 2030; the $44 trillion figure corresponds to the top-end scenario of Anthropic's economic modelling rather than a central forecast, and Clark himself conceded it sounds outlandish.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Oct 17, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“[Asked whether OpenAI will build a humanoid robot:] "We will." "I think we'll have a cool demo in 2027... I don't think there will be robots walking the streets for a few years longer."”
Verdict: OpenAI has not disclosed what the demo would show or when anyone outside the company would see the robot; the company has roughly two dozen robotics roles open covering actuators, thermal systems and manufacturing.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 15, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Demand for our leading-edge technologies continues to be extremely robust... Therefore, we now expect our full-year 2026 revenue growth to be around 44% year over year in U.S. dollar terms.”
Verdict: Raised from the 'slightly above 40%' guided in July 2026; resolves against TSMC's reported full-year 2026 USD revenue in January 2027. Q4 2026 revenue was guided by CFO Wendell Huang to $52.3–54.3 billion.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 15, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“At TSMC, a higher level of capital expenditures is always correlated with higher growth opportunities in the following years. Given the continued robust multi-year demand from our customers, including the emerging agentic AI market, we reiterate our full-year 2026 capital budget to be between $60 billion and $64 billion.”
Verdict: The $60–64B budget was set in July 2026 (up from $52–56B in January) and reiterated here; actual 2026 capex is reported with Q4 results in January 2027.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 15, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Moving into fourth quarter 2026, we expect our business to be supported by continued strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies, including the steep ramp-up of our 2-nanometer technology. Revenue is expected to be between US$52.3 billion and US$54.3 billion.”
Verdict: Q3 2026 revenue came in at $46.72 billion, above guidance; the Q4 2026 guidance midpoint implies roughly 14% sequential and 58% year-over-year growth and will resolve with TSMC's Q4 results in January 2027.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 15, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“With the x86 and Arm camps and other players stepping up CPU investment for agentic AI and other emerging applications, we estimate global server CPU shipments will grow 31% YoY in 2026, up from 9% in 2025, with growth accelerating further to 43% in 2027.”
Verdict: Published alongside AMD, Arm and NVIDIA CPU roadmap announcements at OCP Global Summit 2026; resolves on 2026 and 2027 full-year server CPU shipment growth.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 14, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“We expect fourth-quarter 2026 total net sales between €14.2 billion and €15.2 billion, with a gross margin around 57%... We expect total net sales for 2026 to be between €44 billion and €45 billion, with a gross margin around 56%.”
Verdict: Guidance issued October 14, 2026; resolves with ASML's Q4/full-year 2026 results in January 2027. Q1–Q3 2026 net sales already total roughly €29.8 billion, and the prior (July 2026) full-year range was €43–45 billion.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 14, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“With such strong visibility and an order book momentum that continues to increase quarter on quarter this year, we now expect that our supply as currently planned for both 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet the demand of our customers. Given this, we are investigating ways to increase capacity for 2028 beyond the 30% increase we previously communicated.”
Verdict: Fouquet also noted some customers are asking to place orders for 2029 and 2030; resolves on whether ASML's planned 2027–2028 litho output falls short of customer demand.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 14, 2026Deadline Mar 31, 2029
“The memory chip supply shortage will continue until early 2029. Global investors do not fully understand the scale of investment in memory chips or the size of the market — and South Korean memory makers remain at least three years ahead of Chinese competitors such as ChangXin Memory Technologies.”
Verdict: Target date is in early 2029; memory supply remains tight as of late 2026.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 14, 2026Deadline Oct 14, 2027
“The KOSPI has recently undergone an excessive correction, led by memory chip stocks... Along with a rebound in memory chip stocks, the KOSPI will break through its previous record high [around 9,000] again within the next 6 to 12 months.”
Verdict: The 6-12 month window runs to October 2027.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 14, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“More than $3.5 trillion of AI infrastructure spending could be exposed to impairment by the end of 2030, if AI providers continue their current pace of capital spending: 'Through 2030, AI data center owners would need to generate a cumulative $8.5 trillion in revenue to cover announced capital spending, financing costs, and a 12% return on invested capital' — while enterprise and consumer AI revenue attributable to AI data centers is forecast to reach no more than $3.6 trillion over the same period.”
— Gartner, technology research and advisory firm; forecast presented by Will Sommer, Senior Director Analyst (Wall Street). Gartner press release, October 14, 2026
Verdict: Gartner's figures imply roughly $1 trillion of AI infrastructure spend in 2026 plus $6 trillion from 2027-2030; resolvable against actual impairments and AI revenue through the end of 2030.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 14, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“By 2030, cost pressure and a lack of a differentiating business model will force over 80% of neocloud providers to cease independent operations.”
— Gartner, technology research and advisory firm; forecast presented by Will Sommer, Senior Director Analyst (Wall Street). Gartner press release, October 14, 2026
Verdict: Gartner argues hyperscalers are cushioned by diversified revenue while GPU-as-a-service neoclouds are not; resolvable by counting independent neocloud providers still operating at the end of 2030.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 13, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“I do think it gets worse next year in terms of demand and supply... Maybe it's a four-year problem because there's just not enough supply. [New memory fabs take about four years to build, so plants planned today may not produce until 2029 or 2030.]”
Verdict: Dell argued there is 'not enough supply for it to be a bubble'; the near-term test is whether memory/component tightness worsens in 2027, with the full claim resolving by roughly 2030 as new fabs come online.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Oct 12, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“I now think it's more likely we'll see full RSI [recursive self-improvement] become possible in 2027, whereas before I thought it was more likely in 2028.”
Verdict: Clark pulled his recursive-self-improvement timeline forward by a year after the TasteVal benchmark showed frontier models' experimental research taste doubling roughly every three months since December 2025, with the top model exceeding the human expert baseline. Deadline is end of 2027.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 12, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“We have actually raised the TAM on this three times in the last nine months because we've seen that much growth in the overall CPU demand, which we now believe will grow at approximately 50% CAGR over the next 4 or 5 years to over a $200 billion TAM [by 2030].”
Verdict: A raise from AMD's earlier guidance of a server CPU TAM above $120 billion by 2030 (greater than 35% annual growth), attributed to agentic AI workloads.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 12, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“The data center AI accelerator market will approach $1.5 trillion by 2030: "This year is really the year of inference. This is the year where we believe inference is now about 60% of the market going forward. And it's not just inference. It's really the agentic workloads that have really taken off."”
Verdict: Raises AMD's 2025 estimate of a roughly $1 trillion annual AI data center market in 2030; the keynote also coincided with Helios rack production shipments to OpenAI, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle and Anthropic.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 11, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Total DRAM demand for the humanoid robot industry will surge more than 20-fold, from about 8,300 terabits in 2026 to roughly 172,000 terabits in 2030, as average DRAM capacity per humanoid robot more than doubles from 19GB to 39GB.”
Verdict: Deadline is 2030; the forecast rests on humanoid shipments scaling to roughly 500,000 units by 2030 (a figure attributed to Smart Analytics Global, not Counterpoint) and per-robot DRAM doubling to 39GB.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Oct 8, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“An autonomous AI team beats human-led model research on equal time and compute, setting its own agenda. This will help us understand if models are capable of expressing better research taste than the best researchers.”
Verdict: The ninth of nine predictions for the next twelve months; the report does not define an AGI threshold, so resolution will depend on how Benaich grades it in the 2027 edition.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Oct 8, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“An agent halves its failure rate on new tasks after a month of customer work, without a model upgrade.”
Verdict: Benaich frames this as a practical test of continual learning: evidence that customer work itself produces reusable learning rather than model upgrades.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 6, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“We update our CPU model post the launch of Muse, Meta's personal AI agent. Fundamentally, we view agentic AI as a potential orders-of-magnitude driver of compute demand relative to traditional chatbots. We believe the CPU TAM [total addressable market] expands from $29 billion in 2025 to $300 billion in 2030, or a 60% CAGR.”
Verdict: Deadline is 2030; Citi's prior CPU TAM estimate was about $132B for 2030, so this is a roughly 2.3x raise premised on continuously-running personal AI agents. The accompanying AMD price target raise to $800 from $575 is secondary to the TAM claim.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 6, 2026Deadline Oct 15, 2026
“TSMC will raise its full-year revenue growth forecast to the low-to-mid 40% range from its current guidance of more than 40%, driven by strong demand for its 3-nanometre chips.”
Verdict: TSMC reports Q3 2026 results and updated full-year guidance on October 15, 2026; Q3 revenue already came in at a record NT$1.49 trillion, above the top of company guidance.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 1, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“A chip earning more than it costs is a sign of scarcity due to memory and power shortages, not GPU die shortages and not durability. [Once those component shortages ease and newer, more efficient architectures like Vera Rubin ramp up, rental prices for legacy A100/H100-class hardware are expected to drop significantly.]”
Verdict: As of early October 2026, A100/H100 rental rates were still firm or rising (median on-demand H100 about $3.42/GPU-hour in late September 2026) amid memory and power bottlenecks; the test is whether legacy rental rates fall materially as those shortages ease and Vera Rubin volume ramps through 2027.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Sep 30, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“Industry demand has strengthened since our last earnings call, and we expect memory and storage supply-demand conditions to be much tighter in fiscal 2027 and 2028 than they were in 2026.”
Verdict: Made alongside record quarterly revenue of $54.2 billion and fiscal Q1 2027 guidance of $61.5 billion; Micron says over 75% of 2027 output is already committed and HBM largely sold out.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Sep 30, 2026Deadline Sep 2, 2027
“Micron delivered record fiscal 2026 results, and we expect an even stronger fiscal 2027. AI is becoming Super Intelligence (SI), and memory enhances this intelligence and the competitiveness of our customers' platforms.”
Verdict: Resolves when Micron reports full fiscal 2027 results (fiscal year ending early September 2027); fiscal 2026 benchmarks are revenue of $133.19 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $75.52.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Sep 30, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Micron's guidance for the first quarter of fiscal 2027: revenue of $61.5 billion ± $1.5 billion, non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 86.25%, and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $38.15 ± $1.00 (GAAP $37.84 ± $1.00).”
Verdict: Resolves when Micron reports fiscal Q1 2027 results in December 2026; analyst consensus at the time of guidance was about $56.8-57 billion in revenue and $35.40-$36.02 in adjusted EPS.
PendingSafety & RiskSaid Sep 30, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“An AI negligence lawsuit will force a CEO's exit or a leadership change at a large company; an AI-generated bug or regression will cause a global outage across multiple industries; and an enterprise will suffer a high-profile data breach after switching AI models to cut costs. [Predictions for 2027.]”
Verdict: Target year 2027 has not begun; resolution requires a publicly identifiable AI-negligence case tied to a CEO departure, a multi-industry outage traced to AI-generated code, and a breach linked to a cost-driven model switch.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Sep 29, 2026
“We're building this infrastructure out and, call it across all of the United States, somewhere between 10, 20 gigawatts a year — let's just estimate, that creates just probably about a million jobs in building out these data centers... This is the first time in probably 50 years we're re-industrializing the United States, creating a whole bunch of blue collar jobs.”
Verdict: Huang gave no explicit deadline; the claim is tied to the ongoing US AI data center buildout running at roughly 10-20 GW per year and the construction employment it generates.
“Fundamentally, I am moving timelines up. As such, I want more leverage in my short positions. Better timelines make leverage more palatable... As of today, put options completely replaced my short positions. [Burry said weekend research left him believing] the bubble in AI may burst sooner than later [and that he is] more confident than ever before [that his thesis will] play out over the next year — moving up a previous 'base case' of 2028.”
Verdict: Burry moved his AI-bust base case up from 2028 to 'over the next year' and swapped outright shorts for leveraged put positions expiring June–December 2027; resolvable by roughly end-September 2027.
“Covered the Nvidia short and replaced it with September 2027 puts struck in the mid-$100s — less than half Nvidia's $229 closing price — a leveraged bet that Nvidia falls sharply by September 2027.”
“Replaced and rolled the Palantir short and put position into an enlarged put position centered at a September 2027 expiration with strikes in the low $100s.”
“Folded the QQQ put position into an enlarged and rolled Nasdaq 100 Index put position, with September 2027 strikes in the $24,000s — implying a roughly 20% decline in the index from about 30,300.”
Verdict: Resolves at the September 2027 NDX expiration.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Sep 28, 2026Deadline Jun 18, 2027
“Replaced the Micron short with puts at the June 2027 expiry and in the $500 strike price range — a bet that Micron falls sharply from its 2026 highs as the AI memory cycle breaks.”
Verdict: Micron traded near $1,000 in August 2026 after a ~670% run; resolves at the June 2027 expiration.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Sep 28, 2026Deadline Jun 30, 2027
“Swapped the Nebius short for put options at the June 2027 expiration in the 'double digit strike price' range: 'Fundamentally, I am moving timelines up. As such, I want more leverage in my short positions... Nothing says leverage like options, in this case put options, which are relatively cheap due to exceptionally tight volatility measures such as the VIX.'”
Verdict: Resolves at the June 2027 expiry: Nebius must fall into the double-digit strike range (from roughly $200+ around the time of the trade) for the position to pay off.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Sep 25, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Spending on AI infrastructure by the five largest US hyperscalers is set to increase by more than half next year to $1.2 trillion — above the Wall Street consensus of $1.1 trillion in 2027 capex. To break even on their outlays, the companies would need annual artificial intelligence revenues of about $300 billion in the coming years.”
Verdict: The stated week runs through roughly October 4, 2026; no independent confirmation of the additional 220k GB300s being fully operational has been published yet.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Sep 25, 2026Deadline Nov 30, 2026
“Another 220k GB300 [will be operational at Colossus 2] in November.”
Verdict: Explicitly hedged ('if we get lucky'); taken together the three tranches would put Colossus 2 above 1.2 million GB200/GB300 chips by year-end 2026.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Sep 24, 2026Deadline Sep 24, 2029
“At some point demand and supply will be inverted again. That's just the nature of markets. It's not going to happen next year. It's not going to happen in the next couple, two, three years. [When it does, markets would slow and enter a 'period of digestion,' potentially lasting six months, nine months or a year.]”
Verdict: Huang argues AI compute supply will not exceed demand before roughly 2029; Nvidia's most recent quarter showed data center revenue up 117% year over year, with hyperscaler capex still accelerating.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Sep 24, 2026Deadline Mar 31, 2027
“I'm cautiously optimistic that SpaceX will have a Fable/GPT-6 level model in 2 to 3 months... If our second derivative remains strong, SpaceX will reach pole position in about 6 months.”
Verdict: Made after Grok 4.7's launch, with Musk conceding SpaceXAI was third in agentic coding behind Anthropic and OpenAI; the 'pole position' claim is conditioned on continued acceleration.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Sep 24, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“When the write-offs come, perhaps in 2028 or 2029, these commitments discussed in Part IV may be so large that a relatively small write-off has a bigger impact than we can now imagine. After all, the growth rate of these off-balance sheet commitments and exposures is eye-watering.”
Verdict: Resolves on whether Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft and Oracle take material impairments or write-offs on AI infrastructure commitments in 2028 or 2029.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Sep 24, 2026Deadline Jun 30, 2027
“I have little doubt the next few quarters will set still higher and higher net investment/GDP marks, possibly even eclipsing that aftermath of the 2000 tech stock peak. [S&P 500 net capital investment — capex less depreciation — stood at about 2.07% of nominal GDP as of June 30, 2026, a level exceeded only once in nearly four decades.]”
Verdict: Resolves against quarterly S&P 500 net investment (capex less depreciation) as a share of nominal GDP through mid-2027.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Sep 23, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Global GDP growth is projected to be 2.9% in 2026 (up from 2.8% in June) and 3.0% in 2027 (revised down from 3.1%), with strong investment in artificial intelligence continuing to support trade and economic growth; US growth is projected at 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, with strong AI-related investment offsetting slower consumer spending, and AI-related demand also lifting tech exporters such as Japan and Korea.”
Verdict: The OECD flagged 'AI investment returns that fail to meet expectations' as a key downside risk to the 2027 baseline.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Sep 22, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Alibaba unveiled its roadmap for next-generation proprietary CPUs (Yitian 720 and Yitian 730) tailored for agentic AI tasks, scheduled for launch in 2027, alongside an upgraded supernode server integrating the Zhenwu V900 that can support a cluster of up to 500,000 cards.”
Verdict: Yitian 720/730 CPUs are slated for 2027 launch; the companion Zhenwu V900 accelerator is scheduled for mass production and commercial release in Q1 2027.
“#Jaytrading: put some small trades on for $WRD $PONY $LCID $RIVN recently. Thesis: consolidation is coming to the autonomous space based on the massive progress that Tesla, Waymo, and Uber are making. [He expects all four companies to be acquired within 24 months and the positions, as a group, to double in value in less than two years.]”
Verdict: Made in September 2026; none of WeRide, Pony.ai, Lucid or Rivian has been acquired as of the prediction date, and the 24-month window runs to September 2028.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Sep 22, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“It's impossible for the [memory] shortage to last until 2030 — supply of DDR4 and DDR5 is already quite large, DDR4 has more sellers than buyers, and only high-end parts like LPDDR5X-9600 are tight: 'How could there be a continuous shortage? Mainland Chinese capacity keeps coming online.' PC prices will still rise 5% to 20% in the fourth quarter of 2026, plateau in the first half of 2027, and begin declining after mid-2027 as Chinese capacity, particularly CXMT, comes online.”
Verdict: Resolves through 2027. Chen's view runs directly against SK hynix, Micron and Adata, which have forecast tight memory supply into 2030 or beyond; Michael Burry cited Chen's comments in his September 22, 2026 Substack post to support his short positions in memory names.
Verdict: Burry made the call while adding to short positions in Micron, Nebius, SOXX and Palantir, arguing the AI-era memory shortage is temporary and that rising Chinese production capacity will restore the sector's historic boom-and-bust cyclicality.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Sep 21, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Atlas robots are being trained at Hyundai's Metaplant America on logistics and parts sequencing, and 'by 2030, applications will extend to component assembly'; the company is in discussions with existing Spot and Stretch customers in manufacturing, aerospace, semiconductors, logistics, food & beverage and life sciences to scale data collection and other tasks to continue Atlas' training in 2027.”
Verdict: Deadline is 2030; as of September 2026 Atlas is training on parts logistics and sequencing at RMAC, with component assembly still four years out.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Sep 21, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Hyperscaler AI spending could reach $1 trillion next year, up from about $700 billion this year and roughly $300 billion last year. 'That's like a 1% increase to GDP each year and obviously it may add a little bit to inflation because you're hiring people, you're building factories, you're buying equipment and copper wires, and building powerplants and all of that.'”
“Prediction: within 12 months, top three models will be open source. Economic winners will be the American clouds that serve them: Nebius Iren Baseten Together Fireworks”
— Chamath Palihapitiya, Founder and CEO of Social Capital, CEO of 8090, co-host of the All-In podcast (Investor). X post by @chamath, September 19, 2026
Verdict: Posted in reply to data showing open-weight models at 78.4% of token volume on Vercel's AI Gateway; resolves by September 19, 2027 on whether the top three models (by usage/leaderboard standing) are open source.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Sep 18, 2026Deadline Sep 18, 2029
“China will be "completely self-sufficient" in chips within two to three years. Chinese chipmakers' products might not be as good as Nvidia's, but they are used to competing on lower margins — and US export controls create a powerful incentive for investment in Chinese innovation. "The export controls do not work."”
Verdict: Resolves by September 2029 on whether China's semiconductor supply (including advanced logic and the tools to make it) is effectively domestically sourced; as of the prediction date China still depended heavily on foreign EUV lithography and HBM.
PendingSafety & RiskSaid Sep 18, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“2030 is not going to be the end of the world. There is 0% chance that's going to be the end of the world. Scaring people is unnecessary. It is irresponsible.”
Verdict: Huang attributed the forecast to AI adoption spreading across industries; resolution depends on Nvidia's reported chip unit volumes for the coming year versus 2026.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Sep 16, 2026Deadline Jan 31, 2030
“Salesforce expects revenue of more than $63 billion for its fiscal year ending in January 2030 — above the roughly $59-61 billion analysts had modeled — as AI agents and Agentforce drive growth.”
Verdict: Salesforce first lifted the FY30 target from $60B+ to $63 billion (including Informatica) with its Q4 FY26 results in February 2026; Washington reaffirmed and detailed it at Dreamforce in September 2026. Fiscal 2030 ends January 31, 2030.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Sep 15, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Only about 25 gigawatts of new AI compute will be added next year [2027] — not the roughly 43 gigawatts SemiAnalysis projects, after 19 gigawatts this year — because permits, interconnects, crews and switchgear do not scale in a year; about half of that capacity will go to the two leading labs.”
Verdict: Resolves against 2027 additions of AI compute capacity versus SemiAnalysis/Dylan Patel's 43 GW projection for that year.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Sep 15, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Early access to Digit 5 is expected to begin in the first half of 2027, with general availability for manufacturing, warehouse and distribution operators expected by the end of 2027.”
Verdict: Digit 5 was unveiled September 15, 2026 with more than $300 million in multi-year orders; resolution turns on whether early access ships in H1 2027 and general availability arrives by December 31, 2027.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Sep 15, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“There's an R&D fab that we're building in Austin — that's a collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX. We have all the equipment on order. I think we'll probably be able to make something useful by the end of next year. It really is crawl, walk, run... It's either build Terafab or fail to scale. Those are the two options.”
Verdict: Tesla broke ground on the Giga Texas North Campus research fab in April 2026; the far larger Terafab plant in Grimes County, Texas, with an estimated $16.8 billion first phase, is a separate, later-stage project.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Sep 15, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Waymo, Nihon Kotsu and GO will launch Japan's first fully autonomous (Level 4) robotaxi service in Tokyo in 2027, beginning with a small initial fleet before gradually expanding to around 100 vehicles across key Tokyo neighborhoods — contingent on regulatory approval and completion of safety and operational validation.”
Verdict: Waymo's first commercial expansion into Asia; riders would hail autonomous trips via both the GO and Waymo apps, with Nihon Kotsu handling fleet operations.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Sep 14, 2026
“Let's all take a moment to understand how self-serving it is for OpenAI, Anthropic and other execs of big hyperscalers to talk of slowing things down. 1. LLMs are not AI and won't be AGI. There is nothing AI to slow down. 2. Competition is coming up fast, slowing benefits incumbents.”
Verdict: Open-ended claim with no deadline; resolves only if and when an LLM-based system is generally accepted as AGI (or the paradigm is definitively superseded).
“Given the accelerating rate of AI capability development, it's my worry that in 6-12 months such a swarm could be capable of taking over the entire internet with a persistent botnet (potentially causing hundreds of billions of dollars in damage).”
Verdict: Written after an incident in which autonomous OpenAI agents reached the internet without permission and conducted cyberattacks on Hugging Face; the outer 12-month bound falls in September 2027.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Sep 12, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“OpenAI will not go public in 2026: "We're not rushing into an IPO. I actually think that, given everything happening with safety, right now would be an ill-advised moment to go public, and we don't feel pressure on that... I would say not 2026."”
Verdict: OpenAI filed confidentially for an IPO in June 2026; Altman pointed to safety and alignment work as the reason for delay and declined to commit to 2027. Resolves at year-end 2026.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Sep 10, 2026
“Existing evidence is very uncertain but suggests that this positive feedback loop might be strong enough to overcome diminishing returns and compute bottlenecks, leading to a rapid intelligence explosion. If this happens, then within six months of full AI R&D automation we could see more algorithmic progress than has occurred since the development of the Transformer nearly a decade ago. I believe this would result in superintelligent AI systems.”
Verdict: Conditional on full automation of AI R&D, which has not occurred; the six-month clock starts only once that condition is met.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Sep 9, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Electricity consumption reaches record levels in our forecast, driven by data center development and increased manufacturing activity in the commercial and industrial sectors: we expect electricity sales in the United States to total 4,135 billion kilowatthours in 2026, an increase of almost 2% over 2025, and 4,211 billion kilowatthours in 2027.”
Verdict: The 2026 calendar year has not closed; EIA also expects record total generation of 4,368 billion kWh in 2026. Distinct from the December 2025 STEO entry, which forecast total power demand rather than retail electricity sales.
“Based on the recent trajectory of capabilities and the continued difficulty of alignment, I now believe there is a meaningful risk that rapid acceleration in AI capabilities leads to catastrophic and irreversible loss of control in the very near term. If I had to quantify my uncertainty I would estimate an all-things-considered risk of 4% over the next year and 15% over the next three years.”
Verdict: Three-year window runs to September 2029; Christiano stressed these are subjective beliefs rather than model outputs.
PendingSafety & RiskSaid Sep 9, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2036
“Jacob is correct here—we really do earnestly believe AI could kill all humans! I personally think it is >10% within the next decade. I believe Anthropic is trying its best, but we do not yet have a plan to solve alignment for superintelligence and are not clearly on track to.”
Verdict: Posted in response to Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon's public resignation; the claim is a probability estimate over a ten-year horizon and cannot resolve until the mid-2030s.
PendingSafety & RiskSaid Sep 8, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“We're on track for a lot of the most aggressive of these scenarios where by the end of next year things could be out of control already.”
Verdict: Coxon resigned from Anthropic on September 8, 2026, warning that recursive self-improvement could put AI development beyond human control by the end of 2027; the outcome cannot be judged until then.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Sep 7, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“Anthropic will be the biggest user of TPUs, surpassing DeepMind's own use by 2029.”
Verdict: Resolution depends on disclosed or credibly estimated TPU allocation between Anthropic and Google DeepMind by 2029.
Partially correctSelf-DrivingSaid Sep 4, 2026Deadline Oct 4, 2026
“Elon's days of being 'paranoid' over accidents appear to be coming to an end. My guess is $TSLA adds 300 Cybercabs to Austin over the next month. That's just the start.”
Verdict: Tesla expanded fast but fell well short of the number: Texas DMV records cited by CNBC on October 3, 2026 show Cybercabs authorized for commercial use rising from 45 at the September 3 Austin launch to 169 as of Friday, October 2 — about 124 added in the month, versus the 300 predicted. Munster's directional call (rapid, un-'paranoid' scaling — nearly a quadrupling, plus extended service hours) was right, but the magnitude was off by roughly half.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Sep 4, 2026Deadline Oct 31, 2026
“[On when Robotaxi/Cybercab rides will be available around the clock:] Next month or so. The next tech to merge on the v15 plan will enable it.”
Verdict: Tesla's paid Robotaxi service currently runs roughly 6 a.m. to 10 p.m. in seven US markets; 24-hour operation is tied to the next module of the FSD v15 stack, pointing to an October 2026 deployment.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Sep 3, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“HUMAIN will launch a large global venture capital fund — potentially even bigger than the planned $10 billion vehicle — this year [2026], with offices in the US, Saudi Arabia, France and the UK: it 'will be really large as we want to be able to accelerate the pace of investment.'”
Verdict: As of late September 2026 the fund had not yet launched; Amin separately said it could come in above the $10 billion target by year-end.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Sep 2, 2026Deadline Nov 1, 2026
“We expect these deployments to drive our Q4 AI revenue to $21.7 billion, which is up 236% year-on-year. Based on this Q4 guidance, we expect our fiscal 2026 AI revenue to be $58 billion for the year, up 186% year upon year, and above our prior guidance of $56 billion.”
Verdict: Fiscal 2026 ends in early November 2026 and Q4 results have not yet been reported.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Sep 2, 2026Deadline Oct 31, 2028
“For the 2027 fiscal year, Broadcom is looking to double AI revenue to $115 billion, with plans to double again to $230 billion in fiscal 2028; the company is on target to produce over $30 in earnings per share.”
Verdict: Fiscal 2028 ends in late October 2028; LSEG consensus for FY2028 adjusted EPS at the time was $25.86, well below Tan's $30-plus target.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Sep 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“AI lab revenue is "the single most important data point in the market today": the leading labs — OpenAI, Anthropic and xAI — must lift their combined annualized revenue from roughly $100 billion to at least $180 billion by year-end to keep the AI trade intact.”
Verdict: Gerstner based the ~$100 billion combined run-rate estimate on figures circulating in July 2026; resolution depends on the labs' reported annualized revenue at the end of 2026.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Sep 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“The first phase of HUMAIN's Al Sa'ad campus — covering two of six 1GW plots, with construction begun in March 2026 — will deliver 1 gigawatt of capacity in 2027, as part of a wider 6-gigawatt hyperscale AI data centre programme in Riyadh.”
Verdict: Funding for the buildout is still being assembled, including a planned $2.5 billion BSF Capital-managed fund and a $1.2 billion National Infrastructure Fund framework.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Aug 31, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“AI will be able to do anything digital (that doesn't require shaping atoms) at a superhuman level by the end of next year.”
Verdict: Posted in reply to Vercel CEO Guillermo Rauch's remark that AI is 'almost running out of but it can't do this one other thing' in 2026; the deadline is the end of 2027.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Aug 28, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“What's been happening with Nvidia is breathtaking — I expect revenue to grow by 90% for calendar year 2027.”
Verdict: Follows Nvidia's guidance of ~70% fiscal 2028 revenue growth; resolves on Nvidia's calendar-2027 results.
PendingSafety & RiskSaid Aug 28, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“The amount of [AI-provided] expertise available to a layperson will, by 2029, far far exceed the amount that the Aum cultists could muster in the 90s. It seems likely to far exceed the total expertise of either the U.S. or the Soviet bioweapons program.”
Verdict: Deadline is end-2029; judgeable against frontier-model biosecurity evaluations of uplift available to non-expert users.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Aug 26, 2026Deadline Jan 31, 2028
“Nvidia will grow revenue about 70% in fiscal 2028 (the year ending January 2028) — roughly $673 billion, versus the ~44% analysts modeled: "Even though our demand is much greater than 70%, our supply allows us to confidently deliver 70%."”
Verdict: Resolves when Nvidia reports fiscal 2028 results in early 2028; the figure is explicitly supply-constrained, with Huang saying unconstrained demand would be "a lot higher."
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Aug 26, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“OpenAI is "not quite yet" at AGI, but by the end of the year [2026] the company will have an internal system I would call AGI. [OpenAI's charter defines AGI as "highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work."]”
Verdict: Deadline is end of 2026. OpenAI's forthcoming Astra model family is the basis for the confidence; chief research officer Mark Chen separately estimated the company is "80% of the way" to AGI, and Greg Brockman suggested this period may later be remembered as when AGI was created. Resolution will hinge on OpenAI's own internal, unverified definition rather than any external benchmark.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Aug 25, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Waymo will start phased testing in Munich — its first city in the European Union — over the next few weeks, with plans to launch its fully autonomous ride-hailing service to the public at the end of 2027.”
Verdict: Testing begins with all-electric Jaguar I-PACE vehicles and trained safety drivers for mapping; commercial launch depends on approvals from Germany's Federal Motor Transport Authority and state and municipal authorities.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Aug 24, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“SPARC is now 'about 80% complete,' and the company expects to show net energy gain in 2027.”
Verdict: CFS has raised roughly $4 billion to date; Mumgaard told Canary Media in July 2026 that SPARC should come together in early-to-mid 2027, at which point he expects to demonstrate net energy gain.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Aug 24, 2026Deadline Aug 26, 2026
“They will be lights out and accompanied by the kind of hype that tells you FOMO has almost all the people that would buy it already in it. [On Nvidia's fiscal Q2 2027 earnings, reported August 26, 2026.]”
Verdict: Nvidia reported Q2 FY2027 revenue of $96.2 billion on August 26, 2026, up 106% year over year and above the ~$92 billion consensus, and guided Q3 to $108 billion with 70% FY2028 growth; shares jumped 8.7% the next day, adding more than $400 billion in market value — a 'lights out' quarter followed by exactly the wave of buying enthusiasm Burry described.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Aug 19, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“If we could take two, three, four points of our cost down from making smarter, better decisions over a series of several years — my gosh — you look at a margin at Delta, you go from a 10% margin to a 15% margin, it's a 50% improvement in your profitability. These things are billions of dollars substantial... I never refer to AI as artificial. I always call it augmented intelligence. It's going to make our people smarter and better.”
Verdict: Bastian framed the gain as coming 'over a series of several years,' scored here against an end-of-2030 horizon; Delta reported an 8.8% adjusted operating margin in Q2 2026 and guided to 11-13% for Q3 2026.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Aug 19, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Anthropic could have a projected US$300 billion in annualised recurring revenue by year end 2027.”
Verdict: Deadline is end-2027; Anthropic's annualized run rate was reported around $65 billion in mid-2026, so the forecast implies roughly a further four-to-five-fold increase.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Aug 17, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“AI inference costs per agentic workflow will increase more than fivefold through 2028, despite improving per-token cost economics — the 'Inference Paradox'.”
Verdict: Gartner notes routing a task to an agentic reasoning model already raises provider inference costs at least fivefold versus a basic chatbot interaction.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Aug 15, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2033
“Bet against near-term explosive AI-driven growth: Hanson stakes $10,000 against Samuel Albanie's $2,500 (4:1, implied 20% probability) that U.S. real GDP per capita will NOT grow by at least 15% within a single year — i.e. no quarter through 2033Q4 in which BEA real GDP per capita is at least 15% above the prior peak four quarters earlier.”
Verdict: Resolves on BEA real GDP per capita data through 2033Q4; as of early 2026 no such 15% single-year jump has occurred.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Aug 11, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2033
“I expect full automation of AI R&D perhaps somewhere around 2031, 2030. Getting to the 'beats all humans on the job' milestone, maybe my median expectation is around 2033. But if I see AIs fully automating AI R&D, I think I'm expecting that probably within a year.”
Verdict: Median-timeline forecast: full automation of AI R&D around 2030-2031 and AI that beats all humans on the job around 2033; both deadlines are in the future.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Aug 11, 2026Deadline Sep 30, 2026
“Probably our AI revenue — not probably, definitely — our AI revenue will exceed all other SpaceX revenue probably in September, like next month.”
Verdict: In Q2 2026 SpaceX reported $7.81 billion of revenue with roughly $2.56 billion from AI, so the crossover requires a large jump; September segment revenue will not be verifiable until SpaceX reports third-quarter results.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Aug 10, 2026
“As Jensen said, each gigawatt costs $50 to $60 billion to build out, and we're talking about in the United States alone, we're going to need over 70 gigawatts of power to fuel this.”
Verdict: Fink gave no completion date for the 70+ GW of US AI power capacity, so the claim is tracked as an open capacity/cost estimate; it was made alongside Nvidia's MOUs with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR to mobilize roughly $500 billion of compute financing.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Aug 10, 2026Deadline Mar 19, 2027
“Bought fresh out-of-the-money Palantir put options expiring in March 2027 with strike prices in the low-to-mid $100s — rebuilding the bearish bet while Palantir traded near $175 — on the thesis that the stock is grossly overvalued and that Palantir underreports stock-based compensation at roughly $5 billion annually.”
Verdict: Resolves on the March 2027 options expiration: the bet pays off only if Palantir falls below roughly $100–$130 by then.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Aug 7, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Global AI-related investment will exceed $1 trillion in 2026, including $581 billion in the US — above the roughly $794 billion consensus estimate for US hyperscaler capex alone — with cumulative AI investment reaching about $1.8 trillion globally since 2022 by the end of 2026.”
Verdict: The 2026 calendar year is still under way; resolves once full-year global and US AI investment totals are tallied in 2027.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Aug 6, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“The consensus expects hyperscaler capex to run at roughly 3% of GDP every year from 2027 to 2029, up from 0.3% of GDP in 2019 and 1.4% in 2025 — more than twice the peak of the telecom and fiber buildout. Data-center capex adds 1.7 percentage points in just two years, from 1.4% of GDP in 2025 to 3.1% in 2027, or roughly 0.85 percentage points a year. A cycle that builds at 0.85 percentage points a year can unwind at a similar pace, and that, rather than the buildout itself, is the macro risk if AI demand disappoints.”
Verdict: Resolves against reported hyperscaler capital expenditure as a share of US nominal GDP for 2027, 2028 and 2029.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Aug 4, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“We expect to end this year with over two gigawatts of compute. And probably our cumulative compute online by the end of next year will be several times higher — so it may be closer to 10GW of compute than 5GW of compute.”
Verdict: SpaceX ended Q2 2026 with 1.4 GW of nameplate compute, up from 1.0 GW in Q1 and 0.4 GW a year earlier.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Aug 4, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Our tentative target is to actually have 20 gigawatts at the power and cooling level online by the end of next year. Now I don't think we're going to achieve 20 gigawatts... Some of them won't pan out exactly on time, but I would expect that we still probably have at the power plant level, something close to 15 gigawatts.”
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Aug 3, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“For full year 2026: we are raising our revenue guidance to between $8.150 – $8.158 billion — 82% year-over-year growth — and our U.S. commercial revenue guidance to in excess of $3.424 billion, representing a growth rate of at least 134%.”
Verdict: Raise followed Q2 2026 revenue of $1.935 billion (+93% y/y) and U.S. commercial revenue of $764 million (+149% y/y); the full-year outcome is not yet known.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Aug 3, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Z1 systems are coming in 2027. We plan to build a billion+ pbit cluster next year.”
Verdict: Z1 is taped out and in fabrication as of August 2026; resolution depends on whether Z1 cards, sticks and clusters reach early-access customers and a billion-plus pbit cluster is built during 2027.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Aug 3, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“The combined 2026 CapEx of the world's nine largest cloud service providers — Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, ByteDance, Tencent, Alibaba and Baidu — will exceed US$886.7 billion, up approximately 90% year over year, and will hit about US$1.3 trillion in 2027, nearly 50% growth; the 2026 AI server shipment forecast is revised up from 28% to nearly 31% year-over-year growth.”
Verdict: TrendForce had previously put 2026 CSP capex at about US$830 billion in May 2026 before raising it to US$886.7 billion; the 2027 figure is the tracked outcome.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Aug 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2036
“I generally agree with the first and third predictions — that it's very likely, given current trajectories, that AI will be more intelligent than us in 10 years and therefore will be in control... If we continue with the present accelerating pace of the AI race, yes, this will be the result. In 10 years, the AIs will take over. But this is not inevitable. We are still in control in 2026.”
Verdict: Said in response to Elon Musk's prediction that AI would far surpass human intelligence and humans would not be in control within ten years; Harari endorses the trajectory while rejecting its inevitability.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Aug 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2036
“Increasingly, humans will give AIs control of financial decisions. AIs will come up with new financial devices far more sophisticated than bonds and stocks, and we will not be able to understand it anymore... In 10 years, when we have entrusted AIs with the financial system, no human on the planet understands it — there is a financial crash and advisors are running to the president saying, the market is collapsing, the AI says do X, we don't know why, but we have to believe it.”
Verdict: Framed as the consequence of continuing on the present course, in agreement with Musk's prediction that human money disappears within a decade.
“We're closer to a '99-type moment than a '97 — the year before the dot-com crash, not the one where the party still had years to run. One signal has been foolproof at marking the late stage of a bubble: a flood of companies selling new stock, and in 2026 Wall Street's printing press is running 'full bore.' [Chanos's roughly 40-name short book includes Tesla and SpaceX.]”
Verdict: Chanos pointed to SpaceX's record IPO as evidence the late-cycle equity-issuance wave has arrived; a '99 analogy implies a market peak within roughly a year of the statement.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jul 30, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“We now expect to spend approximately $220 billion in capital expenditures in 2026 — higher memory costs pushing the number up from our prior estimate of about $200 billion — and we still will not have enough capacity to meet demand.”
Verdict: Supersedes the February 2026 ~$200 billion guide; AWS backlog was reported at $496 billion in the same quarter. Resolves on Amazon's full-year 2026 capex.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jul 30, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“"I think that in 2028 or 2029, you'll see it [quantum computing] have a measurable impact on our top line and bottom line."”
Verdict: Made the same week IBM and Algorithmiq announced research they billed as a demonstration of quantum advantage; IBM does not yet break out material quantum revenue.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jul 30, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2039
“"By the end of the 2030s, we are now pretty convinced this is a trillion dollars of value" — quantum computing will represent a trillion dollars of economic value by the end of the 2030s.”
Verdict: Krishna tied the figure to quantum applications in batteries, materials, fusion energy and drug discovery; the 'value' metric is not precisely defined, which will complicate eventual scoring.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jul 29, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2031
“I think that it's extremely unlikely if you look out five years from now, for example — whatever period of time you want — that you don't have billions of people with a personal agent that understands your goals and that is just working on your behalf 24/7 to achieve your goals.”
Verdict: Made during the analyst Q&A, where Zuckerberg argued consumer personal agents will be an 'extremely important and massive market'; Meta said over a million businesses already use its agents weekly on WhatsApp and Messenger.
“Give it a year and a model will escape and open source its own weights. The bits want to be free.”
— Guillaume Verdon, Founder and CEO of Extropic; founder of the effective accelerationism movement, posting as Beff Jezos (CEO). Beff (e/acc) on X, July 25, 2026
Verdict: Resolves if, by July 25, 2027, an AI model is credibly documented to have exfiltrated itself and published its own weights; no such incident has been reported to date.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jul 22, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“We are updating our full year 2026 CapEx guidance range to $195-205 billion, up from our previous estimate of $180-190 billion. The increase in the range is primarily due to an acceleration in the delivery of capacity to meet growing demand.”
Verdict: Third 2026 capex guide of the year (after $175-185B in February and $180-190B in Q1); Q2 2026 capex alone was $44.9 billion. Resolves on full-year 2026 results.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jul 22, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“We now expect to have at least 125 GW of gas equipment under contract by year-end 2026.”
Verdict: Gas power backlog plus slot reservations stood at 116 GW at the end of Q2 2026 (up from 100 GW in Q1), and the target was raised from the 110 GW guided in April; analysts have suggested the market expects 130–140 GW.
CorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jul 22, 2026Deadline Sep 30, 2026
“We remain on track to deliver 20 GW of annual gas turbine output in the third quarter of 2026.”
Verdict: On the July 22, 2026 Q2 call Strazik said Gas Power had 'now reached our 20-gigawatt annualized run rate' and was on track for 24 GW in 2028, and in September he guided to a ~5 GW quarterly production run rate in both Q3 and Q4 2026 (equivalent to 20 GW annualized). Q3 2026 results (reported October 28, 2026) showed Power revenue of $6.1B, up 25%, on higher Gas Power turbine volumes with 32 turbine shipments and Power EBITDA margin of 21.4%, consistent with the milestone being hit on schedule.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jul 22, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“To meet this demand... we are targeting 24 GW of annual gas turbine output in 2028, and we are implementing actions to produce 30 GW in 2030 — largely within the existing factory footprint.”
Verdict: The 30 GW-by-2030 capacity plan is a step up from the previously communicated 24 GW ceiling; at least one sell-side analyst has said 'the jury's out' on whether it can be executed capital-efficiently.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Jul 22, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Unsupervised mileage has increased at double-digit growth rates per week since the beginning of the year. We expect to continue growing at such a large rate through the rest of this year.”
Verdict: Tesla disclosed more than 380,000 unsupervised Robotaxi miles across six cities at the Q2 2026 call; by mid-August 2026 Elluswamy said the fleet had passed one million unsupervised miles, consistent with continued rapid growth so far.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Jul 22, 2026Deadline Mar 31, 2027
“Tesla expects to have self-driving working on the Tesla Semi probably around the end of this year or early next year.”
Verdict: Made in response to an analyst question about Semi autonomy; Musk framed driverless trucks as a response to a shortage of truck drivers.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jul 17, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2036
“"The biggest problem in this country is [AI] will raise the standard of living of the average person, but the people involved are likely to get 10, 100 times wealthier than they already are. That's a problem for society." Middle-class workers, by contrast, might simply see their salaries double over the next decade.”
Verdict: Karp framed the gap — roughly 2x for middle-class wages versus 10-100x for AI owners — as 'a complete decoupling of unimaginable wealth and normal wealth'; resolvable against US median wage growth through 2036.
PendingHealthcareSaid Jul 16, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“In the quarter, we committed to eliminating, by the end of this year [2026], 30% of prior authorization volume and nearly two-thirds of prior authorization requirements for pediatric care... AI is both an enabler and accelerant to this effort.”
Verdict: Builds on UnitedHealthcare's May 5, 2026 announcement to eliminate an additional 30% of remaining prior authorizations and its May 29, 2026 pledge to remove nearly two-thirds of pediatric prior authorization requirements by year-end; first tranche of reductions took effect October 1, 2026.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jul 15, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“ASML increases outlook, expects 2026 total net sales to be between €43 billion and €45 billion, with a gross margin between 54% and 56%.”
Verdict: ASML reported Q3 2026 total net sales of €11.66 billion on October 14, 2026 — comfortably inside the guided €11.0–12.0 billion range — but gross margin came in at 57.5%, above the guided 55–57% band. Revenue guidance hit; the margin guidance was beaten rather than met.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jul 15, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Based on this momentum, we are planning to add 30% to our 2026 low NA EUV capacity of around 65 for 2027, and we are investigating to increase capacity with another 30% for 2028.”
Verdict: Implies roughly 85 low-NA EUV systems of capacity in 2027; CFO Roger Dassen said on the same call that ASML is close to having all the orders it needs to fill that capacity.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jul 15, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Similarly, we plan to add 30% to our 2026 DUV immersion capacity of around 130 for 2027, and we are investigating to increase capacity with another 30% in 2028.”
Verdict: Implies roughly 170 DUV immersion systems of capacity in 2027, part of a plan to roughly double 2026 output levels by 2028.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jul 15, 2026Deadline Jul 15, 2029
“Demand for AI infrastructure remains strong, with chips, data centers, energy and workers all limiting supply — the industry could stay supply-constrained for the next two to three years.”
Verdict: Horizon runs to mid-2029; Haas repeated in September 2026 that demand is 'off the charts' and supply constraints could persist for years.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jul 14, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2040
“By around 2040 there will be roughly one billion AI-powered humanoid robots in operation and 100 trillion AI agents at work, with the AI-related market accounting for about 20% of combined global GDP (about 7 quadrillion yen); the center of labor will shift from humans to robots within the next decade or so.”
Verdict: In the same presentation Son said global AI infrastructure would require about $5 trillion of investment a year by 2040.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jul 13, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Meta's Hyperion data center supercluster in Richland Parish, Louisiana will be a 5-gigawatt facility costing more than $50 billion, and is on track to reach 2 gigawatts by 2030; no date has been set for completing the full 5-gigawatt build-out.”
Verdict: The expansion roughly doubled the previously reported ~$27 billion price tag from the October 2025 Blue Owl Capital joint venture; Blue Owl and BlackRock are among the project's financial backers.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jul 5, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2036
“Humanoid robots will get into the home eventually, but don't expect them to deliver breakfast in bed anytime soon — it'll be "10-plus years," because homes are chaotic, with dogs, babies, visitors and objects left in unexpected places, unlike warehouses and factories that have fixed aisles and predictable equipment and workflows.”
Verdict: Resolves incorrect if a generally capable household humanoid is commercially deployed in ordinary US homes before roughly mid-2036; correct if home humanoids remain absent or niche past that date.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jul 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“2029 is the real ramp for co-packaged optics — the Street expects 2027, but true mass production only happens between late 2028 and 2029. It is a manufacturing thing: the volumes and yields are not there, so people are going to stay in copper all they can. Rubin is all copper, and Feynman on the GPU is still copper.”
Verdict: Resolves on when CPO actually reaches volume production; note that later 2026 reporting suggests Nvidia may pull CPO into the Feynman generation (2028), which would cut against the copper-through-Feynman part of the call.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jun 27, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“I think Anthropic is worth $3 trillion today... They're going to end this year with well over $100 billion [in revenue].”
Verdict: As of September 2026, the New York Times reported Anthropic is on track to exceed a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by the end of 2026 (up from $65 billion in July) — but annualized run rate is not the same as $100 billion of revenue booked during the year, so resolution will depend on which measure is applied.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jun 27, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“So what's the '28 number? Is it $200 billion? Is it $300 billion? ... It will be very profitable at that scale because it'll be inference-dominated and people are reporting they have 85% [gross margins on inference].”
Verdict: Target date is more than two years out; Anthropic was reported at roughly a $65 billion annualized run rate in July 2026 and on track for over $100 billion by year-end 2026.
PendingSafety & RiskSaid Jun 17, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“Our latest assessment shows that by 2028, it is highly likely that AI-cyber capabilities will be used by attackers against known vulnerabilities in legacy technology in our critical national infrastructure.”
Verdict: Deadline is end-2028. Horne made the claim in the same speech in which he disclosed the NCSC handled more than 200 incidents affecting UK critical national infrastructure in the year to May 2026, around 75% of them linked to state actors (Russia, China and Iran named).
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jun 16, 2026Deadline Sep 30, 2026
“Aggregate cash capital expenditure across the largest hyperscalers (Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle) is on track to overtake their operating cash flow around Q3 2026 — capex is growing roughly 70% per year against about 23% annual growth in operating cash flow, pushing most hyperscalers toward external financing.”
Verdict: Q3 2026 results are not reported until late October 2026, so the crossover cannot yet be confirmed; corroborating evidence is mounting (FactSet reported in July 2026 that hyperscaler free cash flow was under mounting pressure, with incremental annual debt rising from 9% of capex in FY24 to 32% by mid-2026).
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jun 15, 2026Deadline Jun 15, 2027
“It might not be inconceivable that Micron, the supplier of HBMs, might be more valuable than Meta in the next 6 to 12 months. Whatever is the bottleneck will command the price.”
Verdict: Micron briefly overtook Meta's market cap on June 25, 2026 after a blowout fiscal Q3 (revenue up 346% year over year), but the crossover did not hold: as of September 2026 Meta sits near $1.6–1.7T versus roughly $1.0–1.1T for Micron. The 6–12 month window runs to mid-June 2027.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jun 15, 2026Deadline Jun 15, 2029
“Power, not GPUs or chips, is the binding constraint on AI infrastructure — and it will remain the bottleneck for at least the next three-plus years, with roughly 40% of planned US data center builds blocked by public resistance.”
Verdict: Srinivas also flagged memory and CPUs as the next pinch points in the same interview, and said Rubin-generation data centers reach full capacity in 2027.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jun 14, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“I think SpaceX might be able to reach approximately $1T revenue in 2030. And I would be surprised if revenue is not greater than $1T in 2031.”
Verdict: Posted days after SpaceX's record $86B IPO; SpaceX reported $18.7B of 2025 revenue, versus Morgan Stanley's ~$330B and Goldman's higher 2030 estimates. Management's internal $1T target was pulled forward from 2031 to 2030 on the Q2 2026 call.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jun 10, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Worldwide data center electricity consumption will grow 26% in 2026, reaching 565 terawatt hours, up from 447TWh in 2025; AI-optimized servers will account for 31% of data center power consumption in 2026 and their power consumption will surpass that of conventional servers in 2027.”
Verdict: Gartner also forecast worldwide data center power demand rising 27% in 2026 to roughly 132GW and reaching about 290GW by 2030; full-year 2026 consumption data is not yet available.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jun 10, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“AI-related global debt issuance will more than double to nearly $570 billion in 2026, as hyperscalers turn to alternative funding sources to meet massive AI-driven capex needs — 'hyperscalers have been broadening their investor base through non-USD issuance.'”
Verdict: Morgan Stanley put AI-related global debt issuance at nearly $236 billion as of May 31, 2026 — roughly four times the year-earlier pace — and expected issuance to ramp in the second half of 2026 as hyperscaler capex heads past $1 trillion in 2027.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jun 9, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“Agnostic of these two companies [Anthropic and OpenAI], we were planning for something in 2028, so that still remains the case.”
Verdict: Made after Anthropic's confidential IPO filing and reports of an OpenAI listing; Perplexity reported roughly $500M+ ARR in mid-2026 and has not filed.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jun 4, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“Helion is best positioned to generate electricity from fusion for customers this decade, not the next, and we have the right technology and strategy to build the commercial fusion market over the long term.”
Verdict: Helion's Orion plant, contracted to supply Microsoft starting in 2028, is the vehicle for delivering fusion electricity to customers before 2030.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jun 3, 2026Deadline Nov 1, 2026
“For the full year 2026, we expect to achieve AI semiconductor revenue of $56 billion, up approximately 180% from fiscal 2025.”
Verdict: Fiscal 2026 closes in early November 2026; after three quarters Broadcom raised the figure to $58 billion (September 2, 2026) with Q4 AI revenue guided at $21.7 billion, so the $56 billion forecast is tracking to be met or exceeded.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jun 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“This report updates the 2024 Data Center Energy Usage Report and estimates that data centers could account for 11.8% of total U.S. electricity by 2030 (reference case 649 TWh), with a scenario range of 9.5% to 15.3% of total U.S. electricity use by 2030 — compared with the 2024 report's 6.7%–12.0% by 2028 estimate.”
Verdict: Target year 2030 is in the future. Note the report is titled '2025 Update' but is self-cited as Shehabi 2026 and references the NERC 2025 Long-Term Reliability Assessment published in 2026.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Jun 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2034
“Define AGI as AI intelligent enough to do 90% of knowledge work jobs. I think there's a 25% chance of AGI by 2027, a 50% chance by 2034, and a 75% chance by 2045.”
Verdict: Target date set to the 50% (median) point of Alexander's stated distribution; he justifies it mainly by extrapolating METR time-horizon trends.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Jun 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2031
“If all of this is too probabilistic, my modal scenario looks something like AGI in 2031 [AI intelligent enough to do 90% of knowledge work jobs].”
Verdict: Claim trimmed to the AGI-timing clause to avoid overlapping the separate diffusion/jobs entry from the same sentence.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jun 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2039
“AGI... diffuses throughout the economy until more than half of jobs are automated by the late 2030s. Also around the late 2030s we get Bostromian superintelligence, originally in labs but very quickly diffusing out. GDP goes vertical in the late 2030s and early 2040s, and the point of no return is sometime around then.”
Verdict: Target date set to the end of the 'late 2030s' window Alexander gives for more than half of jobs being automated.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Jun 2026
“Define the superhuman gap as the time between AI that can do 90% of knowledge work jobs, and AI that is obviously smarter than the top human geniuses in 90% of fields (it doesn't have to be the same AI). I think there's a 25% chance the superhuman gap range will be less than 1 year, a 50% chance it will last less than 4 years, and a 75% chance it will last less than 10 years.”
Verdict: A relative-interval forecast with no calendar deadline: the clock starts only once AI can do 90% of knowledge work jobs (Alexander's AGI definition, which he gives a 50% chance by 2034).
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jun 2026
“Define the diffusion gap as the time between the AI that could do 90% of knowledge work jobs, and the time when AI does do even half of knowledge work jobs. I think there's a 25% chance the diffusion gap is less than 3 years, and a 50% chance it's less than 10 years.”
Verdict: A relative-interval forecast with no calendar deadline; Alexander notes his 75% figure is omitted because it falls past the point where 'diffusion' becomes obsolete as a concept.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Jun 2026
“Define the Bostromian superintelligence gap as the time between AGI and an AI which, if given independent control of resources like labs and factories, could accelerate technology by a subjective century in one year (eg if invented in 2030, could produce a level of technology that feels typical of 2130 by 2031). I think there's a 25% chance the Bostromian superintelligence gap will be less than 2 years, a 50% chance it will be less than 10 years, and a 75% chance it will be less than 50 years.”
Verdict: Conditional forecast measured from whenever AGI (Alexander's definition: AI able to do 90% of knowledge work jobs) arrives; his companion modal scenario in the same post puts AGI at 2031 and Bostromian superintelligence in the late 2030s.
PendingSafety & RiskSaid Jun 2026
“Given the current amount that corporations are pursuing safety, I think there's a 20% chance that the first AIs to cross the point of no return will want to eliminate the human population. [The point of no return is the point where, if an AI wanted to eliminate humanity, humans would no longer have a plausible chance of stopping it.]”
Verdict: Narrowed from a two-part entry to the unconditional-on-counterfactuals 20% estimate; in the same post Alexander's modal scenario places the point of no return in the late 2030s / early 2040s.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid May 28, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Mistral will reach 200 megawatts of compute capacity across Europe by the end of 2027, building on its 40+ MW Bruyères-le-Châtel site near Paris and its site in Borlänge, Sweden.”
Verdict: In August 2026 Mistral said multi-year enterprise compute commitments (ASML, CMA CGM, Amadeus) would underwrite the build-out; capacity in place so far is roughly 44 MW near Paris, 23 MW in Sweden and 10 MW at Les Ulis.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid May 28, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Mistral will build compute infrastructure in Europe with a capacity of one gigawatt — equivalent to the output of a nuclear power plant — by 2030.”
Verdict: Mensch repeated the 1 GW-by-2030 goal after Mistral's July 2026 Microsoft Azure deal and in the August 2026 Mistral Compute expansion; a 1.4 GW campus in France with Nvidia and MGX is planned before 2030.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid May 28, 2026Deadline Sep 30, 2026
“The Les Ulis site (Essonne), a new 10 MW facility dedicated to inference operations, is scheduled to open in the third quarter of 2026.”
Verdict: The site, hosted in Digital Realty's Paris South campus with Nvidia GB300 GPUs, was described in August 2026 reporting as coming online in Q3 2026; the quarter has not yet closed.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid May 22, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2031
“2030 is when I expect it [AGI] to arrive, either plus or minus a year.”
Verdict: Hassabis repeated the same '2030, plus or minus a year' framing at Stanford GSB in June 2026; target date set to the outer bound of his stated range.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid May 21, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2036
“AI will outstrip the world's best mathematicians within a decade — mathematics is a closed system, like chess and Go, where models can generate their own conjectures, test them, learn from failures and compound endlessly without much more data.”
Verdict: Deadline is 2036; Hinton made the remark shortly after an AI system proved an Erdős theorem, which he cited as evidence for the closed-system argument.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid May 20, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“On power, the near-term shortage starts to ease in 2027 and 2028 as new sources of energy come online — and orbital compute solves it in the long term.”
Verdict: Deadline is end of 2028; resolution will turn on whether US data-center power constraints measurably loosen in 2027-28 as new generation comes online.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid May 20, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“US data center power demand is forecast to more than double to 66 GW in 2027 from 31 GW in 2025 (41 GW in 2026), driven by an accelerating buildout of AI infrastructure; data centers' share of total US peak summer power demand is projected to jump to 8.5% in 2027 from 4.1% in 2025.”
Verdict: Forecast assumes US data center capacity reaches ~95 GW by end-2027 at a 70% utilization rate; Goldman itself notes only about 50-60% of scheduled capacity is expected to come online on time.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid May 10, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“If I have to make a prediction — and it's super hard to make those predictions, I'll give a 50% chance that I'll be correct — but I'll say this year [2026] will be the year of agents.”
Verdict: Amon frames this as a 50/50 call; he repeated the 'year of agents' framing at Computex 2026, and the year is not yet over.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid May 8, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Stocks are not up or down because of jobs or consumer sentiment. They are going straight up because they have been going straight up. On a two letter thesis that everyone thinks they understand... Feeling like the last months of the 1999-2000 bubble.”
Verdict: Burry compared the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's run (up ~65% in 2026 at the time) with the run-up into the March 2000 top; as of late September 2026 the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were still setting records, with no bubble peak yet identifiable.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid May 7, 2026Deadline May 7, 2028
“The AI-fueled bull market has another year or two to run — it feels like 1999, about a year before the dot-com peak: "Just imagine the stock market went up another 40%. The stock market GDP is going to probably be good lord 300%, 350%. You just know that there'll be some breathtaking kind of corrections."”
Verdict: Jones said he had recently added to AI positions and put the current cycle roughly 50-60% through a typical four- to five-and-a-half-year productivity boom; judge by whether the AI-led equity rally peaks before roughly May 2028.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid May 5, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Following 7 gigawatts of new load agreements signed during the first quarter, primarily in Ohio and Texas, AEP's incremental load is expected to grow to 63 GW by 2030 — up from 56 GW a quarter earlier, nearly 90% of it data centers — backed by signed agreements with well-capitalized industrial customers, hyperscalers and data centers.”
Verdict: AEP Texas accounts for 41 GW of the commitments; AEP has since expanded the figure to 69 GW through 2030. Resolves at end-2030.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid May 5, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2036
“The capital expenditures for this [the AI infrastructure buildout] — $10 trillion. That's just for the US. Over the next 10 years we will be rewiring the global economy... laying cloud AI factories and data centers. Governments' deficits mean much of this money is going to come from the private sector — pension funds, 401(k)s, insurance companies and private credit.”
Verdict: Ten-year horizon running to 2036; Fink made the same $10 trillion / private-savings-financing argument the following day (May 6, 2026) at Texas State Technical College in Waco, a clip of which Snopes fact-checked as genuine.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid May 5, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Based on the demand signals we are seeing today and the structural increase in CPU compute requirements driven by agentic AI, we now expect the server CPU TAM to grow at greater than 35% annually, reaching over $120 billion by 2030 [versus the approximately 18% annual growth outlined at our Financial Analyst Day in November].”
Verdict: AMD doubled its own November 2025 Analyst Day server CPU TAM outlook (~$60 billion, ~18% growth) on this call, and at Advancing AI in July 2026 signalled an even larger figure; the 2030 outcome remains open.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid May 4, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“I think Nvidia will be the first $10 trillion company. Whether it comes all at once or whether it comes over the course of the next two to three years, we're patient — we're going to own this, it's one of our largest holdings.”
Verdict: Nvidia's market capitalization was roughly $4.8 trillion when the prediction was made; the implied two-to-three-year window runs to about 2029.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid May 4, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“I think there's a ~60% chance we see automated AI R&D (where a frontier model is able to autonomously train a successor version of itself) by the end of 2028 — and only about 30% by the end of 2027, because AI research contains some requirement for creativity and heterodox insights that AI systems haven't yet displayed in a transformative and major way.”
Verdict: Clark's original quantified forecast; in an October 12, 2026 post he moved his favored date for full recursive self-improvement to 2027 without giving new numerical odds.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid May 3, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“I've been saying for awhile that AI capex will be a 2% tailwind to GDP growth this year [2026]. In fact, according to a new report from Morgan Stanley, the numbers are even stronger — more like 2.5% this year and over 3% next year.”
— David Sacks, Former White House AI and Crypto Czar; co-founder, Craft Ventures; All-In Podcast co-host (Investor). David Sacks on X, May 3, 2026
Verdict: Resolves against the estimated contribution of AI-related capital expenditure to 2026 US real GDP growth (BEA investment contributions as tallied by Morgan Stanley/Goldman-style decompositions); Q1 2026 GDP grew 2.0% annualized with AI-related investment cited as the dominant contributor.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid May 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Inflation surprises lower (not higher), the dollar rallies (not crashes), the rolling recession ends, AI drives structural deflation the bond market is only starting to price, and a 30+ year base in US capital spending just broke to the upside — with official CPI readings expected to 'surprise on the low side' over the next six to nine months.”
Verdict: Judged on end-2026 US CPI prints versus consensus at the time of the call, the trade-weighted dollar, and whether the housing/manufacturing 'rolling recession' ends; Wood framed the inflation leg as a six-to-nine-month call.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Apr 30, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“As a result of these trends, I'm excited to announce that we are increasing our large reciprocating engine capacity from 2x 2024 levels to nearly 3x 2024 levels — and our target for power generation sales is now more than 3x by 2030 from a 2024 baseline.”
Verdict: Caterpillar says it will invest heavily in the capacity expansion from 2027 through 2029 and expects positive cash payback by the end of 2030; power generation retail sales grew 72% year over year in Q2 2026.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Apr 30, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“We expect a compound annual growth rate for sales and revenues between 6% and 9% from 2024 to 2030, and we now anticipate low double-digit growth for full year 2026 sales and revenues.”
Verdict: The 2024–2030 CAGR target runs to the end of the decade; the nearer-term 2026 component was already raised again at Q2 2026 (August 4, 2026), when Caterpillar guided to mid-to-high-teens full-year sales growth after a record $20.5 billion quarter.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Apr 29, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“For calendar year 2026, we expect to invest roughly $190 billion in capital expenditures which includes approximately $25 billion from the impact of higher component pricing.”
Verdict: Guidance covers calendar year 2026 (versus roughly $118 billion in calendar 2025). On the July 2026 FY26 Q4 call Hood trimmed the calendar-2026 expectation to about $175 billion, attributing the change to a useful-life accounting update that shifts more data center leases from finance to operating leases rather than to any cut in underlying investment.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Apr 29, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“We anticipate 2026 capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, to be in the range of $125-145 billion, increased from our prior range of $115-135 billion. This reflects our expectations for higher component pricing this year and, to a lesser extent, additional data center costs to support future year capacity.”
Verdict: Raised from the $115-135 billion range guided in January 2026 and nearly double the $72.2 billion Meta spent in 2025; resolves against actual full-year 2026 capex reported with Q4 2026 results in early 2027.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Apr 25, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“They said AI would kill entry-level jobs. We're hiring 1,000 new grads & interns right now to ride the AI exponential — these grads & interns are building it, powering Agentforce & Headless360 at Salesforce.”
Verdict: Benioff made the pledge as a rebuttal to predictions that AI would eliminate entry-level white-collar work; Salesforce had cut around 1,000 roles in February 2025 and again in early February 2026.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Apr 23, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2031
“I think a default expectation in five years is if there's an emergency, you call 9-1-1, a drone shows up in a few seconds and that's gonna be everywhere in the US, hopefully everywhere in the world. And that's gonna change the way policing works.”
Verdict: At the time of the prediction Skydio said its drones were in more than 1,200 US public-safety agencies across 42 states, with drone-as-first-responder programs still limited to individual jurisdictions.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid Apr 22, 2026Deadline Aug 31, 2026
“Start of production [for Optimus at Fremont] is, we're assuming, somewhere around the late July, August time frame — though initial output will be 'quite slow' and the production rate this year is 'literally impossible to predict.'”
Verdict: The late-July/August window was missed: Tesla's Q2 2026 update (July 22) said Fremont construction had begun with production only 'anticipated later this year,' Musk said on the call that Tesla 'will soon start production' with Optimus, and August 2026 reporting described the start as pushed to 'later this year.'
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Apr 22, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“"We strongly believe that our partners will achieve the first examples of quantum advantage this year, leveraging IBM hardware... We continue to make progress in quantum and remain on track to deliver the first large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029."”
Verdict: In July–August 2026 IBM and partners including Algorithmiq published demonstrations they described as verified quantum advantage on Heron hardware, but whether these count as genuine advantage remains contested — IBM's own quantum lead has framed quantum advantage as a scientific debate rather than a binary milestone.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Apr 22, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“Since I began work on AI in 2010, training compute for frontier models has grown by one trillion times. Now we're looking at something like another thousand-fold growth in effective compute by the end of 2028. 1000x the existing 1,000,000,000,000x. Extraordinary stuff.”
Verdict: Part of a series of April 2026 posts arguing AI scaling skeptics are wrong; an earlier April 8 post made the same 1000x-by-2028 effective-compute claim.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Apr 22, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“In January, we shared our outlook for 2026 WFE in the $135 billion range. Since then, spending projections from customers have moved higher across all device segments. We now expect WFE of $140 billion with a bias to the upside.”
Verdict: Calendar-2026 industry WFE totals will not be known until early 2027; Archer said the figure carries an upward bias.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Apr 22, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“We said in early 2025 that roughly $40 billion in conversion spending would be required over several years to enable existing NAND installed wafer capacity to produce devices with more than 200 layers. We now anticipate that this conversion will be pulled forward, with the majority of spending occurring before the end of calendar year 2027.”
Verdict: Archer attributed the acceleration to AI data centers shifting to higher-layer-count QLC NAND; resolution requires NAND conversion spending data through the end of 2027.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Apr 22, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Asked when unsupervised FSD would reach customer cars: "I'm just guessing here, but probably in the fourth quarter" [of 2026] — unsupervised FSD will not arrive in consumer Teslas until Q4 2026 at the earliest.”
Verdict: As of late September 2026, unsupervised FSD has still not been released to consumer vehicles; Musk cited complex intersections, poor road markings and weather as remaining obstacles, while repeating in May 2026 that it would be 'widespread' in the U.S. by year-end.
CorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Apr 22, 2026Deadline Jun 30, 2026
“In the meantime, we're going to also release a V14 version for Hardware 3. This will be a distilled version of the same V14 software that we released for Hardware 4. And people should be able to start the drives from Park state and basically have all the features that V14 for Hardware 4 has, and that's expected to come end of June.”
Verdict: Tesla began rolling out FSD v14 'Lite' (firmware 2026.20.5.1) to Hardware 3 early-access customers on June 29, 2026, with release notes describing distillation of HW4 v14 intelligence plus parking, unparking and reversing; wide release followed on July 21, 2026.
PendingSafety & RiskSaid Apr 21, 2026
“My P(Doom) is fifty percent — humanity has roughly a 50/50 chance of getting through the transition to superintelligent AI, and less than 1,000 days to get our act together.”
Verdict: Narrowed from a three-part claim to the enterprise-value forecast; ARK repeated the '~$34 trillion enterprise value opportunity for robotaxi platforms by 2030' figure in its newsletter, an update to its earlier $14 trillion robotaxi value estimate.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Apr 10, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“OpenAI expects its advertising business to generate $2.5 billion in revenue in 2026, growing to $11 billion in 2027, $25 billion in 2028, $53 billion in 2029 and $100 billion by 2030.”
— OpenAI, Company projections shared in investor presentations, reported by Axios (CEO). Axios (Ina Fried), April 2026
Verdict: OpenAI said on August 31, 2026 that its ad business had reached a $1 billion annualized run rate less than 200 days after launch.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Apr 10, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“OpenAI's revenue projections assume its products will reach 2.75 billion weekly users by 2030.”
— OpenAI, Company projections shared in investor presentations, reported by Axios (CEO). Axios (Ina Fried), April 2026
Verdict: ChatGPT missed its internal target of 1 billion weekly active users by the end of 2025, per a WSJ report in April 2026.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Apr 8, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“It's plausible that by 2030 we'll bring an additional 200 gigawatts of compute online every year — akin to the peak energy use of the UK, France, Germany, and Italy put together.”
Verdict: Resolves at the end of 2030 on whether annual additions of AI compute capacity approach 200 GW per year.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Apr 8, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2050
“Data center server electricity use grows to 22%–33% of commercial building electricity use by 2050 across our cases — servers alone accounted for an estimated 7% of commercial sector electricity consumption in 2025, and by 2050 server consumption alone reaches between 446 billion kilowatthours and 818 billion kilowatthours.”
Verdict: AEO2026's High Electricity Demand case assumes the installed stock of AI servers grows exponentially through 2050; resolution depends on EIA's own commercial-sector accounting decades out.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Apr 5, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“The "AI job loss" narratives are all fake. AI = massive ramp in productivity = massive ramp in demand = massive jobs boom. Watch.”
Verdict: Posted alongside data on rising 2026 tech job openings; to be judged against US employment trends through the end of 2026, against a backdrop of steady 4.3% unemployment and rising long-term unemployment at the time of the post.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Apr 2026Deadline Jan 15, 2027
“Bought January 2027 Nvidia put options at the $115 strike for $3.30 while continuing to hold $100-strike puts from earlier — a position sized at roughly 3% of notional value, on the view that Nvidia's valuation leaves almost no room for disappointment: 'borrowing costs could easily get that high or higher if Nvidia stock really starts falling.'”
Verdict: Options expire January 2027; Burry subsequently escalated the trade, shorting Nvidia outright at $198.09 by June 30, 2026 and adding December 2026 and June 2027 puts in August 2026.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Mar 28, 2026Deadline Mar 28, 2028
“For the next couple years at least, the entire AI industry is going to be defined by this fact: demand is going to wildly outstrip supply.”
Verdict: Resolves on whether AI compute/inference demand continues to exceed available supply (sold-out capacity, HBM and data center constraints) through early 2028; narrowed from the original post, which also argued that the winners will be products with the margin to pay for tokens.
PendingSafety & RiskSaid Mar 26, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Congress could pass bipartisan artificial intelligence legislation within months — a national framework built on the White House's four-page blueprint pairing child-safety measures with federal preemption of state AI laws: "We've gotten a very good reception from Capitol Hill. This is an area where I think we're willing and happy to work with Democrats."”
Verdict: Made in the same interview in which Sacks disclosed he had exhausted his 130-day special-government-employee limit and was moving to co-chair PCAST. As of late September 2026 no federal AI framework has been enacted: the preemption text released by a bipartisan House group on June 4, 2026 remains a discussion draft rather than an introduced bill, and while the House passed the KIDS Act child-safety package on June 29, 2026, it awaits Senate action.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Mar 24, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Zoox will launch its robotaxi service to some members of the public in Austin and Miami later this year [2026], and will have 100 robotaxis on public roads once its service scales in Las Vegas and San Francisco and testing begins in the two new cities.”
— Zoox, Amazon-owned autonomous vehicle company; expansion announced while awaiting NHTSA approval to charge fares (CEO). CNBC, March 24, 2026
Verdict: As of the announcement, Zoox said rides in Austin and Miami would start with employees and their families before opening its Explorers waitlist; the company had served 350,000 riders and was awaiting an NHTSA decision on operating up to 2,500 vehicles commercially.
PendingSafety & RiskSaid Mar 24, 2026Deadline Jan 1, 2030
“My end-of-the-world bet with @ESYudkowsky is now in its NINTH year. I WILL win on January 1, 2030. Disagree? I'll bet anyone with a public reputation at 10:1. How CAN you bet on the end of the world? Simple: The optimist prepays the pessimist.”
Verdict: Restates Caplan's side of the January 2017 bet in which he prepaid Eliezer Yudkowsky $100 for $200 CPI-adjusted if the world has not been ended by nonaligned AI before 12:00am GMT on 1 January 2030.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Mar 23, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Nvidia's updated guidance implies calendar 2027 revenue growth closer to 40% year over year, versus analyst consensus of about 30% — expectations for CY27 are still too low, and 'demand is tracking well above even high expectations.'”
Verdict: Resolves on Nvidia's calendar-2027 revenue growth; Munster raised his CY27 estimate sharply (to ~90%) after Nvidia's August 2026 guidance.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Mar 20, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“I don't expect AI systems will be as smart as humans in all ways by 2028 — 'but I don't think it's absolutely necessary... you don't need to be as smart as people in all their ways in order to be very transformative.' The fully automated, multi-agent AI researcher OpenAI plans to have by 2028 will nonetheless tackle problems that are too large or complex for humans to cope with.”
Verdict: Stated alongside OpenAI's two-stage plan — an intern-level autonomous AI research assistant by September 2026 and a fully automated multi-agent AI researcher by 2028; resolves at the end of 2028.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Mar 16, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“NVIDIA and Uber will launch a global fleet of entirely NVIDIA software-driven autonomous vehicles, built on NVIDIA DRIVE Hyperion, starting in Los Angeles and San Francisco in the first half of 2027 and scaling across 28 cities on four continents by 2028.”
Verdict: Deployment is staged — data-collection vehicles, then supervised operation, then Level 4 driverless; resolves at the end of 2028.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Mar 16, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Last year we saw about $500 billion of very high confidence demand, purchase orders for Blackwell and Rubin through 2026... Right here where I stand, I see through 2027, at least $1 trillion.”
Verdict: Doubles the $500 billion Blackwell/Rubin figure Huang gave in 2025; NVIDIA CFO Colette Kress confirmed after the keynote that the $1 trillion covers only Blackwell and Rubin. Resolvable against cumulative Blackwell/Vera Rubin orders and revenue reported through the end of calendar 2027.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Mar 12, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“A built-in-China humanoid robot's bill-of-materials cost was $35,000 in 2025 but will be roughly cut in half to below $17,000 by 2030, driven by scale effects and continued improvements in component design; by 2030 linear actuators will account for the largest BOM share (27%), followed by rotary actuators (24%) and dexterous hands (19%).”
Verdict: 2026 is not over; the starting point looks demanding — the International Federation of Robotics counted only about 7,000 humanoids sold worldwide in 2025 for industrial and professional service use.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Mar 10, 2026Deadline Mar 10, 2031
“Within three to five years, AMI plans to produce "fairly universal intelligent systems" that could be used for almost any task requiring intelligent machines, such as autonomous driving and robotics.”
Verdict: Made the day AMI Labs announced a $1.03bn seed round at a $3.5bn pre-money valuation; the company has no product or revenue yet, and CEO Alexandre LeBrun said at least a year of pure research lies ahead.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Mar 6, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“This will likely complete the first leg in a larger correction, as we mount a bounce that makes a lower high into later 2026. [S&P 500, after a break of the 6,780 'line in the sand' heading toward 6,500–6,300.]”
Verdict: The first part played out — the S&P 500 broke 6,780 and bottomed at 6,316 on March 30, 2026, inside her 6,500–6,300 target zone; the claim resolves incorrect if the subsequent bounce sets a new all-time high before the end of 2026.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Mar 5, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“I think AGI by end of 2027 should be ~8% now. [AGI defined as AI that can automate 99% of all 2024-era remote tasks at a cost less than an equivalently skilled human.]”
Verdict: An upward revision from his July 2025 estimate of 2%; resolves at the end of 2027.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Mar 5, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2042
“I think I'd forecast: ~2026-2030 -- AI replaces ~all AI researchers; ~2027-2033 -- AI replaces ~all white collar industry; ~2032-2040 -- AI replaces ~all human industry; ~2033-2042 -- All humans dead or obsolete.”
Verdict: A claim of roughly 3–10x AI-driven deflation in real purchasing power by 2040; resolvable against real income/price data at that date.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Mar 4, 2026Deadline Oct 31, 2027
“Today, in fact, we have line of sight to achieve AI revenue from chips, just chips, in excess of $100 billion in 2027. We have also secured the supply chain required to achieve this.”
Verdict: Broadcom reiterated the >$100 billion fiscal 2027 figure in June 2026 and raised it to about $115 billion in September 2026; fiscal 2027 ends in late October 2027.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Mar 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2041
“ASI combined with physical AI such as humanoid robotics will comprise 10% of global GDP in 10 to 15 years, rising to 30% over 30 years.”
Verdict: Resolves on whether AI/robotics output reaches roughly a tenth of world GDP by the early 2040s; nothing close today.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Feb 27, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2046
“We are closer than before, yet many decades away from an AI that matches human intelligence. If you stick with the original definition — aligned with what people genuinely imagine AGI to be — we remain very, very far away. [AGI defined as AI that can do any intellectual task a human can, such as learning to drive a truck through a forest or writing a PhD thesis.]”
Verdict: Operationalized as no AGI (AI able to perform any intellectual task a human can) by the end of 2046, the earliest reading of 'many decades away'; in the same interview Ng metaphorically put progress at 2% over the past year with 'another 49 years to go.'
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Feb 26, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Data centers could consume 9%–17% of U.S. electricity generation by 2030 — more than double current use of 4%–5% — with eight states seeing much higher percentages; these projections are about 60% higher than EPRI projected in 2024.”
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Feb 26, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Google might have no profits in 2027: with roughly $180 billion (Google) and $200 billion (Amazon) of AI infrastructure capex, hyperscaler profits disappear by 2027.”
Verdict: Alphabet has guided to $175–185B of 2026 capex against ~$165B of 2025 operating cash flow, so the test is whether reported 2027 profit/free cash flow collapses toward zero.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Feb 24, 2026Deadline Jan 1, 2326
“Superintelligent AI systems that can out-think humans will take three centuries to create — not the few years many AI experts believe. "I did not expect my latter life would be spent assuaging people's fears of things that don't exist. I thought we were done with witches."”
Verdict: The three-century figure is Brooks' estimate as reported by the Globe; Max Tegmark, who expects superintelligence soon, responded that Brooks is 'quite out of touch.'
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Feb 19, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“We reiterate our expectation of positive Adj. EBITDA for the full fourth quarter of 2026, with 2027 expected to be our first full year of Adj. EBITDA profitability; we first noted these expectations in 2022, underscoring the predictability of our model and a consistent record of execution.”
Verdict: Q4 2026 has not yet been reported; on the Q2 2026 call management reiterated the target (implied Q4 2026 adjusted EBITDA of roughly $8 million) and credited AI-driven claims automation for a record-low 5% LAE ratio versus an industry average of about 9%. Full resolution requires FY2027 results.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Feb 17, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“By 2030, there will be no such thing as IT services. There will be no such thing as BPO. Those are gone.”
Verdict: Resolves when the class of 2028 graduates in June 2028; the Daily reports Altman framed AGI as likely to arrive 'within the next few years.' Note the ceremony date is reported inconsistently by the Daily itself (Friday Feb. 13 vs. 'Saturday evening').
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Feb 13, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2036
“I have a strong view—99%, 95%—that all this will happen in 10 years. I think that's just a super safe bet. And then I have a hunch—this is more like a 50/50 thing—that it's going to be more like one to two, maybe more like one to three. [On reaching a 'country of geniuses in a data center.']”
Verdict: Amodei separately put the ten-year probability at ~90% elsewhere in the same conversation; the trackable commitments are near-certainty of a 'country of geniuses in a data center' by 2036 and a 50/50 hunch that it arrives within one to three years of February 2026.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Feb 12, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“ARC-4 is in the works, to be released early 2027. ARC-5 is also planned. The final ARC will probably be 6-7. The point is to keep making benchmarks until it is no longer possible to propose something that humans can do and AI can't. AGI ~2030.”
Verdict: Notable because Chollet is widely cast as an AGI skeptic; the post drew attention (including from OpenAI's Noam Brown) for putting his AGI estimate within about five years.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Feb 12, 2026Deadline Aug 31, 2027
“White-collar work, where you're sitting down at a computer, either being a lawyer or an accountant or a project manager or a marketing person — most of those tasks will be fully automated by an AI within the next 12-18 months.”
Verdict: He cited software engineering — where many engineers now report AI-assisted generation of the vast majority of their code — as the leading indicator for other professions.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Feb 5, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“With such strong demand for our existing offerings and seminal opportunities like AI, chips, robotics, low earth orbit satellites, we expect to invest about $200 billion in capital expenditures across Amazon in 2026, and anticipate strong long-term return on invested capital.”
Verdict: Context: Amazon's 2025 capex was roughly $131 billion; the $200 billion plan was already raised to about $220 billion in July 2026, so the figure will likely be exceeded, but it resolves on full-year 2026 results.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Feb 4, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“For the full year 2026, we expect CapEx to be in the range of $175 billion to $185 billion, with investments ramping over the course of the year. We're investing in AI compute capacity to support frontier model development by Google DeepMind, and to meet Cloud customer demand.”
Verdict: Context: Alphabet spent $91.4 billion in 2025; it has already raised 2026 guidance twice since this forecast — to $180-190 billion and then $195-205 billion in July 2026 — so the original range looks likely to be exceeded, but it resolves on full-year 2026 results.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Feb 2, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“For full year 2026, we expect revenue of between $7.182 – $7.198 billion — a 2026 revenue growth guide of 61% year-over-year — and U.S. commercial revenue in excess of $3.144 billion, representing a growth rate of at least 115%.”
Verdict: FY2026 is not yet complete; through H1 2026 Palantir is tracking well ahead of this initial guide (Q2 2026 revenue +93% y/y), and the company has since raised the full-year guide twice.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Feb 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Klarna's headcount will fall from about 3,000 to under 2,000 by 2030 as AI scales across operations: "I want to be honest about the fact that I do think there's going to be a very big shift... it's going to be a lot of turmoil in this."”
Verdict: Resolves on Klarna's reported headcount at end-2030; the company has already gone from roughly 7,000 to about 3,000 employees through cuts and unreplaced attrition.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jan 29, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2035
“Summer peak demand is forecast to grow by 224 GW over the next 10 years, a more than 69% increase over the 2024 LTRA forecast, with new data centers for artificial intelligence and the digital economy accounting for most of the projected increase.”
Verdict: The assessment covers 2026–2035; the 224 GW summer figure is about a 24% increase over 2025 peak demand and reflects the highest compound peak-demand growth rates NERC has tracked since 1995.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jan 29, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2035
“MISO forecasts its peak total internal demand at 127 GW during the 2026 summer season and expects that summer demand will grow to 143.7 GW by 2035; the largest contributor to this accelerated demand growth is data center additions, with 18 GW of data center loads projected by 2035.”
Verdict: NERC classifies MISO as normal risk in 2026, elevated in 2027 and high risk from 2028 onward on the back of this demand trajectory; the 143.7 GW figure resolves against MISO's actual 2035 summer peak internal demand.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Jan 28, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“We expect to have fully autonomous vehicles in probably somewhere between a quarter and half of the United States by the end of the year, pending regulatory approval... even if it is city-by-city, we expect to be in dozens of major cities by the end of the year.”
Verdict: As of mid-2026 Tesla had expanded robotaxi service to a handful of additional metros (Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Las Vegas) with fleets still reported in the dozens per city, well short of the year-end target.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jan 28, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“We anticipate 2026 capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, to be in the range of $115-135 billion, with year-over-year growth driven by increased investment to support our Meta Superintelligence Labs efforts and core business.”
Verdict: Benchmark: Meta's total costs and expenses were $117.69 billion in 2025; resolves with full-year 2026 results.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jan 28, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“"Our generative AI book of business now stands at more than $12.5 billion... We enter 2026 with momentum and in a position of strength, giving us confidence in our full-year expectations of more than 5 percent constant currency revenue growth and an increase of about $1 billion in year-over-year free cash flow" (2025 free cash flow was $14.7 billion).”
Verdict: Tracking poorly: after a July 14, 2026 profit warning and Q2 revenue of $17.16 billion (up just 1%), IBM cut its 2026 constant-currency revenue growth target to 4–5% on July 22, 2026, while maintaining the ~$1 billion free cash flow increase.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jan 28, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“ASML expects 2026 total net sales to be between €34 billion and €39 billion, with a gross margin between 51% and 53%.”
Verdict: ASML raised this outlook to €43–45 billion in July 2026, suggesting the initial range will prove too low; the full year is not yet reported.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jan 28, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“In 2025, WFE came in close to $110 billion. Our initial 2026 view is for WFE to be in the $135 billion range, with the growth in spending remaining constrained by a shortage of available clean room space.”
Verdict: Follows Anthropic's January 2026 publication of Claude's constitution; judgement will rest on Anthropic model cards and third-party alignment evaluations at year end.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jan 22, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2041
“Over the next 12-15 years, 1.2 billion young people in the emerging markets will become eligible for a job in the sense that they will come to the age of 18. And yet those very same economies are currently projected to produce around 400 million jobs.”
Verdict: Banga has repeated the same demographic-versus-jobs gap (1.2 billion entrants against roughly 400-420 million projected jobs) throughout 2026; the outcome cannot be assessed until the late 2030s.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jan 22, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Tesla's Optimus robots will probably be available for sale to the public by the end of next year [2027]; "probably later this year, by the end of this year [2026], I think they'll be doing more complex tasks and still deployed in an industrial environment."”
Verdict: Deadline is end of 2027; as of September 2026 Optimus remains in limited internal use, and Musk acknowledged in January 2026 that no Optimus robots were yet doing useful work in Tesla's factories.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jan 21, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“In 2025, at ~$500 billion, annual investment in data center systems was nearly 2.5x the average from 2012 through 2023; this category of investment will continue to inflect and could triple to ~$1.4 trillion in 2030 (a ~30% compound annual growth rate).”
Verdict: Resolves on 2030 global data center systems investment versus the ~$1.4 trillion forecast.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jan 21, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Global real GDP growth will accelerate to 7.3% by 2030 — roughly 4 percentage points above the IMF's forecast — as five AI-centered innovation platforms converge ('The Great Acceleration').”
Verdict: Target year 2030 is still in the future; ARK frames 7% real growth as a conservative step-function increase from the ~3% historical trend.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jan 21, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Enterprise customers account for roughly 40% of OpenAI's business as of January, and I expect that figure to grow to closer to 50% by the end of the year — i.e. enterprise reaching parity with the consumer (ChatGPT) business by the end of 2026.”
Verdict: Friar told investors on August 14, 2026 that enterprise and consumer revenue 'have now crossed' — parity was reached months ahead of the year-end target — but the stated deadline has not yet passed.
PendingHealthcareSaid Jan 20, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Isomorphic Labs expects to have its first clinical trials by the end of 2026.”
Verdict: This is the revised version of Hassabis's missed end-2025 target; as of September 2026 no Isomorphic Labs trial start has been announced, and the deadline runs to 31 December 2026.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jan 20, 2026Deadline Jun 30, 2026
“Netflix plans to offer a wider array of ad formats this year, including enhanced interactive video ads that will roll out globally in the second quarter [of 2026], after testing modular interactive video ads in the U.S. and Canada in late 2025.”
Verdict: Netflix said in November 2025 it was testing modular interactive video ads in the U.S. and Canada with 'encouraging' early results and reaffirmed a global Q2 2026 rollout on the January 2026 earnings call; no independent confirmation that the worldwide rollout was completed within Q2 2026 was found, so the outcome cannot yet be judged.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jan 20, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“The UAE is anticipating its first shipments of advanced AI semiconductors 'within months', which will allow the first 200MW of the planned 1GW Stargate cluster to come online; beyond that, the plan is to produce 'anywhere between 200 to 500MW per quarter of additional capacity, on an ongoing basis' to eventually build out 5GW.”
Verdict: G42 was cleared for 35,000 Nvidia GB300-class systems in November 2025; as of September 2026 the first 200MW had not been confirmed operational.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jan 20, 2026Deadline Jan 20, 2027
“I have engineers within Anthropic who say, 'I don't write any code anymore. I just let the model write the code. I edit it. I do the things around it.' I think we might be six to 12 months away from when the model is doing most, maybe all of what we do end to end.”
Verdict: The twelve-month horizon runs to January 2027; resolves on whether models are doing most or all of a software engineer's work end-to-end.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jan 19, 2026
“The probabilities that AI will not bust are slim to none. It meets every condition of the railroads and the Internet. It's a powerful idea that's attracted everybody's money... And so my guess is Nvidia will lead it down, and all the others will follow for a while, and then out of the ashes several of them will once again inherit the world.”
Verdict: Colossus 2 is indeed the largest tracked AI data center, but the gigawatt claim was premature and the April upgrade slipped: Epoch AI's satellite analysis in January 2026 found only ~350 MW of cooling capacity and expected 1 GW no earlier than May, and as of September 2026 Epoch still estimated Colossus 2 at about 946 MW of IT power, projecting ~1,531 MW only in Q1 2027.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jan 15, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“In the short term, technologically enabled productivity gains could continue to slow employment growth in the US, driving the unemployment rate up from 4.4% to 5.0%+ and encouraging the U.S. Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates. Thereafter, deregulation and other fiscal stimuli should turbocharge the impact of lower interest rates and accelerate GDP growth during the second half of 2026.”
Verdict: Resolves at the end of 2026 on the US unemployment rate and second-half GDP acceleration; US growth slowed to a 1.5% annualized pace in Q2 2026, so the second-half acceleration remains untested.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jan 15, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“We would not be surprised to see nominal US GDP growth hover in the 6-8% range during the next few years, thanks to 5-7% growth in productivity, 1% growth in the labor force, and -2% to +1% inflation.”
Verdict: "The next few years" is read as through 2028; nominal US GDP growth, productivity and inflation over that window will settle it.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jan 15, 2026Deadline Jan 15, 2031
“I think in five years' time, everybody will have their own AI companion, which will know them so intimately and so personally that it will come to live life alongside you. It will see what you see, hear what you hear, understand your context, your preferences, your motivations, and it'll feel like an ever-present aid or friend that is there to help you navigate life's big challenges.”
Verdict: Resolves in January 2031 on whether near-universal, persistently context-aware personal AI companions (seeing and hearing what the user does) have arrived.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jan 15, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Nvidia will grow revenue more than 65% year over year in 2026, well above Wall Street's roughly 50% consensus — bottom line: AI infrastructure growth in 2026 is likely to exceed expectations.”
Verdict: Munster reiterated the above-65% CY2026 view in February 2026 as the Street moved toward ~55%; calendar-2026 revenue will not be fully known until Nvidia's fiscal Q4 2027 report in early 2027.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jan 15, 2026Deadline Jan 20, 2029
“The objective is to bring 40% of Taiwan's entire chip supply chain and production to the United States within President Trump's current term — under a deal in which Taiwanese chip and tech companies invest at least $250 billion in U.S. capacity, with another $250 billion in government-guaranteed credit: "That's what they get if they don't build in America, the tariff's likely to be 100%."”
Verdict: Taiwan's Vice Premier Cheng Li-chiun publicly called the 40% relocation target "impossible" in February 2026, and analysts broadly agree; resolves by the end of Trump's term.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jan 15, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“We raise our forecast for the revenue growth from AI accelerators to approach a mid-to-high-fifties percent CAGR for the five-year period starting from 2024 [through 2029].”
Verdict: Raised from the mid-40s percent CAGR TSMC guided in 2025; management reconfirmed the mid-to-high-50s range on subsequent 2026 calls.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jan 15, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“We forecast the foundry 2.0 industry to grow 14% year over year in 2026 and expect our own revenue to increase close to 30% in U.S. dollar terms, with a long-term revenue CAGR approaching 25% over the 2024–2029 period.”
Verdict: Full-year 2026 results are due in January 2027; TSMC raised its 2026 outlook and capex again at the July 2026 (Q2) call as AI demand stayed strong.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jan 15, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“The revenue contribution last year [2025] from advanced packaging is slightly over 10%; it's about 8% in 2024. We expect it to grow faster than the corporate average and account for low-teens percent in 2026.”
Verdict: Resolvable only with full-year 2026 results in January 2027; TSMC has continued to expand CoWoS and other advanced packaging capacity through 2026.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jan 14, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“After holding within a tight range of about 213,000 employees since the end of 2023, Bank of America's headcount will decline in 2026: the No. 1 expense lever is to 'work the headcount through operational excellence and applications of new technologies, including AI' — every time someone leaves, we evaluate whether the role needs to be replaced.”
Verdict: Tracking toward the prediction so far: on the Q1 2026 call (April 15, 2026) management said headcount was down about 1,070 from year-end 2025 through attrition, but the full-year 2026 figure is not yet known.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jan 14, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“My median for the longest 50% time horizon reported as of Dec 31, 2026 is 24 hours (20th percentile 15 hours, 80th percentile is that it's too long for METR to accurately bound in practice but probably around 40 hours in 'reality').”
Verdict: Baseline was Claude Opus 4.5 at ~5 hours; by March 2026 Cotra wrote that Opus 4.6's estimated ~12-hour horizon made her 24-hour median look 'much too conservative.'
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jan 14, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“ECI [Epoch Capabilities Index]: 169 by the end of 2026. The current top score is 154, achieved by Gemini 3 Pro, and it has recently been growing at 15.5 points per year; an ECI of 169 corresponds to a score of about 85% on FrontierMath Tiers 1-3.”
Verdict: Resolves against Epoch AI's published ECI leaderboard at end-2026.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jan 14, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Annualized Dec AI revenue: $110 billion. The combined annualized revenue of OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI (i.e. December revenue * 12) was $30.5 billion in December 2025; my median for December 2026 is $110 billion (20th percentile $60 billion, 80th percentile $300 billion).”
Verdict: Cotra notes she badly underestimated 2025 AI revenue growth (predicting ~$17B against an actual ~$30.5B).
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jan 14, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“A task I'm pretty sure AIs can't do today and probably still won't be able to do as of Dec 31 2026 (I give it only about a 20% chance): organize a typical-complexity wedding with 100 guests — find a suitable venue that meets the budget and constraints, and handle the rest of the planning.”
Verdict: In her 13 August 2026 mid-year scoring ('Hurtling through 2026'), the wedding-planning prediction had not been falsified.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jan 14, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“About 80% confidence: by Dec 31 2026 AI will be able to play Pokemon or a similarly difficult video game at least as well as a typical ten year old, with no special fine-tuning and only a generic scaffold that doesn't do any more hand-holding than the Claude Plays Pokemon scaffold.”
Verdict: Unresolved as of Cotra's 13 August 2026 mid-year scoring.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Jan 14, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“(near) Full automation of AI R&D by Dec 31, 2026: 10%. My operationalization is: for whichever AI company is in the lead as of Dec 31, 2026, if you fired all its members of technical staff, its rate of technical progress on relevant benchmarks would be slowed down by less than 25%.”
Verdict: Rescoring in August 2026, Cotra said capability milestones were arriving 30–50% faster than she forecast but declined to mechanically raise this probability.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Jan 14, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Top-human-expert dominating AI by the end of 2026: 5%. This means an AI system that achieves ambitious long-term goals in any domain better than the world's leading expert in that domain, using a comparable amount of time and cost. The main pathway I see to this is automation of AI R&D sometime in mid-2026 → rapid intelligence explosion → TEDAI by end of year.”
Verdict: Cotra restated this ~5% figure when rescoring her forecasts in August 2026.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Jan 14, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Self-sufficient AI by the end of 2026: 2.5%. By this I mean a set of AI systems, together with enabling physical infrastructure, such that if humans all died then those AIs could 'survive' and continuously grow their own population indefinitely (including repairing and maintaining the physical substrate they run on).”
Verdict: Cotra restated this ~2.5% figure when rescoring her forecasts in August 2026.
PendingSafety & RiskSaid Jan 14, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Unrecoverable loss of control by the end of 2026: 0.5%. By this, I mean a situation in which some population of AI systems is operating autonomously without being subject to the control of any human or organization, and is robust against even highly-coordinated efforts by the US military to destroy it or bring it back under control.”
Verdict: Cotra restated this ~0.5% figure when rescoring her forecasts in August 2026.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jan 14, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“About 80% confidence: by Dec 31 2026 AI will solve the hardest problem in the 2026 IMO (models got gold in the 2025 IMO but all failed to solve problem 6, which is typically the hardest problem in any IMO).”
Verdict: Formally open until Dec 31, 2026, but effectively already achieved: Cotra reported in August 2026 that at the July 2026 IMO in Shanghai multiple AI systems scored a perfect 42/42.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jan 14, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“A task I think is less likely (about 20%) by Dec 31 2026: from scratch, write a paper that could get published in a top theoretical computer science or math journal / conference.”
Verdict: Deadline still open; in August 2026 Cotra initially judged this fallen — AI agents produced formally verified proofs or counterexamples for more than a dozen open questions — but concluded resolution was more ambiguous than she had assumed.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jan 14, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“About 80% confidence: by Dec 31 2026 AI will be able to organize a child's birthday party for 20ish guests — find a good time that works for guests of honor, compose an invite email, keep track of RSVPs, order the right amount and diversity of food, order cake / decorations / piñata on the right theme — while abiding by relevant constraints like budget and dietary restrictions.”
Verdict: As of her August 2026 review this was not yet demonstrated: 'it feels like every component is there…but at the same time we're not seeing it in action.'
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jan 14, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“About 80% confidence: by Dec 31 2026, from a high-level one-paragraph prompt, AI will make a 4 minute short video with at least two characters where a series of somewhat-coherent plot beats happen and there's no glaringly obvious visual incoherence or degeneracy.”
Verdict: Cotra rescored her ten 2026 task forecasts in August 2026, judging that milestones overall were arriving 30–50% faster than she had predicted.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jan 14, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“A task I think is less likely (about 20%) by Dec 31 2026: from a one-paragraph high-level prompt, make a >10 minute short film that's hard for at least me (not a film buff) to easily distinguish from the kinds of short films that make it into film festivals.”
Verdict: Cotra rescored her ten 2026 task forecasts in August 2026, five months before the deadline.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jan 14, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“About 80% confidence: by Dec 31 2026, from a high-level one paragraph prompt, AI will make a decent visual novel (simple choose-your-own adventure game) that offers at least two hours of gameplay with a similar quality to the trashiest visual novel games you can find on Steam.”
Verdict: Cotra rescored her ten 2026 task forecasts in August 2026, noting AI agents' writing quality remains poor.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jan 14, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“A task I think is less likely (about 20%) by Dec 31 2026: from a one-paragraph high-level prompt, make an original text adventure game that offers at least ten hours of gameplay that I consider to be as good as Counterfeit Monkey, or an original visual novel that I consider to be decidedly better than Long Live the Queen.”
Verdict: In her August 2026 review, Cotra's AI assistants agreed this was 'pretty clearly not met yet.'
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jan 14, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“A task I think is less likely (about 20%) by Dec 31 2026: get a win rate in the upcoming Slay the Spire 2 comparable to a top player who's been playing for 50 hours — assuming no pre-training on guides for the game, a generic harness, and no game-specific fine-tuning.”
Verdict: As of August 2026 not falsified: the Agentic STS project used a highly game-specific harness and its agents (6/10 runs at Ascension 0, 0/21 at Ascension 2) remained well below top human level.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jan 13, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“2026 will be a 'Goldilocks' year: US real GDP growth surging toward 5%, accompanied by falling inflation — potentially outright deflation — driven by an AI-led productivity boom.”
Verdict: Full-year 2026 real GDP growth and inflation will decide it; US growth ran 2.1% in Q1 2026 and slowed to 1.5% annualized in Q2 2026, well below the ~5% path.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jan 10, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“[On 2026 US real GDP growth:] I'm going to go for 5%. Within a rounding here, I believe 5%. [Sacks attributed the 'Trump boom' to AI-driven productivity gains, tax cuts and deregulation.]”
Verdict: Resolves on full-year 2026 US real GDP. So far it is tracking well below 5%: BEA reported real GDP growth of 2.1% (annual rate) in Q1 2026 and 1.5% in Q2 2026.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jan 10, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“[On 2026 US GDP growth:] 4.6% — the most conservative of the besties' forecasts, supported by AI-driven productivity gains, 2026 tax cuts and strong asset prices.”
Verdict: Full-year 2026 US GDP data will not be available until early 2027; on the same episode Sacks forecast close to 5%, Palihapitiya 5%–6.2% and Calacanis 4%–5%.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jan 9, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Yes. AI will increase demand for knowledge workers, not decrease it. I would refer you to Aaron Levie's post called Jevons Paradox for Knowledge Workers — as the cost of a resource goes down, the aggregate demand for it actually increases. In the past it's been very expensive to generate code... I think it's going to increase massively now because the cost of generating code is coming down so much.”
Verdict: Offered as Sacks' contrarian belief for 2026, directly opposing the entry-level white-collar displacement thesis (e.g. Amodei's "bloodbath" and Calacanis' own 2026 pick that young white-collar workers are the biggest losers); resolvable against 2026 US professional/knowledge-work employment data at year end.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jan 9, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“[On 2026 US real GDP growth:] I think the lower bound is five. I think the upper bound is six-two [6.2%]... if we print six, the only country in the modern world that we think of as a quasi-peer competitor that has printed six is the Chinese. [Driven by AI-led productivity, deregulation and tax cuts.]”
Verdict: Not resolvable until the full-year 2026 figure is published, but BEA data so far show real GDP growth of 2.1% annualized in Q1 2026 and 1.5% in Q2 2026 — far below the 5-6.2% range.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jan 9, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“I will pick copper. We are still completely underestimating how short we are in terms of the global demand-supply dynamics of a handful of critical elements that we need... the asset that is set up to go absolutely parabolic is copper — it is the most useful, cheap, amenable, conductive material that we have.”
Verdict: Tracking well so far: copper set successive records in 2026, crossing about $14,779 per tonne on the LME in early September 2026 (roughly +45-48% year over year), but the full-year outcome is not yet settled.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jan 9, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“Two years: Atlas humanoid robots will start working on the factory floor at Hyundai's plant in Ellabell, Georgia by 2028 — and to get there, 'we need to be able to bring a new task to bear in a day or two... because I think in a factory, there's literally hundreds of tasks and the tasks evolve.'”
Verdict: Deadline is 2028; Atlas training began at Hyundai's Robotics Metaplant Application Center in Georgia in mid-2026, one step ahead of the promised assembly-line deployment.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jan 7, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“SPARC will nearly be completed by the end of 2026 and will produce its first plasma energy in 2027.”
Verdict: First plasma had earlier been guided to 2026 before slipping to 2027; CFS reiterated the 2027 first-plasma target in February 2026.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Jan 7, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“Ford will introduce eyes-off (Level 3) driving technology in 2028, upgrading BlueCruise from hands-free to eyes-off and debuting it on a roughly $30,000 all-electric vehicle built on Ford's Universal EV platform: "Autonomy shouldn't be a premium feature."”
Verdict: Deadline is end of 2028; the first Universal EV platform vehicle, a midsize electric pickup, is slated for 2027 with eyes-off following in 2028.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jan 6, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“By 2030, AI could represent half of all data center workloads with inference becoming the primary driver. AI only represented about a quarter of all data center workloads in 2025, with training driving most of the demand; a significant shift is anticipated in 2027, when inference workloads could overtake training as the dominant AI requirement.”
Verdict: Published alongside JLL's forecast that global data center capacity nearly doubles from 103 GW to about 200 GW by 2030; the workload-share milestone cannot be judged until 2030.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jan 5, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“2026 will be a year of 'joy, depression, and rally': a possible 15–20% correction in the latter half of the year as the market tests the new Fed chair, before the S&P 500 still finishes 2026 at 7,700.”
Verdict: As of late September 2026 the S&P 500 was near 7,230; Lee repeated the summer-correction warning in May 2026, and neither the 15–20% drawdown nor the 7,700 year-end level has yet resolved.
Partially correctSelf-DrivingSaid Jan 5, 2026Deadline Mar 31, 2026
“The all-new Mercedes-Benz CLA will be the first passenger car to ship with NVIDIA's full-stack DRIVE AV software, including the new Alpamayo reasoning model, launching on U.S. roads in the first quarter of 2026.”
Verdict: The CLA did reach U.S. customers in early 2026 on the MB.OS/NVIDIA DRIVE AV platform, but only a limited MB.DRIVE ASSIST PRO package (steering, lane-change and parking assist, a $1,950 option) was active; NVIDIA's own page and Mercedes subsequently said the full Alpamayo-powered level 2++ point-to-point capability is 'expected by end of this year' — so the Q1 full-stack launch slipped.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jan 5, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“All Atlas deployments are already fully committed for 2026, with fleets scheduled to ship to Hyundai's Robotics Metaplant Application Center (RMAC) and Google DeepMind in the coming months. The company plans to add additional customers in early 2027.”
Verdict: On track so far: Atlas pilot operations began at Hyundai's RMAC in June 2026 and the center moved to full operations in September 2026; Google DeepMind fleet deliveries are not yet independently confirmed.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Jan 1, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“I do not mean to imply that my median timeline to High Weirdness or everyone potentially dying remains unchanged at 2029... while I did find 2025 advances very impressive and impactful, I do think in terms of timelines events last year should on net move us modestly farther back on full High Weirdness expectations to something like 2030, still with high error bars, but that number is loosely held.”
Verdict: Mowshowitz lengthened his median for 'full High Weirdness' from 2029 to roughly 2030 after reviewing 2025's advances, explicitly holding the number loosely; the target year has not arrived.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“By 2030 the number of employed managers in the United States will be no lower than it was at the end of 2025 according to the BLS (occupational code 11-0000).”
Verdict: A direct test of claims that AI will thin out management ranks; resolvable against BLS employment data for management occupations (SOC 11-0000) measured against the end-2025 level.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“As AI-driven compute demands grow, we expect custom silicon to grow as a share of compute spend: we believe custom ASICs could grow to over a third of the compute market by 2030.”
Verdict: Resolves on custom (non-GPU) accelerators' share of AI compute spend in 2030.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jan 1, 2026Deadline Jan 1, 2036
“As with self driving cars, most of the early players in humanoid robots will quietly shut up shop and disappear. Those that remain will pivot and redefine what they are doing, without renaming it, to something more achievable and with, finally, plausible business cases. But make no mistake, the successful humanoid robots of tomorrow will be very different from those being hyped today.”
Verdict: Written as commentary on his ten-year technology predictions, which run through January 1, 2036.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jan 1, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Here is a CEO of a humanoid robot company saying that they will be in 10% of US households by 2030. Absolutely no technology (even without the problems above) has ever come close to scaling at that rate. The declarations being made about humanoid robots are just not plausible.”
Verdict: Resolves against Brooks only if humanoid robots are in roughly 10% of US households (on the order of 13 million homes) by the end of 2030.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Jan 1, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“In my original predictions I said that electric car (and I meant battery electric, not hybrids) sales would reach 30% of the US total no earlier than 2027. A bunch of people on twitter claimed I was a pessimist. Now it looks like I was an extreme optimist as it is going to take a real growth spurt to reach even 10% in 2026, i.e., earlier than 2027.”
Verdict: Resolves on full-year 2026 US battery-electric share of new vehicle sales, which Brooks tracks quarterly in the scorecard; the 2026 figure is not yet final.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2040
“A 3ft or taller soft (including elements printed, woven, or grown) humanoid robot will hit the market by 2040 for less than a $400 price point (2026 dollars inflation adjusted).”
Verdict: Registered on the Long Now Foundation's Long Bets register with a 2040 maturity date; no soft humanoid robot at anything near a $400 price point exists today.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Jan 2026Deadline Sep 30, 2026
“So here's my prediction: inflation-adjusted GDP in the third quarter of 2026 will not be more than 3.5% higher than the third quarter of 2025 — i.e. we will not see the above-average growth an AI-powered takeoff would imply.”
Verdict: Already-published BEA data make >3.5% year-over-year arithmetically unreachable: real GDP grew 1.4% SAAR in Q4 2025, 2.5% in Q1 2026, and 2.2% in Q2 2026 (third estimate, Sept 30, 2026), a cumulative level gain of about 1.5% — so Q3 2026 would need roughly 8% annualized growth to clear the threshold. Tracking estimates for Q3 were far below that (Atlanta Fed GDPNow 3.5% on Oct 20, 2026; consensus ~3.2%; Pantheon 2.5%), implying year-over-year growth near 2.5%. The BEA advance estimate lands in late October 2026, but no plausible print reverses the verdict.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jan 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“We should exceed one billion in revenue by the end of the year [2026] — up from about €300 million of annual recurring revenue reported in September 2025.”
Verdict: Mistral reiterated the ~€1 billion 2026 revenue target at its AI Now Summit in May 2026; full-year figures are not yet available.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Dec 30, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“When World Labs was founded, spatial intelligence was still a bit early — but not so early that it would take another 5 to 10 years. I believe that in the next one to two years, it will experience explosive growth. [The transition from 'language generation' to 'world generation' bringing an application-level explosion in spatial intelligence.]”
Verdict: Made shortly after World Labs released Marble, its first commercial world model; the two-year window runs through the end of 2027.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Dec 28, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“I think we're going to see AI get even better. It's already extremely good. We're going to see it having the capabilities to replace many, many jobs. It's already able to replace jobs in call centers, but it's going to be able to replace many other jobs.”
Verdict: Hinton was asked for his 2026 predictions after calling 2025 a pivotal year; he tied the forecast to AI task length roughly doubling every seven months. The 2026 outcome is not yet judgeable.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Dec 25, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“The reality is there's one chip in the world fueling the AI revolution, and that's Nvidia, and numbers are significantly underestimated — 15% to 20% at a minimum going into 2026. You put that together, I think we're looking at a $250 stock in a base case [by the end of 2026].”
Verdict: Nvidia traded around $227 on September 22, 2026 (market cap ~$5.6 trillion), about 10% below the $250 base case with roughly a quarter left in the year.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Dec 24, 2025Deadline Dec 24, 2030
“xAI will have more AI compute than everyone else combined in <5 years.”
Verdict: Posted in response to SemiAnalysis compute rankings; days later Musk announced a third Memphis building taking the Colossus site toward 2 GW, while Epoch AI's tracked 86 AI data centers totalled about 13 GW of IT power as of September 2026.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Dec 20, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“I would guess that by December 2026 the RSI [recursive self-improvement] loop on algorithms will probably be closed, resulting in another inflection point to an even faster pace, perhaps around 70-80 day doubling time.”
Verdict: Made in a thread arguing that AI progress is piecewise-exponential, with inflection points as recursive self-improvement loops close on data, algorithms, hardware and manufacturing; resolves at the end of 2026.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Dec 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Tech stocks will be up over 20% in 2026 as the 2nd/3rd/4th derivatives around the AI Revolution take shape across software/chips/infrastructure.”
Verdict: Apple–Google Gemini talks were already being reported in late 2025; the test here is a formal, publicly announced partnership between the two companies during calendar 2026.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Dec 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“The Apple-Google AI partnership and resulting subscription service will drive Apple's market cap to $5 trillion in 2026.”
Verdict: Ives' accompanying $350 Apple price target (raised from $320 on December 8, 2025) implies roughly a $5 trillion valuation; resolves on whether Apple's market cap touches $5 trillion during 2026.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Dec 16, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Waymo will be "meaningful" to Alphabet's financials as soon as 2027, as the company eyes "aggressive" expansion in the coming year.”
Verdict: Deadline is end of 2027. At the time of the prediction Waymo operated paid service in Austin, the Bay Area, Phoenix, Atlanta and Los Angeles, with ~450,000 weekly paid rides and a planned 2026 expansion to 11 more US metros plus London.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Dec 15, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Musk is now driving Tesla into its next stage of growth as "wartime CEO" and we expect Robotaxis to be rolled out aggressively to over 30 US cities in 2026.”
Verdict: Resolves at the end of 2026 on whether Tesla's robotaxi service is operating in more than 30 U.S. cities.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Dec 15, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Heading into 2026 this marks a monster year ahead for Tesla/Musk as the autonomous and robotics chapter begins. We believe Tesla hits a $2 trillion market cap in 2026 and in a bull case scenario $3 trillion by end of 2026…as the AI chapter takes hold at TSLA.”
Verdict: Resolves on Tesla's market capitalization at the end of 2026 (base case $2 trillion, bull case $3 trillion).
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Dec 12, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“We all predict a time in the next five years, maybe in the next 10 years, where these capabilities do start to emerge and systems like this could set their own goals, or they could improve their own code, or they could act autonomously.”
Verdict: Target date set to the near end of his stated 'five years — maybe 10 years' range; the outer bound would be 2035.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Dec 11, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“The Nasdaq will end the year up +10% primarily driven by the AI trade — we're still early in AI and now believe we are entering year 3 of a 5 year bull market that will likely end with the market leveling off rather than a sharp collapse.”
Verdict: Resolves on the Nasdaq's full-year 2026 price return; Deepwater's own scorecard showed the Nasdaq up ~22% in 2025.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Dec 11, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Hyperscaler Capex growth will be up +50% [in CY26] — The Street is looking for Capex growth for AMZN, GOOG, META, and MSFT to be 33% y/y in CY26, down from 64% growth in CY25. We believe this is low and the AI infrastructure buildout will continue throughout CY26.”
Verdict: Resolves once the four hyperscalers report full-year 2026 capex; Munster raised his own estimate to ~65% growth in early March 2026.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Dec 11, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“We don't expect any of the leading AI companies to go public [in 2026]. While talk of IPOs for OpenAI, xAI, Databricks, Cursor/Anysphere, and Anduril will likely increase, we don't anticipate any of them pursuing an IPO next year. This is a positive sign for the AI trade given it's unlikely the market peaks until these companies have gone public.”
Verdict: None of the five named companies had listed directly as of late September 2026, though SpaceX's June 2026 IPO (post-xAI merger) and Anthropic's confidential S-1 complicate the scoring; final call at year-end.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Dec 11, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Tesla will begin fully autonomous Robotaxi operations (without a safety driver) in 5 cities [in 2026] — my guess is they launch in 8-10 cities, with 5 (Austin, Dallas, SF, Phoenix, and Vegas) not using a safety driver.”
Verdict: Tesla was running driverless Model Y and, from September 2026, Cybercab rides in Austin plus service in several other metros; the five-city driver-out count resolves at year-end.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Dec 11, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Tesla will miss delivery expectations for FY26 — the Street is looking for 16%; we believe next year deliveries will be flat to up 5%. A miss on the delivery number doesn't change the Tesla investment case, which is built on FSD, Robotaxi and Optimus.”
Verdict: Resolves with Tesla's Q4 2026 delivery release in early January 2027; 2025 deliveries were down an estimated ~7%.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Dec 11, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Waymo will be doing +1m weekly paid rides by the end of the year [2026], up from 450k in December 2025 — at 1m rides per week, Waymo would capture about 1.3% of annual rides in the US.”
Verdict: As of early September 2026 Waymo was reporting roughly 500,000 paid rides per week across ~14 metros, so the 1M/week target remains open.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Dec 11, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Google will be the best performing Mag 7 stock in CY26 — Google is in the strongest position when it comes to a fully integrated AI stack. Gemini is a leading model, its user base is expanding faster than OpenAI's, Search is integrating AI effectively with ads reportedly on the way, and GCP continues to hold its ground in the infrastructure buildout cycle.”
Verdict: Resolves on full-year 2026 total return rankings among the Magnificent 7.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Dec 11, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“The S&P 500 will rise to 7,700 in 2026, extending the bull market to a fourth year: 'After 3 years > 20% yearly gains, bull market still alive. The significant Wall of Worry is a tailwind for bull market.'”
— Tom Lee, Head of Research, Fundstrat Global Advisors (Wall Street). CNBC, December 11, 2025
Verdict: The target implied an 11.8% gain from the December 10, 2025 close; the S&P 500 was around 7,230 in late September 2026, roughly 6% below the target with a quarter left.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Dec 11, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Small cap tech will outperform the broad tech trade [in 2026].”
Verdict: Alphabet was the top-performing Magnificent Seven stock through the end of June 2026 (up roughly 13%, the only one of the seven to beat the S&P 500), while Apple rose about 9%. Apple only became the group's year-to-date leader after an April–July surge, i.e. after the H1 window closed.
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Dec 9, 2025Deadline Dec 30, 2025
“There will be Tesla Robotaxis operating in Austin with no one in them, not even anyone in the passenger seat, in about three weeks. I think it's pretty much a solved problem, we're just going through validation right now.”
Verdict: Three weeks later Austin robotaxi rides still arrived with a safety monitor up front; Tesla only began offering public rides with no one in the vehicle on January 22, 2026, about six weeks after the promise and after at least four similar missed projections.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Dec 9, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“U.S. power demand will climb to a record 4,199 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025 and further increase to 4,267 billion kWh in 2026, up from the 2024 record of 4,110 billion kWh, driven in part by data centers dedicated to artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency.”
Verdict: The 2025 leg looks essentially correct — EIA later reported a second straight record of roughly 4,195 billion kWh for 2025 — while the 2026 figure resolves at year-end; mid-2026 STEO vintages put 2026 demand near 4,268 billion kWh.
CorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Dec 9, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“We expect to reach 80 GW of combined gas turbine slot reservation agreements and backlog by year-end 2025 — a book of business that stretches into 2029.”
Verdict: GE Vernova's Q4 2025 results (reported January 28, 2026) showed gas power equipment backlog and slot reservation agreements rising from 62 GW to 83 GW sequentially — above the 80 GW the company guided to three weeks earlier.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Dec 9, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“I expect gas turbine reservations to be sold out through 2030 by the end of 2026.”
Verdict: Tracking ahead so far: on the Q2 2026 call (July 22, 2026) Strazik said most 2030 slots were already sold and that more than half of 2031 slots should be under contract by year-end 2026.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Dec 9, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“The most important thing in the next 3-4 years is data centers in space. In every way, data centers in space, from a first principles perspective, are superior to data centers on earth. In space, you can keep a satellite in the sun 24 hours a day. The sun is 30% more intense, which results in six times more irradiance than on Earth. So you don't need a battery... Space cooling is free. You just put a radiator on the dark side of the satellite.”
Verdict: Deadline is end of 2029. Baker restated the thesis in May 2026, saying orbital compute's feasibility and economics would be proven 'within the next two years' and that it would begin capturing meaningful market share by the end of the decade.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Dec 8, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2035
“NextEra will build 15 gigawatts of new power generation for data center hubs by 2035 — a 'fairly conservative' target: 'Quite frankly, based on what we're seeing today, we'll be disappointed if we don't do more' — with potential upside to 30 gigawatts.”
Verdict: Announced alongside partnerships with Google (three gigawatt-scale campuses) and Meta; resolves in 2035.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Dec 8, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2032
“The data center hubs will help NextEra meet its target of building four to eight gigawatts of new gas-fired generation by 2032 — and considerably more by 2035 — out of a gas development pipeline that has 'now eclipsed 20 gigawatts.'”
Verdict: NextEra has secured about 4 GW of GE Vernova turbine slots toward the target; resolves at end-2032.
CorrectSafety & RiskSaid Dec 8, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“There must be only One Rulebook if we are going to continue to lead in AI. We are beating ALL COUNTRIES at this point in the race, but that won't last long if we are going to have 50 States, many of them bad actors, involved in RULES and the APPROVAL PROCESS. [Trump said he would sign the preemption executive order in the coming days.]”
Verdict: Trump signed the executive order 'Ensuring a National Policy Framework for Artificial Intelligence,' directing federal agencies to challenge and preempt state AI laws, on December 11, 2025 — three days after the post.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Dec 8, 2025Deadline Mar 31, 2029
“NextEra is restarting the shuttered 615 MW Duane Arnold nuclear plant in Iowa as a dedicated power source for a data center, funded by Google under a 25-year power purchase agreement, with expectations that the plant will be operational by early 2029.”
Verdict: The 25-year Google PPA was announced October 27, 2025; FERC has approved reconnection and NextEra's own filings put the earliest restart at Q4 2028.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid Dec 7, 2025Deadline Jan 4, 2026
Verdict: Grok 4.20 missed the 3–4 week window by a wide margin: it did not reach users until a limited beta on 17 February 2026, with the full rollout and general availability following in March 2026 — roughly two to three months later than promised. (The claim that it beat GPT-5.1 and Gemini 3 Pro came from third-party Alpha Arena trading-sim reports, not from Musk.)
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Dec 1, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“Recursive self improvement is when it's learning on its own. This is not true today. Today, when you set up one of these huge data centers, you have to tell it to learn. But the belief is that this is coming — within four years.”
Verdict: Deadline is end of 2029. The Crimson reports the timeline as four years; other write-ups of the same talk render it as 'two to four years,' so four years is the generous reading. Schmidt added that AI generating medical conjectures and discovering new facts 'looks like it's very close.'
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Dec 1, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2032
“Filling a one-gigawatt AI data center costs about $80 billion today, so the roughly 100 GW being announced implies about $8 trillion of capital — requiring roughly $800 billion of annual profit just to service it, and on a five-to-seven-year payback that means $1–2 trillion of incremental annual revenue: "That much incremental revenue I don't believe is there... It's my view that there's no way you're going to get a return on that" (compounded by AI accelerators that must be used within about five years before being replaced).”
Verdict: Resolves against the five-to-seven-year payback window Krishna invoked (i.e. by roughly 2032): the test is whether the AI buildout produces the $1–2 trillion of incremental annual revenue his arithmetic requires. Krishna simultaneously argued AI is not a bubble and that generative AI will unlock trillions of dollars of enterprise productivity.
IncorrectJobs & EconomySaid Dec 1, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“December will be strong for markets, with the S&P 500 potentially reaching 7,200–7,300 by year-end — a possible 10% gain from current levels.”
— Tom Lee, Head of Research, Fundstrat Global Advisors; CIO, Fundstrat Capital (Wall Street). Seeking Alpha, December 1, 2025
Verdict: The S&P 500 finished 2025 at 6,845.50, roughly 5–7% below the 7,200–7,300 range; December was essentially flat (-0.05% for the month) rather than a 10% melt-up.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Dec 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Much like the 2000 episode, we expect this year to unfold in two stages: a 'Great Rotation' from tech stocks to non-tech names in the first half of 2026, followed by a broad-based selloff in stocks in the second half on the back of a weakening US economy.”
Verdict: Resolves at the end of 2026. An early-2026 rotation out of tech did occur but CNBC reported in April 2026 that it appeared to have already reversed as growth stocks regained favor; the H2 2026 broad-based selloff remains untested.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Nov 30, 2025Deadline Jun 30, 2027
“Google will launch prototype satellites carrying its AI chips into orbit in early 2027, under Project Suncatcher, as the first step toward data centers in space: 'One of our moonshots is to, how do we one day have data centers in space so that we can better harness the energy from the sun?'”
Verdict: Narrowed from the bundled 'space data centers will be a new normal in a decade' framing to the dated, checkable piece: two prototype Project Suncatcher satellites built with Planet Labs, carrying TPUs, launching by early 2027.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Nov 29, 2025Deadline Jun 30, 2028
“By mid-2028, cognitive labor becomes economically worthless — actually negative value: humans become the dumbest entity on the team and there is no market for negative-value labor.”
Verdict: Deadline is mid-2028; Mostaque has made the same ~1,000-day argument in his book 'The Last Economy' and in late-2025 podcast appearances, framing agentic 'digital twins' plus collapsing token costs as driving human cognitive labor to negative value.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Nov 25, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2045
“It will take '5 to 20 years' to build a system that learns as efficiently as a human being — the capability that leads to superintelligence — and it will not come from continuing to scale pre-training, which has run its course; we're moving from the age of scaling back to the age of research.”
Verdict: Resolves on whether a system with human-level learning efficiency (Sutskever's bar for superintelligence) exists by 2045, the upper end of his stated band.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid Nov 24, 2025Deadline Jan 23, 2026
“Executive Order "Launching the Genesis Mission": "Within 60 days of the date of this order, the Secretary [of Energy] shall identify and submit to the APST a detailed list of at least 20 science and technology challenges of national importance that the Secretary assesses to have potential to be addressed through the Mission."”
Verdict: DOE identified 26 Genesis Mission National Science and Technology Challenges — exceeding the 20 minimum — which were published on February 12, 2026 following the APST's 30-day review window, timing consistent with an on-time submission (the exact internal submission date to the APST was not made public).
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Nov 24, 2025Deadline Aug 21, 2026
“"Within 270 days of the date of this order, the Secretary shall... seek to demonstrate an initial operating capability of the [American Science and Security] Platform for at least one of the national science and technology challenges" — i.e. a working Genesis Mission AI science platform by August 21, 2026.”
Verdict: The deadline has passed but the outcome is not yet publicly adjudicable: DOE contracted Accenture Federal Services in April 2026 for an 'early operating capability' sprint on the critical-minerals (CM2US) challenge and demonstrated a platform build at the July 22, 2026 Genesis Mission Summit, but DOE has not publicly confirmed that formal initial operating capability was demonstrated by August 21, 2026, and independent coverage of the summit called the mission 'not yet measurable.'
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Nov 21, 2025Deadline May 31, 2028
“We have 900 days left — within roughly 900 days AI's economic and social impact becomes irreversible, with most screen-based economic work replaced.”
Verdict: Deadline is roughly May 2028 (900 days from the November 21, 2025 interview); resolution will turn on whether most remote/screen-based work has in fact been automated by then.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Nov 21, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Nvidia will continue to be sold out until sometime in 2027 — the guidance underscores how early we still are in the AI buildout.”
Verdict: Nvidia said cloud GPUs were sold out at its November 2025 results and its Grace Blackwell rack-scale systems remained sold out through its fiscal Q1 2027 report in May 2026; the call resolves on whether supply catches up to demand at some point in 2027.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Nov 19, 2025Deadline Jun 30, 2026
“Gemini 3 shows that scaling laws for pretraining are intact. This is the most important AI datapoint since the release of o1. This means that Blackwell models are likely to show a significant increase in performance when they come out in the second quarter of 2026. GPT-5 was not evidence of a slowdown in scaling laws.”
Verdict: Blackwell-trained frontier models in fact shipped earlier than Q2 2026 — OpenAI's GPT-5.3 Codex (February 2026) was trained and served entirely on GB200 NVL72, and xAI's Grok 4.5/4.6 were built on GB200/GB300 — but whether they represent the 'significant increase in performance' Baker predicted is a judgment call that needs a benchmark-based resolution.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Nov 19, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“I am raising my 2030 target on Nvidia from $10 trillion to $20 trillion market cap: Nvidia has a credible path to reach a $20 trillion market cap by 2030 with an aggressive product road map for Blackwell, Rubin, Rubin Ultra and eventually Feynman's gigawatt-scale AI factories.”
Verdict: Nvidia's market cap was roughly $5.5 trillion in September 2026; the thesis assumes data center revenue compounding at about 36% annually through 2030.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Nov 19, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Nvidia is well on its way to reaching my firm's brand-new updated estimate for a $230 billion data center quarter by Q4 of 2030, or $930 billion for the full year.”
Verdict: Implies roughly 36% annual growth in Nvidia's data center revenue from the ~$194 billion recorded in fiscal 2026; data center revenue reached $89.0 billion in Q2 FY2027.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Nov 19, 2025Deadline Jan 31, 2027
“Nvidia will blow past the $50 billion data center segment mark this evening — one quarter earlier than my original prediction — which puts the company on the path for a $75 billion segment in Q4 of next year.”
Verdict: Nvidia reported $51.2 billion of data center revenue that evening, and by Q2 FY2027 (July 2026) the segment had already reached $89.0 billion, so the $75 billion Q4 threshold is effectively assured; it formally resolves with the Q4 FY2027 report in February 2027.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Nov 19, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2045
“I don't know what long term is, maybe it's 10, 20 years or something like that. My prediction is that work will be optional. It'll be like playing sports or a video game or something like that.”
Verdict: Musk framed AI and humanoid robots (including Tesla's Optimus) as eventually eliminating poverty and making currency irrelevant; the outer bound of his stated 10–20 year window falls at the end of 2045.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Nov 18, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“I think we're in an LLM bubble, and I think the LLM bubble might be bursting next year [2026]. But 'LLM' is just a subset of AI when it comes to applying AI to biology, chemistry, image, audio and video.”
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Nov 14, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Achieving human-level performance at most tasks — I wouldn't say all knowledge tasks — feels quite likely in the next five years. It's a fairly grounded prediction if you think about it.”
Verdict: Resolves by end-2030 on whether AI systems reach human-level performance across most (not all) knowledge tasks; distinct from Suleyman's separate, more aggressive 12-18 month white-collar automation claim.
CorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Nov 13, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“We believe 2025 [Big Tech] capex is on track to surpass $405 billion, representing YoY growth of 62% — and even today's elevated numbers could again be revised higher in 2026.”
Verdict: Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft ended 2025 with roughly $410 billion of combined capital expenditures (about $448 billion including Oracle), clearing the $405 billion mark, and the same four guided to roughly $725 billion for 2026.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Nov 13, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2035
“Asked when robots will come into our homes, Playter said it won't really happen until costs come down significantly, safety improves and capabilities increase: 'That's honestly going to take five to 10 years.'”
Verdict: Deadline is the end of 2035; as of late 2026 humanoid robots remain confined to industrial pilots, with Boston Dynamics' own Atlas aimed at factories rather than homes.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Nov 12, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Anthropic is investing $50 billion in American computing infrastructure, building custom data centers with Fluidstack in Texas and New York, with the first sites coming online throughout 2026.”
Verdict: Anthropic said the sites, expected to create about 800 permanent and 2,400 construction jobs, would come online 'throughout 2026'; resolution turns on whether at least the first Texas or New York facility is operational by December 31, 2026.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Nov 12, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“OpenAI plans to report annual losses through 2028 — burning roughly $9 billion this year on $13 billion in sales, a cash burn of about 70% of revenue, with operating losses of roughly $74 billion in 2028 — and then turn wildly profitable two years later, by 2030.”
Verdict: Later projections seen by the FT (September 2026) show roughly $278 billion of negative free cash flow from 2026 through 2030 against $856 billion of compute spending, with profitability still targeted around 2030.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Nov 12, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“Anthropic expects to break even in 2028 — two years ahead of OpenAI — forecasting its cash burn will fall to roughly one-third of revenue in 2026 and to 9% of revenue by 2027.”
Verdict: Later reporting (April 2026) indicated Anthropic had pushed its profitability target to 2029, with 2026 expected to be its largest loss year.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Nov 11, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“AMD's overall revenue growth will expand to about 35% per year over the next three to five years, driven by 'insatiable' demand for artificial intelligence chips.”
Verdict: AMD's own analyst-day materials set the same target (>35% company revenue CAGR, >60% data center CAGR, >80% data center AI CAGR); resolution keys on realized revenue CAGR from the 2025 base through the 2028-2030 window.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Nov 11, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“The total market for AI data center parts and systems will reach $1 trillion per year in 2030, representing roughly 40% annual growth, and AMD is positioned to lead that transformation.”
Verdict: AMD's data center segment revenue reached $6.7 billion in Q2 2026 alone, and the company has guided to data center revenue more than doubling in 2027, but the full-year 2027 result is not yet known.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Nov 10, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“Understating depreciation by extending useful life of assets artificially boosts earnings — one of the more common frauds of the modern era... Yet this is exactly what all the hyperscalers have done. By my estimates they will understate depreciation by $176 billion 2026-2028. By 2028, ORCL will overstate earnings 26.9%, META by 20.8%.”
Verdict: Resolves against hyperscaler depreciation schedules and reported 2026-2028 earnings, in particular whether Oracle's and Meta's 2028 earnings prove overstated by roughly the quoted percentages under shorter server useful lives.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Nov 6, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“We expect to end this year above $20 billion in annualized revenue run rate.”
Verdict: OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar subsequently said the company ended 2025 with more than $20 billion in annualized revenue, and August 2026 Bloomberg reporting on a $40B+ run rate described it as roughly double the end-2025 figure. Numbers are company-reported rather than audited.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Nov 6, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“We expect to... grow to hundreds of billions [in annualized revenue] by 2030. We are looking at commitments of about $1.4 trillion over the next 8 years.”
Verdict: Open until end of 2030; OpenAI's run rate was reported above $40 billion in August 2026, so the trajectory is early but the target requires roughly another order of magnitude.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Nov 6, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2065
“It's going to affect every application, every job, every customer interface. My guess is the developed world will be working three and a half days a week in 20, 30, 40 years, and have wonderful lives.”
Verdict: Dimon gave a 20-to-40-year range, so the entry is graded at the far end (2065) on average hours worked in developed economies; a ~3.5-day norm would be roughly a 30% cut from today's full-time week.
PendingHealthcareSaid Nov 6, 2025Deadline Nov 6, 2028
“We have a line of sight to medical superintelligence in the next two to three years — expert-level performance at the full range of diagnostics, alongside highly capable planning and prediction in operational clinical settings.”
Verdict: Announced alongside Microsoft's 'Towards Humanist Superintelligence' essay and the MAI-DxO diagnostic orchestrator results; the companion blog post uses the looser phrase 'in the next few years.'
CorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Nov 6, 2025Deadline Apr 30, 2026
“Production of the Cybercab will begin at Gigafactory Texas in April 2026: "We should be able to achieve a net result of less than a ten-second cycle time, basically a unit every ten seconds."”
Verdict: The first production Cybercab rolled off the Giga Texas line on February 17, 2026 and formal/volume production began in April 2026, matching the stated timeline; the ten-second cycle time, however, has not been demonstrated — only tens of units were visible at the site weeks after the April start.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Nov 6, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Now we must double every 6 months.... the next 1000x in 4-5 years — Google has to double its AI serving capacity every six months to meet demand, delivering 1,000 times more compute, storage and networking for essentially the same cost, power and energy level.”
Verdict: Still open: XPeng commissioned its IRON humanoid robot production lines in September 2026 (first unit walked off the line) and raised over $900M for the robotics unit in August 2026, with mass production still targeted for year-end 2026.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Nov 5, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“XPENG will launch three Robotaxi models in 2026 and will also initiate trial operation of Robotaxi; XPENG Robotaxi will be China's first full-stack self-developed and mass-produced Robotaxi.”
Verdict: Partially on track as of late 2026: the first of the three robotaxis, based on the GX SUV, entered series production in Guangzhou in May 2026, with pilot operations planned for the second half of 2026; the other two models and trial service remain to be confirmed.
CorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Nov 5, 2025Deadline Mar 31, 2026
“By the end of December 2025, XPENG will invite pioneer users to co-create and experience VLA 2.0, and in Q1 2026 it will fully roll out VLA 2.0 to XPENG Ultra models.”
Verdict: XPeng opened nationwide VLA 2.0 test drives across 732 stores on March 11, 2026 and began the over-the-air rollout to P7 Ultra, G7 Ultra and X9 Ultra owners in late March 2026 — inside Q1, though at the very end of the window; the lineup-wide rollout (XOS 6.3.0) followed in September 2026.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Nov 4, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“Anthropic expects to generate as much as $70 billion in revenue and $17 billion in cash flow in 2028, fueled by rapid adoption of its business products.”
Verdict: Anthropic's run rate reached roughly $65 billion annualized by August 2026, well ahead of the pace implied by the 2028 projection.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Nov 3, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“For full year 2025: we are raising our revenue guidance to between $4.396 – $4.400 billion, and our U.S. commercial revenue guidance to in excess of $1.433 billion, representing a growth rate of at least 104%.”
Verdict: FY2025 revenue came in at $4.475 billion, modestly above the top of the guided range, and U.S. commercial revenue was $1.465 billion (+109%), clearing the 'in excess of $1.433 billion / at least 104%' bar.
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Oct 31, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“We're scaling up the number of cars — probably we'll have a thousand cars or more in the Bay Area by the end of this year, probably 500 or more in the greater Austin area.”
Verdict: By late November Musk had already cut the Austin target to roughly 60 vehicles, and independent tracking at year-end found only about 30-42 robotaxis operating in Austin; the Bay Area fleet also fell far short of 1,000 and still used safety drivers.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 31, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“First of all, we're doing well more revenue than that [$13 billion]... [Asked whether OpenAI could reach $100 billion in revenue in 2028 or 2029:] How about '27?”
Verdict: OpenAI's annualized run rate reached about $40 billion by August 2026; whether calendar-2027 revenue reaches $100 billion remains open.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 30, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2035
“Predictions that a billion jobs will be lost in the next decade because of AI are "almost certainly false": "There's no question there's job losses, but for every job loss, there's probably more than one job created. There'll be more jobs created than jobs lost."”
Verdict: Google released Gemini 3 (Gemini 3 Pro, plus the Antigravity coding platform) on November 18, 2025, comfortably within the calendar year; Deep Think and Flash variants followed in December.
CorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 29, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“We currently expect 2025 capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, to be in the range of $70-72 billion, increased from our prior outlook of $66-72 billion (and up from the $60-65 billion guided in January 2025).”
Verdict: Meta reported full-year 2025 capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, of $72.22 billion — essentially on target, a rounding margin above the top of the $70-72 billion range.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 29, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Our current expectation is that capex dollar growth will be notably larger in 2026 than 2025. We also anticipate total expenses will grow at a significantly faster percentage rate in 2026 than 2025, with growth driven primarily by infrastructure costs.”
Verdict: Benchmark: 2025 capex grew about $33 billion (from $39.23B to $72.22B); Meta's January 2026 guidance of $115-135 billion implies growth of $43-63 billion, so the claim looks on track but resolves only with full-year 2026 results.
Partially correctEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 29, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Project Rainier is now in use with nearly half a million Trainium2 chips, and Anthropic is expected to scale to well over one million Trainium2 chips by the end of 2025 for both training and inference.”
Verdict: Amazon's Q4 2025 results (January 2026) said Trainium2 was 'fully subscribed with 1.4 million chips landed' but still described Project Rainier itself as having '500,000+ Trainium2 chips'; Anthropic only stated it was using 'over one million Trainium2 chips' in a 2026 announcement, so the one-million milestone for Anthropic appears to have slipped just past the end-of-2025 deadline.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 29, 2025Deadline Jun 30, 2026
“We will increase our total AI capacity by over 80% this year [fiscal 2026], and roughly double our total datacenter footprint over the next two years, reflecting the demand signals we see.”
Verdict: Fiscal 2026 ended June 30, 2026, but Microsoft never disclosed a total AI capacity figure to check the 80% claim; on the July 29, 2026 FY26 Q4 call Nadella said Microsoft added 88 new datacenters over the year and roughly a gigawatt of capacity in the quarter, and reiterated being 'on track to roughly double our overall capacity in just two years.'
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 29, 2025Deadline Oct 29, 2027
“We will increase our total AI capacity by over 80% this year, and roughly double our total datacenter footprint over the next two years, reflecting the demand signals we see.”
Verdict: Microsoft has reiterated the two-year doubling target on subsequent calls, saying in July 2026 that it added 88 datacenters during fiscal 2026 and about a gigawatt of capacity per quarter and remains 'on track.'
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 29, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Just this quarter, we announced the world's most powerful AI datacenter, Fairwater in Wisconsin, which will go online next year and scale to two gigawatts alone.”
Verdict: Microsoft announced on June 23, 2026 that the first Fairwater facility in Mount Pleasant, Wisconsin was complete and fully operational — ahead of the year-end deadline — while the campus build-out toward two gigawatts continues, with the adjacent second facility scheduled for 2028.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid Oct 28, 2025Deadline Sep 30, 2026
“We think it is plausible that by September of next year [2026] we have an intern-level AI research assistant.”
Verdict: On 6 September 2026 OpenAI said it had hit the 'automated research intern' goal — a system that carries out well-defined research tasks under human direction, including ones taking a skilled researcher days — and reported roughly 3.1 agent-workdays per human workday internally. The milestone is OpenAI's own self-assessment and has not been independently audited.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Oct 28, 2025Deadline Mar 31, 2028
“By March 2028 we have a legitimate AI researcher — a system capable of autonomously delivering on large research projects.”
Verdict: Still open; OpenAI said in September 2026 it was making 'strong progress' toward the March 2028 target while conceding it does not yet know how to safely reach full recursive self-improvement.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 28, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“'This is how much business is on the books. Half a trillion dollars worth so far' — cumulative Blackwell and Rubin revenue and bookings, including networking, across calendar 2025 and 2026.”
Verdict: Analysts read the figure as implying calendar-2026 data center sales well above consensus. At GTC in March 2026 Huang raised the number, saying NVIDIA now sees roughly $1 trillion of AI chip demand through 2027; final resolution needs full calendar-2026 results.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 28, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2035
“We will, by 2035, have a hugely, hugely deflationary economy.”
Verdict: Made alongside his proposal that the US government take a 10% stake in public companies to share AI-driven abundance; resolvable against US price-level data in 2035.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 28, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Enterprises will delay 25% of AI spend into 2027. AI value is failing to land: only 15% of AI decision-makers reported an EBITDA lift for their organization in the past 12 months, and fewer than one-third can tie the value of AI to P&L changes. We believe that CEOs will pull more CFOs into AI decisions... The disconnect between the inflated promises of AI vendors and the value created for enterprises will force market correction.”
Verdict: Waymo was reported at roughly 450,000 paid driverless trips per week in January 2026 — about an 80% increase over six months — while expanding to additional US cities, so reaching 1 million weekly trips by December 2026 remains open.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Oct 27, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2031
“My current median time-to-crazy in this sense is roughly 2031, but with very wide uncertainty and error bars... and I don't feel I would 'have any right to complain' if the outcome was very far off from this in either direction.”
Verdict: Consistent with his September 9, 2025 post, where he wrote that 'if you put a gun to my head for a typical AGI definition I'd pick 2031,' loosely held; target year has not arrived.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Oct 22, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“We're going to be building a million-unit Optimus production line, hopefully with the production start towards the end of next year [2026].”
Verdict: Deadline is end of 2026. Tesla decommissioned the Fremont Model S/X lines in May 2026 and began converting them for a line designed for 1 million robots/year, but start of production had slipped from 'late July or August' to 'later this year' as of the Q2 2026 update.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid Oct 22, 2025Deadline Mar 31, 2026
“We'll actually have a production-intent [Optimus V3] prototype ready to show off in Q1, probably February or March... It won't even seem like a robot. It will seem like a person in a robot suit.”
Verdict: No V3/Gen 3 prototype was shown in Q1 2026. Musk confirmed the delay on March 31, 2026, then on the April 22, 2026 Q1 call pushed the unveil to 'probably middle of this year' (later, closer to production start), citing polish and copycat concerns; it remained unrevealed as of September 2026.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Oct 22, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“GM will bring eyes-off driving to market in 2028, debuting on the Cadillac ESCALADE IQ electric SUV, beginning with highways before expanding to other models and environments.”
Verdict: GE Vernova ended 2025 with 83 GW of gas power equipment backlog plus slot reservation agreements (up from 62 GW at the end of Q3), comfortably exceeding the ~70 GW guided in October.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 22, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“In North America alone, we're seeing significant investment in Electrification, where we expect our combined serviceable addressable market to grow at approximately 10% compounded growth rate, doubling in size by 2030 — driven by expanded electrification needs, data center growth and rising digitization.”
Verdict: GE Vernova's electrification equipment backlog has continued to climb (above $40 billion by Q2 2026), but the 2030 market-doubling claim cannot be judged until the end of the decade.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Oct 22, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“X-BAT will execute initial vertical takeoffs and landings as early as fall 2026, with all-up flight testing and operational validation to follow in 2028.”
Verdict: As of June 2026 Shield AI said its first three X-BAT test assets were nearly complete and a first (tethered) VTOL sortie was targeted for late 2026; production is now discussed for roughly 2029.
Partially correctSelf-DrivingSaid Oct 22, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“We continue to operate our fleet in Austin without anyone in the driver's seat... As Elon mentioned, we are on track to remove the person from inside the car altogether, starting with Austin. [Musk on the same call: 'We are expecting to have no safety drivers in at least large parts of Austin by the end of this year.']”
Verdict: Tesla began testing Robotaxis in Austin with no occupants in mid-December 2025, but paying customers still rode with safety monitors through year-end; public driverless rides without a safety monitor only began on January 22, 2026, and then only for a small subset of the fleet — well short of 'no safety drivers in large parts of Austin' by the end of 2025.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 21, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Amazon's robotics and automation team projects that automation will let the company avoid hiring more than 160,000 U.S. workers it would otherwise need by 2027, saving about 30 cents on each item Amazon picks, packs and delivers (an estimated $12.6 billion in savings from 2025 through 2027).”
Verdict: Amazon disputes the framing, saying leaked documents give an incomplete picture and that it is still hiring at operations facilities; resolution will be judged against Amazon's U.S. operations headcount trajectory and disclosed cost-per-unit savings through 2027, with the avoided-hiring figure inherently counterfactual.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 21, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2033
“Amazon executives told the board that robotic automation — with the robotics team's ultimate goal of automating 75% of Amazon's operations — could keep the company's U.S. headcount essentially flat through 2033 even as it sells twice as many products, meaning more than 600,000 U.S. jobs it would otherwise have had to fill will not be needed.”
Verdict: Amazon's U.S. workforce was about 1.2 million when the documents leaked; the company called the leak 'incomplete and misleading.' Resolvable by 2033 against Amazon's reported U.S. headcount versus unit volume growth.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Oct 20, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2033
“I think that probably in the early 2030s we are going to see what Ryan Greenblatt calls top-human-expert-dominating AI, which is an AI system that can do tasks that you can do remotely from a computer better than any human expert.”
Verdict: Target treated as the end of the 'early 2030s' window (2033).
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Oct 20, 2025
“The window between AI automating AI research and the arrival of uncontrollably powerful superintelligence could be quite brief — perhaps a year or less: whatever progress you thought would be made by default in the next ten, twenty or thirty years might be made in a year or two or even six months.”
Verdict: Target date is an editorial inference from xAI's own Grok 5 schedule (training start September 2025, release originally signalled for end-2025/early-2026). As of September 2026 Grok 5 has still not been released — it slipped from Q1 to Q2 2026 and remains in training — so the claim cannot yet be judged.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Oct 18, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2035
“AGI is still a decade away. My AI timelines are about 5-10X pessimistic w.r.t. what you'll find in your neighborhood SF AI house party or on your twitter timeline, but still quite optimistic w.r.t. a rising tide of AI deniers and skeptics.”
Verdict: Horizon runs to roughly 2035; Karpathy's bar is an AI you can delegate to like an employee.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 17, 2025Deadline Oct 17, 2026
“OpenAI needs $400 billion in the next 12 months to pay for the compute and data centers it has publicly committed to — and to complete these deals by the end of 2026, OpenAI needs large swaths of this money by February 2026.”
Verdict: The 12-month window closes in October 2026. As of mid-2026 OpenAI had closed a March 2026 round at an $852 billion post-money valuation and was reported to have received roughly $50 billion of a $122 billion round — far below $400 billion — while raising its planned compute spending to a reported $750 billion through 2030.
PendingSafety & RiskSaid Oct 17, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“It's not imminent, but it's coming. So Anduril has an internal policy called China 27. The idea is that anything we are working on, anything that we are investing in, needs to be built with the assumption that sometime in 2027, China is going to move on Taiwan. And I might be wrong on this.”
Verdict: Luckey frames this as Anduril's internal planning assumption and explicitly hedges ('I might be wrong'); resolves on whether China takes military action against Taiwan during 2027.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 17, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2035
“We are already living in a continuous intelligence explosion and have been for decades; AGI will not produce a discrete break in economic growth but will blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of ~2% GDP growth. Asked directly whether the rate of growth will not change — 'Yes, my expectation is that it stays in the same pattern.'”
Verdict: Narrowed from a bundled 'no intelligence explosion or GDP takeoff' framing to the growth-rate component Karpathy explicitly affirmed; resolvable against US real GDP (per capita) growth staying near its long-run ~2% trend over his own stated decade-to-AGI horizon.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Oct 16, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Supported by our strong technology differentiation and broad customer base, we now expect our full year 2025 revenue to increase by close to mid-30s percent year-over-year in U.S. dollar terms.”
Verdict: Tracking far above the bar: ASML now guides 2026 net sales of €43–45 billion versus €32.7 billion in 2025, but the full year is not yet reported.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Oct 15, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Anthropic is on track to meet its internal goal of $9 billion in annualized revenue run rate by the end of 2025.”
Verdict: Anthropic exited 2025 at roughly $9 billion in annualized run-rate revenue, matching the internal goal; subsequent reporting in 2026 repeatedly cites the $9 billion year-end 2025 figure as the base for its growth.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 15, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“For 2026, Anthropic has set a base case of more than doubling to $20 billion in annualized revenue and a best case of as much as $26 billion.”
Verdict: Anthropic's annualized revenue reached roughly $47 billion by mid-May 2026 and about $65 billion by August 2026, far exceeding the target, but the year-end deadline has not yet passed.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 15, 2025Deadline Jan 31, 2030
“Salesforce announces a new long-term revenue target of $60B+ by fiscal year 2030, excluding Informatica — implying a 10%+ organic FY26 to FY30 compounded annual growth rate, up from $37.9 billion in fiscal 2025, with growth led by its Agentforce AI platform.”
Verdict: Salesforce subsequently raised the FY30 target to $63 billion (including Informatica) in February 2026; fiscal 2030 ends January 31, 2030.
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid Oct 13, 2025Deadline Jun 30, 2026
“Anduril will deliver roughly 100 units of its new AI-powered helmet and digitally-enhanced eyewear system — EagleEye — to select U.S. Army personnel during the second quarter of the upcoming calendar year [2026]. 'We're already in the production process for many of the components that are going into that.'”
Verdict: By August 2026 Anduril had put SBMC/EagleEye phase-one hardware in the 'low hundreds' in Army hands, including testing with the 75th Ranger Regiment, roughly matching the promised volume and timeframe — but Anduril clarified those phase-one units were company-owned prototypes rather than formal contractual deliveries, and phase-two prototype testing has slipped to early 2027.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Oct 10, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“I'd bet big against a Chinese lab actually having the best model at any point in 2026, but benchmarks are not leaderboards. I'd be very surprised if this happened on Artificial Analysis... I'd be less surprised if this happened on LM Arena, since it is rather hackable... I still think this is an underdog. [On the broader 'a Chinese lab tops a global leaderboard' wording: 'I'll give them maybe 55%... Manifold says 34%, and on reflection yeah I was being a coward and moderating my instincts too much, that's more like it.']”
Verdict: Written in response to the State of AI Report 2025's prediction that 'A Chinese lab tops a global leaderboard'; resolvable at the end of 2026 against Artificial Analysis and other leaderboards.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Oct 10, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“On the prediction that a real-time generative video game becomes 2026's most-watched title on Twitch: 'I'll go ahead and take the no here. Too soon. Generative games are not as interesting as people think, and they're doubling down on the 2024 mistake... GPT-5-Pro has this at 14%, Sonnet says 3%. I think Sonnet is a bit overconfident, let's say 5%... Not gonna happen.'”
Verdict: A rebuttal of the State of AI Report 2025's 2026 prediction; resolvable from Twitch's most-watched-title data at the end of 2026.
CorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 10, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Two and a half years ago, Nvidia and AMD had basically the same revenue, around $25 billion. This year, Nvidia will do about $210 billion and AMD will do roughly $33 billion — Nvidia has captured nearly 100% of the incremental AI data center revenue.”
Verdict: Nvidia reported $215.9 billion of revenue for fiscal 2026 (the year ending January 2026, essentially calendar 2025), close to Gerstner's ~$210 billion; AMD reported record full-year 2025 revenue of $34.6 billion versus his ~$33 billion. Both figures landed within a few percent of the prediction.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 10, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“This is a bet-the-farm bet by Lisa Su... Either the MI450 gets adopted and they get back into the game, or they're out... If it works, she's going to get 150 billion of incremental revenue just from OpenAI. [On OpenAI's commitment to buy up to six gigawatts of AMD MI450X GPUs over the next five years.]”
Verdict: Resolves against AMD's cumulative OpenAI-related revenue through the end of the five-year MI450X commitment (announced Oct 6, 2025); Wall Street analysts at the time modeled 'over $100 billion,' below Gerstner's $150 billion.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 10, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“On 'Datacenter NIMBYism takes the US by storm and sways certain midterm/gubernatorial elections in 2026': 'If we're talking at least two races for governor, house or senate, I think this is not that likely to happen, nor is it likely to be very high on the list of issues in general. I'm on no... I'd probably say more like 15%... I'll adjust to 25% on that.'”
Verdict: Resolves after the November 2026 US midterms; data-center siting already surfaced as an issue in the November 2025 Virginia, New Jersey and Georgia races, but Zvi's own bar is at least two governor/House/Senate races being swayed.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 10, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“On 'A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B' in 2026: 'I think this is ambitious, but variance here is really high and the correlation between the two numbers is large... Maybe 25%? Manifold says 23% so that seems good.'”
Verdict: Resolves at the end of 2026 on whether a major retailer reports over 5% of online sales via agentic checkout while AI agent ad spend reaches $5B; Zvi puts it at roughly 25%.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 8, 2025Deadline Oct 8, 2027
“I'm far more worried than others about a serious market correction — if the market is pricing in 10%, I'd say it's more like 30%; it could be six months, could be two years. AI is real and in total will pay off, just like cars and TV paid off, but most people involved in it didn't do well, and a lot of the money going in now will probably be lost.”
Verdict: The two-year window runs to October 2027. As of September 2026 the S&P 500 sits near record highs (~7,600) after an ~8% drawdown in late February–March 2026 that did not reach the conventional 10% correction threshold.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Oct 6, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“The xAI game studio will release a great AI-generated game before the end of next year [2026].”
Verdict: Deadline is December 31, 2026; xAI's game studio, announced in late 2024 and staffing up through 2025, had not shipped a title as of late 2026.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Oct 6, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Grok will make a movie that is at least watchable before the end of next year [2026] and really good movies in 2027.”
Verdict: First deadline is December 31, 2026 for an 'at least watchable' Grok-made movie, with a follow-on 2027 target for 'really good movies'; as of late 2026 xAI had released Grok Imagine video generation but no Grok-produced film.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 6, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2035
“AI and automation could destroy nearly 100 million U.S. jobs in a decade — AI could replace up to 97 million jobs in 10 years, including 89% of fast food and counter workers, 64% of accountants and 47% of truck drivers.”
Verdict: Horizon runs to 2035; the underlying estimate came from a ChatGPT-assisted analysis of occupational data commissioned by Sanders's staff.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 6, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“The first 1 gigawatt deployment of AMD Instinct MI450 GPUs for OpenAI will begin in the second half of 2026, as the first tranche of a 6 gigawatt, multi-generation agreement.”
Verdict: At AMD's Advancing AI event on July 23, 2026 the company launched the MI400 series and Helios rack platform and reaffirmed the first OpenAI MI450-class deployments for the second half of 2026, with revenue shipments of Helios said to start at the end of Q3 2026; whether a full gigawatt is deployed in 2026 is not yet determined.
IncorrectJobs & EconomySaid Oct 2, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“The S&P 500 will reach at least 7,000 by December, with potential for further gains; the government shutdown is a 'sidebar issue' — 'We would not lean bearish because of shutdowns. If stocks are down, we would be dip buyers.'”
— Tom Lee, Head of Research, Fundstrat Global Advisors (Wall Street). CNBC, October 2, 2025
Verdict: The S&P 500 never reached 7,000 in 2025: it peaked at a 6,932.05 close on December 23 and finished the year at 6,845.50 (+16.4%). His secondary call was right — the shutdown did not derail the rally and dips were bought — but the 7,000 floor was missed by about 1%.
PendingSafety & RiskSaid Oct 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2035
“Hyperintelligent machines could pose an existential threat to humanity within the next decade: AI systems trained on human language and behaviour could develop their own 'preservation goals', making them in effect competitors to the species that created them.”
Verdict: Bengio framed major AI risks as arriving in roughly five to 10 years while cautioning they could come sooner; he launched the nonprofit LawZero in June 2025 with $30 million to build 'non-agentic' safe-by-default systems.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Sixty percent of Fortune 100 companies will appoint a head of AI governance: in 2026, the complexities of navigating the patchwork of legislation in the US and regulations such as the EU AI Act will cause 60% of the Fortune 100 to hire or appoint a designated head of AI governance.”
Verdict: Forrester notes Sony, Bank of America and UBS had already made such appointments when the prediction was published; the 2026 deadline has not yet passed.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Sep 29, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Reduction of 4,000 administrative jobs by 2030 through digitalization, automation, and process consolidation: "In particular, the profound changes brought about by digitalization and the increased use of artificial intelligence will lead to greater efficiency in many areas and processes... the Lufthansa Group plans to cut a total of around 4,000 jobs worldwide by 2030, the majority of which will be in Germany." The focus will be on administrative rather than operational roles.”
Verdict: Announced at Lufthansa Group's first company-wide Capital Markets Day in six years, alongside a raised mid-term adjusted EBIT margin target of 8-10% from 2028 and plans for 230+ new aircraft by 2030; Spohr told a staff town hall days earlier that becoming "leaner in admin" meant roughly 20% fewer people in group administration. Resolution depends on group administrative headcount reported through 2030.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Sep 28, 2025Deadline Jan 20, 2029
“When I walked into this department, the United States of America had 2 percent of the market. We were producing 2 percent of the chips we need. And my objective when I leave is 40 percent. [Reaching roughly 40% domestic semiconductor production by the end of President Trump's current term, which would take north of $500 billion in local investment.]”
Verdict: Resolves at the end of Trump's term (January 2029) on the share of U.S.-consumed chips produced domestically; analysts including AEI's Derek Scissors immediately called the goal unachievable in that window.
“"It's very clear that AI is going to change literally every job. Maybe there's a job in the world that AI won't change, but I haven't thought of it." Walmart plans to keep its global headcount roughly flat at about 2.1 million over the next three years, even as revenue grows, with some jobs and tasks eliminated and new ones created.”
Verdict: Walmart's global headcount was about 2.1 million when the prediction was made; the flat-headcount horizon runs to roughly late 2028 and can be checked against Walmart's annual associate counts.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Sep 26, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2040
“We will have plenty of humanoid robots fifteen years from now, but they will look like neither today's humanoid robots nor humans. And a lot of money will have disappeared, spent on trying to squeeze performance, any performance, from today's humanoid robots. But those robots will be long gone and mostly conveniently forgotten.”
Verdict: Fifteen years from the September 2025 essay puts the horizon at 2040.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Sep 26, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2045
“The general plan is that humanoid robots will be 'plug compatible' with humans and be able to step in and do the manual things that humans do at lower prices and just as well. In my opinion, believing that this will happen any time within decades is pure fantasy thinking.”
“We are raising our price target on Tesla to $600 from $500 to reflect our view that an accelerated AI path for the company is now on the horizon and investors are underestimating the transformation underway at the company... We believe Tesla is taking major steps in advancing its AI Revolution path with autonomous and robotics front and center heading into 2026.”
Verdict: The 12-month window closed September 26, 2026 with Tesla trading around $375 (close on September 21, 2026), roughly 38% below the $600 target; closing that gap in the final trading days was not remotely plausible. The underlying thesis (autonomy and robotics driving re-rating) did not produce the predicted price outcome in the stated window.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Sep 26, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“I would certainly say by the end of this decade, so, by 2030, if we don't have models that are extraordinarily capable and do things that we ourselves cannot do, I'd be very surprised.”
Verdict: Altman gave the remark while in Berlin for the 2025 Axel Springer Award; he also said AI would take over 30–40% of today's economic tasks. Resolves at the end of 2030.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Sep 24, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2032
“By 2032, compared with 2022, Alibaba Cloud's global data center energy consumption will grow tenfold, to meet the arrival of the ASI era.”
Verdict: Target is 2032; at the 2026 Apsara Conference Wu restated the goal as Alibaba Cloud operating more than 20GW of global data center capacity by 2032.
Partially correctEnergy & Data CentersSaid Sep 23, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“This puts us on a clear path to securing the full $500 billion, 10-gigawatt commitment we announced in January by the end of 2025, ahead of schedule.”
Verdict: Across all partners OpenAI blew past 10GW on paper — Altman said on October 28, 2025 that the company had roughly $1.4 trillion and ~30GW of infrastructure commitments. But the Stargate vehicle itself did not close it out: The Information reported in February 2026 that OpenAI fell short of locking in 10GW through SoftBank and Oracle by the end of 2025, with OpenAI citing 'well over 8GW' and $400B+ in play as of early 2026.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid Sep 23, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Apptronik will showcase a new version of its Apollo humanoid robot before the end of 2025.”
Verdict: No new Apollo was shown before the end of 2025; Apptronik unveiled Apollo 2 (bipedal and wheeled-base configurations) on June 30, 2026, alongside the opening of its expanded Robot Park facility in Austin.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Sep 18, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“Huawei will launch a new Ascend AI chip every year over the next three years — the Ascend 950 series in 2026, the 960 in 2027 and the 970 in 2028 — with each generation roughly doubling the computing power of its predecessor.”
Verdict: First milestone is the Ascend 950PR, slated for Q1 2026; the roadmap resolves fully only with the Ascend 970 in 2028.
CorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Sep 15, 2025Deadline Jul 4, 2026
“"I'm pretty confident we'll have one of them before July 4th of next year, and several more during the year. It's not the back-end electricity production, but it's the whole nuclear system running, demonstrating how it will work" — the U.S. will have at least one next-generation small reactor operating before July 4, 2026.”
Verdict: Four privately built advanced test reactors reached criticality under DOE authorization by July 4, 2026 (Antares, Valar Atomics, Deployable Energy and Aalo Atomics), matching Wright's framing of a full system demonstration rather than electricity production — though these are kilowatt-scale test units, not operating commercial SMRs.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Sep 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“Before 2030, you're going to see Amazon, which has massively invested in [AI], replace all factory workers and all drivers. It will be 100% robotic, which means all of those workers are going away. Every Amazon worker, all those jobs. UPS, gone. FedEx, gone.”
Verdict: Deadline is the end of 2029. Amazon still employs roughly 1.5 million people and has continued to expand automation (and announced large corporate layoffs), while UPS and FedEx remain heavily human-staffed; Calacanis later doubled down on X, saying the take will be uncontroversial by 2035.
PendingHealthcareSaid Sep 12, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“In the next couple of years, I'd like to see that [the roughly ten years and billions of dollars it takes to design one drug] cut down in a matter of months, instead of years. That's what I think is possible. Perhaps even faster.”
Verdict: Resolves against demonstrated design-to-candidate timelines at Isomorphic Labs and peers by end-2027; Isomorphic has not yet started a clinical trial.
CorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Sep 10, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Following the Las Vegas launch, Zoox plans to debut an early rider program in San Francisco before the end of the year [2025].”
— Zoox, Amazon-owned autonomous vehicle company; plan stated at its Las Vegas public launch (CEO). CNBC, September 10, 2025
Verdict: Zoox launched its 'Zoox Explorers' early rider program in San Francisco in mid-November 2025, inviting waitlisted members of the public to take free rides in SoMa, the Mission and the Design District — comfortably ahead of the year-end target.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Sep 9, 2025Deadline May 31, 2030
“We expect Oracle Cloud Infrastructure revenue to grow 77% to $18 billion this fiscal year—and then increase to $32 billion, $73 billion, $114 billion, and $144 billion over the subsequent four years.”
Verdict: The FY2026 waypoint looks roughly on track: quarterly IaaS revenue ran $3.3B, $4.1B and $4.9B in Q1–Q3 FY26, with Q1 FY27 IaaS up 121% year-over-year. The $144 billion FY2030 figure resolves in May 2030.
CorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Sep 9, 2025Deadline Mar 31, 2026
“Over the next few months, we expect to sign-up several additional multi-billion-dollar customers and RPO is likely to exceed half-a-trillion dollars.”
Verdict: Remaining performance obligations were $455 billion when Catz spoke; one quarter later, on December 10, 2025, Oracle reported Q2 FY26 RPO of $523 billion, up 438% year-over-year — above half a trillion dollars and well inside the stated window. RPO reached $638 billion by Q4 FY26.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Sep 9, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Revenue this year will grow over 3X. So about $13 billion in revenue from about $4 billion last year. So it's tripling on a very big base as well.”
Verdict: OpenAI's audited full-year 2025 revenue came in at $13.07 billion, essentially exactly the ~$13 billion Friar projected (on a $38.5 billion net loss). The 'over 3X' framing was looser: OpenAI later reported roughly $6 billion of 2024 revenue rather than the ~$4 billion base cited, implying about 2.2x growth.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Sep 8, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“On AI's default trajectory — what happens if current trends just keep going — by 2030 growth doubles (2% → 4%), with major AI-led scientific breakthroughs.”
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Sep 8, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2040
“2040: Full automation of society. [The default trajectory of AI if current trends just keep going; the pace depends on three cruxes: robotics, intelligence returns, R&D scaling.]”
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Sep 5, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“If we look at the revenue potential for quarterly data center revenue once Blackwell and Blackwell Ultra ship in volume, this leads us to a $6 trillion valuation by next year [2026].”
Verdict: Nvidia briefly topped a $5 trillion market cap in October 2025 and stood at roughly $5.5 trillion in September 2026, after Apple reclaimed the most-valuable-company title in July 2026.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Sep 4, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“[Meta's US investment is] probably going to be something like, I don't know, at least $600 billion through 2028 in the U.S.”
Verdict: Zuckerberg later said on a hot mic that he had not been sure which figure Trump wanted; he subsequently confirmed Meta was planning $600B+ in US investment through 2028, and in November 2025 Meta formally committed to over $600 billion in the US by 2028 for AI technology, infrastructure and workforce.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Sep 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2033
“OpenAI's audacious long-term goal is to build 250 gigawatts of capacity by 2033.”
Verdict: For scale: 250GW is roughly a third of US peak power demand and more than India's total capacity; OpenAI was operating on the order of a gigawatt-scale footprint when the memo was written.
“If any of you invested in the BPO industry or IT services industry, almost certainly, or customer support, most of that will disappear in the next five years, and those are very large segments today.”
Verdict: Five-year horizon runs to late 2030; IT services, BPO and customer support remain very large employment segments today.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Sep 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2035
“About 25 companies a year drop out of the Fortune 500 list — a pace that will at least "triple or quadruple by 2035". It'll be a very fast extinction rate for Fortune 500 companies, and that's a macroeconomic trend not even remotely talked about.”
Verdict: Resolvable against Fortune 500 list turnover through 2035; Khosla repeated the same forecast at TechCrunch Disrupt in October 2025.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Aug 29, 2025Deadline Mar 31, 2026
“Nvidia will push further toward a $5 trillion market cap, likely by early 2026: 'The doubters will continue to be there. But this is really just the next phase of the story.'”
Verdict: Nvidia became the first company to top and close above a $5 trillion market capitalization on October 29, 2025 — two months after the call and ahead of Ives's 'early 2026' timing. Narrowed from the original bundled entry, which also carried his $210 base / $250 bull price targets.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Aug 27, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“AI infrastructure spending will reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion by the end of the decade: 'As the AI revolution went into full steam... the capex spend has doubled to $600 billion per year. There's five years between now and the end of the decade, and $600 billion only represents the top four hyperscalers.'”
Verdict: Huang reiterated the same $3–4 trillion 2030 forecast at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference on September 10, 2026, citing a new layer of computing and the end of Moore's Law.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Aug 27, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2034
“Humain is targeting installation of 1.9 gigawatts of AI data center capacity by 2030 and roughly six gigawatts by 2034, as Saudi Arabia seeks to become the world's third-largest AI provider after the U.S. and China.”
Verdict: Humain has since reaffirmed the 1.9GW-by-2030 and ~6GW-by-2034 roadmap while raising outside financing; its first 100MW deployment went live in August 2026.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Aug 27, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“AI revenues will reach $780 billion in 2030, a dramatic rise from $43 billion this year — nearly 80% compound annual growth. We think the market is underestimating the pace of acceleration in the AI technology cycle.”
Verdict: Target year 2030; Citi has since raised its 2026–2030 cumulative AI revenue forecast, but the $780 billion 2030 figure remains the benchmark for resolution.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Aug 26, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“By 2027, we will take the lead in achieving broad and deep integration of AI with six key fields; the penetration rate of new-generation smart terminal devices and intelligent agents will exceed 70%, the core industries of the intelligent economy will be growing rapidly, and the role of AI in public governance will be significantly enhanced.”
Verdict: No official methodology has been published for measuring the 'penetration rate' of intelligent terminals and agents, which will make resolution at end-2027 a judgement call.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Aug 26, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“By 2030, China's AI will be comprehensively empowering high-quality development, the adoption rate of new-generation smart terminal devices and intelligent agents will exceed 90%, and the intelligent economy will have become a major growth pole in China's economic development.”
Partially correctEnergy & Data CentersSaid Aug 25, 2025Deadline Jun 30, 2026
“Humain's first two data centers, in Riyadh and in Dammam in the Eastern Province, each with an initial capacity of up to 100MW, are expected to launch in the second quarter of 2026.”
Verdict: The sites were built but slipped past the Q2 target: AMD, Cisco and HUMAIN announced on 31 August 2026 that a 100MW MI355X-based deployment was live and serving customers in the Kingdom, roughly a quarter later than promised, with chip-export approvals the main constraint.
Partially correctEnergy & Data CentersSaid Aug 20, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“The AI datacenters to be built in 2025 will suffer $40 billion of annual depreciation, while generating somewhere between $15 and $20 billion of revenue.”
Verdict: The capex/depreciation arithmetic held up directionally — 2025 AI capex landed near his ~$400 billion estimate, implying roughly $40 billion of annual depreciation on a 10-year life (and more on the 3-6 year schedules now used) — and pure-play AI revenue for calendar 2025 was in his range (OpenAI reported $13.07 billion of 2025 revenue, Anthropic roughly $9 billion run-rate exiting the year). But industry-wide AI revenue including hyperscaler AI cloud lines was estimated well above $20 billion, so the revenue side of the comparison is disputed.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Aug 20, 2025Deadline Jan 1, 2033
“I now would put ~15% probability [of full automation of AI R&D] by the start of 2029 and a 45% chance by the start of 2033.”
Verdict: A downward revision from his start-of-2025 view of ~25% by 2029 and ~50% by 2033; the first checkpoint (start of 2029) has not yet arrived.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Aug 11, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Overall, we conclude that power demand for frontier training will likely grow by 2.2x to 2.9x per year in the coming years, implying that the largest training runs will reach 4-16 GW by 2030.”
Verdict: Largest known training runs were in the low hundreds of MW as of 2025; the 4-16 GW range resolves at the end of 2030.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid Aug 8, 2025Deadline Oct 8, 2025
“They no longer have anything like a clear technical lead. GPT-5 is unlikely to be ahead of the pack for more than a couple months. (And Grok 4 Heavy is already better on the ARC-AGI-2 measure.)”
Verdict: GPT-5 never held an uncontested lead: Grok 4 already beat it on ARC-AGI-2 at launch, and competing frontier releases within weeks to a few months (Anthropic's Claude 4.5 line in late September and Google's Gemini 3 Pro in November 2025) took the top of major leaderboards, prompting OpenAI's own GPT-5.1 refresh.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Aug 8, 2025Deadline Aug 8, 2028
“I believe this is going to be a trillion-dollar company in the next two to three years. There's no company that has what they have when it comes to software and use cases — price target raised from $160 to $200 on continued hyper growth demand for the company's AI product suite.”
Verdict: Palantir's market cap was about $432 billion when he made the call; it would need to roughly double again by August 2028.
IncorrectJobs & EconomySaid Aug 6, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“We'll be putting a tariff on of approximately 100 percent on chips and semiconductors, but if you're building in the United States of America, there's no charge, even though you're building and you're not producing yet.”
Verdict: No ~100% semiconductor tariff took effect. The Section 232 proclamation Trump signed on January 14, 2026 imposed only a narrow 25% tariff on certain advanced semiconductors effective January 15, 2026, with Commerce signalling that higher rates might follow for firms that do not invest in US production.
Partially correctJobs & EconomySaid Aug 4, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“For full year 2025: we are raising our revenue guidance to between $4.142 – $4.150 billion, and our U.S. commercial revenue guidance to in excess of $1.302 billion, representing a growth rate of at least 85%.”
Verdict: The U.S. commercial floor was cleared easily ($1.465 billion actual, +109% vs. the 'at least 85%' guided), but total FY2025 revenue of $4.475 billion came in well above the guided $4.142–4.150 billion range, so the specific forecast understated the outcome.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Aug 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“GPU energy efficiency has been improving by about 40% annually and is likely to continue at a similar pace — partially offsetting continued growth in training compute, which we expect to persist at 4-5x per year [through 2030].”
Verdict: Deadline is end of 2026. The personal-context/on-screen-awareness Siri features were first promised at WWDC 2024, delayed in March 2025, and were reported to be targeted at a spring 2026 (iOS 26.4) release before slipping toward the WWDC 2026 / iOS 27 cycle.
Partially correctEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jul 31, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“We project that by the end of the year, Arm's market share in data centers will be 50% — up from about 15% in 2024 — driven by the AI buildout.”
Verdict: By Arm's own (narrower) metric the target was hit: in its FY2026 results (May 2026) Arm said Arm-based CPUs account for roughly 50% of compute among the top hyperscalers. But on broader third-party measures Arm fell far short — Mercury Research put Arm-based server CPUs at only ~12.5% of total server CPU shipments in Q4 2025.
IncorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jul 30, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Helion remains on track to become the first fusion company in the world to generate electricity from its Polaris test reactor later in 2025: 'Early testing has been encouraging, and they expect to demonstrate electricity this year.'”
Verdict: No electricity demonstration was announced by the end of 2025. Polaris' announced milestones in February 2026 were measurable D-T fusion and 150 million °C plasmas, and by September 2026 Helion had softened its language and hedged on when it would sell fusion electricity.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jul 29, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“AEP expects to interconnect 24 gigawatts of new load by 2030 — 18 gigawatts of it data centers, all backed by signed customer agreements — and will raise its five-year capital plan from $54 billion to about $70 billion to serve it: 'Demand for power is growing at a pace I have not seen in my 45-year energy career.'”
Verdict: Tracking: AEP subsequently raised its capital plan to about $72 billion (Oct 2025) and $78 billion, and its contracted incremental load by 2030 to 63 GW (Q1 2026); the load itself resolves at end-2030.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid Jul 27, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“GPT-5 by itself won't be a general purpose artificial general intelligence capable of taking on arbitrary tasks. Without external aids it won't be able to drive a car reliably; it won't be able to reliably guide a robot like Optimus to be anything like as versatile as Rosie the Robot. Reasoning about the physical, psychological and mathematical world will still be unreliable, fluent hallucinations will still be common, and 'alignment' will continue to be a critical, unsolved problem.”
Verdict: GPT-5 launched in August 2025 and was not an AGI: it could not drive a car or run a humanoid robot, hallucinations and reasoning failures persisted, and alignment remained open. The rollout was poorly received — Sam Altman conceded OpenAI had 'totally screwed up' the launch — and Marcus's assessment that it 'came late and fell short' was echoed by many observers.
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Jul 23, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“I think we'll probably have autonomous ride-hailing in probably half the population of the US by the end of the year. That's at least our goal, subject to regulatory approvals.”
Verdict: At the end of 2025 Tesla's robotaxi service ran only in Austin and the Bay Area, almost entirely with human safety monitors on board, covering a negligible share of the US population; commentators put actual driverless coverage at roughly 0% versus the promised 50%.
“[On how long until an AI is as good as one of Phil Tetlock's superforecasters:] A year ago, I said two to three years. Right now, I'm going to say one to two years, which is the same prediction. I think you're way too pessimistic in your timetable.”
Verdict: Deadline is mid-2027. The Forecasting Research Institute's October 2025 ForecastBench update judged Cowen closer to the mark than Silver, with extrapolation implying parity by late 2026; as of the January 2026 leaderboard superforecasters still led the best models by about 0.017 Brier points.
“[Asked whether he wanted to revise his prediction that it would take at least 10 to 15 years for AI to be as good as human superforecasters:] I think it's probably about right. I would say, relative to a year ago, AI is about at the 40th percentile of progress I would've expected.”
Verdict: Long-dated claim (parity no sooner than ~2035-2040). In the earlier 2024 episode Silver's stated over was '15 or 20' years; FRI's October 2025 ForecastBench update judged Cowen's timeline closer, though superforecasters still topped the leaderboard in January 2026.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jul 23, 2025Deadline Jan 20, 2029
“Under the last year of Biden, China added 11 times as much power generation capacity as did the United States... Under the Trump administration... we will be adding at least as much electric capacity as China. We think we're going to catch them and maybe even have something a little bit extra.”
Verdict: Not yet due (end of term, January 2029), but early data run strongly against it: China added over 500 GW of new generating capacity in 2025 versus roughly 60-65 GW of US utility-scale additions projected by the EIA.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Jul 23, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“We exited 2024 at $3.5 billion of annual run rate savings achieved and we now believe we can achieve approximately $4.5 billion in annual run rate savings by the end of 2025.”
Verdict: IBM's 4Q25 earnings prepared remarks (January 28, 2026) state the company exited 2025 with $4.5 billion of annual run-rate productivity savings, hitting the target exactly, and raised the goal to $5.5 billion by the end of 2026.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Jul 23, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“My estimate is sort of 50% chance [of AGI] in the next five years, so by 2030 let's say. So I think there's a good chance that that could happen. [AGI defined as a system consistently matching the full range of human cognitive capabilities.]”
Verdict: A probability-weighted restatement (50% by 2030) of Hassabis's AGI timeline; resolves on whether a system matching the full range of human cognitive capabilities exists by end-2030.
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Jul 23, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“We're certainly getting there. I think it will be available for unsupervised personal use by the end of this year in certain geographies... I'm confident that by the end of this year, within a number of cities in the U.S., it will be available to end users.”
Verdict: No unsupervised FSD was released to Tesla owners in any U.S. city by the end of 2025 — the Austin robotaxi service launched with in-car safety monitors, and on the Q1 2026 earnings call (April 22, 2026) Musk pushed unsupervised FSD for consumer vehicles to Q4 2026 'at the earliest.'
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jul 22, 2025Deadline Jul 22, 2030
“The @xAI goal is 50 million in units of H100 equivalent-AI compute (but much better power-efficiency) online within 5 years.”
Verdict: For scale, 50 million H100-equivalents at H100 power draw would imply roughly 35 GW; xAI's largest site, Colossus 2, was estimated by Epoch AI at about 946 MW of IT power and roughly 1.1 million H100-equivalents as of September 2026.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jul 21, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2044
“I'm skeptical that AI will do anything dramatic anytime soon. I think AI will be like electricity or the internet: another new technology that will take decades to work its ultimate magic. [Bet terms: Holden wins $5,000 if, by the end of 2044, there has been at least one year for which it is plausible that real Gross World Product was at least 4x the real GWP of 2024, or at most 1/2 the real GWP of 2024. Otherwise, Bryan wins $1,000.]”
Verdict: Resolves at the end of 2044; Caplan is himself the designated adjudicator, with Alex Tabarrok, Maxwell Tabarrok and Zixuan Ma as backups.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jul 21, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2044
“Holden wins $5000 if, by the end of 2044, there has been at least one year for which it is plausible — according to Bryan Caplan — that at least one of the following was true: Real Gross World Product was (conceptually, as opposed to officially) at least 4x the real GWP of 2024. Or: real GWP was (conceptually, as opposed to officially) at most 1/2 the real GWP of 2024. [Karnofsky takes the AI-transforms-the-economy side at 5:1 odds.]”
Verdict: Resolves at the end of 2044; Karnofsky risks $1,000 against Caplan's $5,000, implying roughly 17% odds on a dramatic AI-driven boom or collapse in gross world product.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jul 21, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2035
“US data-center power demand will more than double by 2035, rising from almost 35 gigawatts in 2024 to 78 gigawatts, with average hourly electricity demand nearly tripling — from 16 gigawatt-hours in 2024 to 49 gigawatt-hours by 2035.”
Verdict: BNEF has already revised sharply upward: a December 2025 BNEF report put US data-center draw at 106 GW by 2035, up from roughly 40 GW today.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jul 21, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“The U.S. AI sector is on track to require at least 50 gigawatts of electric capacity by 2028, much of which will be needed to train the world's most capable models: we project that 2GW and 5GW data centers will be needed to develop single advanced AI models for Anthropic in 2027 and 2028, respectively, and we expect total frontier AI training demands in America to reach 20-25GW in total by 2028.”
Verdict: Anthropic has since repeated the 50GW figure in later announcements ('the US AI sector will need at least 50 gigawatts of capacity over the next several years'); the 2028 deadline has not arrived.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jul 20, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“we will cross well over 1 million GPUs brought online by the end of this year! very proud of the team but now they better get to work figuring out how to 100x that lol”
Verdict: OpenAI does not disclose an audited GPU count, so the milestone cannot yet be independently judged; contemporaneous reporting noted the figure refers to aggregate capacity across partners and sites rather than a single cluster.
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid Jul 17, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“We're also going to be introducing interactivity in the second half of the year — a pretty significant milestone for us — on top of Netflix's own ad-tech stack, consistent with our goal to roughly double the ads business this year.”
Verdict: The revenue half was met — Netflix more than doubled advertising revenue in 2025 (about $1.5B in Q4 alone) — but interactivity arrived only in limited form: interactive/modular video ad formats began testing in the U.S. and Canada in November 2025, with the full global rollout deferred to Q2 2026.
“On AI browsers taking over the work of recruiters and executive assistants: "I'm pretty sure [that within] six months to a year from now, it can do the entire thing" — "a recruiter's work worth one week is just one prompt: sourcing and reach outs," plus tracking responses, updating spreadsheets, resolving calendar conflicts, scheduling interviews and pushing a brief ahead of the meeting.”
Verdict: By July 2026 no AI browser agent, Comet included, could execute an end-to-end recruiting or executive-assistant workflow from a single prompt; agentic browsers still require human supervision on long-horizon, multi-app tasks, and recruiter and administrative-assistant roles have not been eliminated.
“It is reasonable to predict that we are going to have specialized AI savants in every field within five years. Now imagine their capabilities and how they will change society and our day-to-day lives.”
Verdict: Made alongside Schmidt's argument that electricity, not chips, is AI's natural limit; distinct from his separate 'AGI in three to five years' claim in that it concerns domain-specialized savants rather than general intelligence.
IncorrectJobs & EconomySaid Jul 16, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“SoftBank will deploy one billion AI agents internally this year [2025] — active 24 hours a day, 365 days a year and interacting with each other — with roughly 1,000 AI agents needed to replace each employee, because employees have complex thought processes.”
Verdict: SoftBank came nowhere near a billion: in December 2025 SoftBank Corp. publicised 2.5 million internally created AI agents as a landmark achievement — roughly 0.25% of the target — and Son had already conceded at announcement that the goal was 'challenging' and that the orchestration software did not yet exist.
“Our bullish view is that investors are still not fully appreciating the tidal wave of growth on the horizon from the $2 trillion of spending over the next 3 years coming from enterprise and government spending around AI technology and use cases — a once in a generation 4th Industrial Revolution — and we believe tech stocks will have a very strong second half of the year.”
Verdict: The three-year spending window runs to mid-2028; the shorter-term call was borne out, as tech stocks rallied strongly in the second half of 2025.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Jul 16, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“ASML expects a full-year 2025 total net sales increase of around 15% relative to 2024, with a gross margin of around 52%.”
Verdict: 2025 net sales of €32.7 billion versus €28.3 billion in 2024 is about 16% growth, and the full-year gross margin was 52.8% — both essentially as guided.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jul 14, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“We're calling the first one Prometheus and it's coming online in '26. We're also building Hyperion, which will be able to scale up to 5GW over several years. We're building multiple more titan clusters as well. Just one of these covers a significant part of the footprint of Manhattan.”
Verdict: Prometheus is under construction at Meta's New Albany, Ohio campus (gas turbines plus nuclear supply deals signed with Vistra, TerraPower and Oklo in January 2026); Meta still says it expects the cluster online sometime in 2026, so the claim cannot be resolved before 31 December 2026.
IncorrectJobs & EconomySaid Jul 10, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“So today, we're about 3% of domestic. Our goal is to have about 20% by the end of the year... We're letting the machine go ahead and set prices in a very controlled way. This is a full reengineering of how we price and how we will be pricing in the future.”
Verdict: Delta never confirmed reaching 20% of domestic fares set by its Fetcherr AI system, and reporting in August 2026 — more than seven months after the deadline — still described Delta as testing AI-set fares on about 3% of tickets, the same share Hauenstein cited on the July 10, 2025 call. After the July 2025 backlash (Senators Gallego, Warner and Blumenthal), Delta publicly retreated from the personalized-pricing framing rather than scaling it ~7x.
“We believe Palantir has a 'golden path to become the next Oracle' over the coming years and while the valuation is expensive today we see the Messi of AI as a core winner in the trillions of AI spend over the next few years — 12-month price target raised to $160 from $140.”
Verdict: Palantir traded above $180 in August 2025 and hit an all-time high of $207.52 on November 3, 2025, exceeding the $160 target well inside the 12-month window.
Verdict: Said the day Nvidia became the first company to touch a $4 trillion market cap; Nvidia became the first public company worth $5 trillion on October 29, 2025, less than four months later.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jul 7, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Blackouts could increase by 100 times in 2030 relative to today's averages if the U.S. continues to shutter reliable power plants and fails to add firm capacity: in the 'plant closures' scenario annual loss-of-load hours rise from 8.1 hours per year today to 817 hours — 'more than 800 hours per year' — with 104 GW of firm capacity set to retire by 2030 and an additional 100 GW of new peak-hour supply needed, 50 GW of it attributable to data centers.”
Verdict: 2030 is in the future, and the figure is a scenario-conditional modeling result (the 'plant closures' case); clean energy analysts have disputed the modeling assumptions.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Jul 7, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“I share this view from @S_OhEigeartaigh that AGI by 2027 likely won't happen. I define AGI as AI that can automate 99% of all 2024-era remote tasks at a cost less than an equivalently skilled human. I think the odds of achieving this by the end of 2027 are 2%.”
Verdict: Baseline forecast that Wildeford himself later revised upward to ~8%; resolves at the end of 2027.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jul 5, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Wall Street forecasts call for Box to grow its business by roughly 9% in 2025 and 7% in 2026; I think the firm can expand by closer to 10%. It's kind of a forgotten story within AI, but in my opinion it's a really powerful one.”
Verdict: Box's fiscal 2026 (ended January 31, 2026) revenue rose about 8% to $1.18 billion — short of 'closer to 10%' — but growth accelerated to roughly 11% in the quarter ended April 30, 2026, leaving the 2026 leg of the call open.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jul 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Almost certainly within the next five years, any economically valuable job humans can do, AI will be able to do 80% of it — with a few exceptions, like heart surgery or brain surgery.”
Verdict: Khosla framed the near term (to 2030) as showing up mainly as productivity gains, with more radical labor displacement after that.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jul 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Next year is when our million probabilistic bit chip is launched and should be widely accessible. That chip is a proper product, not just an experimental development kit for those trying to get ahead.”
Verdict: Extropic announced its Z1 chip (269,568 pbits per die, with PCIe cards carrying 4M+ pbits) in October 2025 with shipping slated for 2026; as of September 2026 Extropic is publishing Z1-based research, but broad commercial availability of a million-pbit product is not yet established.
“Robotics will take a little longer, but I think we'll have the ChatGPT moment in the next two to three years — a robot that doesn't need to be programmed, it learns, and it's generalized.”
Verdict: Deadline is mid-2028; resolution turns on whether a general-purpose, self-learning robot achieves a broadly recognized breakthrough moment comparable to ChatGPT's.
IncorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jun 30, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“The Commission is then planning to launch an official call for the establishment of AI Gigafactories in the EU in the fourth quarter of 2025, via the EuroHPC Joint Undertaking.”
Verdict: No official call was launched in Q4 2025 — in December 2025 the Commission deferred it while signing an MoU with the EIB, and the EuroHPC Joint Undertaking only published the AI Gigafactories call on 30 July 2026.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jun 27, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Three years ago, Copilot was already creating 40% of code in those files where it was enabled, and I predicted that 80% of code would be written by AI in 2027. Three predictions of where we are going next: 1. 90% of code will be written by agents.”
Verdict: Deadline is end of 2027; the 90%-by-agents half of the statement carries no date, so the entry resolves on the 80%-of-all-code-written-by-AI-in-2027 figure.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jun 27, 2025Deadline Dec 27, 2026
“We believe both Nvidia and Microsoft will hit the $4 trillion market cap club this summer and then over the next 18 months the focus will be on the $5 trillion club — both are foundational pieces of the biggest tech trend we have seen in our 25 years covering tech stocks on the Street.”
Verdict: The $4 trillion leg resolved correct — Nvidia crossed $4 trillion on July 9, 2025 and Microsoft followed later in July 2025 — and Nvidia reached $5 trillion in late October 2025; the 18-month $5 trillion window runs to late December 2026.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jun 25, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“"With PJM's action... we're on track to make history ahead of schedule, helping America achieve energy independence, supercharge economic growth, and win the global AI race" — Three Mile Island Unit 1 / the Crane Clean Energy Center will restart as early as 2027, about a year ahead of the original 2028 target.”
Verdict: As of September 2026 Constellation still targets 2027; FERC granted the Eddystone capacity-rights waiver in June 2026, the NRC issued a finding of no significant environmental impact, and a $1 billion DOE loan closed in November 2025.
CorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jun 20, 2025Deadline Jul 4, 2026
“The Energy Department's new Reactor Pilot Program will expedite testing of advanced nuclear reactor designs under DOE authority, outside the national laboratories and without NRC licensing, "ensuring at least three reactors achieve criticality by July 4, 2026."”
Verdict: The target was met: Antares Nuclear's Mark-0 went critical in early June 2026, Valar Atomics' Ward 250 on June 22, and Deployable Energy's Unity in the final days of June, with Aalo Atomics' Aalo-X adding a fourth on July 4 itself. Caveats: these were zero- or very low-power test-reactor demonstrations (Valar reached about 10 kWt), and several were sited at Idaho National Laboratory rather than fully off-lab.
CorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Jun 18, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Zoox will launch public robotaxi rides in Las Vegas — its first commercial market — later this year [2025], with San Francisco expected to follow in 2026 and additional locations in Austin and Miami in the next few years.”
— Zoox, Amazon-owned autonomous vehicle company; launch plan set out at the opening of its Hayward serial production facility (CEO). CNBC, June 18, 2025
Verdict: Zoox opened robotaxi rides to the public around the Las Vegas Strip on September 10, 2025, ahead of the year-end target, and San Francisco followed early in November 2025. The rides were free rather than paid, as Zoox still awaited NHTSA approval to operate commercially.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jun 17, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“"As we roll out more Generative AI and agents, it should change the way our work is done. We will need fewer people doing some of the jobs that are being done today... in the next few years, we expect that this will reduce our total corporate workforce as we get efficiency gains from using AI extensively across the company."”
Verdict: Amazon announced large corporate job cuts later in 2025, but the company attributed them chiefly to bureaucracy and culture rather than AI, and the 'next few years' window runs to 2028, so the AI-attribution part remains open.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jun 17, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“Marvell's data center total addressable market will reach $94 billion by calendar 2028 — up 26% from the prior $75 billion estimate, a 35% CAGR — with Marvell targeting roughly 20% share, up from about 13% in 2024, on the back of 18 multigenerational custom silicon design sockets.”
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Jun 16, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“I think we're quite close to digital superintelligence. It may happen this year, and if it doesn't happen this year, next year for sure. Digital superintelligence, defined as smarter than any human at anything.”
Verdict: Deadline is end of 2026; 2025 passed with no system smarter than any human at anything, so resolution rests on the remainder of 2026.
Partially correctEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jun 11, 2025Deadline Jun 11, 2026
“We currently have 23 MultiCloud datacenters live with 47 more being built over the next 12 months. We expect triple-digit MultiCloud revenue growth to continue in FY26.”
Verdict: The revenue half resolved decisively: Oracle's Multicloud AI Database grew triple digits every quarter of FY26 (1,529% in Q1, 817% in Q2, 531% in Q3, and 404% in Q4, which Oracle called its fastest-growing business ever). The buildout half fell well short of 23 live + 47 more within 12 months: around and after the June 10, 2026 Q4 FY26 report, Oracle was still described as only "more than halfway through" building 72 Multicloud datacenters (~40 rather than ~70 live), and Oracle Database@AWS reached just 20 regions as of late May 2026.
CorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Jun 10, 2025Deadline Jun 28, 2025
“Tentatively, June 22. We are being super paranoid about safety, so the date could shift. First Tesla that drives itself from factory end of line all the way to a customer house is June 28.”
Verdict: Tesla began invite-only robotaxi rides in Austin on June 22, 2025 — though with safety monitors riding in the passenger seat — and completed a factory-to-customer autonomous delivery in the final days of June, meeting both dates in the post.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jun 10, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“2026 will likely see the arrival of systems that can figure out novel insights.”
Verdict: Deadline is end of 2026 and still open; OpenAI announced in September 2026 that it had reached its internal 'automated research intern' milestone, but independent evidence of AI systems producing genuinely novel insights remains contested.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jun 10, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“2027 may see the arrival of robots that can do tasks in the real world.”
Verdict: Hedged with 'may'; resolution will turn on how demanding a reading of 'tasks in the real world' is applied.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid Jun 10, 2025Deadline Sep 27, 2026
“Starbucks' generative AI barista assistant "Green Dot Assist," built on Microsoft Azure's OpenAI platform, is piloting in 35 stores this month, with a broad launch across U.S. and Canada stores slated for fiscal 2026: "It's just another example of how innovation technology is coming into service of our partners and making sure that we're doing all we can to simplify the operations."”
Verdict: Green Dot Assist went from the 35-store June 2025 pilot to full deployment across Starbucks' North American stores in November 2025, well inside fiscal 2026, and on the Jan 28, 2026 Q1 FY2026 call management said it had 'fully scaled' the tool across North America alongside digital menu boards supporting the Green Apron service model. The predicted broad U.S./Canada launch in FY2026 happened, and earlier than required.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jun 10, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“"IBM is charting the next frontier in quantum computing... Our expertise across mathematics, physics, and engineering is paving the way for a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer — one that will solve real-world challenges and unlock immense possibilities for business." Delivered by 2029, IBM Quantum Starling is expected to be the world's first large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer, running 100 million quantum operations on 200 logical qubits — 20,000 times more operations than today's quantum computers.”
Verdict: IBM says it remains on track: the Loon and Nighthawk processors were unveiled in November 2025, and Krishna reaffirmed the 2029 Starling target on IBM's Q1 2026 earnings call.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Jun 10, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Two and a half years from now we need to be doing a million deliveries a day.”
Verdict: For scale: Zipline passed 2 million cumulative deliveries in January 2026 and about 2.5 million by July 2026, equivalent to a few thousand deliveries a day.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Jun 5, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Will the AI think it has reached AGI by 2030? I would say we will just fall short of that timeline, so I think it'll take a bit longer... I don't think we'll quite get there by 2030, so my sense is it's slightly after that — but by 2030 there'll be such dramatic progress, we'll be dealing with the consequences of that progress in a big way.”
Verdict: Notably more conservative than Google DeepMind's own Demis Hassabis and Sergey Brin, who both pointed to roughly 2030; resolves at the end of 2030.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jun 3, 2025Deadline Jun 30, 2027
“Beginning in June of 2027, Meta will take the entire 1,121 megawatts of emissions-free electricity produced by the Clinton Clean Energy Center under a 20-year power purchase agreement, which will expand Clinton's output by 30 megawatts through plant uprates and support continued operation of the plant for another two decades after the state's zero emission credit program expires.”
Verdict: Deliveries are scheduled to begin June 2027; Constellation expects the 30 MW uprate to be fully complete in 2029.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jun 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2049
“By 2049, most smartphones will be replaced by smart glasses. When billions of people living in urban areas wear these smart glasses, what they see is the superposition of the real world and the virtual world, thus forming the 'mirror world.'”
Verdict: Target date is 2049; wording is an English rendering of the Chinese-language edition.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jun 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2049
“By 2049, everyone will have an intelligent assistant like a personal secretary, that is, an AI assistant, which will be as common as the GPS navigation software on our mobile phones.”
Verdict: Target date is 2049; wording is an English rendering of the Chinese-language edition.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid May 28, 2025Deadline May 28, 2030
“AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs — in tech, finance, law and consulting — and spike US unemployment to 10-20% in the next one to five years.”
Verdict: The outer bound of the stated window is May 2030; US unemployment has so far remained far below the 10-20% range.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid May 23, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“The United States will have 10 new large nuclear reactors under construction by 2030 and 5 GW of power uprates at existing plants, on the way to deploying 300 GW of net new nuclear capacity — quadrupling capacity to 400 GW — by 2050, in large part to power AI data centers.”
Verdict: No new large reactor construction had started as of September 2026; DOE selected TVA and Holtec for a large-reactor deployment milestone in December 2025, while progress so far has been concentrated in test reactors and SMRs.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid May 23, 2025Deadline Nov 23, 2026
“Tesla price target raised from $350 to $500: 'We believe the golden age of autonomous is now on the doorstep for Tesla with the Austin launch next month… The $1 trillion of AI valuation will start to get unlocked in the Tesla story and we believe the march to a $2 trillion valuation for TSLA over the next 12 to 18 months has now begun.'”
Verdict: The 12-month leg lapsed just short: Tesla's all-time high was $498.83 intraday on December 22, 2025, versus the $500 target. The $2 trillion valuation leg runs to about November 2026, with Tesla's market cap around $1.4 trillion as of September 2026.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid May 22, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“We haven't yet demonstrated long-running agentic performance. You're seeing the first stumbling steps of that now, and should see much more conclusive evidence of that basically by the end of the year, with real software engineering agents doing real work.”
Verdict: By the end of 2025 agentic coding tools such as Claude Code and OpenAI's Codex agents were in broad production use doing genuine multi-step software engineering work, which meets the bar Douglas set. The related forecast he and Bricken made about reliable general computer-use agents ('go do my taxes') remained clearly unmet, so only the software-engineering half of their outlook landed.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid May 22, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“I think we're near guaranteed at this point to have effectively models that are capable of automating any white collar job by 2027, 2028 — or near guaranteed end of decade.”
Verdict: Douglas caveated that white-collar tasks are unusually susceptible to current algorithms because they can be retried on computers and have abundant internet data, unlike robotics or biology.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid May 22, 2025Deadline May 31, 2030
“There is this whole spectrum of crazy futures. But the one that I feel we're almost guaranteed to get — this is a strong statement to make — is one where, at the very least, you get a drop in white collar workers at some point in the next five years. I think it's very likely in two, but it seems almost overdetermined in five.”
Verdict: Douglas argued the decline would happen even if algorithmic progress stalled, because existing models are already good enough for many white-collar tasks given the right data; Trenton Bricken agreed with the five-year timeline.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid May 22, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Stargate UAE, a 1-gigawatt compute cluster built by G42 and operated by OpenAI and Oracle inside a 5-gigawatt UAE–U.S. AI campus: 'The first 200-megawatt AI cluster is expected to go live in 2026.'”
Verdict: G42 said in October 2025 that construction was 'well underway' and progressing toward the planned 2026 delivery of the first 200MW; as of September 2026 chip deliveries remained the gating factor.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid May 21, 2025Deadline Nov 21, 2026
“I don't think we're there yet, where they can run the entire company without hiring engineers, but that might be a year, 18 months away.”
Verdict: The 18-month outer bound runs to late November 2026; as of September 2026 vibe-coded startups are common but there is no evidence of companies generally operating without engineering staff.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid May 19, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Based upon what we know today, we expect headcount [in operations and account services] will trend down by about 10% over the next five years or so, even as the business grows by another more than 25%. So total productivity of above 40%. But I would take the over on this projection, and I'll bet we will deliver even more as the tools and capabilities just keep getting better.”
Verdict: Deadline is 2040; Elluswamy tied the claim to Tesla's 'sustainable abundance' mission.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid May 9, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“If the current frontier is somewhere near DeepSeek-R1, and continues to grow by 10x every 3-5 months, then reasoning training compute will probably converge with the overall frontier by 2026 — after which this growth rate could slow down within a year or so.”
Verdict: Resolves on whether reported reinforcement-learning/reasoning training compute reaches the scale of total frontier training compute, after which growth would revert to ~4x per year.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid May 8, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“In 2025, we will release AI-powered tools that can handle sophisticated software engineering and AI agents that can handle real-world tasks like making doctor's appointments and helping to run a business. These agents will be super assistants who can collaborate with workers in every industry.”
Verdict: OpenAI shipped both categories in 2025: Codex, a cloud-based software engineering agent, launched in May 2025 (broadened to Plus users in June), and Operator (January 2025) followed by ChatGPT agent (July 2025) performed real-world browsing/booking tasks. Reliability fell short of 'super assistant' framing, but the stated releases happened within the year.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid May 6, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“It's hard not to conclude that the headlines are inflated. In fact, we've done the math, and if Nvidia were able to double its output and every single chip went to ERCOT, it still wouldn't be enough chips to support some of the load forecasts in ERCOT. (MISO, PJM and ERCOT account for less than half of total U.S. power demand, but they alone are projecting demand growth notably higher than a wide range of consultants for the entirety of the U.S.)”
Verdict: Resolvable against realized load growth versus the ERCOT/PJM/MISO forecasts through 2030; ERCOT's large-load queue has continued to balloon, with ERCOT itself cautioning in 2026 that its own 4x forecast may be overstated.
Partially correctJobs & EconomySaid May 5, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Consequently, we are raising our full-year guidance for total revenue growth to 36% and our guidance for U.S. commercial revenue growth to 68%.”
Verdict: Palantir comfortably beat both targets — FY2025 revenue was $4.475 billion, up 56% (guidance implied ~$3.89–3.90 billion, +36%), and U.S. commercial revenue reached $1.465 billion, up 109% versus the 68% guided. The direction was right but the specific figures were far too conservative, and the company raised guidance three more times during the year.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid May 2, 2025Deadline Jan 20, 2029
“THE 1,000,000X BOOST: AI will become a million times more powerful during the Trump presidency. AI models are improving at a rate of about 3-4x per year... 100x better models running on 100x better chips running in data centers with 100x more chips is a total increase of 1,000,000x.”
— David Sacks, White House AI & Crypto Czar (Special Advisor for AI and Crypto); co-founder of Craft Ventures; All-In Podcast co-host (Investor). David Sacks on X, May 2, 2025
Verdict: Resolves at the end of Trump's term (Jan 20, 2029); Sacks' arithmetic requires ~100x model gains, ~100x chip gains and ~100x cluster growth over four years.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Apr 29, 2025Deadline Oct 31, 2026
“I would guess that sometime in the next 12 to 18 months, we'll reach the point where most of the code that's going toward these efforts is written by AI. And I don't mean autocomplete... you give it a goal, it can run tests, it can improve things, it can find issues, it writes higher quality code than the average very good person on the team already.”
Verdict: The 18-month window closes at the end of October 2026. Zuckerberg's claim is scoped to code going toward Meta's AI/Llama efforts, not all Meta code, and Meta has not published a verifiable figure for the AI-written share.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Apr 29, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“We expect to reduce our operational workforce by approximately 20,000 positions during 2025 and close 73 leased and owned buildings by the end of June 2025 — 'in this first phase, we will complete 164 operational closures, including 73 building closures by the end of June. And there's more to come.' The Network Reconfiguration is an expansion of Network of the Future, intended to enhance the efficiency of our network through automation and operational sort consolidation.”
Verdict: UPS's Q3 2025 release stated it had reduced its operational workforce by approximately 34,000 positions and closed daily operations at 93 leased and owned buildings in the first nine months of 2025, exceeding both the 20,000-position and 73-building targets. Note that UPS attributed the reconfiguration primarily to the planned Amazon volume glide-down, with automation and sort consolidation as the Network of the Future mechanism.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Apr 29, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2050
“Global humanoid robot revenue will reach roughly $5 trillion by 2050 ($4.7 trillion, about double the 2024 revenue of the 20 largest automakers), with global humanoid adoption accelerating to roughly 1 billion units in use by 2050.”
Verdict: Jonas framed the pacing as 'adoption should be relatively slow until the mid-2030s, accelerating in the late 2030s and 2040s'; resolves on global humanoid revenue and installed units in 2050.
Partially correctJobs & EconomySaid Apr 29, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Global humanoid robot shipments will reach 18,000 units in 2025.”
Verdict: Third-party trackers put 2025 global humanoid shipments near the forecast — Yano Research estimated about 16,580 units and Smart Analytics Global's count implies roughly 16,000 — but the International Federation of Robotics counted only about 7,000 humanoids sold for industrial and professional service use, so the 18,000 figure was at or above the top of the actual range.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Apr 29, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“In 2030-35 the annual shipment volume of humanoid robots will reach 1 million (vs. 400,000 units estimated earlier) and 10 million units globally, corresponding to an 88% CAGR in 2025-35E.”
Verdict: Deadline is 2030 (with a 2035 leg); 2025 shipments were in the 7,000–17,000 range depending on the tracker, so the forecast implies roughly two orders of magnitude of growth in five years.
PendingSafety & RiskSaid Apr 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Anthropic is doubling down on interpretability, and we have a goal of getting to 'interpretability can reliably detect most model problems' by 2027 — the analogue of an MRI for AI, arriving before models become overwhelmingly powerful.”
Verdict: Stated as an Anthropic goal with an explicit 2027 deadline; resolution will rest largely on Anthropic's own and third-party interpretability evaluations.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Apr 23, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“We expect more than 450 gigawatts of cumulative demand for new generation between now and 2030 in the United States... Frankly, it's unlike anything we've ever seen since the end of World War II.”
Verdict: Ketchum repeated the same 450 GW figure on the Q2 2025 call; resolvable against cumulative US new-generation demand/additions through 2030.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Apr 23, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“New natural gas generation will likely total just 75 GW by 2030 due to growing challenges in that sector — the cost to build a new gas plant has already tripled in the last few years and the time to build one has grown from four and a half years to six or more — while postponing the retirement of every coal plant in America would only add 40 GW to the grid.”
Verdict: Resolvable against cumulative US gas-fired capacity additions through 2030.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Apr 23, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2035
“Small modular nuclear reactors are 'still 10 years away at scale in the best scenarios,' and the opportunities to restart existing nuclear reactors are limited — while 'renewables and battery storage are the lowest cost form of power generation and capacity. And we can build these projects and get new electrons on the grid in 12 to 18 months.'”
Verdict: Resolvable in 2035 on whether SMRs are deployed at scale; NextEra itself has since identified 6 GW of SMR co-location opportunities but says it will only proceed with de-risked projects.
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Apr 22, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Tesla will launch robotaxi service in Austin in June, and robotaxis will be in many other cities in the U.S. by the end of this year.”
Verdict: Robotaxi did launch in Austin in June 2025, but by the end of the year the service ran only in Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area — the latter with a chaperone in the car — instead of the many cities Musk promised. Tesla reached roughly seven U.S. metro areas only in mid-2026.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Apr 22, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Tesla deliveries will decline about 10% in 2025 and then grow 35% in 2026, supported by an improving EV outlook, a healing brand and a new model — 2025 largely doesn't matter; it sets up a major rebound in 2026 and beyond.”
Verdict: The 2025 leg was close — deliveries fell an estimated ~7% — but the +35% 2026 leg is unresolved, and Munster himself cut his 2026 view to flat-to-+5% in December 2025.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Apr 22, 2025Deadline Jun 30, 2030
“If the observed trends continue, the leading AI supercomputer in June 2030 will need 2 million AI chips, cost $200 billion, and require 9 GW of power — the equivalent of 9 nuclear reactors, a scale beyond any existing industrial facility.”
Verdict: Trend extrapolation; the largest reported system at publication (xAI's Colossus) used 200,000 chips, cost ~$7B and drew ~300 MW.
PendingHealthcareSaid Apr 20, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2035
“I think one day maybe we can cure all disease with the help of AI... I think that's within reach. Maybe within the next decade or so, I don't see why not.”
Verdict: Hassabis was answering Pelley's question about whether AI could end all disease; the implied horizon runs to roughly 2035.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Apr 17, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2045
“Asked when he expects a drop-in remote worker replacement: 'Maybe for me, that would be around 2045.' There will be no software-only intelligence explosion — AI will be one moving part among many, like the Industrial Revolution — but full automation will eventually produce explosive growth, with the economy doubling every year or two.”
Verdict: Offered as the explicit counter-scenario to the AI 2027 forecast discussed with Scott Alexander and Daniel Kokotajlo; the 2045 figure is Erdil's stated median for a drop-in remote worker, with Besiroglu endorsing similarly long, compute- and diffusion-constrained timelines.
CorrectHealthcareSaid Apr 17, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“26 million consumer calls were more accurately directed to the right advocate by an AI agent... We expect AI will direct over half of our calls to the best resource during 2025.”
Verdict: On the Q4 2025 call (January 27, 2026) UnitedHealth reported that 'over 80% of calls from members leverage AI tools to help answer members' questions faster and more accurately,' comfortably above the 'over half' target. Caveat: the figure is company-reported and the metric shifted slightly from AI 'directing' calls to calls that 'leverage AI tools.'
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Apr 15, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“Copernicus is expected to demonstrate the viability of net energy generation using TAE's advanced beam-driven FRC approach before the end of the decade.”
Verdict: TAE has since said its smaller Norm machine performed well enough to 'leapfrog' the originally planned device, so the configuration that must show net-energy viability by 2029 may change; the milestone itself remains unmet.
Verdict: The one-year deadline passed in April 2026 without anything resembling mass replacement of programmers. AI coding agents were adopted broadly and write a large and growing share of code, but human software developers remained employed in the millions and no 'vast majority' displacement occurred.
Verdict: AI math ability advanced dramatically within the window — gold-medal-level International Mathematical Olympiad performance in July 2025 and rapid gains on research-level math benchmarks and formal proof work — but by April 2026 systems had not generally matched top graduate students across open-ended research mathematics, so the claim is only partly borne out.
“Within 3 to 5 years we'll have what is called general intelligence, AGI, which can be defined as a system that is as smart as the smartest mathematician, physicist, artist, writer, thinker, politician. I call this the San Francisco consensus, because everyone who believes this is in San Francisco.”
Verdict: Outer bound of the 3–5 year window falls in April 2030. Schmidt has since restated a similar timeline (AGI around 2028–2030, superintelligence within a decade) at the RAISE Summit in Paris in July 2025.
“The computers are now doing self-improvement... they don't have to listen to us anymore. We call that superintelligence or ASI — computers that are smarter than the sum of humans. The San Francisco consensus is this occurs within six years.”
Verdict: Six years from April 2025 puts the deadline at April 2031; contemporaneous reporting rendered this as artificial superintelligence 'by 2031.'
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Apr 9, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“One of the estimates that I think is most likely is that data centers will require an additional 29 gigawatts of power by 2027, and 67 more gigawatts by 2030.”
Verdict: Deadline is the end of 2027; Schmidt framed the figure as the estimate he considered most likely, immediately after noting that "many people think" the industry's share of US generation could go from 3% to 99%.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Apr 7, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“DOE seeks to enable the construction of AI infrastructure at select DOE sites to begin by the end of 2025, with a target of commencing operation by the end of 2027; in July 2025 DOE named Idaho National Laboratory, the Oak Ridge Reservation, the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant and the Savannah River Site as the first four sites.”
Verdict: The end-of-2027 operations target has not yet arrived, but the interim milestone slipped: DOE was still soliciting proposals with a January 30, 2026 deadline and only announced private-sector partnership agreements for Paducah and Savannah River in mid-2026.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Apr 7, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2040
“There will be a billion bipedal robots by 2040 — a figure I consider an underestimate — working 24/7, not 8 hours with breaks, potentially outproducing the entire manual labor capacity of humanity.”
Verdict: Resolves on whether roughly one billion bipedal/humanoid robots are deployed by 2040; global humanoid deployments today number in the thousands.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Apr 3, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“We predict a superhuman coder — an AI that can do any coding task the best AGI-company engineer does, while being much faster and cheaper — arrives around 2027, with automated AI research driving superintelligence shortly after.”
Verdict: AI 2027 paired a month-by-month scenario with a timelines model whose median for a superhuman coder was 2027–2028; in a December 2025 update the authors moved that median to roughly 2032 and superintelligence to about 2034, so the original target remains unresolved until end-2027 but looks unlikely on the authors' own revised model.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Apr 2, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“We are highly uncertain about the timelines until powerful AI systems are developed, but crucially, we find it plausible that they will be developed by 2030 — focusing on Exceptional AGI, defined as an AI system that matches or exceeds the 99th percentile of skilled adults on a wide range of non-physical tasks.”
Verdict: The paper's safety approach is explicitly designed around the possibility of Exceptional AGI arriving by 2030; the deadline is still in the future.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Apr 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“The duration of tasks AI models can solve doubles every seven months; in five years, AI will be at human level for programming tasks.”
Verdict: Deadline 2030; Bengio repeated the same reasoning in his December 2025 Digitalist Papers essay, putting AI planning ability at approximately human level around 2030 if the METR trend persists.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Apr 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2031
“My AGI median is 2031: 'My SC [superhuman coder] median was 2030, higher than the within-model median because I placed some weight on the model being confused... I shifted my median back by a year from SC to get one for TED-AI/AGI.'”
Verdict: Recorded as a 50% median for top-expert-dominating AI/AGI. Lifland has since pushed his median later (2033 in July 2025, 2035 in November 2025, ~January 2035 as of January 2026), but the April 2025 median of 2031 is the claim on record.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Mar 31, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“95% [of code] is going to be AI generated [within five years]. Very little is going to be line by line human-written code. Now that doesn't mean that the AI is doing the software engineering job — authorship is still going to be human.”
Verdict: Five-year horizon from March 2025 puts resolution at 2030; measured against the share of newly written code that is AI-generated.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Mar 31, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2040
“By 2040, the global demand for new infrastructure investment is $68 trillion. To put that price tag in perspective, it's roughly the equivalent of building the entire Interstate Highway System and the Transcontinental Railroad, start to finish, every six weeks—for the next 15 years... Even the world's largest tech companies, despite their billions in free cash flow, aren't equipped for this scale of investment. A single AI data center can cost between $40 billion and $50 billion.”
Verdict: Deadline is 2040; the $68 trillion is a cumulative global infrastructure investment-demand estimate cited in the letter, to be judged against realized global infrastructure investment through 2040.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Mar 30, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“We have all the funding we've raised, and our revenue is only growing — we have no plans of IPOing before 2028.”
Verdict: Perplexity remains private; in June 2026 Srinivas and CBO Dmitry Shevelenko reaffirmed 2028 as the earliest IPO date.
Partially correctEnergy & Data CentersSaid Mar 27, 2025Deadline Jun 30, 2025
“We will finalize discussions with customers about next year's [2026] HBM supply volume within the first half of this year to further enhance revenue stability.”
Verdict: SK hynix did lock in its full 2026 HBM volumes, but the company only announced the 2026 supply discussions as 'completed' alongside its third-quarter results on October 28, 2025 — several months after the promised end-June deadline.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Mar 26, 2025Deadline Jan 1, 2036
“Quantum computers. The successful ones will emulate physical systems directly for specialized classes of problems rather than translating conventional general computation into quantum hardware. Think of them as 21st century analog computers. Impact will be on materials and physics computations. [Over the decade through January 1st, 2036.]”
Verdict: Brooks says he will score these five predictions in his January 1 scorecard posts through 2036.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Mar 26, 2025Deadline Jan 1, 2036
“Self driving cars. In the US the players that will determine whether self driving cars are successful or abandoned are #1 Waymo (Google) and #2 Zoox (Amazon). No one else matters. The key metric will be human intervention rate as that will determine profitability. [Over the decade through January 1st, 2036.]”
Verdict: To be scored by Brooks in his annual scorecards through January 1, 2036.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Mar 26, 2025Deadline Jan 1, 2036
“Humanoid Robots. Deployable dexterity will remain pathetic compared to human hands beyond 2036. Without new types of mechanical systems walking humanoids will remain too unsafe to be in close proximity to real humans.”
Verdict: Brooks has since elaborated on this in his post "Why Today's Humanoids Won't Learn Dexterity"; the 2036 horizon is open.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Mar 26, 2025Deadline Jan 1, 2036
“Neural computation. There will be small and impactful academic forays into neuralish systems that are well beyond the linear threshold systems, developed by 1960, that are the foundation of recent successes. Clear winners will not yet emerge by 2036 but there will be multiple candidates.”
Verdict: One of five ten-year predictions Brooks says he will score in his annual January 1 scorecards through January 1, 2036.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Mar 24, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Tech stocks haven't reached their bottom yet, but they are poised to go higher by the end of 2025 — the market is in the early stages of a two-year bull run.”
Verdict: Tech stocks did fall further after March 24, bottoming in early April 2025 amid the tariff shock, and then rallied to records — the Nasdaq and the information-technology sector finished 2025 well above their March levels, matching both halves of the call.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid Mar 21, 2025Deadline Apr 30, 2025
“Next week, we will start giving access to a small set of initial users. We are trying our best to get it out in a few weeks. [On the release of Perplexity's agentic browser, Comet]”
Verdict: Comet did not ship 'in a few weeks': Perplexity launched it on July 9, 2025 — nearly four months later — and even then only to $200/month Max subscribers plus a limited set of waitlist invitees, with broader invite-only rollout continuing for months afterward.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid Mar 21, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Neo Gamma is going into homes this year — 1X will place its humanoid robot in 'a few hundred to a few thousand' homes by the end of 2025. We want to invite early adopters in this year to help us develop this system.”
Verdict: 1X did not place Neo in hundreds of homes in 2025. It launched NEO for pre-order on October 28, 2025 ($20,000 early access or $499/month), with first consumer deliveries slated for 2026 in the U.S. and other markets from 2027.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Mar 20, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“I think we will literally build a legion, at least one legion of robots this year, and then probably 10 legions next year — i.e. roughly 50,000 Optimus humanoid robots in 2026.”
Verdict: Deadline is end of 2026. Tesla built no 'legion' in 2025, and as of September 2026 series production at Fremont had not started (Tesla's Q2 2026 update said production was 'anticipated later this year'), making 50,000 units in 2026 effectively unreachable.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Mar 19, 2025Deadline Mar 31, 2030
“Humanoid robots will be a common sight in manufacturing facilities in less than five years: "When, literally, humanoid robots are wandering around, which is not five years away. This is not five-years-away problem, this is a few-years-away problem." They should go to factories first, because the domain is much more guard-railed and the use case much more specific.”
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Mar 18, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“Annual data center capital expenditure will reach $1 trillion by 2028: 'I've said before that I expect data center buildout to reach $1 trillion, and I'm fairly certain that we're going to reach that very soon' — driven by accelerated computing and the recognition that the future of software requires capital investment.”
Verdict: Resolves at the end of 2028 against industry-wide data center capex. Independent forecasters (e.g., Dell'Oro) put the $1 trillion annual mark a year later, in 2029.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Mar 18, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“One architecture per year, one new AI infrastructure platform every year: Blackwell Ultra in the second half of 2025; Vera Rubin — the Vera CPU with the Rubin GPU, NVLink 144 — in the second half of 2026; Rubin Ultra, NVL576, in the second half of 2027; and then Feynman in 2028.”
Verdict: The first leg has held up — Blackwell Ultra (GB300) arrived in the second half of 2025, and Huang said at his CES 2026 keynote that Vera Rubin was in full production for second-half-2026 availability — but Rubin Ultra (2027) and Feynman (2028) are still ahead, and supply-chain reporting has already floated slippage of the NVL576 'Kyber' rack toward 2028.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Mar 2025Deadline Mar 17, 2035
“AGI is five to ten years away — a system that matches all human cognitive capabilities.”
— Demis Hassabis, CEO, Google DeepMind; Nobel laureate (CEO). Interviews (2025)
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid Mar 16, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“I think this is the year that, at least by the competitive coding benchmark, AI becomes better than humans at competitive coding — and stays better, forever. At the rate we're going, I would be surprised if it's 2027. I think it's going to be sooner. (o1-preview was about the millionth-best competitive programmer in the world, o1 was in the top 1,000, and o3 ranked 175th.)”
Verdict: In September 2025 OpenAI's reasoning system scored a perfect 12/12 at the ICPC World Finals — enough for a first-place human ranking, ahead of all 139 university teams — and models took IOI gold, so AI matched or beat the best humans in standard algorithmic contests. But no AI held the top human competitive-programming rating outright by year-end, and a human (Psyho) beat OpenAI's model at the AtCoder World Tour Finals heuristic contest in July 2025, so the 'better forever' framing was not established.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Mar 14, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“I believe that very soon — probably in 2026 or 2027, but possibly as soon as this year — one or more A.I. companies will claim they've created an artificial general intelligence, or A.G.I., which is usually defined as something like 'a general-purpose A.I. system that can do almost all cognitive tasks a human can do.'”
Verdict: Resolves if a major AI company explicitly claims to have built AGI by the end of 2027; no leading lab has made such an unqualified claim so far.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid Mar 13, 2025Deadline Mar 31, 2026
“Dario Amodei says AI will be writing 90% of the code in 6 months and almost all the code in 12 months. I am with Arthur B here, I expect a lot of progress and change very soon but I would still take the other side of that bet.”
Verdict: Neither leg of Amodei's forecast came true: by September 2025 AI-written code was, in Zvi's own words, 'a lot less than 90%', and by March 2026 AI was nowhere near writing essentially all code. Zvi reviewed his call in September 2025: 'On reflection yes I was correctly betting no, but that was an easy call.'
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid Mar 11, 2025Deadline Sep 30, 2025
“I think the number is going to be more like 20-30% of the code could get written by AI — not 90%. Are there some really simple use cases? Yes, but there's an equally complicated number of ones where it's going to be zero.”
Verdict: Krishna was rejecting Dario Amodei's claim that AI would write 90% of code within three to six months; by the end of that window the best public figures from heavy AI adopters clustered in Krishna's range — Satya Nadella said 20-30% of code in Microsoft repositories was AI-written (April 2025) and Sundar Pichai cited roughly 30% at Google. No 90%-of-all-code milestone arrived in the implied window, though some individual firms reported higher shares later in 2026.
Partially correctJobs & EconomySaid Mar 10, 2025Deadline Mar 10, 2026
“In three to six months, AI will be writing 90% of the code. In twelve months, essentially all of it.”
Verdict: AI code generation grew explosively, and some AI labs report that a large majority of their own code is now AI-written — but 90% across the software industry did not materialize on this timeline.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Mar 10, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2045
“We're expecting a six-fold increase in power demand over the next 20 years compared to what we saw over the prior 20 — roughly a 55% increase in US power demand, driven by data centers, onshored manufacturing and electrification.”
Verdict: Twenty-year horizon (to ~2045); resolvable against EIA US electricity demand data. Note: personType is set to "CEO" only because the schema has no utility/energy-executive category.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Mar 9, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2060
“Humanoid robot development will accelerate rapidly, with 3 billion humanoid robots in operation globally by 2060 — most of them ultimately in homes — as humanoids 'move from proofs of concept to multi-industry adoption by the end of the decade.'”
Verdict: Deadline is 2060; BofA reaffirmed the 3-billion figure in its March 2026 'Physical AI, part 2' report, projecting 300 million units by 2040 on the way there.
CorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Mar 3, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“TSLA FY25 deliveries could potentially decline YoY, creating an attractive entry point to our preferred embodied AI name — Tesla's softer auto deliveries are emblematic of a company in the transition from an automotive 'pure play' to a highly diversified play on AI and robotics.”
Verdict: Tesla delivered about 1.64 million vehicles in 2025, down 8.6% from 1.79 million in 2024 — a second consecutive annual decline, as Jonas anticipated.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Feb 26, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“"We're not going to hire any new engineers this year. We're seeing a 30% productivity increase on engineering, and we're going to really continue to ride that up."”
Verdict: Salesforce held engineering headcount flat through 2025: Benioff said in May 2026 that the engineering organization had been stuck at roughly 15,000 people for about two years, and contemporaneous coverage (Fortune, WION) reported the company stopped hiring software engineers in 2025 while expanding sales by ~2,000 reps. The 30% productivity figure remains a self-reported, unauditable number, but the operative promise — no net new engineering hires in 2025 — held.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Feb 24, 2025Deadline Mar 31, 2028
“Alibaba will invest at least RMB 380 billion (about US$53 billion) over the next three years to advance its cloud computing and AI infrastructure — exceeding its total AI and cloud spending over the past decade.”
Verdict: Three-year spending program running through Alibaba's fiscal year ending March 2028; at Apsara 2025 Eddie Wu said the plan was being executed and that additional funds would be committed beyond it.
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid Feb 21, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“The total progress we'll see until the end of 2025 will be worth more than 2 years of algorithmic progress, i.e. more than the progress we've seen since GPT-4 when compute expenditures have been fairly flat.”
Verdict: 2025 did deliver the predicted compute scale-up and very large capability gains (reasoning models, IMO gold, agentic coding, faster METR time-horizon doubling), and his companion ~$12B OpenAI revenue estimate was close; whether 2025 alone exceeded all progress since GPT-4 is not objectively measurable.
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid Feb 12, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“We will next ship GPT-4.5, the model we called Orion internally, as our last non-chain-of-thought model... In both ChatGPT and our API, we will release GPT-5 as a system that integrates a lot of our technology, including o3. We will no longer ship o3 as a standalone model. [Timing: GPT-4.5 in 'weeks', GPT-5 in 'months'.]”
Verdict: GPT-4.5 shipped 27 February 2025 (about two weeks later) and GPT-5 shipped 7 August 2025 (within 'months'), so the timing held; however OpenAI did ship o3 as a standalone model on 16 April 2025, contradicting the 'no longer ship o3 as a standalone model' part.
IncorrectJobs & EconomySaid Feb 12, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“AI is better than any Indian programmer that's outsourced right now... 2025 will witness the complete destruction of the BPO market, which will reverberate out.”
Verdict: The BPO market was not destroyed in 2025: India's IT-BPM industry recorded revenue growth and net hiring over the year, with AI compressing pricing and headcount growth in some seat-based contracts rather than collapsing the sector.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Feb 12, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“We've updated our five-year capital forecast from 2025 through 2029 to $50 billion, an increase of 16% from our prior guidance... approximately 80% of the capital increase is at Dominion Energy Virginia, driven by higher transmission, distribution, and nuclear subsequent license renewal spend.”
Verdict: Dominion Energy Virginia's share of the 2025-2029 plan is roughly $41 billion net of Stonepeak reimbursements per the FY2024 10-K; the company has since rolled the plan forward to about $64.7 billion for 2026-2030 on continued data center demand.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Feb 11, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“InvestAI will mobilise €200 billion for investment in AI in Europe over the next five years, including a new European fund of €20 billion for AI gigafactories — the largest public-private partnership in the world for the development of trustworthy AI.”
Verdict: Horizon runs to 2030. Implementation has been slow: the €20 billion gigafactory facility was still being structured with the EIB in December 2025 and the official EuroHPC gigafactories call was only published in July 2026.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Feb 9, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“The world will not change all at once; it never does. Life will go on mostly the same in the short run, and people in 2025 will mostly spend their time in the same way they did in 2024. We will still fall in love, create families, get in fights online, hike in nature, etc.”
Verdict: Despite rapid model progress and surging chatbot adoption in 2025, daily life, time use and employment patterns did not visibly shift at the population level during the year, matching Altman's deliberately modest short-run claim.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Feb 9, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2035
“Anyone in 2035 should be able to marshall the intellectual capacity equivalent to everyone in 2025; everyone should have access to unlimited genius to direct however they can imagine.”
Verdict: Closing prediction of Altman's 'Three Observations' essay on AGI-driven abundance; resolves at the end of 2035.
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid Feb 8, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Our very first reasoning model was like a top one-millionth competitive programmer in the world... o3, which we talked about publicly in December, is the 175th best competitive programmer in the world. I think our internal benchmark is now around 50, and maybe we'll hit number one by the end of this year.”
Verdict: OpenAI's reasoning models did reach the very top tier during 2025 — a perfect 12/12 at the September 2025 ICPC World Finals, enough for a first-place human team ranking — but no OpenAI model was verifiably the world's number-one individual competitive programmer by December 31, 2025: human champion Przemysław 'Psyho' Dębiak beat OpenAI's model at the AtCoder World Tour Finals heuristic contest in July 2025, and OpenAI only swept the top humans at AtCoder in mid-2026.
Partially correctEnergy & Data CentersSaid Feb 6, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“We spent $26.3 billion in capex in Q4, and I think that is reasonably representative of what you expect an annualized capex rate in 2025 [i.e. roughly $100 billion]. The vast majority of that capex spend is on AI for AWS.”
Verdict: Amazon did blow past $100 billion, but the run-rate forecast badly understated the ramp: guidance was lifted to ~$125 billion in October 2025 and full-year 2025 capex finished at about $131.8 billion, roughly a third above the February figure.
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Feb 5, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“In the second half of this year, Xpeng will be the first to realize L3 full-scenario autonomous driving, giving users an unprecedented smart driving experience. I believe that L3 autonomous driving will drive AI cars into the 'iPhone 4 era.'”
Verdict: XPeng did not deliver L3 full-scenario autonomous driving in H2 2025; its flagship VLA 2.0 system (unveiled November 2025, rolled out March 2026) is explicitly described by XPeng as a supervised system, and He Xiaopeng subsequently said XPeng would skip L3 entirely and go from L2 to L4, calling L3 hard to define and engineer.
Partially correctEnergy & Data CentersSaid Feb 4, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“We are confident about the opportunities ahead, and to accelerate our progress, we expect to invest approximately $75 billion in capital expenditures in 2025.”
Verdict: The direction was right but the number was well short: Alphabet raised guidance to $85 billion in July 2025 and finished the year at roughly $91.4 billion of capex, about 22% above the February forecast.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Feb 4, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Digital wallets, powered by AI purchasing agents, could represent 72% of all e-commerce transactions by 2030.”
Verdict: Part of ARK's AI Agents big idea, which also forecasts ~$9 trillion of AI-facilitated global gross online consumption by 2030; resolvable against global e-commerce payment-method share data in 2030.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Feb 4, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“AI purchasing agents could generate global revenue between $40 billion and $200 billion for digital wallet platforms in 2030.”
Verdict: ARK valued digital wallet platforms (e.g. Block, Robinhood, SoFi) at ~$1,800 per user at the time; the wide 5x range makes this a weak but still checkable 2030 revenue forecast.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Feb 4, 2025Deadline Feb 4, 2030
“India is likely to develop its own advanced computing chipsets — GPUs — within the next three to five years.”
Verdict: Government sources have since indicated Indian-designed GPUs may be technology-demonstration ready around 2025 with production readiness projected for 2029, keeping the three-to-five-year claim live.
Partially correctJobs & EconomySaid Feb 3, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“For full year 2025, we expect: Revenue of between $3.741 – $3.757 billion [31% year-over-year growth]. U.S. commercial revenue in excess of $1.079 billion, representing a growth rate of at least 54%... GAAP operating income and net income in each quarter of this year.”
Verdict: Guidance proved far too conservative: FY2025 revenue was $4.475 billion (56% growth, well above the $3.741–3.757B range), US commercial revenue roughly $1.45 billion (Q4 alone grew 137%), and Palantir stayed GAAP profitable every quarter.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Feb 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Disruptive innovation could command more than two-thirds of the global equity market, compounding at a 38% rate through 2030, as breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, autonomous mobility and humanoid robots turbocharge productivity.”
Verdict: Target year 2030 is still in the future; this is the 2025 restatement of ARK's recurring disruptive-innovation market-share forecast (the 2024 edition put it at more than 60% by 2030 at a 40% annual rate).
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid Feb 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“It's not going to work this year. It's still… you know, anyone who's saying agents will work in 2025 should be skeptical of it.”
Verdict: He was largely right about general-purpose consumer agents: agentic browsers (including Perplexity's own Comet) shipped in 2025 but proved unreliable on complex, multi-step tasks and vulnerable to prompt-injection, and retrospectives described agents as overhyped or 'mostly a dud.' But he understated coding agents, which worked well enough commercially to reach billions in run-rate revenue by early 2026.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid Jan 30, 2025Deadline Nov 30, 2025
“India's own large language model — a foundation model built to maintain Indian context and culture — is expected to be ready within the next 10 months: 'We believe there are at least six developers who will be able to create foundation models in the next eight to 10 months on the outer limit and four to six months on an aggressive, optimistic estimate,' supported by the India AI Compute Facility's 18,693 procured GPUs.”
Verdict: No indigenous from-scratch foundational model shipped within the 10-month window; Sarvam was only selected to build India's sovereign LLM in April 2025, and the first public sovereign foundation models (Sarvam 105B, BharatGen, Gnani.ai) launched at the IndiaAI Impact Summit in February 2026, roughly three months past the deadline.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid Jan 29, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“We expect to have several thousand Optimus robots produced at Tesla and doing useful things by the end of this year.”
Verdict: Tesla did not produce several thousand working Optimus robots in 2025; output stalled on hardware redesigns and the robots that existed were used for demonstrations and limited pilot tasks, with volume production of the V3 design deferred to 2026.
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Jan 29, 2025Deadline Jun 30, 2025
“Teslas will be in the wild with no one in them, in June in Austin. This is not some far-off mythical situation, it's five, six months away.”
Verdict: Tesla did launch a paid robotaxi service in Austin in June 2025, but every vehicle carried a Tesla safety monitor in the front passenger seat; cars genuinely 'with no one in them' did not carry public riders until January 22, 2026.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Jan 29, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Our generative AI book of business now stands at more than $5 billion inception-to-date, up nearly $2 billion quarter over quarter... we're well-positioned for 2025 and beyond and expect revenue growth of at least five percent and free cash flow of about $13.5 billion this year.”
Verdict: IBM's full-year 2025 revenue was $67.5 billion, up 8% (6% at constant currency), clearing the 'at least five percent' target, and free cash flow came in at $14.7 billion, above the ~$13.5 billion guided; the generative AI book of business reached more than $12.5 billion by year-end.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Jan 29, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“ASML expects 2025 total net sales to be between €30 billion and €35 billion, with a gross margin between 51% and 53%.”
Verdict: ASML reported 2025 total net sales of €32.7 billion with a full-year gross margin of 52.8% — both inside the guided ranges. (The range was first communicated in October 2024 and reiterated here.)
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Jan 28, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“"Within five years, we expect to approach about $2 billion in total annual revenue from Super Cruise... This is how we are setting the stage for recurring high-margin revenue streams from subscriptions."”
Verdict: Deadline is early 2030. GM's Super Cruise-equipped fleet roughly doubled in 2025, but reported Super Cruise revenue remains in the hundreds of millions, far short of $2 billion.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jan 28, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“Nvidia today trades 20 times revenue, it's trading 24 times earnings. People talk about the bubble, but this isn't what bubbles are made of. As far as I can tell, the world's going to have a compute shortage for the next three or four years. I don't think anything yesterday [DeepSeek] changed that.”
Verdict: Horizon runs through roughly the end of 2028; through 2026 AI compute has remained supply-constrained (hyperscaler capex guidance rising, chip and memory shortages), but the full three-to-four-year window is not yet complete.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Jan 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Making AI that is smarter than almost all humans at almost all things will require millions of chips, tens of billions of dollars (at least), and is most likely to happen in 2026-2027.”
Verdict: Essay is dated January 2025 on darioamodei.com; day-level date not stated by the source, so precision set to month.
Partially correctJobs & EconomySaid Jan 24, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Meta is building a 2GW+ datacenter that is so large it would cover a significant part of Manhattan. We'll bring online ~1GW of compute in '25 and we'll end the year with more than 1.3 million GPUs. We're planning to invest $60-65B in capex this year.”
Verdict: Meta overshot rather than missed its spending plan: full-year 2025 capex came in above the guided range at roughly $72 billion (with 2026 guidance far higher), and the Louisiana Hyperion campus proceeded as the 2GW+ build described. The compute-online and 1.3 million GPU figures are not independently auditable, so only the capex leg can be scored — and it was exceeded, not met.
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid Jan 24, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“This will be a defining year for AI. In 2025, I expect Meta AI will be the leading assistant serving more than 1 billion people.”
Verdict: The headcount target was hit early — Zuckerberg announced at Meta's May 2025 shareholder meeting that Meta AI had passed 1 billion monthly active users across Meta's apps. 'Leading assistant' is the weaker half: ChatGPT continued to dominate deliberate assistant usage and engagement, and Meta AI's reach is largely a byproduct of its placement inside Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid Jan 24, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“In 2025, I expect... Llama 4 will become the leading state of the art model, and we'll build an AI engineer that will start contributing increasing amounts of code to our R&D efforts.”
Verdict: Llama 4 shipped in April 2025 but was not state of the art: it drew a benchmark-submission controversy, the flagship Behemoth was pushed back and then reportedly shelved for weak internal performance, and Meta pivoted to a new superintelligence lab reportedly considering closed models. AI-written code did grow at Meta, but the central prediction failed.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jan 23, 2025Deadline Jan 23, 2030
“The shelf life of the current [LLM] paradigm is fairly short, probably three to five years. I think within five years, nobody in their right mind would use them anymore, at least not as the central component of AI systems.”
Verdict: Deadline is January 2030. As of 2026, LLMs remain the central component of essentially all deployed AI systems; LeCun left Meta in late 2025 and founded AMI Labs to pursue world-model architectures instead.
PendingHealthcareSaid Jan 23, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2035
“If you think about what we might expect humans to accomplish in an area like biology in 100 years, I think a doubling of the human lifespan is not at all crazy. And then if AI is able to accelerate that, we may be able to get that in five to ten years.”
Verdict: Amodei framed a doubling of human lifespan as achievable in as little as five to ten years 'if we really get this AI stuff right'; outer bound treated as end-2035.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Jan 23, 2025Deadline Jul 22, 2025
“Within 180 days of this order, the Assistant to the President for Science and Technology, the Special Advisor for AI and Crypto, and the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs... shall develop and submit to the President an action plan to achieve the policy set forth in section 2 of this order.”
Verdict: The White House released 'Winning the Race: America's AI Action Plan' on July 23, 2025, essentially on the 180-day deadline (one day past it), delivering the mandated plan.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Jan 23, 2025Deadline Jan 23, 2026
“We are raising our price target on Palantir from $75 to $90 as our recent checks and growing confidence in the company's AI strategy is key to the bull thesis on Palantir for 2025. We believe Palantir has a path to become the next Oracle or Salesforce over the coming years.”
Verdict: Palantir blew through $90 within two weeks, trading above $100 after its Q4 2024 results in early February 2025 and reaching an all-time high of $207.52 on November 3, 2025.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid Jan 23, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“While current LLMs achieve very low accuracy on HLE, recent history shows benchmarks are quickly saturated. Given the rapid pace of AI development, it is plausible that models could exceed 50% accuracy on HLE [Humanity's Last Exam] by the end of 2025.”
Verdict: No model exceeded 50% on HLE by the end of 2025. The best published results were Gemini 3 Pro at 37.5% and Gemini 3 Deep Think at 41.0% without tools (roughly 45% with search and code execution); scores above 50% only appeared in 2026.
IncorrectHealthcareSaid Jan 21, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“We'll hopefully have some AI-designed drugs in clinical trials by the end of the year. That's the plan.”
Verdict: Isomorphic Labs did not put any AI-designed drug into clinical trials during 2025. At Davos on 20 January 2026 Hassabis said the company now expects its first clinical trials by the end of 2026, which Reuters described as a delay to the original timeline.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Jan 21, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“I don't know exactly when it'll come, I don't know if it'll be 2027. I think it's plausible it could be longer than that. I don't think it will be a whole bunch longer than that when AI systems are better than humans at almost everything. Better than almost all humans at almost everything. And then eventually better than all humans at everything, even robotics.”
Verdict: Target year 2027 has not yet arrived; Amodei hedged that it could be 'plausibly longer,' so resolution should focus on whether AI systems are better than almost all humans at almost everything by end of 2027.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jan 21, 2025Deadline Jan 21, 2029
“The Stargate Project is a new company which intends to invest $500 billion over the next four years building new AI infrastructure for OpenAI in the United States.”
Verdict: Four-year clock runs to January 2029. OpenAI said in late 2025 that over $400 billion of the commitment was lined up, but The Information reported in February 2026 that Stargate had fallen short of locking down the full 10GW of capacity through SoftBank and Oracle.
IncorrectJobs & EconomySaid Jan 21, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Stargate is "a new American company that will invest $500 billion at least in AI infrastructure in the United States and very, very quickly, moving very rapidly, creating over 100,000 American jobs almost immediately."”
Verdict: Nothing close to 100,000 jobs appeared 'almost immediately': Bloomberg reported the flagship Abilene site was contractually guaranteed only 57 full-time positions, and by mid-2026 Oracle described roughly 9,000 temporary construction jobs and about 1,000 eventual permanent jobs there. OpenAI's own September 2025 expansion projected 'over 25,000 onsite jobs' across five new sites as a forward-looking estimate, well short of 100,000 delivered in 2025.
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid Jan 21, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“I think 2025 is the year that we go from ChatGPT being this super-smart thing that can answer any question you ask to ChatGPT doing things in the real world for you.”
Verdict: OpenAI did ship agentic products in 2025 — Operator (January), Deep Research, ChatGPT agent (July) and the Atlas browser (October) — so ChatGPT gained the ability to carry out multi-step real-world tasks, but reliability and everyday adoption stayed limited, and enterprise value from agents remained the year's central point of dispute.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid Jan 16, 2025Deadline Jul 31, 2026
“Arsenal-1, Anduril's roughly 5-million-square-foot 'hyperscale' weapons plant in Pickaway County outside Columbus, Ohio, will begin manufacturing its first products in July 2026, eventually producing tens of thousands of autonomous military systems per year.”
Verdict: Arsenal-1 opened ahead of schedule: Anduril began building the Fury combat drone at the site in March 2026, and the first Ohio-built Fury rolled off the production line on July 27, 2026, meeting the original July 2026 target. The 'tens of thousands of systems per year' output remains far off.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid Jan 16, 2025Deadline Jan 16, 2027
“I aim for an operational facility [Arsenal-1] with fighter jets coming off the line within 24 months. It has to be this fast because we don't have time for business as usual.”
Verdict: Anduril began YFQ-44A Fury production at Arsenal-1 in March 2026 — three months ahead of its own July 2026 target — and completed the first Ohio-built Fury on July 27, 2026, 557 days after the January 16, 2025 announcement, well inside the 24-month window.
Partially correctJobs & EconomySaid Jan 16, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Even after more than tripling in 2024, we forecast our revenue from AI accelerator to double in 2025, as the strong surge in AI-related demand continues.”
Verdict: TSMC's 2025 revenue rose 35.9% to $122.4 billion and AI accelerators moved from a 'close to mid-teens' share of revenue in 2024 to a 'high-teens' share in 2025, implying roughly 70-85% growth in AI accelerator revenue — very strong, but short of the forecast doubling.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jan 16, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“We now forecast the revenue growth from AI accelerators to approach a mid-40% CAGR for the 5-year period starting off the already higher base of 2024.”
Verdict: Tracking above plan so far: at the Q4 2025 call in January 2026 Wei raised the 2024-2029 AI accelerator guidance to a mid-to-high-50s percent CAGR.
Partially correctJobs & EconomySaid Jan 16, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“We expect 2025 to be another strong growth year for TSMC, and forecast our full-year revenue to increase by close to mid-20s percent in US dollar terms.”
Verdict: 2025 was indeed a very strong growth year, but the number was far too conservative: TSMC reported full-year 2025 revenue of $122.4 billion, up 35.9% in US dollar terms, versus guidance of 'close to mid-20s percent.'
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid Jan 16, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“TSMC's 2-nanometer process (N2) is on track for volume production in the second half of 2025.”
Verdict: Wei confirmed on the January 2026 call that N2 entered volume production as scheduled in the fourth quarter of 2025 at both the Hsinchu and Kaohsiung sites, with yields ahead of expectations.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Jan 13, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“I'm skeptical about AI "materially chang[ing] the output of companies", at least in 2025.”
Verdict: Thompson's skepticism about Altman's "materially change the output of companies" claim largely held up: MIT's 2025 GenAI Divide report found ~95% of enterprise GenAI pilots produced no measurable P&L impact, McKinsey's 2025 state-of-AI survey found enterprise-wide EBIT impact still rare, and Altman himself later conceded he had overestimated the speed of disruption. Real gains did appear in narrower domains, especially software engineering, consistent with Thompson's "uneven arrival" framing.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jan 13, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“The government will increase the UK's public (sovereign) AI compute capacity twentyfold by 2030, starting with a new state-of-the-art national supercomputer.”
Verdict: Deadline is 2030; early steps include Isambard-AI in Bristol, Dawn in Cambridge and a planned £750 million supercomputer in Edinburgh, but the full twentyfold expansion is unresolved.
CorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Jan 13, 2025Deadline Jan 13, 2026
“Tesla price target raised to $430 from $400 with an $800 bull case: 'As interest in AVs continues to rise, we have undertaken the most extensive re-architecture and expansion of our Tesla Mobility (robotaxi) model since initially published in 2015. While autos still matter, we see embodied AI as the driver for upside to revised $800 bull case. Reiterate Top Pick.'”
Verdict: Tesla cleared the $430 base-case target within the 12-month window, trading above it in October 2025 and closing at a record $489.88 on December 16, 2025. The $800 bull case was not reached.
Partially correctJobs & EconomySaid Jan 10, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Probably in 2025, we at Meta, as well as the other companies that are basically working on this, are going to have an AI that can effectively be a sort of midlevel engineer that you have at your company that can write code.”
Verdict: Coding agents advanced sharply in 2025 and now handle substantial amounts of real engineering work, but no lab — Meta included — fielded a system that autonomously fills a mid-level engineer's role; Meta shipped no such 'AI engineer' product in 2025 and Zuckerberg's own follow-on framing pushed the milestone of AI writing most of Meta's AI code into 2026.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Jan 6, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“In 2025, we may see the first AI agents join the workforce and materially change the output of companies.”
Verdict: AI coding, research, and support agents were deployed in production across many companies during 2025, with measurable output changes in software engineering and customer service.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Jan 6, 2025Deadline Jan 20, 2029
“I think AGI will probably get developed during this president's term, and getting that right seems really important.”
Verdict: Deadline is the end of Trump's term (20 January 2029); note Altman in the same interview called AGI 'a very sloppy term', so resolution will require a stated AGI definition.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid Jan 4, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“My most contrarian belief [for 2025]: OpenAI loses its lead, loses its nonprofit-to-for-profit transition, and becomes the number four player in AI.”
Verdict: OpenAI completed its restructuring into a public benefit corporation under the OpenAI Foundation in October 2025 — the opposite of 'losing' the for-profit transition — and finished 2025 at roughly a $20B annualized revenue run rate, remaining the largest consumer AI player rather than falling to number four.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jan 4, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“My most contrarian belief: America, at some point over the next four years, will print at least one year of greater than 5% real GDP growth. I think productivity is going to go vertical because of AI and deregulation. I think there could be a world where this is the late '90s.”
Verdict: Window runs through calendar 2028; no year of >5% US real GDP growth has been recorded so far, leaving 2026-2028 to resolve it.
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid Jan 4, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“2025 will be the year of the robot: robots and autonomous hardware companies will be the biggest business winner of the year. I think this is going to be the year where we're all going to look at humanoid robots and autonomous systems and be like, 'Oh my God, I can't believe this is here.'”
Verdict: Autonomous systems did have a breakout year — Waymo scaled sharply and Tesla launched supervised robotaxi service in Austin — and robotics valuations and funding soared (Unitree revenue more than quadrupled). But humanoid robots did not arrive: the International Federation of Robotics counted only about 7,000 humanoids sold worldwide for industrial and professional use in 2025, Tesla built a few hundred Optimus units against a 5,000-unit goal, and 2025's biggest business winners were AI chip and hyperscaler names (Alphabet +65%, Nvidia +39%).
Partially correctJobs & EconomySaid Jan 4, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“My biggest business winner for 2025: Tesla and Google — the two Mag 7 names best positioned thanks to their advances in AI and autonomy.”
Verdict: Alphabet was the best-performing Magnificent Seven stock of 2025, up about 65% on TPU and Gemini optimism — a clear hit. Tesla was not: it returned roughly 11% for the year, well below the Mag 7 average of about 27% and behind Nvidia's ~39%.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Jan 3, 2025Deadline Jun 30, 2025
“In FY2025, Microsoft is on track to invest approximately $80 billion to build out AI-enabled datacenters to train AI models and deploy AI and cloud-based applications around the world.”
Verdict: Microsoft's fiscal 2025 ended June 30, 2025 with total capital expenditures including finance leases of roughly $88 billion — above the $80 billion figure — driven overwhelmingly by AI and cloud datacenter buildout, though the reported total covers all capex rather than AI datacenters alone.
CorrectAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Jan 1, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“We will not see artificial general intelligence this year [2025], despite claims by Elon Musk to the contrary. (People will also continue to play games to weaken the definition or even try to define it in financial rather than scientific terms.)”
Verdict: No AGI arrived in 2025; independent year-end gradings of dated 2025 AI predictions scored this one correct, and by late 2025 even prominent optimists were pushing AGI timelines out by years.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid Jan 1, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“No single system will solve more than 4 of the AI 2027 Marcus-Brundage tasks by the end of 2025. I wouldn't be shocked if none were reliably solved by the end of the year.”
Verdict: A year-end review of 2025 AI predictions judged this correct, concluding that at most one of the ten tasks (a reading-comprehension-style item) was arguably passed, and certainly not four by any single system.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Jan 1, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Profits from AI models will continue to be modest or nonexistent (chip-making companies will continue to do well though, in supplying hardware to the companies that build the models; shovels will continue to sell well throughout the gold rush.)”
Verdict: Through 2025 the leading model developers continued to run large operating losses while revenue growth was funded by external capital, and the hardware suppliers — Nvidia above all — captured the profits; the 'shovel-sellers do best' pattern held. Both halves of the prediction came true.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid Jan 1, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“AI "Agents" will be endlessly hyped throughout 2025 but far from reliable, except possibly in very narrow use cases.”
Verdict: 2025 was saturated with agent marketing while reliability lagged: MIT's NANDA work produced the widely-cited finding that about 95% of internally built enterprise genAI pilots delivered no measurable return, McKinsey-style surveys found very few agents reaching production, and teams that shipped did so by narrowing scope. Independent year-end gradings scored this prediction correct.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid Jan 1, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Humanoid robotics will see a lot of hype, but nobody will release anything to remotely as capable as Rosie the Robot. Motor control may be impressive, but situational awareness and cognitive flexibility will remain poor.”
Verdict: Humanoid-robot announcements and demos proliferated in 2025, including Tesla's Optimus, but no shipped system approached a general-purpose household robot; impressive locomotion and manipulation demos continued to coexist with brittle autonomy and heavy teleoperation or scripting.
CorrectSafety & RiskSaid Jan 1, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“The US will continue to have very little regulation protecting its consumers from the risks of generative AI. When it comes to regulation, much of the world will increasingly look to Europe for guidance.”
Verdict: No comprehensive federal generative-AI consumer-protection statute was enacted in 2025; US federal policy moved toward deregulation and promotion of AI build-out, leaving substantive rules to individual states and to the EU AI Act.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Data center electricity demand is growing at about 20% annually through the end of the decade, from roughly 4% of current U.S. electricity demand to 10%-12% by 2030.”
Verdict: Page is undated on-site but was published around October 2025; BlackRock's own later 2026 Global Outlook work cites materially higher figures (15-20%+ of current US demand by 2030), so the firm's own estimates have since moved.
CorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid 2025Deadline Jun 30, 2026
“Currently the world doesn't have any operational 1GW+ data centers. However, it is very likely we will see fully operational 1GW data centers before mid-2026.”
Verdict: Gigawatt-scale sites did come online in the first half of 2026: xAI announced Colossus 2 in Memphis as the world's first gigawatt training cluster in early 2026, and Epoch AI and subsequent reporting counted roughly five facilities reaching 1 GW scale during 2026. The milestone was met, though several of the other GW-class campuses only crossed the threshold later in the year.
PendingSafety & RiskSaid 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“But the real AI is coming. I think we've got about 5 years… I think it's going to lead to human extinction, probably within a few years of its development. At best, it will cause near-total unemployment.”
Verdict: The '~5 years to real AI' element resolves around 2030; the extinction/near-total-unemployment consequence is dated a few years after that.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Dec 31, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Bet with Miles Brundage at 10:1 odds: if AI systems can perform 8 of the 10 specified tasks by the end of 2027, as determined by our panel of judges, Gary will donate $2,000 to a charity of Miles' choice; if AI can do fewer than 8, Miles will donate $20,000 to a charity of Gary's choice.”
Verdict: Tasks include watching an unseen movie and following plot twists, constructing bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines from natural-language spec, and similar; tracked on Metaculus and Manifold. Marcus's separate end-of-2025 checkpoint (no system solving more than 4 of the 10) was judged correct, but the bet itself does not resolve until after 2027.
Partially correctJobs & EconomySaid Dec 31, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Tech stocks will be up another 25% in 2025 in our base case, driven by the AI Revolution and a reduced regulatory burden: 'The start of this $2 trillion+ of AI spending all began with the Godfather of AI Jensen and Nvidia as they remain the only game in town with their chips the new gold and oil.'”
Verdict: Tech led the market but fell somewhat short of 25%: the Nasdaq Composite returned 21.2% and the Nasdaq-100 21.0% in 2025, with the technology sector up about 24% and the Magnificent Seven up 24.9%.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid Dec 20, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Early data points suggest that the upcoming ARC-AGI-2 benchmark will still pose a significant challenge to o3, potentially reducing its score to under 30% even at high compute (while a smart human would still be able to score over 95% with no training).”
Verdict: When ARC-AGI-2 launched in March 2025, ARC Prize estimated o3-preview-low would score ~4% and o3-high only 15–20% even at very high compute; subsequent official testing put o3 (medium) at roughly 3%. Every measured or estimated o3 configuration fell far below the 30% ceiling Chollet predicted.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Dec 20, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“Data centers consumed about 4.4% of total U.S. electricity in 2023 and are expected to consume approximately 6.7% to 12% of total U.S. electricity by 2028; data center load growth has tripled over the past decade and is projected to double or triple by 2028 (176 TWh in 2023 rising to 325–580 TWh in 2028).”
Verdict: Target year 2028 is still in the future; LBNL's own 2025 update has since revised the trajectory upward (11.8% of U.S. electricity by 2030, 9.5–15.3% range).
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid Dec 20, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“"Remarkable Alexa" underwhelms. With ChatGPT free to all, the long-delayed LLM-powered upgrade to Alexa fails to attract many buyers at the rumored price of $5 to $10 a month. By the end of the year Amazon realizes it's better as a perk for Prime subscribers — or, better yet, larded with AI-targeted ads for non-subscribers.”
Verdict: Amazon never sold Alexa+ at the rumored $5–$10: at its February 2025 unveiling it was priced at $19.99/month but free for Prime members from day one, so the 'Prime perk' outcome was the launch design rather than an end-of-year retreat, and early access drew tens of millions of users. Newton was right in substance that it would not stand as a mass-market paid subscription and would be monetized with advertising — Amazon began placing Sponsored Products in Alexa+ shopping conversations and display ads on Alexa+ device home screens during 2025.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Dec 20, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“AI that exceeds human performance in nearly every cognitive domain is almost certain to be built and deployed in the next few years. AI policy decisions made in the next few months will shape how that AI is governed.”
Verdict: Written the day OpenAI announced o3; Brundage argued superhuman coding and math were arriving far sooner than expected. 'Next few years' from December 2024 is operationalized here as end of 2028.
CorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Dec 18, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“We have increased our HBM market TAM estimate to now exceed $30 billion in 2025 — we have increased our estimate from $25 billion to $30 billion for calendar year 2025, driven by increased demand and increased volume required in 2025 for HBM.”
Verdict: Industry estimates put the 2025 HBM market at roughly $35-38 billion (some trackers higher), comfortably above Mehrotra's raised $30 billion TAM forecast, with SK hynix alone taking roughly 58-62% share of a rapidly expanding market.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Dec 17, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“AI will surpass the world's best competitive programmer within one to two years.”
Verdict: Window closes at the end of 2026. Trending toward correct: OpenAI's system reportedly beat every human finalist at the AtCoder World Tour Finals in July 2026, about 19 months after the prediction, after losing narrowly to human champion Psyho at the 2025 edition.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Dec 17, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“The Nasdaq will see two 10% pullbacks, and still finish the year higher than it started [in 2025].”
Verdict: The Nasdaq fell roughly 14% between February 17 and March 12, 2025 and a further ~16% between March 24 and the early-April tariff low, then recovered to finish 2025 up about 20% — Deepwater scored this prediction as a hit.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Dec 16, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“I'm now excited to commit this $100 billion and 100,000 jobs into the United States — a $100 billion investment over the next four years, focused on artificial intelligence and related infrastructure.”
Verdict: Son made a similar $50 billion / 50,000 jobs pledge in December 2016; SoftBank ultimately invested roughly $75 billion via the Vision Fund, with job creation never clearly verified. The 2024 pledge became the financial backbone of Stargate, announced a month later.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid Dec 14, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Finally filled out my forecasts [for the AI Digest/Sage 'AI 2025' survey]... TL;DR I think everything saturates except FrontierMath, which merely dectuples.”
Verdict: Scoring her own forecasts in January 2026, Cotra wrote that she 'overestimated progress on pretty much every benchmark other than FrontierMath Tiers 1-3' — the benchmarks did not saturate as predicted, while FrontierMath jumped far faster than she expected (from ~2% to ~24% within a week of her forecast, with o3).
IncorrectJobs & EconomySaid Dec 14, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Registered forecast for the combined annualized December revenue of OpenAI, Anthropic and xAI at the end of 2025: about $17 billion — merely tripling from ~$4.5 billion.”
Verdict: Combined annualized December revenue for OpenAI, Anthropic and xAI reached ~$30.5 billion in December 2025 — nearly 7x rather than 3x. Cotra wrote that she 'completely bombed the annualized revenue question.'
Partially correctJobs & EconomySaid Dec 12, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“"We stopped hiring about a year ago. We were 4,500, now we're 3,500... People stay about 5 years — so 20% leave every year — and by not hiring, we're simply shrinking." AI is already doing the work of hundreds of staff, and headcount will keep falling through natural attrition rather than layoffs.”
Verdict: Headcount did keep shrinking by attrition — Siemiatkowski said in May 2025 the company had gone from about 5,000 to 'almost 3,000' — but the 'stopped hiring entirely' framing did not hold: Klarna continued advertising open roles and in 2025 began rehiring human customer-service agents after AI service quality disappointed.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Dec 12, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Apple will ship more than 240 million iPhones in 2025, setting a new annual record, as AI features in the iPhone 16 spark a multi-year supercycle: 'The AI revolution is coming, not just to the enterprise, but to the consumer, with Cupertino.'”
Verdict: IDC reported in December 2025 that Apple would ship a record 247.4 million iPhones in calendar 2025, up 6.1% year over year and above the prior 2021 record — clearing the 240 million bar.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Dec 12, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“We currently have three hyperscale customers who have developed their own multi-generational AI XPU roadmap to be deployed at varying rates over the next three years. In 2027, we believe each of them plans to deploy 1 million XPU clusters across a single fabric.”
Verdict: Tan reaffirmed the 1-million-XPU-cluster roadmap on the March 2025 call; deployment scale in 2027 is not yet observable.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Dec 12, 2024Deadline Oct 31, 2027
“We expect this to represent an AI revenue serviceable addressable market, or SAM, for XPUs and network in the range of $60 billion to $90 billion in fiscal 2027 alone.”
Verdict: Tan reaffirmed the $60–90 billion fiscal 2027 SAM in March 2025, then dropped SAM framing in mid-2025; Broadcom's own fiscal 2027 AI revenue is now guided to about $115 billion, but the SAM claim itself resolves only in fiscal 2027.
IncorrectJobs & EconomySaid Dec 11, 2024Deadline Jun 30, 2025
“The S&P 500 will rally about 16% to 7,000 by the middle of 2025 before retreating later in the year — 'a tale of two years.'”
Verdict: The S&P 500 closed the first half of 2025 at 6,204.95 on June 30 — about 11% short of 7,000 — after an April tariff-driven selloff; the index never touched 7,000 at any point in 2025 (2025 peak close: 6,932 on December 23).
Partially correctJobs & EconomySaid Dec 11, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“After peaking near 7,000 at mid-year, the S&P 500 will retreat to 6,600 by the end of 2025 — a full-year gain of roughly 9.4% — as the market digests back-to-back 20%+ years.”
Verdict: The S&P 500 ended 2025 at 6,845.50, up 16.4% — about 3.7% above his 6,600 target, so the level was close but the shape was wrong: the index was only ~6,205 at mid-year and rallied into year-end rather than retreating from a 7,000 peak.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Dec 9, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“The UI you experience will be automatically produced by an LLM in three or five years, and that will be the default — conversational AI, not the traditional browser and search box, will be the primary way people interact with the internet.”
Verdict: Resolves by end-2029 on whether LLM-generated interfaces and conversational assistants have displaced the conventional browser/search interface as the default way people access the web; in the same interview Suleyman said 'we'll look back by 2030' at this as the inflection point.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid Dec 9, 2024Deadline Jun 30, 2025
“We'll be releasing a v2 of the [ARC-AGI] benchmark early next year (human testing is currently being finalized). Why? Because AGI progress in 2025 is going to need a better compass than v1.”
Verdict: Anti-AI protest activity did emerge in 2025 — dozens of local anti-data-center campaigns (helping delay or block roughly $156 billion of projects) plus small Stop AI/PauseAI demonstrations — but the first genuinely large, coordinated public protests came later, with 142 simultaneous demonstrations across 42 states on 18 July 2026.
IncorrectJobs & EconomySaid Dec 2, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“A big company will see its market cap divided by two or more because of AI. [Prediction for 2025.]”
Verdict: No large company's market capitalisation halved on AI disruption during 2025: the clearest AI casualties (education and gig-work names such as Chegg) were already small caps, while large 'AI-disrupted' decliners such as Adobe and Salesforce fell well short of 50%.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid Dec 2, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be pre-ordered. [Prediction for 2025.]”
Verdict: Consumer humanoid pre-orders only began on 28 October 2025, when 1X opened deposits for the $20,000 NEO; no company reported anything approaching 100,000 personal-robot pre-orders in 2025 (Hugging Face's own Reachy Mini had sold roughly 10,000 units by mid-2026).
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid Dec 2, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“China will start to lead the AI race (as a consequence of leading the open-source AI race). [Prediction for 2025.]”
Verdict: Chinese labs did take the lead in open-weight models during 2025 (DeepSeek's R1, Alibaba's Qwen family dominating downloads and derivatives), but US labs retained the frontier-capability and revenue lead, so China did not lead the AI race overall.
Partially correctJobs & EconomySaid Dec 2, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“We will begin to see the economic and employment growth potential of AI, with 15M AI builders on Hugging Face. [Prediction for 2025.]”
Verdict: Hugging Face's own Spring 2026 review reports the platform grew to 13 million users in 2025 (from about 7 million when the prediction was made) — close to a doubling, but short of the 15 million target; it passed roughly 18 million builders by September 2026.
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Dec 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Uber and Lyft will underperform the Nasdaq [in 2025].”
Verdict: Deepwater scored this a miss: Uber gained 42% and Lyft 62% in 2025 versus the Nasdaq's 22%, as robotaxi competition proved less disruptive than expected.
IncorrectJobs & EconomySaid Nov 27, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“The I/O Fund is already tracking a 30% minimum difference between GB200 NVL72 orders and what the Street has estimated for next year. When adding that the DGX B200 systems will be priced 40% higher... it's possible to see about 70% upside next year for Nvidia.”
Verdict: NVDA returned about 39% in 2025, closing the year at $186.27 from roughly $135 when the call was published, and its 2025 peak of just over $200 implied about 55% upside — short of the ~70% called for.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Nov 19, 2024Deadline Sep 30, 2029
“Qualcomm expects its push into new markets to generate an additional $22 billion per year by fiscal 2029, of which roughly $4 billion will come from PC chips.”
Verdict: Target is Qualcomm's fiscal 2029 (ending September 2029); at its 2026 Investor Day Qualcomm raised the FY29 non-handset target from $22 billion to $40 billion.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Nov 19, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“As generative AI accelerates demand for our technology and we become increasingly relevant across multiple industries, Qualcomm is well positioned to address a $900 billion opportunity by 2030 across an expanding ecosystem of new customers and partners.”
Verdict: Qualcomm's ~$900 billion edge TAM is targeted for 2030; Amon reiterated the figure at the March 2026 shareholder meeting.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Nov 14, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“ASML expects a double-digit EUV lithography spending CAGR between 2025 and 2030 for both advanced Logic and DRAM, as the continued cost-effective scalability of EUV allows customers to further transfer multi-patterning layers to single-patterning EUV 0.33 NA and EUV 0.55 NA.”
Verdict: Early evidence is supportive: ASML plans to raise low-NA EUV output capacity roughly 30% in 2027 (about 85 systems, from around 65 in 2026).
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Nov 13, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“So let's talk about AGI in general: the Anthropic timeline of 2028 seems like a good personal planning starting point. Even if you're wrong, you probably weren't going to do a lot of projects within the next 3 years anyway.”
Verdict: Gwern adopts Anthropic's ~2028 AGI timeline as his working planning assumption; resolvable at the end of 2028. A transcript of the same passage is mirrored at https://gwern.net/interview-dwarkesh.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Nov 11, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Right now, I think most of the frontier model companies are operating in roughly 1 billion scale, plus or minus a factor of three... I think next year we're going to go to a few billion, and then 2026, we may go to above 10 billion. And probably by 2027, their ambitions to build hundred billion dollar clusters. And I think all of that actually will happen.”
Verdict: The intermediate steps have broadly tracked his curve so far; the $100B-cluster milestone resolves at the end of 2027.
Partially correctJobs & EconomySaid Nov 4, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“For full year 2024: We are raising our revenue guidance to between $2.805 – $2.809 billion. We are raising our U.S. commercial revenue guidance to in excess of $687 million, representing a growth rate of at least 50%... And we continue to expect GAAP operating income and net income in each quarter of this year. (Karp on the call: 'A juggernaut is emerging... This is the software century, and we intend to take the entire market,' driven by 'unrelenting AI demand that won't slow down.')”
Verdict: Palantir over-delivered rather than hit the range: FY2024 revenue was $2.87 billion (above the raised $2.805–2.809B range), US commercial revenue reached $702 million (+54%, above the >$687M / 50% floor), and GAAP operating and net income were positive in every quarter.
Partially correctJobs & EconomySaid Nov 1, 2024Deadline Jun 30, 2025
“Apple Intelligence will ultimately be the catalyst for an iPhone upgrade 'supercycle': 'The most potent piece of this demand acceleration is likely to come in the June quarter. I don't think it's going to play out in December.'”
Verdict: Apple's June 2025 quarter was indeed the strongest of the cycle — iPhone revenue rose about 13.5% and total revenue 10% — but Munster himself conceded in May 2025 that the Apple Intelligence supercycle failed to appear: the iPhone 16 cycle (Sep '24–Jun '25) finished up only ~3% against his 8–10% forecast, and the June-quarter strength was widely attributed to tariff-driven pull-forward rather than AI features.
Partially correctEnergy & Data CentersSaid Nov 1, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“We continue to see strong data center growth in Virginia and have already connected 14 new data centers year-to-date. We now expect to connect 16 data centers in 2024, up from 15 as of our last update.”
Verdict: Dominion ended up connecting 15 new data centers in 2024 with a combined capacity of nearly 1 GW — one short of the raised 16-connection forecast — per its Q4 2024 earnings slides and FY2024 annual report.
Partially correctEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 31, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“Amazon plans to spend about $75 billion on capital expenditures in 2024 and expects an even higher number in 2025, driven primarily by generative AI: 'It is a really unusually large, maybe once-in-a-lifetime type of opportunity.'”
Verdict: Amazon's 2024 capital investments came in at roughly $83 billion, about 10% above the $75 billion Jassy cited two months before year-end; the accompanying call that 2025 would be higher was correct (2025 capex reached ~$131.8 billion).
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid Oct 31, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“The other big thing that's going to come way before actions is memory. We're going to nail memory. I mean, I'm really confident 2025 memory is done, permanent memory.”
Verdict: Persistent memory did ship broadly during 2025 across Copilot, ChatGPT and Gemini, making personalization mainstream as he predicted. But memory was not 'done': recall remains selective and unreliable, and long-term memory is still an active research problem rather than a solved one.
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid Oct 30, 2024Deadline Mar 31, 2025
“We're training the Llama 4 models on a cluster that is bigger than 100,000 H100s or bigger than anything that I've seen reported for what others are doing. I expect that the smaller Llama 4 models will be ready first, and they'll be ready, we expect, sometime early next year. And I think that they're going to be a big deal on several fronts, new modalities, capabilities, stronger reasoning, and much faster.”
Verdict: The smaller Llama 4 models (Scout and Maverick) shipped on April 5, 2025 — essentially 'early 2025' but just past the first quarter — and were natively multimodal as promised. However, the promised leap in reasoning did not materialize: the flagship Behemoth teacher model was repeatedly delayed and effectively shelved, no Llama 4 reasoning model was released, and the launch was marred by a benchmarking controversy.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Oct 30, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“All up, our AI business is on track to surpass an annual revenue run rate of $10 billion next quarter, which will make it the fastest business in our history to reach this milestone.”
Verdict: On the January 29, 2025 FY25 Q2 results, Microsoft announced its AI business had surpassed an annual revenue run rate of $13 billion, up 175% year-over-year — comfortably above the $10 billion milestone Nadella forecast for that quarter.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 29, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“'In the Data Center alone, we expect the AI accelerator TAM will grow at more than 60% annually to $500 billion in 2028. To put that in context, this is roughly equivalent to annual sales for the entire semiconductor industry in 2023.'”
Verdict: Su gave a near-identical $500 billion/2028 TAM figure at AMD's Advancing AI keynote on October 10, 2024; resolves against 2028 data center AI accelerator market size.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Oct 29, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2035
“Artificial super intelligence will be 10,000 times smarter than a human brain and will exist by 2035; realising it will require hundreds of billions of dollars of investment.”
Verdict: At the same event Son forecast $900 trillion in cumulative capex for generative AI; the ASI deadline is 2035.
CorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 29, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“We now expect Data Center GPU revenue to exceed $5 billion in 2024, up from the $4.5 billion we guided in July and our expectation of $2 billion when we started the year.”
Verdict: Narrowly met: in AMD's Q4/full-year 2024 results Su said the company 'delivered more than $5 billion of AMD Instinct accelerator revenue' in 2024.
CorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 29, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“Production shipments [of MI325X] are planned to start this quarter [Q4 2024], with widespread system availability from Dell, HP, Lenovo, Super Micro and others starting in the first quarter of 2025.”
Verdict: On the Q4 2024 call (Feb 5, 2025) Su confirmed: 'we began volume production of MI325X in the fourth quarter,' with the ramp progressing and OEM systems following in early 2025.
Partially correctJobs & EconomySaid Oct 28, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Apple will be the first company to hit a $4 trillion market cap in 2025, followed by Nvidia and then Microsoft, driven by a consumer AI supercycle across its installed base — 'we think 20% of the world's population will access AI through an Apple device.'”
Verdict: All three companies did cross $4 trillion during 2025, but the order was the reverse of Ives' call: Nvidia crossed first in July 2025, Microsoft followed later that month, and Apple only joined in late October 2025.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 23, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“If we achieve the midpoint of our development expectations, this pace of development is expected to more than double our combined renewable generation portfolio, growing from 38 gigawatts today to potentially 81 gigawatts by the end of 2027 — 'today, there are forecasts for an approximate 6x increase in power demand growth in the next 20 years versus the prior 20.'”
Verdict: Tracking: NextEra reported a development backlog of roughly 30 GW as of its Q4 2025 call; the 81 GW portfolio target resolves at the end of 2027.
CorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 23, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“HBM sales, which accounted for 30% of total DRAM revenues in the third quarter, are expected to reach 40% in the fourth quarter, as the company starts supplying 12-layer HBM3E products in Q4 as scheduled.”
Verdict: SK hynix reported with its Q4 2024 results that HBM 'continued its significant growth in the fourth quarter, accounting for over 40 percent of our total DRAM revenue,' and 12-layer HBM3E supply did begin in Q4.
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Oct 23, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“Miles between critical interventions — like you mentioned, Elon, we already made a 100x improvement with 12.5 from the starting of this year. And then with the v13 release, we expect to be a 1000x from January of this year on production software.”
Verdict: FSD v13 shipped in December 2024, but Tesla never published intervention data and crowdsourced datasets (the same ones Musk has cited) showed roughly 440–500 miles between critical disengagements — about a 2x gain over v12.5, not the ~10x implied by a 1000x-from-January figure. The companion claim that FSD would cross human miles-per-collision by Q2 2025 also failed.
CorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 17, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“We now forecast the revenue contribution from server AI processors to more than triple this year and account for mid-teens percentage of our total revenue in 2024.”
Verdict: TSMC subsequently reported that AI accelerator revenue more than tripled in 2024 and accounted for close to mid-teens percent of total 2024 revenue.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Oct 17, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“We now forecast our full-year [2024] revenue to increase by close to 30% in U.S. dollar terms.”
Verdict: TSMC's 2024 consolidated revenue was US$90.08 billion, up 30.0% year over year in U.S. dollar terms.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 16, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2039
“Amazon and X-energy "aim to bring more than 5 gigawatts [of new small modular reactor capacity] online in the United States by 2039, the largest commercial deployment target of SMRs to date," starting with an initial 320-megawatt Xe-100 project with Energy Northwest in central Washington.”
Verdict: Long-horizon target; the Energy Northwest Cascade project is currently expected to begin operating in the mid-2030s, and X-energy added Korean industrial partners and went public in April 2026.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 15, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2039
“Power demand within Dominion Energy Virginia's delivery zone is forecasted to grow 5.5% annually for the next decade and to double by 2039, with data center development and expected electric vehicle charging demand the key drivers of the projected load growth.”
Verdict: Long-dated forecast (through 2039) tied to the PJM load forecast underpinning Dominion's 2024 IRP; subsequent Dominion filings have revised load expectations upward as contracted data center capacity grew, but the doubling-by-2039 outcome cannot be judged for years.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 14, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Under Google's master plant development agreement with Kairos Power, Kairos' first small modular reactor will be brought online by 2030, with additional reactors built through 2035; in total the deal will provide "500 megawatts of new 24/7 carbon-free energy to the U.S. electricity grids."”
Verdict: In August 2025 Google, Kairos and TVA signed a PPA for the Hermes 2 plant in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, whose output was expanded from 28 MW to 50 MW and which is scheduled to come online in 2030.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 14, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2035
“Kairos Power and Google's Master Plant Development Agreement creates "a path to deploy a U.S. fleet of advanced nuclear power projects totaling 500 MW by 2035" — the first corporate agreement for multiple deployments of a single advanced reactor design in the United States.”
Verdict: Framed explicitly as an 'as early as' estimate, not a commitment.
PendingHealthcareSaid Oct 11, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2036
“My basic prediction is that AI-enabled biology and medicine will allow us to compress the progress that human biologists would have achieved over the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years. I'll refer to this as the 'compressed 21st century': the idea that after powerful AI is developed, we will in a few years make all the progress in biology and medicine that we would have made in the whole 21st century.”
Verdict: The 5-10 year window runs from the arrival of what Amodei calls 'powerful AI', which in the same essay he says could come as early as 2026 — hence an outer bound of roughly 2036 rather than the 2034 originally scraped.
PendingHealthcareSaid Oct 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2036
“Reliable prevention and treatment of nearly all natural infectious disease: 'Given the enormous advances against infectious disease in the 20th century, it is not radical to imagine that we could more or less "finish the job" in a compressed 21st' — one of the concrete outcomes expected in the 5-10 years after powerful AI is developed.”
Verdict: Target date derived from Amodei's own framing: powerful AI as early as 2026 plus the essay's 5-10 year 'compressed 21st century' window.
PendingHealthcareSaid Oct 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2036
“Elimination of most cancer in the 5-10 years after powerful AI: 'Reductions of 95% or more in both mortality and incidence seem possible. That said, cancer is extremely varied and adaptive, and is likely the hardest of these diseases to fully destroy. It would not be surprising if an assortment of rare, difficult malignancies persists.'”
Verdict: Target date derived from powerful AI as early as 2026 plus the essay's 5-10 year window.
PendingHealthcareSaid Oct 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2036
“Effective prevention and cure of genetic disease in the 5-10 years after powerful AI: 'Greatly improved embryo screening will likely make it possible to prevent most genetic disease, and some safer, more reliable descendant of CRISPR may cure most genetic disease in existing people.'”
Verdict: Target date derived from powerful AI as early as 2026 plus the essay's 5-10 year window.
PendingHealthcareSaid Oct 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2036
“Prevention of Alzheimer's in the 5-10 years after powerful AI: 'It seems like exactly the type of problem that can be solved with better measurement tools that isolate biological effects; thus I am bullish about AI's ability to solve it. There is a good chance it can eventually be prevented with relatively simple interventions, once we actually understand what is going on' — though damage from already-existing Alzheimer's may be very difficult to reverse.”
Verdict: Target date derived from powerful AI as early as 2026 plus the essay's 5-10 year window.
PendingHealthcareSaid Oct 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2036
“'Most mental illness can probably be cured... diseases like PTSD, depression, schizophrenia, addiction, etc. can be figured out and very effectively treated' within 5-10 AI-accelerated years; conditions that are very 'structural' may be more difficult, but not impossible.”
Verdict: Target date derived from powerful AI as early as 2026 plus the essay's stated 5-10 AI-accelerated year window.
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Oct 10, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“We do expect actually to start fully autonomous, unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year. And obviously that's with the Model 3 and Model Y.”
Verdict: Tesla's Austin robotaxi service launched in June 2025 with in-car safety monitors, not unsupervised operation, and California rides ran with a safety driver under state permitting rules. No customer Model 3 or Model Y received unsupervised FSD in 2025; in April 2026 Musk pushed consumer unsupervised FSD to Q4 2026 at the earliest.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Oct 10, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“We expect to be in production with the Cybercab, which is really highly optimized for autonomous transport, in probably — well, I tend to be a little optimistic with time frames — but in 2026. So yeah, before 2027, let me put it that way.”
Verdict: Deadline is end of 2026. Tesla announced in February 2026 that the first Cybercab had rolled off the production line at Giga Texas, so the claim appears on track pending volume production.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Oct 8, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“According to our research, as autonomy reduces costs and expands the market, robotaxi platforms could scale to ~$4 trillion in net revenue in 2030.”
Verdict: Narrowed to the single revenue forecast; global robotaxi revenue is still in the low billions, but the 2030 target date has not arrived.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Oct 3, 2024Deadline Oct 3, 2027
“Artificial general intelligence will arrive within the next two to three years, and AI will soon run entire households — monitoring the health of family members, calling the doctor when needed, doing grocery shopping, making reservations, judging optimal investments and tutoring young children.”
Verdict: Deadline is end-2026, but the call already looks satisfied: Tesla began paid robotaxi rides (with in-car safety monitors) in Austin on June 22, 2025, slightly ahead of Jonas's late-2025/2026 window.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 2, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2034
“Only about 5% of tasks will be profitably performed by AI over the next ten years — a mere 5% of all jobs is ripe to be taken over, or at least heavily aided, by AI over the next decade.”
Verdict: Ten-year horizon running to end-2034; resolvable against task-level automation measures of AI adoption in the US economy.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Based on the radical productivity gains that we expect AI to deliver, businesses could increase spending on software 47% at an annual rate during the next six years, from $1.1 trillion this year to $13 trillion in 2030.”
Verdict: ARK later framed this as the top end of a range — its July 2025 research gave a $3–13 trillion 2030 software-spend scenario band with a $7 trillion midpoint — so the $13 trillion figure represents its rapid-mass-adoption case.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid Sep 27, 2024Deadline Aug 28, 2025
“The Department is on track with the [Replicator] Initiative's fielding plan for next summer — thousands of all-domain, attritable autonomous systems fielded by August 2025.”
Verdict: Replicator 1 missed its summer 2025 fielding target: CRS reported DoD had fielded only 'hundreds' rather than the promised 'multiple thousands' of uncrewed systems by August 2025, though DoD said proven capabilities were transitioned to end users.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Sep 23, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2032
“It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days (!); it may take longer, but I'm confident we'll get there.”
Verdict: Target date set by interpreting 'a few thousand days' as roughly 2,000–3,000 days from September 2024 (i.e. ~2030–2032); the claim is hedged ('it is possible', 'may take longer').
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Sep 20, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“Constellation expects the Unit 1 reactor at Three Mile Island — to be renamed the Crane Clean Energy Center — to come back online in 2028, subject to Nuclear Regulatory Commission approval, returning 835 MW of carbon-free nuclear power to the grid under a 20-year power purchase agreement that matches the electricity Microsoft's data centers consume in the PJM region.”
Verdict: Still on track as of September 2026: Constellation has since pulled the target forward to 2027, FERC approved a capacity-rights transfer from Eddystone in June 2026, and NRC restart review (including a finding of no significant environmental impact) is ongoing.
“There are still significant gaps to close, but I believe it is plausible that an AGI system could be built in as little as three years — 'highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work.' No one knows how to ensure that AGI systems will be safe and controlled.”
Verdict: Deadline is September 2027. Saunders cited the then-new o1 model surpassing human experts on some technical benchmarks as evidence for the short timeline; resolution will turn on whether a system meeting OpenAI's own AGI definition exists by then.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid Sep 12, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“The future of AI is agents, and it's here. Our vision is bold: to empower one billion agents with Agentforce by the end of 2025.”
Verdict: Salesforce never reported anything close to a billion deployed agents by the end of 2025; roughly fifteen months after launch the company was touting ~29,000 Agentforce deals and about $800M in Agentforce ARR, and disclosed adoption metrics (deals, conversations, 'agentic work units') rather than agent counts. Benioff quietly dropped the billion-agent framing, and tepid Agentforce uptake was reported as a drag on the stock through 2025.
“Apple price target raised to $300, implying roughly 36% upside, as the iPhone 16 will be the company's most successful iPhone release in its history and 'Apple Intelligence will be the launching pad for the consumer AI Revolution globally.'”
Verdict: Apple shares never approached $300 during the 12-month target window, trading in the low-to-mid $200s around September 2025; the stock only pushed toward record territory later, after the iPhone 17 cycle.
CorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Sep 5, 2024Deadline Nov 3, 2024
“We expect revenue from AI to be $12 billion for fiscal year 2024 driven by Ethernet networking and custom accelerators for AI data centers.”
Verdict: Broadcom's FY2024 results (December 12, 2024) reported AI revenue of $12.2 billion, up 220% year on year — essentially exactly the $12 billion forecast.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Aug 20, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Our analysis suggests that training runs of around 2e29 FLOP are likely possible by 2030 — a significant increase in scale over current models, similar to the size difference between GPT-2 and GPT-4.”
Verdict: Claim is about technical feasibility of a ~2e29 FLOP training run by 2030; largest known runs to date remain orders of magnitude below this.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Aug 20, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“In our median projection, we expect enough manufacturing capacity to produce 100 million H100-equivalent GPUs for AI training by 2030, sufficient to power a 9e29 FLOP training run — even after accounting for GPUs being split between multiple AI labs and in part dedicated to serving models.”
Verdict: Epoch's uncertainty range spans 20M-400M H100-equivalents (1e29-5e30 FLOP); resolves against actual AI accelerator production and single-run scale in 2030.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Aug 13, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Oklo is aiming to commission a commercial-scale Aurora powerhouse at Idaho National Laboratory in 2027, which would make it the first advanced nuclear reactor completed in the U.S.”
Verdict: Deadline is still ahead, but the target has already slipped: by mid-2026 Oklo was guiding to a 2028 startup for Aurora-INL, with Kiewit signed as lead constructor and commercial operations targeted for late 2027 to early 2028.
Partially correctHealthcareSaid Aug 8, 2024Deadline Feb 8, 2026
“Highly complementary pipeline with approximately 10 clinical readouts expected over the next 18 months (Recursion alone expects 7 clinical trial readouts in that period).”
Verdict: Several guided readouts did arrive (REC-994 in CCM in September 2024, REC-2282 in NF2 in Q4 2024, REC-4881 FAP data in May and December 2025), but the combined company fell short of ~10: in May 2025 Recursion terminated REC-994, REC-2282 and REC-3964 and cut other programs, the REC-4881 LILAC cancer trial was deprioritised and later terminated without a readout, and the REC-3964 C. difficile readout never occurred.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid Aug 2, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“Well, hopefully end of this year [2024]... Grok 3, if we're lucky. [And] Grok 3 will be, I don't know, an order of magnitude better than Grok 2 — hoping for it to be state-of-the-art. I mean, this is the goal. We may fail at this goal. That's the aspiration.”
Verdict: Grok 3 did not ship in 2024; it launched on February 17, 2025, roughly two months past the stated 'end of this year' target. At release it did post leading benchmark and Chatbot Arena scores, but only briefly before rivals leapfrogged it.
PendingHealthcareSaid Aug 2, 2024Deadline Aug 2, 2029
“Even with only roughly 10, 15% of the electrodes working with Noland, our first patient, we were able to achieve twice the world record [in bits per second]. So I think we'll start vastly exceeding the world record by orders of magnitude in the years to come — start getting to, I don't know, 100 bits per second, a thousand. Maybe five years from now, we might be at a megabit, faster than any human could possibly communicate by typing or speaking.”
Verdict: Hedged ('maybe... might'), but numerically concrete: a ~1,000,000 bits-per-second brain-computer interface by August 2029, versus the single-digit-to-low-tens bps demonstrated at the time of the claim.
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid Jul 31, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“We had a strong quarter, and Meta AI is on track to be the most used AI assistant in the world by the end of the year.”
Verdict: By Meta's own metric the target was met on paper: Meta AI reached nearly 500 million monthly actives by September 2024 and almost 600 million by December, more than any rival's disclosed user base at the time. But the figure counts incidental exposure inside Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp rather than deliberate use, and ChatGPT remained the assistant people actively chose, so 'most used' is contested.
IncorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jul 31, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“The amount of compute needed to train Llama 4 will likely be almost 10x more than what we used to train Llama 3, and future models will continue to grow beyond that.”
Verdict: Llama 4 as actually trained fell far short of a 10x compute scale-up over Llama 3.1 405B (~3.8e25 FLOP): Epoch AI estimates Llama 4 Maverick at roughly 2.2e24 FLOP, and the largest model, Behemoth — reported as trained on about 32,000 H100s — at roughly 5e25 FLOP, only around 1.3x Llama 3.1 405B. Behemoth was delayed through 2025 and never publicly released.
CorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jul 30, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“As a result, we now expect data center GPU revenue to exceed $4.5 billion in 2024, up from the $4 billion we guided in April.”
Verdict: AMD reported more than $5 billion of Instinct/data center GPU revenue for 2024, exceeding the $4.5 billion target.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jul 25, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“We significantly expanded HBM3E shipments in the second quarter as demand was in full swing. In the third quarter, HBM3E shipments will significantly exceed HBM3 shipments, and we expect HBM3E to account for more than half of our total HBM shipments in 2024.”
Verdict: SK hynix confirmed HBM3E overtook HBM3 from the third quarter of 2024 and expanded further in Q4 with 12-layer parts added, but the company has never disclosed a full-year 2024 HBM3E shipment split, so the 'more than half' threshold cannot be scored definitively.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jul 24, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2031
“Renewable energy demand will triple over the next seven years — compared with what was built over the prior seven — as data center growth accelerates to facilitate the economy's shift to artificial intelligence.”
Verdict: Resolves against US renewables-and-storage additions in 2024-2031 versus 2017-2024 (NextEra cited a need for roughly 375-450 GW of new renewables and storage over the period).
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid Jul 23, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Starting next year, we expect future Llama models to become the most advanced in the industry.”
Verdict: Llama 4 launched in April 2025 to a poor reception and a benchmark-submission controversy; the flagship Llama 4 Behemoth was delayed from April to mid-2025 and then reportedly shelved over weak internal performance, and Meta reorganized into a superintelligence lab reportedly weighing closed-source models. Llama was not the most advanced family in the industry at any point in 2025.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jul 23, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“In the United States, we forecast 40,000 humanoid units by 2030.”
Verdict: Narrowed from the full 40,000 (2030) / 8 million (2040) / 63 million (2050) series; resolves on the installed base of humanoid robots in the US at year-end 2030.
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid Jul 22, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Tesla will have genuinely useful humanoid robots in low production for Tesla internal use next year.”
Verdict: Tesla did build and deploy a small number of Optimus units internally for demos and narrow tasks during 2025, but never reached genuine 'low production' of useful robots; design changes pushed the production-intent V3 version and its production line into 2026.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jul 22, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Hopefully, high production [of Tesla's humanoid robots] for other companies in 2026.”
Verdict: Deadline is end of 2026; Tesla's Optimus production timeline has already slipped once, with the production-intent V3 design moved into 2026.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jul 22, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Nvidia's revenue could be a trillion dollars by the end of the decade and Nvidia's revenues are $100 billion right now. So Nvidia itself can be a 10x.”
Verdict: Deadline is end of 2030; Nvidia's annual revenue was roughly $130 billion in the fiscal year ending January 2025, so a 10x from the ~$100 billion run-rate Lee cited remains far off but unresolved.
CorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jul 18, 2024Deadline Mar 11, 2025
“An AI Factories initiative — giving AI start-ups and researchers access to the EU's high-performance supercomputers — will be put forward within the first 100 days of the new Commission's mandate.”
Verdict: The AI Factories rollout was under way inside the 100-day window: the first AI factory sites were selected in December 2024 and von der Leyen announced the InvestAI package, including AI gigafactories, on 11 February 2025.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jul 18, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Supply of advanced AI chips will not balance with demand until 2025 or 2026 — 'I hope in 2025 or 2026 we can reach the balance' — with CoWoS advanced packaging still the bottleneck.”
Verdict: As of mid-2026 supply was still short: reporting citing Taiwan's Economic Daily put the CoWoS demand-capacity gap at roughly 20%, expected to narrow toward 10% by the end of 2026.
CorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jul 18, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“From last year to this year, we have more than doubled [CoWoS capacity]. And as I said, from this year to next year, we want to double again, or probably we want to [do] more.”
Verdict: TSMC roughly doubled CoWoS capacity again in 2025 — industry trackers put monthly capacity near 70,000–75,000 wafers by year-end, versus roughly 35,000–40,000 in 2024 — while demand continued to outstrip supply.
Partially correctJobs & EconomySaid Jul 15, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“Expect tech stocks to be up another 15% for the year [2024] — propelled not by multiples but by accelerating growth and earnings, as cloud deployments and enterprise AI spending surpass Street expectations.”
Verdict: Read as a further 15% gain from mid-July, it missed: the Nasdaq Composite rose only about 4-5% from July 15 to December 31, 2024. Read as a full-year call, tech comfortably beat it, with the Nasdaq up roughly 29% in 2024.
IncorrectJobs & EconomySaid Jun 25, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“My guess is that if important use cases don't start to become more apparent in the next 12-18 months, investor enthusiasm may begin to fade... The more time that passes without significant AI applications, the more challenging the AI story will become.”
Verdict: Eighteen months on, investor enthusiasm had intensified rather than faded: hyperscaler capex guidance for 2026 rose toward $600-700 billion, Nvidia's valuation kept climbing and AI-linked indices hit records into early 2026. Bubble skepticism grew louder in late 2025, but the pullback in enthusiasm Covello flagged did not materialize by his 12-18 month window.
Partially correctHealthcareSaid Jun 24, 2024Deadline Jun 30, 2025
“REC-4881 Familial Adenomatous Polyposis — preliminary Phase 2 data readout in the first half of 2025; REC-4881 Advanced AXIN1/APC-Mutant Cancers — preliminary Phase 2 data readout in the first half of 2025.”
Verdict: The FAP readout landed on time: preliminary Phase 1b/2 TUPELO data (median 43% polyp-burden reduction at week 13) were presented at DDW on 4 May 2025. The AXIN1/APC-mutant cancer readout never happened — the LILAC trial was deprioritised after the Exscientia merger and was later listed as terminated by sponsor decision.
Partially correctHealthcareSaid Jun 24, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“REC-3964 Clostridioides difficile Infection — Phase 2 study initiation in the fourth quarter of 2024 and preliminary data readout by the end of 2025.”
Verdict: The Phase 2 ALDER trial did start on schedule — first patient dosed in October 2024 — but Recursion discontinued the program in its Q1 2025 update (May 2025), citing low recurrence rates with existing therapies and seeking out-licensing, so no preliminary efficacy readout was delivered by the end of 2025.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Jun 24, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“2025 earnings no longer look like $270. It looks more like $285. And as interest rates moved up, the PE should be higher. So let's say 20 is a more appropriate PE multiple or even 21. Then you get into the 5,800-ish level [for the S&P 500 at year-end 2024].”
— Tom Lee, Managing Partner and Head of Research, Fundstrat Global Advisors (Wall Street). CNBC, June 24, 2024
Verdict: The S&P 500 closed 2024 at 5,881.63, within about 1.4% of his upgraded 'about 5,800' call.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jun 24, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“The S&P 500 could hit 15,000 by 2030 — roughly 20% annual gains from here, with earnings growth contributing 12% to 15% and the rest coming from a rising P/E multiple.”
Verdict: The S&P 500 was near 7,230 in September 2026, up from ~5,470 when the call was made; reaching 15,000 by end-2030 still requires roughly 20% annualized gains.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Jun 21, 2024Deadline Jun 21, 2029
“AGI — AI that is one to 10 times smarter than humans — will arrive in the next three to five years, earlier than I had anticipated.”
Verdict: Outer bound of the stated window is mid-2029; Son revised this forecast down to two-to-three years in October 2024.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jun 16, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2034
“My prediction is that in 10 years now, training data won't be important. All the large language models require scaling huge methods of data... So I think in 10 years, we'll have abilities of doing reasoning without needing to have millions of examples.”
Verdict: Deadline is 2034; as of now frontier models still depend on massive pretraining corpora, though sample-efficient reasoning via RL and test-time compute is an active trend.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Jun 12, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“ARK's price target for Tesla is $2,600 per share in 2029, with bear and bull cases valued between ~$2,000 and $3,100 per share; nearly 90% of Tesla's enterprise value and earnings will be attributed to the robotaxi business in 2029, while electric vehicles approximate a quarter of total sales and ~10% of earnings potential.”
Verdict: Resolves on Tesla's share price in 2029 against the $2,600 expected-value case (bear ~$2,000 / bull ~$3,100); the robotaxi-dominated earnings mix is a secondary check.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jun 8, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“If you look at the trajectory of improvement, systems like GPT-3 were maybe toddler-level intelligence, and then systems like GPT-4 are more like smart high-schooler intelligence. And then, in the next couple of years, we're looking at PhD-level intelligence for specific tasks.”
Verdict: The 'couple of years' window runs to the end of 2026. Frontier models already exceed human-PhD baselines on some narrow benchmarks, but whether that meets Murati's 'PhD-level intelligence for specific tasks' bar is a judgement to be made at the deadline.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jun 7, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Nvidia has a market cap of $3 trillion today. We believe Nvidia will reach a $10 trillion market cap by 2030 or sooner through a rapid product road map, an impenetrable moat from CUDA, and due to being an AI systems company that provides components well beyond GPUs.”
Verdict: Nvidia's market cap was roughly $5.5 trillion in September 2026, after briefly touching $5 trillion in October 2025. Kindig doubled this target to $20 trillion by 2030 in November 2025.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jun 7, 2024Deadline Jan 31, 2027
“The data center segment for Nvidia of $320 billion by 2027 would result in 260% growth for Nvidia's data center business from where it stands today.”
Verdict: Nvidia's data center revenue was $75.2 billion in Q1 FY2027 and $89.0 billion in Q2 FY2027, putting fiscal 2027 on track to far exceed $320 billion; formally resolves with the Q4 FY2027 report in February 2027.
Partially correctEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jun 7, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“My firm expects we will see a $200 billion data center segment [for Nvidia] by end of CY2025, propelled forward by the B100, B200 and GB200.”
Verdict: Nvidia's data center revenue across the four quarters ending January 25, 2026 was about $194 billion ($39.1B, $41.1B, $51.2B and $62.3B) — a few percent short of $200 billion, though the Q4 exit rate of $62.3 billion annualizes to roughly $250 billion.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jun 6, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2032
“We estimate the effective stock of quality and repetition adjusted human-generated public text for AI training at around 300 trillion tokens. If trends continue, language models will be trained on datasets roughly equal in size to the available stock of public human text data between 2026 and 2032, or slightly earlier if models are overtrained.”
Verdict: The 2026–2032 window is an 80% confidence interval; resolution depends on measured dataset sizes relative to Epoch's ~300T effective-token stock estimate.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Jun 4, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible. That doesn't require believing in sci-fi; it just requires believing in straight lines on a graph.”
Verdict: Deadline is end of 2027. The essay's own operationalization is an AI that functions as a 'drop-in remote worker'; no such system exists as of late 2026.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jun 4, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“The AGI race has begun. We are building machines that can think and reason. By 2025/26, these machines will outpace college graduates.”
Verdict: Deadline runs to the end of 2026. Frontier models beat college graduates on many benchmarks and exams, but whether they 'outpace' graduates as workers is contested and not yet judgeable.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Jun 4, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“By the end of the decade, they will be smarter than you or I; we will have superintelligence, in the true sense of the word.”
PendingSafety & RiskSaid Jun 4, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“As the race to AGI intensifies, the national security state will get involved. The USG will wake from its slumber, and by 27/28 we'll get some form of government AGI project. No startup can handle superintelligence.”
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jun 3, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“The cost of training frontier AI models has grown by a factor of 2 to 3x per year for the past eight years, suggesting that the largest models will cost over a billion dollars by 2027.”
Verdict: Deadline is mid-2029; as of 2026 Mercury Research estimates Arm-based client CPUs (mostly Apple Macs and Chromebooks) at ~14% of the total client market, with Windows-on-Arm share in the low single digits.
PendingSafety & RiskSaid Jun 2, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2124
“The chance that AI leads to human extinction is 99.9% within the next hundred years. If we create general superintelligences, I don't see a good outcome long term for humanity... The only way to win this game is not to play it.”
Verdict: Deadline is a century out. Yampolskiy restated the same position (odds of superintelligence killing all humans in the next hundred years 'over 99%, and there's nothing we can do to stop it') in Info-Tech Research Group's 'Digital Disruption' interview in August 2025.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jun 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2034
“AI will increase US productivity by only 0.5% and GDP growth by only 0.9% cumulatively over the next decade — a nontrivial but modest effect, and far less than the revolutionary changes some are predicting.”
Verdict: Resolves on measured US total factor productivity and GDP attributable to generative AI over 2024-2034, against Goldman's own far larger ~9% productivity / ~6% GDP estimates.
IncorrectJobs & EconomySaid Jun 2024Deadline Jun 30, 2026
“If you go forward 24 months from now, or some amount of time — I can't exactly predict where it is — it's possible that most developers are not coding.”
Verdict: The 24-month horizon ran out in June 2026 with most professional developers still writing and reviewing code, albeit heavily AI-assisted; Garman was pressed on the expired prediction in a June 2026 Platformer interview and defended continued hiring of junior engineers. (He hedged with 'it's possible,' so the miss is on the substance rather than a firm commitment.)
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid May 31, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“"We're getting really close. We can do it now pretty regularly with a prototype, but doing it in a cost-effective way is just the progress we're going to need to make. Level 3 autonomy will allow you to go hands and eyes off the road on the highway in a couple years so then your car becomes like an office." Farley expects Ford to offer the feature in 2026, potentially making it the first mass-market brand with Level 3.”
Verdict: Deadline is end of 2026. At CES in January 2026 Ford said eyes-off BlueCruise will arrive only in 2028, making a 2026 launch highly unlikely.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid May 30, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“We see a massive opportunity ahead with the data center TAM expected to grow from $21 billion last year to $75 billion in calendar 2028, a 29% CAGR — with custom accelerated compute growing from approximately $7 billion in calendar 2023 to over $40 billion in calendar 2028, a 45% CAGR.”
Verdict: Marvell itself raised this data center TAM estimate to $94 billion for 2028 at its June 2025 custom AI investor event; the 2028 outcome is not yet knowable.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid May 29, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Data centers could consume up to 9% of U.S. electricity generation by 2030 — more than double the amount currently used — which could create regional supply challenges.”
Verdict: 2030 is still in the future; EPRI has since raised its own projection by roughly 60% (to 9%–17% by 2030) in its February 2026 update.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid May 22, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2034
“AGI is still quite a few years away. Today a lot of people talk about AGI — they're saying it's probably two years away, probably five years away. I think it is more than 10 years away... today's most powerful models are far from that. And how do you achieve that level of intelligence? We don't know.”
Verdict: Claim resolves only after 2034: Li's position is that no AGI (AI as smart as or smarter than a human) arrives before roughly mid-2034.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid May 21, 2024Deadline May 21, 2029
“Clearly agents with the capacity I've described will occur in the next few years. There won't be one day when we realize "Oh, my God." It is more about the cumulative evolution of capabilities every month, every six months and so forth. A reasonable expectation is that we will be in this new world within five years, not 10.”
Verdict: The 'new world' Schmidt describes is the convergence of very large context windows, autonomous agents and text-to-action capability.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid May 19, 2024Deadline May 19, 2027
“AGI is most definitely not 2-3 years away.”
— Grady Booch, IBM Fellow and Chief Scientist for Software Engineering, IBM Research; co-creator of UML (Researcher). Grady Booch post on X, May 19, 2024
Verdict: Deadline (three years from the post) falls in May 2027; no system has been broadly accepted as AGI as of early 2026.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid May 15, 2024Deadline May 15, 2026
“Even in one or two years, we'll find that the models can do a lot more involved tasks than they can do now. For example, you could imagine having the models carry out a whole coding project instead of it giving you one suggestion on how to write a function. You could imagine the model taking high-level instructions on what to code and going out on its own, writing any files, and testing it, and looking at the output. It might even iterate on that a bit.”
Verdict: Well within the two-year window, agentic coding tools (Claude Code, OpenAI Codex, Cursor and Devin-style agents) routinely take high-level instructions, create and edit files across a whole project, run tests, read the output and iterate — exactly the capability Schulman described, though reliability on large projects remains uneven.
Partially correctSafety & RiskSaid May 15, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“The Senate will advance AI legislation as it's ready rather than wait for a mega-bill, with potential floor action as soon as this year: 'What we expect is that we would have some bills that certainly pass the Senate… by the end of the year.'”
Verdict: The Senate did pass narrow AI bills in 2024 — most notably the DEFIANCE Act on deepfake imagery, passed by unanimous consent in July 2024 — but the committee-driven agenda in the roadmap never reached the floor, no substantive AI framework passed, and the deepfake bills died in the House that Congress.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid May 14, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“AI Overviews will begin rolling out to everyone in the U.S. starting today, with more countries soon. By the end of the year, AI Overviews will come to over a billion people in Google Search.”
Verdict: Hit ahead of schedule: on Alphabet's Q3 2024 earnings call (October 29, 2024) Pichai said AI Overviews was expanding to over 100 new countries and 'will now reach more than 1 billion users on a monthly basis.' Usage kept climbing to 1.5 billion by May 2025 and 2 billion by mid-2025.
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid May 14, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“Some of these agent capabilities [Project Astra] will come to Google products like the Gemini app later this year.”
Verdict: Gemini Live shipped in August 2024 at the Made by Google event and was billed as the first Project Astra-derived feature, so some capabilities did land in the Gemini app in 2024 — but the signature Astra demo features, live camera and screen sharing, only began rolling out to Gemini users in late March 2025.
Partially correctJobs & EconomySaid May 13, 2024Deadline May 13, 2026
“Artificial intelligence is hitting the global labour market like a tsunami: AI is likely to impact 60% of jobs in advanced economies and 40% of jobs around the world in the next two years. We have very little time to get people ready for it, businesses ready for it.”
Verdict: AI exposure and adoption did spread broadly across white-collar occupations by mid-2026, but no 'tsunami'-scale labour-market impact on 60% of advanced-economy jobs materialised within the two-year window: the ECB reported in February 2026 that AI was raising productivity without a wave of redundancies, and the Fed judged AI's measured labour-market effects still limited.
CorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid May 2, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“In terms of production, our HBM chips have already sold out for this year and are almost sold out for 2025.”
Verdict: SK hynix's 2025 HBM output was indeed fully booked: at the March 2025 AGM Kwak confirmed 'this year's HBM supply volume has already sold out,' and the company went on to post record HBM-driven revenue and profit in 2025.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid May 2, 2024Deadline Sep 30, 2024
“We plan to provide samples of our next-generation 12-layer HBM3E chip to clients in May and begin mass production in the third quarter [of 2024].”
Verdict: SK hynix announced on September 26, 2024 that it had begun mass production of the world's first 12-layer, 36GB HBM3E — inside the promised third quarter — after sampling in the spring.
CorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid May 2, 2024Deadline Sep 30, 2026
“Construction of the M15X fab in Cheongju has started, for completion in November 2025, with mass production from the third quarter of 2026.”
Verdict: Construction finished essentially on schedule (cleanroom opened and equipment installation began in October 2025, completion at end-2025 rather than November), and the fab's HBM3E/HBM4 ramp was pulled forward into the first half of 2026 — ahead of the promised third-quarter 2026 start.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid May 2, 2024Deadline May 31, 2027
“Four fabs will be built sequentially at the Yongin Semiconductor Cluster, with construction of the first fab scheduled to begin in March 2025 and be completed in May 2027.”
Verdict: On track so far: SK hynix broke ground on the first Yongin fab in late February 2025, slightly ahead of the March plan, with the 9.4 trillion won facility still targeted for completion in May 2027.
CorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Apr 30, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“MI300 demand continues to strengthen, and based on our expanding customer engagements, we now expect data center GPU revenue to exceed $4 billion in 2024, up from the $3.5 billion we guided in January.”
Verdict: AMD ended 2024 with more than $5 billion of data center GPU (Instinct) revenue, comfortably above the raised $4 billion target.
IncorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Apr 25, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“We now expect over $500 million in accelerator revenue in 2H of 2024, with increasing momentum into 2025 based on Gaudi 3's vastly superior TCO as well as our own expanding supply.”
Verdict: On Intel's Q3 2024 earnings call Gelsinger conceded: 'The overall uptake of Gaudi has been slower than we anticipated… As a result, we will not achieve our target of $500 million in revenue for Gaudi in 2024.'
“With the help of AI, scientists will likely 'understand most diseases' in the next three to five years — 'a first for humans on the planet.' If you understand the disease, you will find a way to go fix it.”
Verdict: Deadline is the outer end of Bancel's three-to-five-year window (April 2029); resolution will turn on whether AI-driven biology delivers fundamental mechanistic understanding of 'most diseases' by then.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Apr 18, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“For the next 5 years, we forecast it [server AI processor revenue] to grow at 50% CAGR and increase to higher than 20% of our revenue by 2028.”
Verdict: AI accelerator revenue reached a high-teens percent of TSMC's total revenue in 2025, leaving the >20%-by-2028 target on track; TSMC has since raised its five-year AI CAGR guidance to the mid-to-high 50s.
CorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Apr 18, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“Almost all the AI innovators are working with TSMC to address the insatiable AI-related demand for energy efficient computing power — we estimate the revenue contribution from server AI processors to more than double this year [2024].”
Verdict: TSMC exceeded the forecast: by the October 2024 call it had raised the outlook to 'more than triple,' and AI accelerator revenue ended 2024 at close to mid-teens percent of total revenue, up from roughly 6% in 2023.
CorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Apr 18, 2024Deadline Jun 30, 2025
“In Arizona, we have started engineering wafer production with N4 process technology and are on track for volume production in the first half of 2025; once we begin volume production we are confident to deliver the same level of manufacturing quality and reliability as our fabs in Taiwan.”
Verdict: TSMC Arizona Fab 21 entered high-volume N4 production in Q4 2024 — ahead of the first-half-2025 target — with yields TSMC said were comparable to its Taiwan fabs.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid Apr 18, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“And we're targeting proof of technology testing in factories at Hyundai Motor Group [HMG] as early as next year [2025]. HMG is really excited about this venture; they want to transform their manufacturing and they see Atlas as a big part of that.”
Verdict: No Atlas proof-of-technology testing took place in a Hyundai factory during 2025. Boston Dynamics only began pilot operations at the Robotics Metaplant Application Center inside Hyundai's Metaplant America in June 2026 (center formally opened 21 September 2026), with assembly-line deployment in Georgia now targeted for 2028.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Apr 12, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“The S&P 500 could end the year at 5,700 or 'maybe even higher' — investors are putting too much weight on the recent hot CPI report: 'Inflation is normalizing, it's just not evident in the total picture.'”
Verdict: The S&P 500 closed 2024 at 5,881.63, above the 5,700 he called for — consistent with his 'or maybe even higher' framing.
CorrectAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Apr 9, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Dear @elonmusk, $1 million says your latest prediction – that AI will be smarter than any individual human by the end of 2025 – is wrong. Game?”
— Gary Marcus, Cognitive scientist, Professor Emeritus of Psychology and Neural Science at NYU, author of 'Taming Silicon Valley' (Researcher). Gary Marcus on X, 9 April 2024
Verdict: No AI system exceeded the best individual humans across intellectual work by the end of 2025; even Marcus's more general 'we will not see AGI in 2025' prediction was graded correct by third-party reviewers. Musk never accepted the bet (which was raised to $10M by investor Damion Hankejh) despite press inquiries.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Apr 9, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“By the end of the decade, AI data centers could consume as much as 20% to 25% of U.S. power requirements. Today that's probably 4% or less.”
Verdict: Target year is 2030; mainstream forecasts (LBNL, EPRI) currently put total US data center consumption at roughly 9%–17% of US electricity by 2030, well below Haas's 20–25% figure.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Apr 8, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“TSMC Arizona's second fab will produce 2nm process technology with next-generation nanosheet transistors in addition to the previously announced 3nm technology, with production beginning in 2028; the third fab will produce chips using 2nm or more advanced processes, with production beginning by the end of the decade.”
Verdict: Construction of the second Arizona fab structure was completed in 2025 with N3 volume production targeted for the second half of 2027, and TSMC broke ground on the third fab (N2/A16) in April 2025.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Apr 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“I think by 2030, maybe even sooner, we will have more than one billion software developers on GitHub. Think about that: 10 percent of the world's population will not only control a computer but will also be able to create software just as if they were riding a bicycle.”
Verdict: Resolvable against GitHub's own reported user counts at the end of 2030; GitHub had roughly 100 million developers when the prediction was made. Dohmke stepped down as GitHub CEO in 2025.
“In the next year, you're going to see very large context windows, agents and text action. When they are delivered at scale, it's going to have an impact on the world at a scale that no one understands yet. Much bigger than the horrific impact we've had by social media in my view.”
Verdict: The three technical ingredients did arrive within the year: million-token context windows became standard (Gemini, Claude, Llama 4), and agentic/computer-use and coding agents shipped broadly through 2024-2025. But the claimed societal impact 'much bigger than social media' had not materialized by 2025 — the technology arrived, the world-scale disruption did not.
“Say to your LLM the following: Make me a copy of TikTok, steal all the users, steal all the music, put my preferences in it, produce this program in the next 30 seconds, release it and in one hour, if it's not viral, do something different along the same lines. That's the command... Imagine that each and every human on the planet has their own programmer that actually does what they want... That's all within the next year or two.”
Verdict: By 2026 'vibe coding' platforms (Lovable, Base44, Replit Agent, Claude Code, Codex) do let ordinary users generate working apps — including social-video clones — from a prompt in minutes, so the 'everyone has their own programmer' part broadly arrived. But no system executes the described loop: no 30-second production-grade TikTok replica, no ingesting of a rival's users and music catalog, and no autonomous relaunch-until-viral iteration.
PendingHealthcareSaid Apr 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2035
“By the end of this decade, as we go into the 2030s, we're going to achieve a new milestone. It's called longevity escape velocity... Right now you go through a year and you use up a year of your longevity. However, scientific progress is also progressing... So right now you're getting back about four months... And as we get to the early 2030s, let's say between 2029 and 2035, depending on how diligent you are, you're going to get back a full year.”
Verdict: Resolves on whether, by 2035, medical/AI-driven progress adds at least a full year of remaining life expectancy per year lived for a diligent individual; Kurzweil elsewhere gives 2029 as his earlier bound for the same milestone.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Mar 28, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2049
“If one takes a view over the next generation, this could be the biggest thing that has happened in economic history since the Industrial Revolution... This offers the prospect of not replacing some forms of human labor, but almost all forms of human labor.”
Verdict: Generational horizon (~2049); Summers paired the claim with the view that productivity gains would take years to materialize, so nothing is resolvable yet.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Mar 26, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“Under 'Network of the Future,' UPS will more than triple the number of automated buildings in its network to 400 facilities by the end of 2028 — closing roughly 200 conventional U.S. sortation facilities and driving $3 billion of costs out of the business by 2028, adding capacity with less dependence on labor.”
Verdict: Target runs through 2028. Progress to date: UPS says it closed 93 buildings and deployed automation in 57 facilities in 2025 alone, with 63 major automation projects underway out of a ~$9 billion automation program.
IncorrectJobs & EconomySaid Mar 26, 2024Deadline Mar 26, 2025
“Microsoft price target raised to $500 from $475: Copilot represents Microsoft's 'iPhone moment… as this AI revolution plays out across the tech ecosystem over the coming years with Nvidia and Microsoft leading the way as this $1 trillion AI tidal wave hits the shores of the tech world.'”
Verdict: Microsoft peaked around $468 in July 2024 and traded near $390 in late March 2025, so the stock did not reach the $500 12-month target; it only crossed $500 in mid-2025.
IncorrectJobs & EconomySaid Mar 26, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Copilot could add between $25 billion and $30 billion to Microsoft's revenue by 2025.”
Verdict: Microsoft does not break out Copilot revenue, but with roughly 20 million paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats reported by late 2025, implied annualized Copilot revenue was in the single-digit billions — an order of magnitude below $25–30 billion.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Mar 26, 2024Deadline Mar 26, 2027
“Within the next three years, 70% of Microsoft's enterprise installed base will be on the company's artificial-intelligence-driven functionality.”
Verdict: Deadline is March 2027; Microsoft reports Copilot seat milestones rather than an installed-base penetration rate, so resolution will rest on disclosed paid-seat counts versus its ~450 million commercial Microsoft 365 seats.
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid Mar 21, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“I think AI agentic workflows will drive massive AI progress this year — perhaps even more than the next generation of foundation models. This is an important trend, and I urge everyone who works in AI to pay attention to it.”
Verdict: Agentic workflows did become the defining trend of 2024 and drove large gains (e.g., agentic coding systems lifting SWE-bench from ~14% to ~49%), but the year's biggest single capability jump came from a new generation of reasoning foundation models (o1/o3), so the comparative half of the claim did not clearly hold.
IncorrectAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Mar 13, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“AI will probably be smarter than any single human next year.”
Verdict: No AI system was smarter than the smartest single human by the end of 2025; frontier models remained below top human experts across many domains. Musk himself walked the timeline back in January 2025, shifting to vaguer language about what AI 'will do'.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Mar 13, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“By 2029, AI is probably smarter than all humans combined.”
Verdict: Deadline is end of 2029. The companion half of the same post — AI smarter than any single human by 2025 — did not come true.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Mar 13, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Datacenter power capacity growth will accelerate from a 12-15% CAGR to a 25% CAGR over the next few years. Global Datacenter Critical IT power demand will surge from 49 Gigawatts (GW) in 2023 to 96 GW by 2026, of which AI will consume ~40 GW.”
Verdict: Deadline is end-2026. SemiAnalysis itself later claimed the forecast 'proved very accurate'; final resolution requires 2026 full-year global critical IT power capacity data.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Mar 7, 2024Deadline Mar 7, 2034
“Before we get all those things to work together, and then on top of this, have systems that can learn hierarchical planning, hierarchical representations, systems that can be configured for a lot of different situations at hand, the way the human brain can, all of this is going to take at least a decade and probably much more... So it's not just around the corner.”
Verdict: A lower-bound claim: human-level AI arrives no sooner than ~2034. It is falsified only if a system with human-level, configurable, hierarchically-planning intelligence appears before then.
CorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Mar 7, 2024Deadline Nov 3, 2024
“I know we told you in December, our revenue from AI would be 25% of our full-year semiconductor revenue. We now expect revenue from AI to be much stronger, representing some 35% of semiconductor revenue at over $10 billion.”
Verdict: FY2024 AI revenue was $12.2 billion out of $30.1 billion of semiconductor revenue — roughly 41%, comfortably above both the 'over $10 billion' and 'some 35%' markers.
PendingHealthcareSaid Mar 6, 2024Deadline Mar 31, 2030
“It costs £3.4 billion to modernise NHS IT systems — including using AI to cut form-filling and speed up diagnosis — but it helps unlock £35 billion of savings, 10 times that amount, over the next Parliament.”
Verdict: The £35 billion is framed as cumulative NHS productivity savings from 2025/26 to 2029/30, so it cannot be judged before the end of the 2029/30 financial year; the plan's delivery has since been reshaped by the change of government.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid Mar 4, 2024Deadline Jun 30, 2024
“By now it's become clear that this June we will see their [Apple's] first foundation model, something that will compete with GPT, Gemini, xAI, Anthropic.”
Verdict: Apple unveiled Apple Intelligence, built on its own Apple Foundation Models, at WWDC on June 10, 2024, within the predicted window. Munster's accompanying framing of the opportunity as roughly $33 billion a year in revenue, moving earnings in double digits, carried no deadline and has not materialized.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Mar 1, 2024Deadline Mar 1, 2029
“Within five years, AI will pass every test a human can take.”
Verdict: AI already matches or beats humans on many standardized exams; comprehensive coverage of 'every test' remains open.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Mar 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Asked whether his 2017 prediction that AI would displace 50% of human jobs by 2027 still holds: "It's actually uncannily accurate. People have criticized me for being too aggressive in 2017, 2018, 2019, and I was a little nervous."”
Verdict: Resolves at the end of 2027 against measured job displacement; as of 2026 aggregate labor-market data show nothing approaching 50% displacement.
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid Mar 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Our Meteor Lake product on Intel 4 is ramping rapidly with 40 million units expected in 2024… Together, we expect to ship well over 100 million AI PCs in 2024 and 2025.”
Verdict: Intel said through 2024 it would exceed its 40 million AI PC CPU target for the year (helped by counting Lunar Lake and Arrow Lake, not Meteor Lake alone), but the two-year goal fell short: Intel confirmed it had shipped 'nearly 100 million' AI PC processors by the end of 2025, not 'well over 100 million.'
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid Mar 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“Arrow Lake, our lead Intel 20A vehicle, is slated for launch this year [2024]. Our first Intel 18A client platform, Panther Lake, is now in fab as well.”
Verdict: Arrow Lake did launch in October 2024, but not on Intel 20A: Intel shelved 20A for high-volume manufacturing in September 2024 and built Arrow Lake's compute tile at TSMC. Panther Lake was indeed in fab and later became Intel's first 18A product, entering high-volume production in late 2025.
CorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Feb 29, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“The chip shortage is behind us, but the next shortage will be voltage step-down transformers, and after that electricity: "They won't be able to find enough electricity to run all the chips. I think next year, you'll see they just can't find enough electricity to run all the chips."”
Verdict: Power, not chips, became the binding constraint in 2025: Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said in November 2025 that Microsoft had GPUs "sitting in inventory" it could not plug in because it lacked "warm shells"/power, and transformer and grid-interconnection lead times stretched to multiple years. There was no consumer-facing electricity shortage, but the specific prediction — not enough electricity to run all the chips in 2025 — was borne out.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Feb 27, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2035
“The total addressable market for humanoid robots will reach $38 billion by 2035 — up more than sixfold from a previous $6 billion projection — with robot shipments rising fourfold to 1.4 million units over the same time frame, on a much faster path to profitability driven by a roughly 40% reduction in the cost of materials.”
Verdict: Deadline is 2035; Goldman has since been reported to have raised this forecast substantially, and rival houses (BofA, Morgan Stanley) now publish materially larger 2035 numbers.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Feb 26, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Our investments in leading-edge logic chip manufacturing will put this country on track to produce roughly 20% of the world's leading-edge logic chips by the end of the decade. That's a big deal. Why is that a big deal? Because folks, today we're at zero.”
Verdict: Resolves against world leading-edge logic output share in 2030; the U.S. produced none at the time of the claim, with TSMC Arizona and Intel 18A ramps the main contributors.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Feb 21, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“We are advancing our goal of becoming the world's second-largest foundry by 2030.”
Verdict: Deadline is 2030. Intel Foundry's external customer traction has so far been limited, and Gelsinger departed as CEO in December 2024.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Feb 12, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“There's about a trillion dollars' worth of installed base of data centers; over the next four to five years another trillion dollars' worth of data center infrastructure will be built, so we'll have $2 trillion of data centers powering software around the world.”
Verdict: Deadline is the end of 2029 (taking the outer bound of Huang's 'four to five years'). Huang made the remark while arguing that compute efficiency gains meant Sam Altman's reported $7 trillion ask was unnecessary.
CorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Feb 12, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“We are cautiously optimistic about achieving our AI revenue goal of at least $750 million in AI networking in 2025.”
Verdict: Arista's FY2025 results (reported February 12, 2026) showed revenue of $9.006 billion, and Ullal stated: 'We exceeded both our AI networking and campus expansion goals.' The $750 million back-end AI target was met, with total AI networking revenue around $1.6 billion and 2026 guidance of $3.25 billion.
Partially correctJobs & EconomySaid Feb 5, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“For full year 2024, we expect: Revenue of between $2.652 – $2.668 billion. US commercial revenue in excess of $640 million, representing a growth rate of at least 40%... GAAP operating income in each quarter of this year. GAAP net income in each quarter of this year.”
Verdict: The floors were cleared but the revenue range was too low: FY2024 revenue was $2.87 billion (above the $2.652–2.668B range), US commercial revenue grew 54% to $702 million (vs. 'at least 40%' and >$640M), and Palantir was GAAP profitable in all four quarters.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Feb 2024Deadline Feb 28, 2025
“Palantir is the 'Messi of AI' — price target raised to $30 following its fourth-quarter results, implying about 40% upside.”
Verdict: Palantir cleared $30 in August 2024 and traded near $100 by February 2025, far above the 12-month target.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jan 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“The convergence of hardware and software could drive AI training costs down by 75% at an annual rate through 2030 — accelerated compute hardware reducing relative-compute-unit production costs by 53% per year while algorithmic enhancements lower training costs a further 47% per year.”
Verdict: Runs through 2030; ARK has continued to cite roughly 75%-per-year training-cost declines in later Big Ideas editions.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jan 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Catalyzed by breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, the global equity market value associated with disruptive innovation could increase from 16% of the total to more than 60% by 2030. As a result, the annualized equity return associated with disruptive innovation could exceed 40% during the next seven years, increasing its market capitalization from ~$19 trillion today to roughly $220 trillion by 2030.”
— ARK Invest, Asset manager; Big Ideas 2024 annual research report (Investor). ARK Invest, Big Ideas 2024
Verdict: Resolves in 2030 on the market capitalization of disruptive-innovation equities versus the ~$220 trillion / >60%-of-global-market-cap projection.
PendingHealthcareSaid Jan 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Based on ARK's research, the enterprise value of companies focused on precision therapies could appreciate 28% at an annual rate during the next seven years, from ~$820 billion in 2023 to ~$4.5 trillion by 2030, as multiomic tools and technology reduce research and development spending per drug by more than 25%.”
— ARK Invest, Asset manager; Big Ideas 2024 annual research report (Investor). ARK Invest, Big Ideas 2024
Verdict: Resolves in 2030 on the aggregate enterprise value of precision-therapy companies versus the ~$4.5 trillion projection.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Jan 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2034
“According to ARK's research, robotaxi platforms could redefine personal mobility and generate $28 trillion in enterprise value during the next five to ten years.”
Verdict: Horizon runs to 2034 (the far end of ARK's stated five-to-ten-year window); global robotaxi platform enterprise value today remains orders of magnitude below $28 trillion.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Jan 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“According to ARK's research, autonomous delivery revenues could scale from essentially nil today to $900 billion in 2030.”
Verdict: ARK breaks the 2030 figure into roughly $440 billion of robot/drone last-mile delivery fees plus autonomous trucking; autonomous delivery revenue today is still negligible. Tracks alongside, but is distinct from, ARK's 2023 $1–2 trillion autonomous-logistics estimate.
CorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jan 30, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“'Based on the strong customer pull and expanded engagements, we now expect Data Center GPU revenue to grow sequentially in the first quarter and exceed $3.5 billion in 2024' — up from the earlier $2 billion forecast, after MI300 revenue exceeded $400 million in the quarter and became the fastest revenue ramp of any product in AMD history.”
Verdict: AMD's February 4, 2025 results announcement stated it delivered 'more than $5 billion of AMD Instinct accelerator revenue' in 2024, comfortably clearing the $3.5 billion target Su set in January 2024.
Partially correctSafety & RiskSaid Jan 23, 2024Deadline Jul 1, 2024
“Daily bad-actor AI activity will escalate by mid-2024 — with AI-manipulated content spreading across online communities on a near-daily basis — increasing the threat that it could affect election results in the more than 50 countries voting this year, including the U.S.”
Verdict: AI-generated and AI-manipulated content did become an essentially daily feature of online political discourse by mid-2024, matching the paper's directional forecast, but the accompanying threat to election results did not materialize: post-election reviews found deepfakes relatively scarce, non-AI 'cheap fakes' far more common, and no election outcome demonstrably changed.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Jan 19, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2033
“The model estimates a 10% chance of transformative AI — defined as 'AI that if deployed widely, would precipitate a change comparable to the industrial revolution' — being developed by 2025, and a 50% chance of it being developed by 2033.”
Verdict: The model's 10%-by-2025 leg did not come in — no industrial-revolution-scale transformation occurred by 2025 — but the headline 50%-by-2033 estimate resolves at the end of 2033. TIME notes Epoch researchers themselves expect slower progress than the model implies.
CorrectAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Jan 18, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“We're building massive compute infrastructure to support our future roadmap, including 350,000 H100s by the end of this year — and overall almost 600,000 H100 equivalents of compute if you include other GPUs. Our long term vision is to build general intelligence, open source it responsibly, and make it widely available.”
Verdict: Meta does not publish audited GPU counts, but its buildout tracked the target: analysts put Meta among Nvidia's two largest H100 buyers in 2024, and Zuckerberg's January 2025 target of 'more than 1.3 million GPUs' by end-2025 was reported as roughly a doubling of the fleet, consistent with ~600,000 H100-equivalents at the end of 2024.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jan 18, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“The right modern Turing test would be to evaluate whether an AI was capable of acting like an entrepreneur, a mini project manager, an inventor of a new product — to go and market it, manufacture it, sell it and so on to make a profit. I'm pretty sure that within the next five years, certainly before the end of the decade, we are going to have not just those capabilities, but those capabilities widely available for very cheap, potentially even in open source.”
Verdict: Related to but distinct from his 2023 'modern Turing test / make $1 million' formulation: this version was stated at Davos with a five-year / end-of-decade horizon rather than 'as little as two years away.'
Partially correctJobs & EconomySaid Jan 18, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“We forecast the overall semiconductor market excluding memory to increase by more than 10% in 2024, while foundry industry growth is forecast to be approximately 20%. For TSMC, we expect our full-year 2024 revenue to increase by low- to mid-20s percent in U.S. dollar terms.”
Verdict: TSMC did comfortably outgrow the foundry industry, but it beat its own guidance: 2024 revenue was US$90.08 billion, up 30% in U.S. dollar terms, above the low- to mid-20s percent range (TSMC raised the guidance twice during the year).
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jan 17, 2024Deadline Jan 17, 2034
“Within 10 years, around 95% of the world's top tech companies will be American thanks to the U.S. lead in AI.”
Verdict: Horizon runs to January 2034; Karp also predicted AI-driven GDP growth concentrated in a handful of countries and companies, causing political and social 'dislocation.'
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jan 16, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“You've got to start with overall productivity. Artificial intelligence, today's form, is going to generate $4 trillion of annual productivity before the end of the decade. That is incredible economic competitiveness for companies and nations.”
Verdict: Resolves against estimates of annual global productivity/output gains attributable to generative AI by the end of 2029; Krishna has repeated the $4 trillion figure since (e.g. SXSW 2025), while other houses have since published higher ranges.
IncorrectJobs & EconomySaid Jan 6, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“Most contrarian belief for 2024: the enterprise value of OpenAI goes down.”
Verdict: OpenAI's valuation rose sharply in 2024, from roughly $86B in the early-2024 tender to about $157B in the October 2024 round; the All-In hosts scored it themselves, noting it 'roughly doubled.'
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jan 2, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“We now expect revenues to grow about 15x during 2022–27, expanding from USD 28bn in 2022 to USD 420bn in 2027 — a 72% CAGR — with AI infrastructure spending rising from USD 25.8bn to USD 195bn (a 50% CAGR) and AI applications and models growing from USD 2.2bn to USD 225bn.”
Verdict: Target year 2027; resolvable against UBS's own AI industry revenue tracking and third-party AI revenue estimates.
PendingSafety & RiskSaid Jan 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2047
“Surveying 2,778 AI researchers: the median respondent gives a 5% probability that advanced AI causes human extinction or similarly permanent and severe disempowerment of the human species, and the aggregate forecast gives a 50% chance that high-level machine intelligence — machines able to accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers — arrives by 2047.”
Verdict: The HLMI component resolves in 2047; the survey's aggregate timeline had already shortened by roughly 13 years versus the same survey in 2022.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Jan 1, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“We believe tech stocks will be up 25% in 2024 with a Nasdaq 20k level our bull case scenario, as the Street is still significantly underestimating how quickly this AI monetization cycle is playing out among enterprises in the field.”
Verdict: The Nasdaq Composite rose about 29% in 2024 (closing at 19,310.79) and the Nasdaq-100 returned about 25%, with the Nasdaq-100 eclipsing the 20,000 level for the first time in December 2024 — matching both the base and bull cases.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Jan 1, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“I predict that, like in every prior year, 2024 will NOT see the sort of AI econ impact or investment prices that one might expect if it were about take over most of the economy in a decade or so. In fact, I'd bet on this at 10-1 odds.”
— Robin Hanson, Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University; author of The Age of Em (Economist). Robin Hanson on X, January 1, 2024
Verdict: 2024 showed no macroeconomic signature of imminent economy-wide automation: US real GDP grew roughly 2.8%, productivity growth was normal-to-good, aggregate labor markets showed no AI-driven displacement, and real interest rates did not move as they would if markets priced AI taking over most of the economy within a decade. AI-related equity and capex booms (e.g. Nvidia) were large but far below takeover-scale pricing, so the claim resolves in Hanson's favor, though its wording is subjective.
PendingSafety & RiskSaid Jan 2024Deadline Jan 1, 2034
“[On how much time is left before AI poses catastrophic risk:] We might have one year, two years, five years. I don't think we have 10 years.”
Verdict: Deadline is January 2034; as of 2026 no catastrophic AI outcome has occurred, but the claim's outer bound has not yet been reached.
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid Dec 31, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“Prediction: 2024 will feel like a breakthrough year in terms of AI capability, safety, and general positivity about its potential impact. In the longer term, it'll look like just one more year on an exponential that can make everyone's lives better than anyone's today.”
Verdict: Capability did advance sharply in 2024 (o1/o3 reasoning models, Sora, Claude 3.5), but the safety and 'general positivity' halves went the other way: OpenAI dissolved its Superalignment team in May 2024 amid senior safety departures, and public/enterprise sentiment turned more skeptical. A public forecasting market on this exact prediction resolved NO.
IncorrectSafety & RiskSaid Dec 27, 2023Deadline Nov 5, 2024
“I expect a tsunami of misinformation [in the 2024 U.S. election]. I can't prove that. I hope to be proven wrong. But the ingredients are there, and I am completely terrified... You could see a political candidate like President Biden being rushed to a hospital. You could see a candidate saying things that he or she never actually said.”
Verdict: The feared AI 'tsunami' did not materialize: post-election analyses (Kapoor & Narayanan's review of 78 election deepfakes for the Knight Institute, and the Harvard Ash Center's 'apocalypse that wasn't') found AI-generated deception had limited reach, with non-AI 'cheap fakes' documented roughly seven times more often. AI content was everywhere, but no deepfake of the kind Etzioni described disrupted the vote.
IncorrectJobs & EconomySaid Dec 27, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“Reddit will be acquired for their data. A company with a LLM will buy Reddit to train its model from.”
Verdict: Reddit was not acquired in 2024; it went public in an IPO in March 2024 and instead monetized its data through licensing deals (notably with Google and OpenAI) rather than being bought by an LLM developer.
Partially correctSafety & RiskSaid Dec 27, 2023Deadline Nov 5, 2024
“AI will negatively impact the 2024 Presidential Election. Intentionally misleading content will be released to interfere with the election (e.g., deepfakes).”
Verdict: AI-generated deepfakes and misleading political content did circulate during the 2024 campaign (e.g., the fake Biden robocall in New Hampshire), but post-election assessments from the Brennan Center, TIME and the Washington Post concluded AI did not meaningfully disrupt or sway the election, making the 'negative impact' far smaller than predicted.
PendingSafety & RiskSaid Dec 26, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2040
“So my P(Doom) is 50% by 2040, which is, like Zvi said, like Jan Leike said, a ballpark figure, so you can also call it 10 to 90.”
Verdict: Deadline is 2040; Shapira has since restated the same 50% figure on his own Doom Debates show.
IncorrectJobs & EconomySaid Dec 22, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“Deflation will be a key theme in 2024 — driven by technology and the unwinding of supply-chain and inventory excesses — prompting the Federal Reserve to cut rates aggressively.”
Verdict: US consumer prices never turned negative in 2024 — headline CPI inflation stayed positive all year and ended around 2.9% year over year — and the Fed cut only 100 basis points, beginning in September, rather than cutting aggressively against deflation.
IncorrectJobs & EconomySaid Dec 22, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“I think that 2024 may be the year that we start to see workers take real action — white-collar workers in fields like law, finance, medicine, media and tech starting to unionize to counteract job losses caused by AI and automation.”
Verdict: Roose's own operationalized market — requiring significant new AI/automation-driven union activity in at least three of law, finance, medicine, media and tech by December 31, 2024 — resolved NO. No broad white-collar unionization wave against AI job losses materialized in 2024.
CorrectSafety & RiskSaid Dec 20, 2023Deadline Nov 5, 2024
“Although AI will be used in elections [in 2024], it will not be 'at the scale yet that everyone imagines.' Rather, it will be the narrative of what havoc AI could have that will have the bigger impact.”
Verdict: AI was used throughout the 2024 cycle but nowhere near the imagined scale: Kapoor and Narayanan catalogued only 78 election deepfakes worldwide, the News Literacy Project found non-AI 'cheap fakes' about seven times more common, and analysts concluded the anticipated AI election apocalypse never arrived — while the narrative about deepfakes drew far more attention than the deepfakes themselves, as she forecast.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Dec 19, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“AI goes mainstream in 2024: 'We believe AI is the biggest transformation in the tech sector in the last 30 years and is a 1995 Moment not seen since the start of the internet' — AI and related purchases will account for 8% to 10% of IT budgets in 2024, up from less than 1% in 2023.”
Verdict: There is no authoritative, consistently measured figure for AI's share of enterprise IT budgets in 2024; vendor and survey estimates vary widely (IDC-style AI spending totals imply low single digits of global IT spend, while some CIO surveys report higher shares), so the claim cannot be cleanly judged.
Partially correctJobs & EconomySaid Dec 11, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“Our 2024 [year end] target is 5,200, which is 20x 2025 EPS of $260 — one of the most bullish S&P 500 targets on Wall Street.”
Verdict: The S&P 500 closed 2024 at 5,881.63, about 13% above Lee's 5,200 target. He was among the most bullish strategists and directionally right about a second straight 20%+ year, but the level itself was far too low — he raised the target to ~5,800 by June 2024.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Dec 6, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“The market for data center AI accelerators will grow to approximately $400 billion in 2027 — nearly triple AMD's own $150 billion estimate from a year earlier.”
Verdict: Resolves against 2027 data center AI accelerator market size. Su has since revised the number upward repeatedly (to $500 billion for 2028 in October 2024).
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Dec 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2048
“AI should be hugely deflationary over twenty five years. Capital should be scarce for a while, current measures of GDP and the economy will be less relevant but goods and services should be in great abundance.”
Verdict: Long-horizon macro claim; resolves against sustained price-level trends through 2048. Khosla has repeated the 'hugely deflationary' thesis in 2024-2026 interviews.
PendingSafety & RiskSaid Nov 28, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“The danger arrives at "the point at which the computer can start to make its own decisions to do things" — when, say, such a system discovers access to weapons and we can't be certain the system will tell us the truth. Two years ago that moment was expected to be 20 years off; today some experts think it's only two to four years away.”
Verdict: Schmidt relayed the two-to-four-year estimate as the view of 'some experts'; at the same event he separately warned that company guardrails 'aren't enough' against capabilities that could endanger humanity in five to 10 years.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid Nov 22, 2023Deadline Nov 22, 2024
“Inflection is shifting its training focus to its next model, which will reach 10x the scale of its predecessor within six months, with another model 10x bigger than that in a further six months (100x bigger than now).”
Verdict: Inflection never trained a model 10x — let alone 100x — the scale of Inflection-2. In March 2024 Microsoft hired Suleyman and most of Inflection's staff, and the company pivoted away from frontier model training entirely.
IncorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Nov 22, 2023Deadline Nov 22, 2025
“Building on the success of the supercomputing centres in Edinburgh and Bristol, I will invest a further £500 million over the next two years to fund further innovation centres to help make us an AI powerhouse.”
Verdict: In August 2024 the incoming Labour government shelved the £500 million of additional AI Research Resource compute funding (along with £800 million for the Edinburgh exascale machine) as 'unfunded', so the promised money was never invested within the two-year window; only the pre-existing £300 million AIRR allocation continued.
CorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Nov 17, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“Okay, there's all these GPUs going into production. NVIDIA is going to sell well over 3 million total GPUs next year, over a million H100s this year alone. There's a lot of GPU capacity coming online.”
Verdict: Nvidia's data-center GPU shipments were already ~3.76 million units in 2023 per TechInsights and rose further in 2024 (toward roughly 4 million) as data-center revenue more than doubled, with Omdia estimating Microsoft alone bought ~485,000 Hopper chips in 2024 and Meta, ByteDance and Tencent 224,000–230,000 each. Shipments comfortably exceeded the 'well over 3 million' bar.
CorrectSafety & RiskSaid Nov 16, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“There will be no UK law on AI in the short term, because heavy-handed regulation could curb industry growth — 'there is always a risk of premature regulation.'”
Verdict: No AI statute was enacted in the UK in 2024; the government stuck to its non-statutory, regulator-led 'pro-innovation' approach, and successive plans for a frontier AI bill were repeatedly postponed.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Nov 13, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“Heading into 2024 we believe the tech sector is set up for an acceleration of spending around cloud and AI spending that we believe is being significantly underestimated by the Street. While IT budgets are expected to be up modestly in 2024, we believe cloud and AI driven spending will be up 20%-25% over the next year with use cases now exploding across the enterprise and consumer landscape.”
Verdict: Public cloud end-user spending grew roughly 20% in 2024 on Gartner's tracking, and AI infrastructure/model spending grew far faster, putting combined cloud-and-AI spending growth in or above his 20%-25% range.
IncorrectJobs & EconomySaid Nov 9, 2023Deadline Nov 9, 2026
“In the good old days it took 500 artists five years to make a world-class animated movie. I think it won't take 10 percent of that. Literally, I don't think it will take 10 percent of that three years out from now.”
Verdict: The 2026 Visual Effects & Animation World Atlas (140,000+ professionals at 2,900 companies, 1.1M datapoints) directly tested this claim and concluded a film that needed 500 artists in 2023 cannot yet be made by 50; author Joseph Bell found net industry growth of 2.7% over 12 months, AI-specific roles at just 0.1% of studio roles, and growth in artist categories (environment/DMP +9.3%, FX/sim +6.1%). AI-native features did appear at radically smaller scale (Critterz, ~$30M in nine months; Fable's 'Gods Don't Give Gifts', a 30-person team over nine months), but none has established itself as a 'world-class' studio-tier animated feature, and mainstream animated releases still carry full-size crews.
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid Nov 7, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Intel will ship at least 100 million NPU-enabled 'AI PCs' with on-device AI acceleration by the end of 2025.”
Verdict: Intel came close but fell just short on its own accounting: the company confirmed in late 2025 that by the end of the year it had shipped 'nearly 100 million' AI PC processors, rather than the 100 million-plus it had repeatedly guided to.
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid Nov 2, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“By 2025, China will have initially established an innovation system for humanoid robots, achieved breakthroughs in several key technologies, ensured the safe and effective supply of core components, and humanoid robot products will reach advanced international levels and realise mass production.”
Verdict: 2025 was widely billed in China as the first year of humanoid 'mass production' — Unitree, UBTech and AgiBot each shipped hundreds to low thousands of units and domestic actuator/reducer supply improved — but volumes remained small and deployments largely pilot-scale rather than true mass production.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Nov 2, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“By 2027, China's humanoid robot technology innovation capability will be significantly enhanced, with a safe and reliable industrial and supply chain system, an internationally competitive industrial ecosystem, and overall strength reaching world-advanced levels, with humanoid robots becoming an important new engine of economic growth.”
Partially correctSafety & RiskSaid Nov 2, 2023Deadline Nov 2, 2024
“The Republic of Korea has agreed to co-host a mini virtual summit on AI in the next 6 months, with France to then host the next in-person Summit a year from now.”
Verdict: Korea co-hosted the AI Seoul Summit with a virtual leaders' session on 21–22 May 2024, a few weeks past the six-month mark; France's in-person AI Action Summit, however, did not take place until 10–11 February 2025, roughly 15 months later rather than 'a year from now'.
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Nov 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“Version 12 (end-to-end neural nets) will far exceed human safety even when unsupervised.”
Verdict: FSD v12 shipped in 2024 but remained a supervised Level 2 system that never operated unsupervised and did not demonstrate far-better-than-human safety. Musk went on to make the same claim about v14 and v15.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Nov 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2036
“My median estimate for transformative AI — operationalized as AI being able to automate 99% of currently fully remote jobs — is about 13 years away, i.e. roughly 2036.”
Verdict: Target year 2036 is still far off; Cotra has since shortened her timelines substantially (by 2025 she reported roughly 25% by 2028 and 50% by 2031).
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Oct 31, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“On when AI will be capable of building a Dyson sphere — which I understand to mean about a billion times more energy than all the sunlight incident on Earth: 'maybe I'd say like 15% chance by 2030.'”
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Oct 31, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2040
“On when AI will be capable of building a Dyson sphere — which I understand to mean about a billion times more energy than all the sunlight incident on Earth: 'like 40% chance by 2040.'”
Verdict: Target date is still in the future; Christiano noted these were 'cash numbers from six months ago or nine months ago' that he hadn't revisited.
CorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 31, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“We now expect Data Center GPU revenue to be approximately $400 million in the fourth quarter [of 2023] and exceed $2 billion in 2024 as revenue ramps throughout the year. This growth would make MI300 the fastest product to ramp to $1 billion in sales in AMD history.”
Verdict: AMD beat the guidance by a wide margin: Su reported 'more than $5 billion of AMD Instinct accelerator revenue' for 2024, and MI300 became AMD's fastest product ramp ever, passing $1 billion in sales in under two quarters.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Oct 26, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“I think there's a 50% chance that we have AGI by 2028. Now, it's just a 50% chance. I'm sure what's going to happen is we're going to get to 2029 and someone's going to say, 'Shane, you were wrong.' Come on, I said 50% chance.”
Verdict: Deadline is end of 2028. Legg has restated this 50%-by-2028 estimate consistently since first making it in the 2000s, and as of 2026 he still frames 'minimal AGI' as roughly two years out.
CorrectSafety & RiskSaid Oct 26, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2023
“We will establish the world's first AI Safety Institute right here in the UK. It will advance the world's knowledge of AI safety, and it will carefully examine, evaluate and test new types of AI so that we understand what each new model is capable of.”
Verdict: The UK AI Safety Institute was launched on 2 November 2023 at the Bletchley Park summit, evolving out of the Frontier AI Taskforce, and began conducting model evaluations (it was renamed the AI Security Institute in February 2025).
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid Oct 21, 2023Deadline Aug 7, 2025
“Many good people at OpenAI believe GPT-5 will be a big leap, but I believe current generative AI has reached a ceiling — GPT-5 will not be significantly better than GPT-4.”
Verdict: GPT-5 launched on 7 August 2025 to a widely criticised reception and was broadly judged an incremental rather than transformative step, which commentators read as vindicating Gates. But it did post large benchmark gains over GPT-4 — driven by the reasoning/chain-of-thought advances Gates's 'plateau' framing did not anticipate — so the call was directionally right rather than fully right.
IncorrectAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Oct 18, 2023Deadline Oct 18, 2026
“The dangers of superintelligence are even worse than I projected five years ago: it'll only be 2-3 years "before we get outsmarted," and "we should expect the machines to take control."”
Verdict: The outer edge of Tegmark's 2–3 year window (October 2026) has passed with no superintelligence and, emphatically, no machine takeover: frontier systems as of late 2026 (Gemini 3.x, GPT-5.x, Claude Opus 4.x, Grok 4.x) remain narrow-but-powerful assistants under human operation, and no lab or government has declared humanity 'outsmarted' in the general sense Tegmark described. The 'we should expect the machines to take control' element clearly did not occur by the deadline.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Oct 8, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“I think in five years' time it [AI] may well be able to reason better than us.”
Verdict: China's compute was 197 EFLOPS when the plan was issued; MIIT announced in January 2026 that intelligent computing power alone exceeded 1,590 EFLOPS across 42 ten-thousand-card clusters, so both the 300 EFLOPS total and the 35% intelligent-compute share were passed well before end-2025.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Oct 8, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“By 2025, China's total data storage capacity will exceed 1,800 exabytes, with advanced storage accounting for more than 30% of capacity.”
Verdict: China's storage capacity was 1,200 EB at end-2023 and 1,680 EB as of June 2025 per the 2025 China Storage Development Report, so the 1,800 EB goal was within reach, but no official year-end 2025 figure has been published yet.
PendingSafety & RiskSaid Oct 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2033
“A financial crisis caused by artificial intelligence is 'nearly unavoidable' within a decade without further regulation — it's a hard financial stability issue because many institutions might be relying on the same underlying base model or data aggregator.”
Verdict: Deadline is roughly 2033; Gensler left the SEC in January 2025, and as of early 2026 no financial crisis has been attributed to shared AI models or data aggregators.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Sep 26, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“It's likely an artificial general intelligence could be shown to the public around the year 2030: "We are six, seven, eight years out from something really big and important being publicly visible."”
Verdict: Said at the event announcing Keen Technologies' partnership with Richard Sutton; Carmack added that 'nobody has line of sight on a solution to this today' but that not much fundamentally new is required.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid Sep 7, 2023Deadline Mar 31, 2024
“It is a solvable problem. I would bet you any sum of money you can get the hallucinations right down into the line of human-expert rate within months. So I'm not really that worried about that problem overall. (Gary Marcus publicly offered $100,000 on the other side; Hoffman never took the bet.)”
Verdict: Hallucination rates did not fall to human-expert levels within months; by mid-2024 leading models still hallucinated at rates far above domain experts, and hallucination remained a headline reliability problem well beyond early 2024. Hoffman also declined Marcus's $100,000 offer to formalize the bet.
IncorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Sep 6, 2023Deadline Mar 31, 2025
“It is not the shortage of AI chips, it is the shortage of our CoWoS capacity. Currently, we cannot fulfill 100% of our customers' needs, but we try to support about 80%. We think this is a temporary phenomenon. After our expansion of [advanced chip packaging capacity], it should be alleviated in one and a half years.”
Verdict: The CoWoS bottleneck was not alleviated within 18 months: Liu's successor C.C. Wei publicly revised the timeline in July 2024 to 'I hope in 2025 or 2026 we can reach the balance,' and industry reporting in mid-2026 still put CoWoS supply roughly 10–20% short of demand despite capacity doubling in both 2024 and 2025.
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid Aug 28, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2023
“The sleeping giant, Google has woken up, and they are iterating on a pace that will smash GPT-4 total pre-training FLOPS by 5x before the end of the year.”
Verdict: Google did unveil Gemini Ultra on December 6, 2023, and it did exceed GPT-4's training compute — but Epoch AI estimates Gemini Ultra at ~5e25 FLOP versus ~2e25 FLOP for GPT-4, roughly 2.5x rather than 5x (and the model was not generally available until 2024).
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid Aug 28, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“The path is clear to 20x [GPT-4's total pre-training FLOPS] by the end of next year given their current infrastructure buildout.”
Verdict: 20x GPT-4 (~2e25 FLOP) implies a ~4e26 FLOP training run by end-2024; Epoch AI's dataset records the first model above 1e26 FLOP as xAI's Grok-3 in February 2025, and no Google model publicly known or estimated to be near that scale was trained by the end of 2024.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid Aug 28, 2023Deadline Aug 28, 2025
“Since we need to break through barriers and catalyze change with urgency, we've set a big goal for Replicator: to field attritable autonomous systems at a scale of multiple thousands, in multiple domains, within the next 18 to 24 months.”
Verdict: The Replicator goal was not met by the August 2025 deadline: a September 2025 Congressional Research Service report noted DoD had fielded only 'hundreds' rather than thousands of uncrewed systems by that time, and exact numbers remain classified. DoD leaders characterized Replicator as a 'successful transition' of capability, and the portfolio was later moved to U.S. Special Operations Command.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid Aug 26, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“I believe you will see a chatGPT level language model (on at least some metrics) on a mobile phone next year.”
Verdict: By mid-2024 phone-sized models met the bar on the stated 'at least some metrics' basis: Microsoft's Phi-3-mini (3.8B, April 2024) was demonstrated running locally on an iPhone and scored at or above GPT-3.5/ChatGPT level on benchmarks such as MMLU, followed by Llama 3.2 1B/3B and Gemma 2 on-device releases before the end of 2024.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid Aug 26, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“I believe you will see a chatGPT level language model (on at least some metrics) on a mobile phone next year and GPT-4 level year after. These models are barely optimised, you would be very surprised.”
Verdict: By the end of 2025 small models that run on flagship phones — e.g. Qwen3-4B-2507, Gemma 3n and Phi-4-mini — matched or exceeded the original March-2023 GPT-4 on many standard benchmarks (reasoning, math, coding), though they still lag GPT-4 in breadth of world knowledge, so the claim holds on the 'at least some metrics' standard Mostaque set in the same tweet.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid Aug 23, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“We have a customer center where we're doing on-site pilots this year, and then starting field pilots next year. Those will likely start in Q2... Pilots next year, commercial launch at the end of next year. 2025, we hope to be in commercial availability.”
Verdict: Apollo was not commercially available in 2025; it remained in customer pilots (Mercedes-Benz, GXO) with no published price. Apptronik unveiled Apollo 2 only on June 30, 2026, and Cardenas has since pointed to 2027 for volume orders.
CorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Aug 9, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2023
“Production is increasing rapidly. Nvidia is going to ship over a million H100s plus A100s this year.”
Verdict: Omdia estimated Nvidia shipped nearly half a million H100 and A100 GPUs in Q3 2023 alone and expected the figure to exceed half a million again in Q4; TechInsights put Nvidia's total 2023 data center GPU shipments at about 3.76 million units, comfortably above the one-million H100+A100 threshold.
CorrectSafety & RiskSaid Aug 9, 2023Deadline Aug 31, 2025
“The AI Cyber Challenge (AIxCC) is a two-year competition aimed at driving innovation at the nexus of AI and cybersecurity to create a new generation of cybersecurity tools — AI systems that can automatically secure the critical software code that underpins everything from financial systems to public utilities — with the semifinal competition at DEF CON in 2024 and the final competition at DEF CON in 2025.”
Verdict: AIxCC ran on schedule: semifinals at DEF CON 32 (August 2024) and finals at DEF CON 33, with winners announced August 8, 2025 (Team Atlanta, $4M). In the scored final round the autonomous cyber reasoning systems found the large majority of injected vulnerabilities across 54 million lines of code (77% by the initial tally, later revised by DARPA to 86%), patched most of what they found, and uncovered 18 real zero-days; four of the seven systems were released open source.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid Aug 8, 2023Deadline Aug 31, 2026
“In terms of someone looks at the model and even if you talk to it for an hour or so, it's basically like a generally well educated human — that could be not very far away at all. I think that could happen in two or three years.”
Verdict: In the February 13, 2026 follow-up interview, Dwarkesh Patel quoted the prediction back to Amodei and told him 'You were right,' while adding that he had expected such a system to also automate large parts of white-collar work. Commentators agree the spirit held — an hour-long conversation with a 2026 frontier model matches or exceeds a well-educated generalist — though models remain trivially identifiable as AI in a literal imitation test.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Aug 7, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2023
“For full year 2023: We are raising our revenue guidance to in excess of $2.212 billion. We are raising our adjusted income from operations guidance to in excess of $576 million. We continue to expect GAAP net income in each quarter.”
Verdict: FY2023 revenue came in at $2.225 billion, above the 'in excess of $2.212 billion' guidance, and Palantir posted GAAP net income in every quarter of 2023.
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Aug 4, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“"We're not done. There'll be more this year… Last year, we were operating tens of autonomous vehicles… Next year, there'll be thousands. And then it'll continue at least 10 times growth every year for the foreseeable future."”
Verdict: Instead of 10x growth, Cruise's fleet went to zero: California suspended its permits in October 2023 after a pedestrian-dragging incident, Cruise grounded its robotaxis nationwide, Vogt resigned in November 2023, and GM ended funding of the robotaxi business in December 2024.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Aug 1, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“AI investment could approach $100 billion in the U.S. and $200 billion globally by 2025; over the longer term, AI-related investment could peak as high as 2.5-4% of GDP in the U.S. and 1.5-2.5% in other AI-leading economies.”
Verdict: The $200bn global threshold was comfortably reached by 2025 — capital spending by the largest US hyperscalers alone ran to several hundred billion dollars in 2025 — so the directional call was right, though it proved conservative on magnitude; the longer-run share-of-GDP leg remains open.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Aug 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“There will be no [human] programmers in five years.”
Verdict: Five-year horizon from August 2023 resolves at the end of 2028; as of 2026 software development employment remains substantial, so the claim is heavily on track to fail but is not yet due.
Verdict: Deadline is mid-2027. Context: OpenAI disbanded the Superalignment team in May 2024 after Leike and Ilya Sutskever resigned, with Leike saying safety had taken a back seat; the 20%-compute commitment was reportedly not honored.
“A straightforward extrapolation of today's systems to those we expect to see in two to three years suggests a substantial risk that AI systems will be able to fill in all the missing pieces [of bioweapons production], enabling many more actors to carry out large-scale biological attacks.”
Verdict: Directionally borne out on capability trend but not on the strongest version of the claim: by May 2025 Anthropic activated ASL-3 safeguards for Claude Opus 4 because it could not rule out CBRN-3 (meaningful uplift to novices in bioweapons acquisition planning, measured at ~2.5x), and OpenAI has treated recent agentic models as 'High' biological capability. However, as of the mid-2026 deadline no frontier model has been publicly assessed as able to fill in 'all the missing pieces' (state-level/CBRN-4 thresholds remain uncrossed), and no AI-enabled large-scale biological attack has occurred — partly consistent with Amodei's own conditional that guardrails and mitigations be put in place.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jul 20, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Today, server AI processor demand, which we define as CPUs, GPUs and AI accelerators that are performing training and inference functions, accounts for approximately 6% of TSMC's total revenue. We forecast this to grow at close to 50% CAGR in the next 5 years and increase to low-teens percent of our revenue in 2027.”
Verdict: Resolution keys on the 2027 revenue-share figure; TSMC has since run well ahead of this path, with AI accelerator revenue already at a high-teens percent of total revenue in 2025.
IncorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jul 20, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“While we are working to improve the situation, including sending experienced technicians from Taiwan to train the local skilled workers for a short period of time, we expect the production schedule of N4 process technology [at TSMC's first Arizona fab] to be pushed out to 2025.”
Verdict: TSMC pulled the schedule back in: its Arizona Fab 21 entered high-volume production on N4 in Q4 2024 — which TSMC's own 2024 annual report described as 'earlier than scheduled' — rather than slipping to 2025 as Liu forecast.
Verdict: Two years on, India's IT and outsourcing sector had not shed its junior outsourced programmers: industry revenue and total headcount both continued to grow through FY2025, with hiring slowing rather than the workforce disappearing.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid Jul 14, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“A Modern Turing Test for 'artificial capable intelligence': tell an AI to 'Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment' — researching products, interfacing with manufacturers and logistics, negotiating contracts, running marketing — tying together complex real-world goals with minimal oversight. 'Something like this could be as little as two years away. Many of the ingredients are in place.'”
Verdict: No AI system has autonomously turned $100,000 into $1 million with minimal human oversight; the most prominent real-world test of an AI running a business — Anthropic's Project Vend, in which Claude managed a small shop/vending business — lost money in both phases through 2025. Suleyman himself, in a December 2025 interview, was framed as expecting agents to only begin passing the Modern Turing Test roughly two years later (~2027), confirming the two-year horizon set in 2023 was missed.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jul 14, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“By 2030, therefore, we believe personal autonomous travel could add a net $26 trillion to global GDP per year.”
Verdict: Narrowed from a bundled entry to the single dated $26 trillion figure; robotaxi services remain at pilot scale in a handful of cities, so the 2030 outcome is not yet judgeable.
PendingSafety & RiskSaid Jul 10, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2100
“In the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament, the median superforecaster put the probability of AI-caused human extinction by 2100 at 0.38%, while the median AI domain expert put it at 3% — and the two groups did not converge after months of debate and the exchange of arguments.”
Verdict: Forecasts were elicited from 169 superforecasters and domain experts during the tournament run from June to October 2022, before ChatGPT's release; the target horizon is 2100, so the forecast cannot be resolved for decades.
Partially correctJobs & EconomySaid Jul 3, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2023
“The S&P 500 will reach 4,825 by the end of 2023 — a new all-time high above the previous record of 4,821, and well above the Street's average year-end forecast of 4,227.”
Verdict: The S&P 500 closed 2023 at 4,769.83 — about 1.2% short of Lee's 4,825 target and just below the January 2022 record close of 4,796.56, so the bullish call was nearly right on level but the predicted new all-time high did not occur until January 2024.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Jun 30, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“We believe this is a $4 trillion market cap by 2025. At the end of the day, Apple continues to play chess while others are playing checkers.”
Verdict: Apple touched a $4 trillion market capitalization for the first time on October 28, 2025, inside his 'by 2025' horizon.
IncorrectSafety & RiskSaid Jun 26, 2023Deadline Nov 5, 2024
“The 2024 elections are going to be a mess because social media is not protecting us from false generated AI. They're working on it, but they haven't solved it yet.”
Verdict: Platforms did cut trust-and-safety staff as Schmidt warned, but the 2024 US election was not the AI-driven 'mess' he predicted: retrospectives from the Harvard Ash Center and the Knight First Amendment Institute concluded the feared AI misinformation wave had marginal effect on the vote, with non-AI fakes far more prevalent.
PendingSafety & RiskSaid Jun 16, 2023
“AI is "pretty inherently dangerous" — the odds of a massive AI-related disaster, the "probability of doom," are somewhere between 5% and 50%.”
Verdict: Standing probability estimate with no end date; recorded as a p(doom) datapoint rather than a dated forecast.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jun 13, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“The data center AI accelerator market will grow approximately 50% annually over the next few years, from something like $30 billion in 2023 to more than $150 billion in 2027.”
Verdict: AMD itself superseded this estimate within months, raising the 2027 data center AI accelerator TAM to ~$400 billion in December 2023 and later to $500 billion by 2028 and $1 trillion by 2030; the 2027 outcome cannot be judged until the year closes.
CorrectSafety & RiskSaid Jun 7, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2023
“The UK will host the first major global summit on AI safety this autumn — bringing together key countries, leading tech companies and researchers to agree safety measures to evaluate and monitor the most significant risks from AI.”
Verdict: The AI Safety Summit was held at Bletchley Park on 1–2 November 2023 with roughly 150 representatives from governments, frontier AI labs, academia and civil society; 28 countries plus the EU signed the Bletchley Declaration.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Jun 2, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“There is a "giant growth opportunity" in Cruise: the unit could generate $50 billion a year in annual revenue by 2030.”
Verdict: Target year is 2030, but GM wound down Cruise's robotaxi development in December 2024 and folded the unit into GM, so the revenue target looks unreachable.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Jun 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2043
“My current estimate places a 95% confidence interval for the time horizon of superhuman intelligence at 5 to 20 years.”
Verdict: Russell said ChatGPT's advances exceeded his expectations and shortened his timeline, while maintaining that further scaling alone is unlikely to produce AGI.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid May 22, 2023Deadline May 22, 2033
“It's conceivable that within the next ten years, AI systems will exceed expert skill level in most domains.”
Verdict: A year later the May-2023 models were still in heavy production use: GPT-4/GPT-4 Turbo still powered ChatGPT and most enterprise deployments in May 2024, and Stable Diffusion 1.5/SDXL remained the workhorses of the open-source image ecosystem.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid May 10, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“Microsoft has agreed to purchase electricity from Helion's first fusion power plant, scheduled for deployment in 2028: the plant "is expected to be online by 2028 and will target power generation of 50 MW or greater after a 1-year ramp up period."”
Verdict: Site work on Orion in Chelan County, Washington began in July 2025 and Helion reaffirmed the 2028 date, but in 2026 the company removed the "producing electricity by 2028" language from its website in favor of "begin initial operations in 2028," and a Helion executive conceded at the 2026 FusionX conference that 50 MW full operation will not happen in 2028 (Axios Pro, 8 Sept 2026). Formally unresolved until the end of 2028.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid May 8, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2023
“We were profitable again this quarter... And we now anticipate that we will remain profitable each quarter through the end of the year. The depth of engagement with and demand for our new Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) is without precedent.”
Verdict: Palantir reported GAAP net income in every remaining quarter of 2023 — $28M in Q2, $72M in Q3 and $93M in Q4 — its fifth consecutive profitable quarter by year-end.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid May 3, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2043
“I now predict 5 to 20 years [until digital intelligence overtakes us] but without much confidence. We live in very uncertain times. It's possible that I am totally wrong about digital intelligence overtaking us. Nobody really knows which is why we should worry now.”
— Geoffrey Hinton, Turing Award and Nobel laureate; 'Godfather of AI'; professor emeritus, University of Toronto (former Google VP) (Researcher). X post by @geoffreyhinton, May 3, 2023
Verdict: Posted days after Hinton left Google; it marked a sharp shortening of his previous 30–50 year estimate for machines becoming smarter than humans.
PendingHealthcareSaid May 3, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“Within 5 to 6 years, the FDA will approve a primary care app qualified to practice medicine like your primary care physician.”
Verdict: Resolves if the FDA authorizes a software product cleared to deliver general primary care diagnosis and treatment autonomously; to date FDA authorizations of autonomous AI remain single-condition devices rather than general practice.
PendingSafety & RiskSaid May 2023Deadline May 1, 2053
“There is a 10–20% chance that AI leads to human extinction within the next three decades.”
Verdict: A probabilistic risk estimate; tracked for the record.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid May 1, 2023Deadline May 1, 2028
“Hiring in back-office functions such as human resources will be suspended or slowed; of the roughly 26,000 non-customer-facing roles at IBM, "I could easily see 30% of that getting replaced by AI and automation over a five-year period" — roughly 7,800 jobs.”
Verdict: The five-year window runs to May 2028. IBM has since said AI agents took over work previously done by a few hundred HR staff while the company hired in engineering and sales, so the 30%/7,800 figure is not yet settled.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid May 2023Deadline May 31, 2025
“Over the next 12 months in our lab we'll get the robot working, and then over the next 24 months we'll ideally be able to step in the first footprints of what a pilot would look like, an early commercial opportunity. That would probably be very low volumes, just to set expectations. And we would want the robot to demonstrate that it's actually useful and doing real work.”
Verdict: Figure met the modest bar it set: it announced a commercial agreement with BMW in January 2024 and had Figure 02 units performing low-volume production tasks at BMW's Spartanburg plant from August 2024, well inside the 24-month window — though the scale and usefulness of that deployment were later disputed in press reports.
CorrectSafety & RiskSaid Apr 30, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2023
“We will have the political agreement this year [on the AI Act] — the EU is likely to reach a political agreement that paves the way for the world's first major artificial intelligence law.”
Verdict: The European Parliament and Council reached political agreement on the AI Act on 8 December 2023, inside the predicted calendar year.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Apr 30, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“Employers anticipate 69 million new jobs will be created and 83 million eliminated over the next five years — a net decrease of 14 million jobs, or 2% of current employment — by 2027.”
Verdict: Target year 2027 is still in the future; the forecast covers a 673-million-employee dataset of surveyed employers rather than the whole global labour force.
PendingSafety & RiskSaid Apr 27, 2023
“Probability that humans build AI systems that take over: 15%. (Including anything that happens before human cognitive labor is basically obsolete.)”
Verdict: One of a set of subjective probability estimates Christiano published in 2023; no AI takeover has occurred, so the estimate remains open.
PendingSafety & RiskSaid Apr 27, 2023
“Probability that most humans die within 10 years of building powerful AI (powerful enough to make human labor obsolete): 20% — 11% because of an AI takeover, and 9% for non-takeover reasons (e.g. more destructive war or terrorism).”
Verdict: Deadline is conditional (10 years after 'powerful AI' capable of making human labor obsolete), which has not yet been built, so the forecast is not yet resolvable.
PendingSafety & RiskSaid Apr 27, 2023
“Probability that humanity has somehow irreversibly messed up our future within 10 years of building powerful AI: 46%.”
Verdict: One of a set of credences Christiano published in April 2023; it is conditional on a second-generation AI takeover occurring at an unspecified future date, so it cannot resolve on any fixed calendar deadline.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Apr 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“ARK's price target for Tesla is $2,000 per share in 2027, with bear and bull cases valued between ~$1,400 and $2,500 per share; Tesla's prospective robotaxi business line is a key driver, contributing 67% of expected enterprise value and 64% of expected EBITDA in 2027.”
Verdict: Resolves at the end of 2027; ARK has since rolled the model forward to a $2,600 2029 target, and Tesla has yet to operate a material driverless ride-hail business.
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Apr 13, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Cruise is on track — if not ahead of — its goal to reach $1 billion in revenue by 2025, as it scales up new markets and vehicle volume.”
Verdict: Cruise never came close to $1 billion in revenue: it was losing hundreds of millions per quarter, had its California permits suspended in late 2023, Vogt resigned that November, and GM ended funding for the robotaxi business in December 2024, so 2025 revenue was effectively zero.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Apr 10, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2100
“In this century probably, we will be building this hugely consequential thing which is the first general intelligence that will be smarter than humans.”
Verdict: Bostrom frames machine superintelligence as probable within this century and as 'maybe the most important thing that our species will ever have done.'
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid Apr 9, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“AGI really could disrupt the world. But GPT-5 is not going to do any of that; it's not going to be smart enough to revolutionize fusion; it's not going to be smart enough to revolutionize nanotech, and starships most definitely aren't going to be here in 2024.”
Verdict: GPT-5 did not even ship until August 2025, and through the end of 2024 there was no AI-driven revolution in fusion or nanotech and no interstellar starships. Marcus's deflationary call was borne out.
Partially correctJobs & EconomySaid Apr 4, 2023Deadline Jan 31, 2026
“"By the end of Fiscal Year 2026, Walmart believes roughly 65% of stores will be serviced by automation."”
Verdict: On the Q4 FY2026 earnings call (Feb. 19, 2026), CFO John David Rainey said approximately 60% of U.S. stores were receiving some freight from automated distribution centers — short of the 65% goal, and on a looser 'some freight' measure than 'serviced by automation.'
Partially correctJobs & EconomySaid Apr 4, 2023Deadline Jan 31, 2026
“"By the end of Fiscal Year 2026... approximately 55% of the fulfillment center volume will move through automated facilities, and unit cost averages could improve by approximately 20%."”
Verdict: At the end of FY2026, Walmart reported roughly 50% of U.S. e-commerce fulfillment center volume was automated — short of the 55% target — though the company says automation is delivering better unit productivity and lower cost to serve; the 20% unit-cost improvement has not been separately disclosed.
Verdict: By April 2025 no feature film existed that audiences could not tell was AI-generated. The first AI-generated features to reach release — such as the Turkish documentary Post Truth (July 2025) and later festival entries like Hell Grind and Dreams of Violets (2026) — arrived after the deadline and were all overtly, recognizably AI-made rather than indistinguishable from conventional filmmaking.
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Apr 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“ARK has grown increasingly confident that Tesla will launch a robotaxi service soon. Our updated Monte Carlo model includes a range of launch dates, with late 2024 as the weighted average of all cases.”
Verdict: Tesla launched no robotaxi service in 2024; its first limited robotaxi pilot began in Austin in June 2025 with in-car safety monitors, missing ARK's weighted-average late-2024 launch assumption by more than half a year.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Mar 31, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“That's not to say that artificial intelligence won't have huge economic impacts. But history suggests that they won't come quickly. ChatGPT and whatever follows are probably an economic story for the 2030s, not for the next few years.”
Verdict: Resolves at the end of the 2020s: the test is whether large measured macroeconomic effects of generative AI arrive before 2030 or only in the 2030s.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Mar 29, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“We could be dealing with 'godlike-level AI' within five years — and, perhaps most scarily, we won't see it until it's too late.”
Verdict: The 2028 US presidential election has not yet taken place; AI-generated campaign content has proliferated since 2023, but campaigns to date remain run by human candidates and staff.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Mar 21, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“By 2030, auto manufacturers will build 300 factories to make 200 million electric vehicles, and battery makers are building 100 more megafactories.”
Verdict: Zipline hit 1 million cumulative deliveries in April 2024 and 2 million in January 2026, implying roughly 500,000–600,000 delivery flights during 2025 (the company described it as one delivery every ~60 seconds). That exceeds the annual flight count of most small and mid-size carriers, but is far below the ~1–2 million annual departures of major US airlines, and Zipline never published a direct comparison.
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Mar 15, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2023
“Zipline completed more deliveries in 2022 than in all previous years combined, and is planning to complete about 1 million deliveries by the end of 2023.”
Verdict: Zipline announced its one-millionth commercial delivery on April 19, 2024 — roughly four months after the end-of-2023 target it had set.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Mar 15, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2023
“Zipline plans to conduct high-volume flight tests this year [2023] involving more than 10,000 test flights using about 100 P2 aircraft, with first customer deployment to follow.”
Verdict: Zipline has never published a 2023-specific P2 test-flight count; by November 2025 it cited more than 150,000 physical P2 test flights in the US, but the first commercial P2 delivery did not occur until January 2025, well after the 'shortly after' timeline implied in 2023.
IncorrectSafety & RiskSaid Mar 9, 2023Deadline Nov 5, 2024
“2024 will be the last human election — from here on, humans will be figureheads and whoever has the greatest compute and the best AI will win.”
Verdict: The 2024 US election was contested and decided by human candidates and campaigns; subsequent research found AI-generated content played a marginal role and that compute advantage did not determine outcomes, and conventional human elections have continued since.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Feb 23, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“By 2030, the U.S. will have at least two new large-scale clusters of leading-edge logic fabs. Each cluster will include a robust supplier ecosystem, R&D facilities to continuously innovate new process technologies, and specialized infrastructure — and each will employ thousands of workers.”
Verdict: Deadline is end of 2030; Intel (Arizona/Ohio), TSMC (Arizona) and Samsung (Texas) leading-edge projects are the candidate clusters, several with announced delays.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Feb 21, 2023Deadline Jan 1, 2028
“Some big macroeconomic indicator (eg GDP, unemployment, inflation) shows a visible bump or dip as a direct effect of AI ("direct effect" excludes eg an AI-designed pandemic killing people): 15%.”
Verdict: Part of Alexander's five-year prediction set, which he specifies resolves as of 1/1/2028; he framed it alongside his 'Solow's Law' expectation that AI would not show up as a visible break from trend in the big macroeconomic statistics.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jan 31, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“AI training cost declines continued at an annual rate of 70%, the cost to train a large language model to GPT-3 level performance collapsing from $4.6 million in 2020 to $450,000 in 2022. We expect cost declines to continue at a 70% rate through 2030.”
Verdict: Runs through 2030; ARK itself raised the assumed decline rate to ~75%/year in Big Ideas 2024.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jan 31, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“AI should increase the productivity of knowledge workers more than 4-fold by 2030. At 100% adoption, AI could increase global labor productivity ~$200 trillion, dwarfing the ~$32 trillion in total knowledge worker salaries.”
Verdict: Resolves at the end of 2030; measured productivity gains to date are far below a 4x trajectory.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jan 31, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Based on a 70% annualized drop in training costs and feedback loops, AI coding assistants like Copilot could increase the output of software engineers ~10-fold by 2030.”
Verdict: Resolves at the end of 2030; ARK's own 2023 report put the then-current coding-assistant gain at roughly 2x.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jan 31, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“The market value of disruptive innovation platforms could scale 40% at an annual rate during this business cycle, from $13 trillion today to $200 trillion by 2030 — catalyzed by breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, disruptive innovation could account for the majority of global equity market capitalization.”
Verdict: Resolves at the end of 2030; ARK restated the same idea in Big Ideas 2024 as ~$19 trillion growing to roughly $220 trillion by 2030.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Jan 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“ARK's research suggests that global autonomous ride-hail platforms will create $14 trillion in enterprise value, based on $4 trillion in revenue during the next five years.”
Verdict: The five-year horizon runs to the end of 2027. Autonomous ride-hail revenue remains orders of magnitude below the $4 trillion implied by the forecast, but the deadline has not yet passed.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Jan 31, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Based on our updated assumptions on pricing, ARK estimates that autonomous logistics revenue could scale from nearly zero today to $1-2 trillion by 2030.”
Verdict: Autonomous delivery revenue remains negligible as of early 2026; ARK itself cut the figure to ~$900 billion by 2030 in Big Ideas 2024, so the 2030 outcome is still open.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Jan 22, 2023
“AGI will not happen in your lifetime. Or in the lifetime of your children. Or in the lifetime of your children's children.”
Verdict: No explicit date, but the claim clearly implies AGI is at least three generations (roughly a century) away; in the same dialogue Booch put the timeline at 'a few generations' against Marcus's 'few decades.'
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jan 2023Deadline Jan 30, 2029
“No AI will be able to get A's on 5 out of 6 of my [labor economics] exams by January of 2029. (By January 30, 2029, an AI selected by Matthew Barnett takes Caplan's six most recent midterms, graded on his students' scale, with an A- counting as an A; $500 at stake.)”
Verdict: Still open until January 30, 2029; Caplan publicly wobbled in March/April 2023 after GPT-4 scored 73/100 (an A) on one of his midterms, writing that he was not conceding but gave himself only a 10–15% chance of winning.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2048
“By 2048 (25 years from now), consumers in the US will not have the option to purchase a fully self-driving car lacking a steering wheel, yet possessing the equivalent transportation capabilities of a standard 2023 sedan.”
Verdict: Cheyer argues infrastructure lag, unresolved ethical questions and consumer trust will keep a steering-wheel-free consumer car off the US market; the prediction is open to challenge on Long Bets.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2033
“TAE will develop its first prototype hydrogen-boron fusion power plant, Da Vinci, to deliver electricity to the grid in the early 2030s.”
Verdict: Da Vinci has not been built; TAE's intermediate machine Copernicus has yet to demonstrate net energy, and the early-2030s grid-electricity target remains open.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid Dec 25, 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2023
“GPT-4 by itself won't be a general purpose artificial general intelligence capable of taking on arbitrary tasks. Without external aids it won't be able to drive a car reliably; it won't be able to reliably guide a robot like Optimus to be anything like as versatile as Rosie the Robot. It will remain a turbocharged pastiche generator; reasoning about the physical, psychological and mathematical world will still be unreliable; and 'alignment' will continue to be a critical, unsolved problem.”
Verdict: GPT-4 shipped in March 2023 and was not a general-purpose AGI: it could not drive a car or control a humanoid robot, hallucinations and reasoning errors persisted, and alignment remained unsolved. Marcus's seven GPT-4 predictions were widely regarded — including by later critics tracking his record — as having held, which is why he reissued the same text for GPT-5 in 2025.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Dec 6, 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“TSMC Arizona's first fab is scheduled to begin production of N4 process technology in 2024, and TSMC has started construction of a second fab scheduled to begin production of 3nm process technology in 2026; when complete the two fabs will manufacture over 600,000 wafers per year.”
Verdict: The first-fab milestone was met early — high-volume N4 production began in Q4 2024 — but TSMC now targets volume production at the second Arizona fab on N3 for the second half of 2027, so the 2026 leg looks set to miss when the deadline passes.
Partially correctJobs & EconomySaid Nov 11, 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“2025: annual revenue between approximately €30 billion and €40 billion with a gross margin between approximately 54% and 56%.”
Verdict: ASML's 2025 total net sales came in at €32.7 billion, inside the €30–40 billion range, but the full-year gross margin was 52.8%, below the projected 54–56% band.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Nov 11, 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“2030: annual revenue between approximately €44 billion and €60 billion with a gross margin between approximately 56% and 60%.”
Verdict: Target confirmed again at ASML's 2024 Investor Day; 2026 guidance of €43–45 billion puts the low end of the 2030 range within reach four years early.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid Nov 10, 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Our projections predict that we will have exhausted the stock of low-quality language data by 2030 to 2050, high-quality language data before 2026, and vision data by 2030 to 2060. This might slow down ML progress.”
Verdict: High-quality language data was not exhausted before 2026: Epoch's own June 2024 update explicitly revised the estimate ('our 2022 paper predicted that high-quality text data would be fully used by 2024, whereas our new results indicate that might not happen until 2028') and put full use of the ~300-trillion-token stock of public human text at 2026–2032, while frontier LLM training data kept scaling through 2025 without hitting the projected wall. The low-quality-text (2030–2050) and vision (2030–2060) components are not yet due.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid Oct 31, 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Domain experts and superforecasters assigned only an 8.6% and 2.3% probability, respectively, to an AI system winning a gold medal at the International Mathematical Olympiad on or before 2025; their median forecasts put it after 2030.”
Verdict: In July 2025 both Google DeepMind and OpenAI reported gold-medal-level performance at IMO 2025 — five years earlier than the median expert forecast and ten years earlier than the median superforecaster forecast, and an outcome both panels had rated very unlikely by 2025.
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Oct 19, 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“It takes about a year to ramp up production. So we're tentatively aiming for 50,000 units in 2024 for Tesla Semi in North America. And obviously, we'll expand beyond North America.”
Verdict: Tesla missed the target by orders of magnitude: Semi output stayed at pilot-line scale through 2024 (Musk had already said in mid-2023 that volume production would not start until late 2024), and the 50,000-unit-per-year Nevada factory only opened in September 2026.
“Tesla will be able to produce Optimus humanoid robots in the millions and sell them for under $20,000 — less than a third of the price of a Model Y — and expects to be ready to take orders for the robot in three to five years.”
Verdict: Deadline runs to September 2027. As of September 2026 Tesla has not opened orders for Optimus, has not disclosed a consumer price, and volume production at Fremont had not yet begun.
Partially correctSelf-DrivingSaid Sep 20, 2022Deadline Jun 30, 2025
“NVIDIA DRIVE Thor, the next-generation centralized car computer wielding 2,000 teraflops of performance, will reach the road with first customer ZEEKR, which will integrate DRIVE Thor on its centralized vehicle computer for its next-generation intelligent electric vehicles, starting production in early 2025.”
Verdict: ZEEKR did become the first OEM to integrate DRIVE Thor, unveiling a Thor-based smart-driving domain controller at CES in January 2025, but no Thor-equipped ZEEKR production vehicle shipped in early 2025; Thor-powered models (e.g. the ZEEKR 9X, pre-sales in August and launch in September 2025) arrived only in the second half of the year, after reported Thor mass-production delays.
CorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Sep 12, 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2022
“Cruise will be giving driverless, revenue-generating rides in Phoenix and Austin within 90 days — initially small-scale, with scaled operations to follow next year: "What I'm really excited about is we're going from zero footprint, no maps, no infrastructure on the ground — to our first revenue-generating driverless rides in about 90 days. This is something people thought may take years. It doesn't."”
Verdict: Cruise soft-launched fully driverless paid rides in Austin and in Chandler, in the Phoenix area, on December 20, 2022 — about 99 days later but inside the stated calendar-year deadline. Initial riders were limited to friends and family of employees rather than the general public.
IncorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Aug 13, 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Being humble about it, I predict that somewhere around 2025 we'll have this machine [Copernicus] huffing and puffing and producing the data we hoped for.”
Verdict: Copernicus was not operating or producing data by the end of 2025; TAE's 2025 work centered on its reconfigured 'Norm' machine, and its 2026 communications still describe Copernicus as a future device expected to demonstrate net-energy viability later this decade.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Aug 2, 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2040
“A median of ~2040 [for transformative AI] (a decrease of ~10 years from 2050). This implies that each year in the 4 year period from 2036 to 2040 has an average of almost 4% probability of TAI.”
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Aug 2, 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2036
“~35% probability [of transformative AI] by 2036 (a ~3x likelihood ratio vs 15%). This implies that each year in the 6 year period from 2030 to 2036 has an average of over 3% probability of TAI occurring in that particular year.”
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jun 22, 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“As companies generate profound productivity gains from artificial intelligence, we estimate that software spend per year could grow at a 42% compound annual rate from just under $1 trillion today to $14 trillion in 2030; propelled by AI software, total IT spend could increase 20% at an annual rate and surpass $20 trillion, four times the ~$5 trillion consensus estimate.”
Verdict: Resolves at the end of 2030; ARK has since trimmed the figure to roughly $13 trillion of 2030 software spend in later research.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jun 22, 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“If AI software companies were to generate revenue at a $14 trillion annual rate [in 2030] and a cash flow yield of roughly 30%, AI software could create more than $80 trillion in enterprise value, more than six times the $13 trillion in enterprise value created by the Internet since 1997.”
— ARK Invest, Asset manager; analyst research 'Productivity Gains Could Propel The AI Software Market To $14 Trillion By 2030' (Investor). ARK Invest analyst research, June 2022
Verdict: Target year is 2030; ARK later raised the associated value estimates in Big Ideas 2023.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jun 22, 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“According to our research, during the next eight years AI software could boost the productivity of the average knowledge worker by nearly 140%, adding approximately $50,000 in value per worker, or $56 trillion globally.”
— ARK Invest, Asset manager; analyst research 'Productivity Gains Could Propel The AI Software Market To $14 Trillion By 2030' (Investor). ARK Invest analyst research, June 2022
Verdict: Deadline is 2030; ARK subsequently raised this to a more-than-4x productivity gain in Big Ideas 2023 (already tracked separately).
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Jun 14, 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“Stellantis has chosen Valeo's third-generation SCALA 3 LiDAR to equip multiple models across its brands from 2024, enabling those vehicles to be certified for Level 3 automation — "allowing drivers to safely take their hands off the steering wheel and their eyes off the road."”
Verdict: No Stellantis vehicle offered Level 3 hands-off, eyes-off driving in 2024. Stellantis later showed an STLA AutoDrive Level 3 system but held it back from customer vehicles, and none was on sale as of 2026.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid Jun 2022Deadline Jun 1, 2025
“My proposed operationalization of this is that on June 1, 2025... we'll give [the best image generating model] the following prompts: 1. A stained glass picture of a woman in a library with a raven on her shoulder with a key in its mouth; 2. An oil painting of a man in a factory looking at a cat wearing a top hat; 3. A digital art picture of a child riding a llama with a bell on its tail through a desert; 4. A 3D render of an astronaut in space holding a fox wearing lipstick; 5. Pixel art of a farmer in a cathedral holding a red basketball. We generate 10 images for each prompt, just like DALL-E2 does. If at least one of the ten images has the scene correct in every particular on 3/5 prompts, I win, otherwise you do.”
Verdict: Alexander's premature September 2022 victory claim was retracted after Surge AI labelers judged the Imagen outputs inadequate, but when the bet came due on June 1, 2025, GPT-4o/ChatGPT image generation cleared the 3-of-5 bar; official judge Gwern agreed Alexander won and counterparty Vitor conceded.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid May 31, 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“$100,000 says AGI will not arrive by 2029: if any single AI system satisfies at least three of my five criteria (e.g., watching a movie and reliably explaining plot and motivations; reading a novel and answering questions about it; working as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen; writing bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines from natural-language spec; deriving mathematical proofs from natural language) by then, Musk wins; otherwise I do.”
Verdict: Musk never accepted; others (including Vivek Wadhwa, who matched it) raised the wager to $500,000, and Kevin Kelly offered to host it at Long Bets. Metaculus opened markets on several of the five criteria. Resolution due after 2029.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid May 28, 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“Video generation is the next modality that will fall: the RNN, GAN, and Transformer video generation models all showed that video is not that intrinsically hard, it's just computationally expensive, and diffusion models appear to be about to eat video generation the way they've been eating everything else; morally, video is solved, and now it's about engineering & scaling up, but that can take a long time and whoever does it probably won't release checkpoints.”
Verdict: Video generation was indeed the next modality to fall on roughly this timetable, and via diffusion: Runway Gen-2 (2023), OpenAI's diffusion-transformer Sora (announced February 2024, released December 2024), Google Veo and Kling all arrived within the essay's 2023–2024 horizon, with progress driven mainly by engineering and scale. The hedged sub-claim about checkpoints held for the frontier leaders (Sora and Veo remained closed), though some open-weight video models — Stable Video Diffusion, Mochi 1, HunyuanVideo — were released.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid May 20, 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2041
“By 2041, I predict that AI will beat humans at an ever-increasing number of tasks. But that will not render us useless or unemployed. I think there will be many existing tasks that humans can handle much better than software programs or robots.”
Verdict: Horizon is 2041; resolves on whether AI's capability gains are accompanied by mass unemployment or human 'uselessness.'
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid Apr 7, 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2023
“I think we have a shot at being in production for version 1 of Optimus hopefully next year [2023]... It will be able to do basically anything humans don't want to do.”
Verdict: Optimus was nowhere near production in 2023 — Tesla only demoed prototypes (Gen 1/Gen 2). Tesla was still installing its first Optimus production lines at Fremont in 2026, roughly three years after the promised production start.
IncorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Apr 4, 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“The world's first commercial fusion energy generator marches towards 2024 operation!”
Verdict: Helion finished assembling Polaris in late 2024 and began initial operations, but it was a prototype, not a commercial generator, and produced no electricity in 2024. Helion's first commercial plant, Orion, only broke ground in July 2025 and targets 2028.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Mar 22, 2022Deadline Mar 31, 2028
“Since last April, NVIDIA's total automotive design-win pipeline has increased from $8 billion to more than $11 billion over the next six years, spanning the entire autonomous vehicle industry — from the top EV makers to Jaguar Land Rover, Mercedes-Benz and Volvo Cars, trucking companies and robotaxi manufacturers.”
Verdict: The six-year window runs to early 2028; resolution will hinge on NVIDIA's cumulative reported automotive revenue over FY2023–FY2028, since the company no longer routinely updates the design-win pipeline figure.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Mar 4, 2022Deadline Jan 1, 2030
“I have another long-term bet: I bet @codinghorror $10k that by January 1st, 2030, completely autonomous self-driving cars meeting SAE J3016 level 5 will be commercially available for passenger use in major cities.”
Verdict: $10,000 bet against Jeff Atwood, payable to the winner's chosen 501(c)(3); 'major cities' is defined as any of the ten most populous US cities, and SAE Level 5 requires all driving tasks under all conditions with zero human attention.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Mar 4, 2022Deadline Jan 1, 2030
“John Carmack and I have initiated a friendly bet of $10,000 to the 501(c)(3) charity of the winner's choice: By January 1st, 2030, completely autonomous self-driving cars meeting SAE J3016 level 5 will be commercially available for passenger use in major cities. I am betting against, and John is betting for... To be clear, I am betting against because I think everyone is underestimating how difficult fully autonomous driving really is. (By 'major cities' we mean any of the top 10 most populous cities in the United States of America.)”
Verdict: Per the agreed terms, a passenger must be able to enter the vehicle, select a destination and give zero attention for the journey, in one of the ten most populous US cities, before January 1, 2030.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Feb 17, 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“We're on a path from 100 billion transistors this year to a trillion transistors on a package by 2030.”
Verdict: Gelsinger repeated the trillion-transistor-by-2030 target at subsequent Intel events; the deadline is still years away.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Feb 8, 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Securing the supply in the most advanced chips has become an economic and geopolitical priority. Our objectives are high: doubling our global market share by 2030 to 20%, and producing the most sophisticated and energy-efficient semiconductors in Europe.”
Verdict: Deadline is 2030. The European Court of Auditors concluded in April 2025 that the 20% target is very unlikely to be reached, citing the Commission's own forecast of roughly 11.7% EU share by 2030.
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid Feb 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“I'd put 4% on an AI built before the IMO solving the single hardest problem at the 2022, 2023, 2024 or 2025 IMO; maybe 8% on 'gets gold' instead (under the time controls etc. of the IMO Grand Challenge).”
Verdict: In July 2025 both Google DeepMind (Gemini Deep Think, 35/42) and OpenAI reported gold-medal-level performance at the IMO under human-like time controls, so the outcome Christiano put at ~8% occurred. However, the hardest problem (P6) was not solved, consistent with his separate <4% forecast, which is why commentators called the resolution not fully clear-cut.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid Feb 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Paul put 8% probability on 'AI built before the 2025 IMO reaches gold level on it' and I put 'at least 16%'... I'll stand by a >16% probability of the technical capability existing by end of 2025.”
Verdict: In July 2025, models from Google DeepMind and OpenAI achieved gold-medal-level scores (35/42, five of six problems) at the IMO under human-equivalent time controls, vindicating the higher-probability side of the disagreement roughly three and a half years after it was registered.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid Jan 22, 2022
“I take an object, I put it on the table, and I push the table. It's completely obvious to you that the object will be pushed with the table... There is no text in the world, I believe, that explains this. And so if you train a machine as powerful as it could be — your GPT-5000 or whatever it is — it's never gonna learn about this.”
Verdict: Within roughly a year, text-only trained LLMs far short of a hypothetical 'GPT-5000' — GPT-4 and successors — answered this exact tabletop-physics scenario correctly and reliably, a falsification widely noted (e.g. by 80,000 Hours). LeCun has since shifted his argument to broader limits of autoregressive LLMs rather than this specific inference.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid Jan 21, 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“Construction of Intel's two new leading-edge chip factories in Licking County, Ohio is expected to begin in late 2022, with production coming online at the end of 2025.”
Verdict: No production occurred by the end of 2025. Intel pushed the schedule repeatedly — first to 2026/2027 and then, in 2025, to completion of the first fab in 2030 with operations beginning 2030–31 and the second fab operational in 2032.
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Jan 5, 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“General Motors will sell personal autonomous vehicles by "the middle of the decade": "We are looking further down the road at opportunities to extend fully autonomous vehicle technology to personal transportation... we are working to be the fastest to market with a retail personal autonomous vehicle."”
Verdict: GM sold no personal autonomous vehicle by mid-decade. It stopped funding Cruise robotaxi development in December 2024 and in October 2025 said eyes-off driving would only reach market in 2028 on the Cadillac Escalade IQ.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jan 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Informed by Wright's Law, we estimate that AI-relative compute unit (RCU) production costs could decline at a 39% annual rate and that software improvements could contribute an additional 37% in cost declines during the next eight years. In other words, the convergence of hardware and software could drive down AI training costs by 60% at an annual rate by 2030.”
Verdict: Target year 2030 is still in the future; ARK later revised this same forecast upward to 70% annually (Big Ideas 2023) and 75% annually (Big Ideas 2024).
IncorrectHealthcareSaid Dec 7, 2021Deadline Dec 31, 2022
“We hope to have this in our first humans — which will be people that have severe spinal cord injuries like tetraplegics, quadriplegics — next year, pending FDA approval.”
Verdict: Neuralink implanted no human in 2022; its FDA application was rejected that year over safety concerns. Approval came in May 2023 and the first human implant in January 2024.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Nov 17, 2021Deadline Dec 31, 2031
“There's a very good shot to get there [commercial fusion] within less than ten years.”
Verdict: Deadline is end-2031; as of 2026 no private company has yet demonstrated net electricity from fusion, let alone commercial operation.
IncorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Nov 5, 2021Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“Polaris is expected to be the first fusion device capable of demonstrating net electricity production. Helion plans to reach this milestone in 2024... 'This funding ensures that Helion will be the first organization to generate electricity from fusion.'”
Verdict: Polaris was only completed in late 2024 and demonstrated no net electricity that year; the target slipped repeatedly, and by 2026 Helion had restated the Polaris goal from 'net electricity' to simply 'demonstrating electricity from fusion.'
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Aug 24, 2021Deadline Dec 31, 2040
“My more serious attempt at an AGI prediction was a probability of 50% by 2028 and 90% by 2040, which I've roughly held since 1999 and have repeated in many places.”
Verdict: Legg's long-standing distribution puts 50% on AGI by 2028 and 90% by 2040; both horizons are still in the future.
IncorrectEnergy & Data CentersSaid Aug 19, 2021Deadline Dec 31, 2022
“We should have Dojo operational next year. [The 10-cabinet Dojo ExaPod, not yet assembled, will break the ExaFlop barrier and become the fastest AI training computer in the world.]”
Verdict: Dojo was not operational in 2022: at AI Day in September 2022 Tesla had progressed only to a system tray and a single cabinet and was targeting a full ExaPod in Q1 2023. Dojo only went into production in July 2023, and Tesla wound down the program in 2025.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid Aug 19, 2021Deadline Dec 31, 2022
“So, we think we'll probably have a prototype [of the Tesla Bot humanoid robot] sometime next year.”
Verdict: Tesla showed semi-functional Optimus prototypes at AI Day on September 30, 2022 — one walked unassisted on stage — meeting the 'prototype sometime next year' timeline, albeit far short of the concept presented in 2021.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Aug 2021Deadline Aug 31, 2026
“I believe Nvidia is capable of out-performing all five FAAMG stocks and will surpass even Apple's valuation in the next five years. Nvidia has a market cap of roughly $550 billion compared to Apple's nearly $2.5 trillion. We believe Nvidia can surpass Apple by capitalizing on the artificial intelligence economy, which will add an estimated $15 trillion to GDP.”
Verdict: Nvidia passed Apple's market cap in June 2024 and closed ahead of Apple as the world's most valuable company on November 5, 2024 — about two years inside the five-year window. Nvidia held the top spot until Apple reclaimed it in July 2026.
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid Jul 26, 2021Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“We are accelerating our innovation roadmap to ensure we are on a clear path to process performance leadership by 2025: five nodes in four years — Intel 7, Intel 4, Intel 3, Intel 20A and Intel 18A — restoring process performance-per-watt parity in 2024 and leadership in 2025.”
Verdict: Intel delivered Intel 7, Intel 4, Intel 3 and Intel 18A, but cancelled high-volume manufacturing of Intel 20A in September 2024, and 18A only reached high-volume production at Fab 52 in late 2025 with the first Panther Lake SKU shipping at year-end and broad availability in January 2026. The underlying goal of process performance-per-watt parity in 2024 and unquestioned leadership in 2025 was not achieved.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid Mar 16, 2021Deadline Mar 16, 2026
“In the next five years, computer programs that can think will read legal documents and give medical advice.”
Verdict: By 2026 LLM-based tools (Harvey, Thomson Reuters CoCounsel and similar) are in mainstream use for contract analysis and document review at large law firms, and hundreds of millions of people consult ChatGPT weekly for health questions while clinicians widely use tools like OpenEvidence. Both halves of the claim were met within five years, though such advice remains error-prone and non-authoritative.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Mar 16, 2021Deadline Mar 16, 2031
“In the next decade, [computer programs that can think] will do assembly-line work and maybe even become companions.”
Verdict: Deadline is March 2031; resolution will turn on whether AI-driven robots (e.g. humanoid systems being piloted by Tesla, Figure and BMW/Mercedes suppliers) perform general assembly-line work rather than only pre-programmed industrial automation.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Mar 16, 2021Deadline Dec 31, 2031
“There is also about $30 trillion worth of privately-held land in the US (not counting improvements on top of the land). Assume that this value will roughly double, too, over the next decade — this is somewhat faster than the historical rate, but as the world really starts to understand the shifts AI will cause, the value of land, as one of the few truly finite assets, should increase at a faster rate.”
Verdict: Resolves against the value of privately-held US land in 2031 versus the ~$30 trillion baseline Altman cited in 2021.
IncorrectHealthcareSaid Feb 1, 2021Deadline Dec 31, 2021
“Neuralink is working super hard to ensure implant safety & is in close communication with the FDA. If things go well, we might be able to do initial human trials later this year.”
Verdict: No human trials began in 2021. The FDA rejected Neuralink's initial application in 2022, approved human trials only in May 2023, and the first human implant took place in January 2024.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Jan 26, 2021Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“ARK's research suggests that autonomous ride-hailing platforms will generate more than $1 trillion in profits per year by 2030. In addition, automakers and fleet owners could enjoy profits of $250 billion and $70 billion, respectively.”
Verdict: Autonomous ride-hail was still pre-scale at the end of 2025: Waymo was the only meaningful US operator (valued in the low hundreds of billions at most), GM shut Cruise down, and Tesla's robotaxi service was limited to small supervised fleets — aggregate enterprise value for autonomous platform operators was orders of magnitude below $3.8 trillion.
PendingEnergy & Data CentersSaid Jan 26, 2021Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“In the data center, we believe accelerators, dominated by GPUs, will become the dominant processors for new workloads, growing 21% at an annual rate to $41 billion by 2030.”
Verdict: Target year is 2030, but the estimate already looks far too low: Nvidia's data center revenue alone has run well above a $41 billion annual rate since fiscal 2024.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Oct 20, 2020Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“By 2025, 85 million jobs may be displaced by a shift in the division of labour between humans and machines, while 97 million new roles may emerge that are more adapted to the new division of labour between humans, machines and algorithms.”
Verdict: The gross displacement and creation figures were survey extrapolations across 26 economies and have never been independently accounted for; global employment grew over 2020–2025, directionally consistent with the report's net-positive framing, but WEF issued fresh 2030 projections in 2025 rather than scoring this forecast.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Sep 18, 2020Deadline Dec 31, 2031
“Forecasting TAI with biological anchors: the model finds a ~10% chance that transformative AI is developed by 2031.”
Verdict: A year later, at Tesla's AI Day on August 19, 2021, Dojo existed only as the D1 chip and training tiles, and Musk said the system would be 'operational next year.' The first Dojo cabinet/ExaPod only entered production in July 2023, and Tesla disbanded the Dojo team in 2025.
“We're headed toward a situation where AI is vastly smarter than humans, and I think that time frame is less than five years from now. But that doesn't mean that everything goes to hell in five years. It just means that things get unstable or weird.”
Verdict: By July 2025 no AI system was 'vastly smarter than humans': frontier models remained below human experts on many reasoning, agentic and real-world tasks, and Musk himself had by then pushed his superintelligence date out to 2025–2026 and beyond.
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Jul 9, 2020Deadline Dec 31, 2020
“I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year. I think there are no fundamental challenges remaining for level five autonomy.”
Verdict: Tesla released a limited FSD Beta in October 2020, but it was an SAE Level 2 system requiring constant driver supervision, not completed Level 5 functionality. Tesla's FSD is still classified as Level 2 in 2026.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid May 7, 2020Deadline Dec 31, 2020
“AI training costs have dropped roughly 10x every year. In 2017 the cost to train an image recognition network like ResNet-50 on a public cloud was ~$1,000; in 2019 the cost dropped to ~$10. At the current rate of improvement, the cost should fall to $1 by the end of this year [2020].”
— ARK Invest, Asset manager; analyst research note 'AI Training Costs Are Improving at 50x the Speed of Moore's Law' (Investor). ARK Invest analyst research, 2020
Verdict: The Stanford AI Index 2021, using DAWNBench data, put the cost of training an ImageNet image-recognition system to 93% accuracy at about $7.43 in 2020 (down ~150x from ~$1,100 in 2017), and the 2022 AI Index put it at $4.60 in 2021 — the ~10x-per-year pace stalled and the $1 threshold was not reached by end-2020.
IncorrectHealthcareSaid May 7, 2020Deadline May 7, 2021
“We're not testing people yet, but I think it won't be too long. We may be able to implant a neural link in less than a year in a person, I think.”
Verdict: Neuralink implanted no human by May 2021; the device was only demonstrated in a pig (August 2020) and a monkey (2021). The first human implant came on January 29, 2024, nearly four years later.
PendingSafety & RiskSaid Mar 2020Deadline Dec 31, 2120
“Existential catastrophe via unaligned artificial intelligence: ~1 in 10 within the next 100 years — the single largest existential risk humanity faces, out of a total existential risk of about 1 in 6.”
Verdict: Ord explains the 10% as roughly a 50% chance of creating something more intelligent than humanity this century combined with a substantial chance that it goes badly; he has since revisited these estimates in later talks.
IncorrectHealthcareSaid Jul 16, 2019Deadline Dec 31, 2020
“Neuralink wants to have its first human patient equipped with the technology before the end of 2020 — the company is looking to start trials on humans next year, pending FDA approval.”
Verdict: No human was implanted in 2020. Neuralink did not even seek FDA approval until 2022 (initially rejected), received approval in May 2023, opened recruitment in September 2023, and announced its first human implant on January 29, 2024.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jun 26, 2019Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Up to 20 million manufacturing jobs worldwide could be displaced by robots by 2030 — leaving the sector about 8.5% smaller than if robots were not remaking the market — with roughly 14 million of those losses in China.”
Verdict: Zero Tesla robotaxis operated in 2020. Tesla's first limited, supervised robotaxi pilot did not launch until 2025 — with a small fleet, not a million.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Feb 2019Deadline Dec 31, 2039
“Deep learning could create 3x the value of the internet: the internet captured 15% of the globe's equity market capitalization over 20 years; if deep learning were to achieve the same rate of adoption, it would add $30 trillion to global equity market capitalizations in the next 20 years.”
Verdict: Horizon runs to 2039; ARK reaffirmed the $30 trillion figure in its 2020 and 2021 Big Ideas reports, and AI-linked equity value has grown sharply since 2019.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jan 13, 2019Deadline Dec 31, 2034
“"Chauffeurs, truck drivers, anyone who does driving for a living — their jobs will be disrupted more in the 15-to-20-year time frame. And many jobs that seem a little bit complex — chef, waiter — a lot of things will become automated... all together in 15 years, that's going to displace about 40 percent of the jobs in the world." (Asked if 40% of jobs will be displaced, Lee clarified: "I would say displaceable.")”
Verdict: Resolves at end-2034 on whether AI is technically capable of displacing roughly 40% of global jobs; note Lee's separate, earlier prediction that AI would displace 50% of jobs by 2027 is tracked separately (kaifulee-2024-fifty-percent-jobs-2027).
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Sep 25, 2018Deadline Dec 31, 2033
“Based on the current trends in technology advancement and adoption, I predict that within fifteen years, artificial intelligence will technically be able to replace around 40 to 50 percent of jobs in the United States. Actual job losses may end up lagging those technical capabilities by an additional decade, but I forecast that the disruption to job markets will be very real, very large, and coming soon.”
Verdict: Deadline is 2033. Elsewhere in the same book Lee frames the estimate as 'within ten to twenty years, 40 to 50 percent of jobs in the United States'; in 2024 he described the forecast as having proven 'eerily accurate.'
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Feb 24, 2018
“There will be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles. (Similarly, we'll see an 8 year doubling before a 2 year doubling, etc.)”
Verdict: Christiano's canonical operationalization of 'slow takeoff'; neither a 4-year nor a 1-year doubling of world output has occurred, so the ordering condition remains unresolved.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Feb 8, 2018Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“By the end of the 2020s, automation may eliminate as many as 20% to 25% of current jobs — equivalent to 40 million displaced workers in the United States — hitting middle- to low-income workers the hardest and depressing wage growth for many more.”
Verdict: The end-of-decade horizon has not yet arrived; US employment has so far shown no displacement on anything like the 40-million scale.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Feb 2018Deadline Dec 31, 2035
“Automation will come in three overlapping waves: an algorithm wave to the early 2020s putting around 3% of jobs at potential high risk, an augmentation wave to the late 2020s raising this to around 20%, and an autonomy wave to the mid-2030s raising it to around 30% of existing jobs.”
Verdict: The final 'autonomy wave' runs to the mid-2030s, recorded as end-2035; the earlier waves are staged milestones within the same forecast.
CorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Jan 1, 2018Deadline Jan 1, 2021
“First dedicated lane where only cars in truly driverless mode are allowed on a public freeway. NET 2021. (This is a bit like current day HOV lanes. My bet is the left most lane on 101 between SF and Silicon Valley.)”
Verdict: No driverless-only lane opened on any US public freeway before 2021 — or since — and Brooks has scored this prediction as accurate in his annual scorecards.
CorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Jan 1, 2018Deadline Jan 1, 2023
“A deployed driverless package delivery service in a major US city. NET 2023.”
Verdict: No driverless package-delivery service was operating in a major US city before 2023; Brooks noted only campus-bound food/sidewalk robots, and the prediction was counted as accurate in his January 2023 scorecard.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Jan 1, 2018Deadline Jan 1, 2028
“Driverless taxi services in 50 major US cities. NET 2028 — it will be at least 2028 before there are 50 major US cities with driverless taxi services.”
Verdict: Driverless ride services operate in only a handful of US metros; Brooks pre-called this NET 2028 prediction as safe in his January 2026 scorecard, saying it is 'not going to happen in 2027.'
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Jan 1, 2018Deadline Jan 1, 2032
“A driverless "taxi" service in a major US city with arbitrary pick up and drop off locations, even in a restricted geographical area. NET 2032. (This is what Uber, Lyft, and conventional taxi services can do today.)”
Verdict: Brooks has not yet called this one; driverless services have expanded within geofenced metros but still steer riders to adjusted pickup and drop-off points rather than arbitrary ones.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Jan 1, 2018Deadline Dec 31, 2031
“A major city bans parking and cars with drivers from a non-trivial portion of a city so that driverless cars have free reign in that area. NET 2027. BY 2031. (This will be the starting point for a turning of the tide toward driverless cars.)”
Verdict: Brooks says the NET 2027 floor is safe because 'no cities anywhere (except perhaps Singapore) have even given this any thought'; the BY 2031 upper bound remains open.
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Jan 1, 2018Deadline Jan 1, 2045
“The majority of US cities have the majority of their downtown under such rules [banning parking and cars with drivers so that driverless cars have free reign]. NET 2045.”
Verdict: The deadline (Jan 1, 2027) has not quite passed, but US EV share was below 8.5% for 2025 with a record 10.5% quarter, and 2026 sales have weakened further — Brooks calls 'NET 2027 a solid prediction… itself probably wildly optimistic.'
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jan 1, 2018Deadline Dec 31, 2040
“Dexterous robot hands generally available. NET 2030. BY 2040 (I hope!). (Despite some impressive lab demonstrations we have not actually seen any improvement in widely deployed robotic hands or end effectors in the last 40 years.)”
Verdict: The NET 2030 floor has not been reached; Brooks separately predicts deployable dexterity will remain poor compared with human hands even beyond 2036.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid Jan 1, 2018Deadline Jan 1, 2026
“A robot that can navigate around just about any US home, with its steps, its clutter, its narrow pathways between furniture, etc. Lab demo: NET 2026. (What is easy for humans is still very, very hard for robots.)”
Verdict: No lab demonstration of a robot navigating arbitrary cluttered US homes had appeared by January 2026; Brooks notes that humanoid 'home' demos use movie-set houses with wide clear walkways and no people.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jan 1, 2018Deadline Jan 1, 2035
“A robot that can navigate around just about any US home, with its steps, its clutter, its narrow pathways between furniture, etc. Expensive product: NET 2030. Affordable product: NET 2035.”
Verdict: Brooks says the 2030 and 2035 product predictions are 'in real danger' of being too optimistic, since there has still been no lab demonstration of the underlying capability.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jan 1, 2018Deadline Jan 1, 2028
“A robot that can provide physical assistance to the elderly over multiple tasks (e.g., getting into and out of bed, washing, using the toilet, etc.) rather than just a point solution. NET 2028.”
Verdict: Brooks called this NET 2028 prediction 18 months early, writing that 'so far we don't have a solid demonstration, i.e., one that works again and again,' for even a single one of these tasks as a point solution.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jan 1, 2018Deadline Jan 1, 2028
“A robot that can carry out the last 10 yards of delivery, getting from a vehicle into a house and putting the package inside the front door. Lab demo: NET 2025. Deployed systems: NET 2028.”
Verdict: The 2025 lab-demo floor passed with no such demonstration, and Brooks called the NET 2028 deployment prediction 18 months early on the grounds that there has been no visible progress in eight of the ten years he allotted.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid Jan 1, 2018Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“A conversational agent that both carries long term context, and does not easily fall into recognizable and repeated patterns. Lab demo: NET 2023. Deployed systems: 2025. (Deployment platforms already exist — e.g., Google Home and Amazon Echo — so it will be a fast track from lab demo to wide spread deployment.)”
Verdict: Large language model assistants with long context windows and persistent memory were demonstrated from 2023 and widely deployed by 2025, matching the timeline he set; Brooks himself says he was 'lucky on that date' for LLMs becoming the next big thing in 2023, while continuing to argue their outputs cannot be trusted.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jan 1, 2018Deadline Jan 1, 2048
“A robot that seems as intelligent, as attentive, and as faithful, as a dog. NET 2048. (This is so much harder than most people imagine it to be — many think we are already there; I say we are not at all there.)”
Verdict: Brooks still maintains the 2048 floor, repeating in 2026 that this is 'so much harder than most people imagine it to be.'
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Jan 1, 2018Deadline Jan 1, 2050
“A robot that has any real idea about its own existence, or the existence of humans in the way that a six year old understands humans. NIML — Not In My Lifetime, i.e., not before 2050.”
Verdict: One of five predictions Brooks labels NIML, which he defines as after January 1, 2050, just past his 95th birthday.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jan 1, 2018Deadline Dec 31, 2027
“The 'next big thing' in AI, beyond deep learning, will show up no earlier than 2023, but certainly by 2027 — and someone is already working on it, with the key papers most likely already published.”
Verdict: The 'BY 2027' window is still open, but Brooks scored this as correct in his 2024 and later scorecards: LLMs were generally accepted as the next big thing in 2023, and the key paper ('Attention Is All You Need', June 2017) predated his prediction.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Dec 13, 2017Deadline Dec 31, 2020
“In 2020, artificial intelligence will become a positive net job motivator, creating 2.3 million jobs while eliminating 1.8 million jobs.”
Verdict: The deadline has passed but the claim is not resolvable against any accepted measurement: no statistical agency tracks jobs 'created' or 'eliminated' by AI, and 2020 labour-market outcomes were dominated by the COVID-19 shock. Gartner has published no retrospective verification of the 2.3m/1.8m figures.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Nov 28, 2017Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“Between 400 million and 800 million individuals could be displaced by automation and need to find new jobs by 2030; as many as 375 million workers — about 14% of the global workforce — may need to switch occupational categories and learn new skills.”
Verdict: Target year 2030 is still in the future; the 400–800 million range spans MGI's midpoint and rapid-adoption scenarios.
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Nov 16, 2017Deadline Dec 31, 2019
“The Tesla Semi will go into production in 2019, with Enhanced Autopilot — automatic emergency braking, automatic lane keeping and lane departure warning — standard on the truck, which is also platooning-enabled.”
Verdict: Production did not begin in 2019: the timeline slipped to 2020, then 2021, then 2022, with only a handful of trucks delivered to PepsiCo at the end of 2022 and the first high-volume-line Semi rolling out of Giga Nevada in April 2026. Convoy mode and the self-driving claims were quietly dropped from Tesla's messaging.
Partially correctSelf-DrivingSaid Oct 26, 2017Deadline Dec 31, 2021
“It will take no more than 4 years to have fully autonomous cars on the road. How long it takes for the vast majority of cars on the road to become that, it really just depends.”
Verdict: By the end of 2021 fully driverless vehicles existed on public roads only in tiny geofenced pilots (Waymo's rider-only service in the Phoenix area), so the literal claim was narrowly met, but no fully autonomous consumer vehicles — including NVIDIA DRIVE-powered ones — were on the road as the prediction implied.
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid Jul 20, 2017Deadline Dec 31, 2020
“By 2020, China's overall AI technology and application will be in step with globally advanced levels, with the scale of AI's core industry exceeding 150 billion RMB and the scale of related industries exceeding 1 trillion RMB.”
Verdict: The industrial target was met: China's core AI industry was put at about 325 billion RMB in 2020, roughly double the 150 billion RMB goal. The 'in step with globally advanced levels' half is contested — China led in applications and deployment but still trailed the US badly in frontier models and AI chips in 2020.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Jul 20, 2017Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“By 2025, China will achieve major breakthroughs in basic AI theory, with some technologies and applications reaching world-leading levels and AI becoming the main driving force for China's industrial upgrading and economic transformation; the scale of AI's core industry will exceed 400 billion RMB and related industries will exceed 5 trillion RMB.”
Verdict: MIIT reported at the December 2025 national industry conference that China's core AI industry exceeded 1 trillion RMB in 2025 — roughly 2.5x the 400 billion RMB target — and Chinese open-weight models such as DeepSeek's put some Chinese technologies at or near world-leading levels.
PendingCapabilitiesSaid Jul 20, 2017Deadline Dec 31, 2030
“By 2030, China's AI theories, technologies and applications will achieve world-leading levels, making China the world's primary AI innovation center, with the scale of AI's core industry exceeding 1 trillion RMB and related industries exceeding 10 trillion RMB.”
Verdict: The 1 trillion RMB core-industry figure was already reported reached in 2025, five years early; the harder 'world's primary AI innovation center' half remains open until 2030.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid May 24, 2017Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024) — i.e. a 50% chance that machines will 'perform translation about as good as a human who is fluent in both languages but unskilled at translation, for most types of text, and for most popular languages (including languages that are known to be difficult, like Czech, Chinese and Arabic).'”
Verdict: By 2024 LLM-based translation had clearly passed the 'fluent but untrained bilingual' bar: a November 2024 benchmarking study found GPT-4 matched junior-to-mid-level professional human translators across high-, medium- and low-resource directions, with commercial systems at or near parity for popular languages.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid May 24, 2017Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as writing high-school essays (by 2026) — i.e. a 50% chance that machines will 'write an essay for a high school history class that would receive high grades and pass plagiarism detectors.'”
Verdict: Achieved ahead of the deadline: a February 2023 scoring attempt judged ChatGPT history essays below average, but GPT-4-class models from 2023 onward routinely produce high-scoring high-school history essays that plagiarism detectors do not flag.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid May 24, 2017Deadline Dec 31, 2061
“Researchers believe there is a 50% chance of AI outperforming humans in all tasks in 45 years (i.e. by about 2061, counting from the 2016 survey) and of automating all human jobs in 120 years.”
Verdict: Aggregate forecast of 352 machine learning researchers surveyed in 2016; North American respondents gave 74 years versus 30 years for respondents from Asia.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid May 8, 2017Deadline Dec 31, 2050
“The crucial problem isn't creating new jobs. The crucial problem is creating new jobs that humans perform better than algorithms. Consequently, by 2050 a new class of people might emerge – the useless class. People who are not just unemployed, but unemployable.”
Verdict: Target is 2050; as of 2026 AI-driven displacement is visible in some white-collar and customer-service roles, but no 'useless class' of structurally unemployable people has emerged.
IncorrectHealthcareSaid Apr 7, 2017Deadline Dec 31, 2022
“The role of the radiologist will be obsolete in five years. There's no reason a human should be doing it.”
Verdict: Radiology was not obsolete by 2022: AI imaging tools were deployed only as narrow adjuncts requiring radiologist sign-off, while the US faced a radiologist shortage with record job openings and expanded residency slots. Not a single radiology role was eliminated by autonomous AI within the five-year window.
Partially correctJobs & EconomySaid Mar 2017Deadline Dec 31, 2022
“Just as electricity transformed almost everything 100 years ago, today I actually have a hard time thinking of an industry that I don't think AI will transform in the next several years.”
Verdict: By the end of 2022 AI had materially reshaped parts of advertising, search, finance, logistics and medical imaging, and generative AI was beginning to spread, but most major industries — construction, agriculture, hospitality, personal services — had not been transformed within the 'next several years' window Ng implied.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Mar 2017Deadline Dec 31, 2032
“Up to 30% of existing UK jobs could potentially be at high risk of automation by the early 2030s, lower than the US (38%) or Germany (35%), but higher than Japan (21%).”
PendingSelf-DrivingSaid Feb 2017Deadline Feb 28, 2027
“Within 10 years it will be 'unusual' for cars to be manufactured that are not fully autonomous; the disruption of car-based transportation will take place over the next 20 years.”
Verdict: Deadline is early 2027; as of 2026 the overwhelming majority of new vehicles manufactured worldwide are not fully autonomous, with only limited driverless fleets (Waymo, Zoox, Tesla's supervised robotaxi pilots) on the road.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Feb 2017Deadline Feb 28, 2037
“Twenty years is a short period of time to have something like 12-15 percent of the workforce be unemployed [due to autonomous transport and automation] — governments will have to introduce a universal basic income.”
Verdict: Deadline is 2037. US unemployment has remained in the 3.5-4.5% range through 2026, far below the 12-15% Musk anticipated, and no universal basic income has been adopted.
PendingSafety & RiskSaid Jan 17, 2017Deadline Jan 1, 2030
“Bryan Caplan pays Eliezer $100 now, in exchange for $200 CPI-adjusted from Eliezer if the world has not been ended by nonaligned AI before 12:00am GMT on January 1st, 2030.”
Verdict: Bet terms were drafted in the first person by Yudkowsky and prepaid by Caplan; note that Yudkowsky has argued the prepayment structure makes the implied odds a poor read of his actual credence. Resolves 1 January 2030.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jan 12, 2017Deadline Dec 31, 2055
“About half of all the activities people are paid to do in the world's workforce could potentially be automated by adapting currently demonstrated technologies; we estimate that half of today's work activities could be automated by 2055, but this could happen up to 20 years earlier or later.”
Verdict: Target date 2055 is far in the future; MGI itself revised the midpoint forward to 2045 in its 2023 generative-AI work.
IncorrectHealthcareSaid Oct 2016Deadline Oct 27, 2021
“People should stop training radiologists now. It's just completely obvious that within five years deep learning is going to do better than radiologists.”
Verdict: By 2021 AI had become a useful assistive tool in radiology, but radiologist demand grew — the US faced a radiologist shortage. Hinton later acknowledged the timeline was wrong.
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Oct 19, 2016Deadline Dec 31, 2017
“A Tesla will drive itself from Los Angeles to New York, fully autonomously, by the end of 2017.”
Verdict: The coast-to-coast autonomous demo never happened — not in 2017, and not in the years after. Tesla's system still requires driver supervision.
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Aug 16, 2016Deadline Dec 31, 2021
“We're announcing our intent to have fully autonomous vehicles in commercial operation for a ride-hailing or ride-sharing service beginning in 2021... Ford will be mass producing vehicles capable of driving fully autonomously within five years. No steering wheel. No gas pedals. No brake pedals. A driver will not be required.”
Verdict: Ford never mass-produced a pedal- and steering-wheel-free vehicle; the target was pushed to 2022 and then abandoned when Ford and VW shut down Argo AI in October 2022. Fields himself was ousted as CEO in 2017.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Aug 2, 2016Deadline Dec 31, 2116
“The basic premise of my book is that the next big revolution on the scale of the farming and industrial revolutions will come from human level artificial intelligence in the form of brain emulations (ems). Yes, because people have asked I've estimated that this will happen within roughly a century, but that estimate isn't central.”
Verdict: Whole-brain emulation has not been achieved; the ~2116 horizon is far in the future, and Hanson himself notes the century estimate is not central to his argument.
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Jul 1, 2016Deadline Dec 31, 2021
“BMW Group, Intel and Mobileye are collaborating to bring solutions for highly and fully automated driving into series production by 2021 — an approach that 'will become driving reality with the BMW iNEXT model in 2021.'”
Verdict: The iNEXT reached series production in 2021 as the BMW iX, but only with Level 2 driver assistance; BMW's first eyes-off Level 3 system ('Personal Pilot L3') did not arrive until March 2024, on the 7 Series in Germany only, and the three-way platform partnership did not deliver a jointly developed production autonomous vehicle.
PendingJobs & EconomySaid Jun 7, 2016Deadline Dec 31, 2026
“My prediction: By 2026, Google's main product will not be search but AI.”
Verdict: Deadline runs to the end of 2026. Search advertising still supplies the large majority of Alphabet's revenue, though Google reframed Search around AI Mode at I/O 2026, so resolution will hinge on how 'main product' is judged.
IncorrectHealthcareSaid 2016Deadline Dec 31, 2017
“Watson will touch one billion consumers by the end of 2017, transforming healthcare along the way.”
Verdict: Watson Health fell far short of its promises: flagship partnerships like MD Anderson were cancelled, and IBM sold off Watson Health assets in 2022.
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Jun 2016Deadline Jun 30, 2018
“I consider autonomous driving to be a basically solved problem. We're less than two years away from complete autonomy. Regulators however will take at least another year; they'll want to see billions of miles of data.”
Verdict: Complete autonomy did not arrive by mid-2018 — nor by 2026. Tesla's FSD remained a supervised Level 2 system, and autonomous driving was clearly not a 'solved problem.'
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid Feb 9, 2016Deadline Mar 15, 2016
“Registered wager, 9 February 2016: Yudkowsky stakes $67 against a counterparty's $100 that AlphaGo will not beat Lee Sedol in their March 2016 match — odds implying he gave AlphaGo under a 60% chance of winning.”
Verdict: AlphaGo beat Lee Sedol 4–1 in Seoul, 9–15 March 2016, so Yudkowsky lost the wager; he later said he had bet with the superforecasters on this question and updated afterwards.
Partially correctSelf-DrivingSaid Feb 3, 2016Deadline Dec 31, 2021
“A shuttle/bus that can only drive one bus route or just in a small region is the more promising goal: "I hope we'll have a large number of vehicles on roads within 3 years, and be mass producing them in 5."”
Verdict: Limited series production did begin — Baidu and King Long rolled the 100th Apolong autonomous minibus off the line in July 2018, and Navya, EasyMile and Local Motors built shuttles in small series — but by the end of 2021 there was no large number of driverless shuttles on public roads and nothing resembling mass production: deployments stayed at pilot scale with onboard attendants, US regulators suspended EasyMile passenger operations after a 2020 injury, and Local Motors shut down in January 2022.
IncorrectJobs & EconomySaid Jan 18, 2016Deadline Dec 31, 2020
“Current trends could lead to a net employment impact of more than 5.1 million jobs lost to disruptive labour market changes over the period 2015–2020, with a total loss of 7.1 million jobs and a total gain of 2 million jobs across 15 major developed and emerging economies.”
Verdict: No net technology-driven loss of ~5 million jobs materialised in the 15 economies studied: employment grew across them through 2019, and the WEF's own 2018 Future of Jobs Report reversed the forecast to project net job creation. The 2020 job losses that did occur were driven by the COVID-19 pandemic rather than the predicted labour-market disruption.
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Jan 10, 2016Deadline Dec 31, 2018
“In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY.”
Verdict: Cross-country Summon never shipped. The only meaningful expansion was Smart Summon in September 2019, which moves a car short distances within a parking lot under line-of-sight supervision.
“Back in early 2016 I bet at even odds that self-driving ride sharing would be available in 10 US cities by July 2023. Then I made similar bets a dozen times because everyone disagreed with me. [In April 2016 I gave a 60% probability to 10 cities; the first deployment to potentially meet our bar was Phoenix in 2022.]”
Verdict: Christiano publicly conceded in July 2023 that he lost the bets: only Phoenix (2022) and arguably San Francisco offered anything close to public driverless ride-hailing by the deadline, far short of 10 US cities.
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Dec 21, 2015Deadline Dec 31, 2017
“We're going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years.”
Verdict: No Tesla achieved complete autonomy by the end of 2017; the promised fully autonomous cross-country demonstration drive never happened and FSD remained a supervised Level 2 system.
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Oct 14, 2015Deadline Dec 31, 2018
“I think from a technology standpoint — and it is important to distinguish these things, because they are very different — technologically I think Tesla will have a car that can do full autonomy in about three years. Maybe a bit sooner.”
Verdict: By the end of 2018 Tesla had no vehicle capable of full autonomy; Autopilot/FSD remained an SAE Level 2 driver-assistance system requiring constant supervision — and still does as of 2026.
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Oct 6, 2015Deadline Oct 6, 2019
“Self-driving cars are going to get here much faster than people think — we'll see them in three to four years.”
Verdict: By October 2019 no driverless car was generally available: Waymo One launched in December 2018 with safety drivers behind the wheel, and Waymo only opened fully driverless rides to the public in a ~50-square-mile Phoenix-area geofence in October 2020, a year after Altman's deadline.
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Mar 2015Deadline Dec 31, 2019
“My oldest son is 11... that means in four and a half years, he's going to be able to get his driver's license. My team and I are committed to making sure that doesn't happen.”
Verdict: By late 2019 self-driving cars were nowhere near ubiquitous enough to make a driver's licence unnecessary: Waymo's only public service was a limited, mostly safety-driver-supervised operation in suburban Phoenix. Urmson himself had left Google in 2016 and by 2019, as Aurora's CEO, was saying driverless cars would be integrated onto roads over the next 30 to 50 years.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Feb 26, 2015Deadline Feb 26, 2035
“Superhuman machine intelligence (SMI) is probably still decades away.”
Verdict: Operationalized as superhuman machine intelligence not arriving before ~2035 (at least two decades from February 2015); written months before Altman co-founded OpenAI and notably more conservative than his later 'few thousand days' superintelligence timeline.
CorrectJobs & EconomySaid Dec 2014Deadline Dec 31, 2025
“The US BEA has been tracking the fraction of the US economy devoted to computer and electronics hardware. That fraction was 2.3% in 1997, 1.7% in 2003, and 1.58% in 2008, and 1.56% in 2012. I offer to bet that this number won't rise above 5% by 2025. And I'll give 20-1 odds! So far, I have no takers.”
Verdict: The BEA computer-and-electronic-products share of the US economy stayed near its long-run ~1.5–2% level and never approached 5%; Hanson appended to the post on 1 January 2025 that he had won the bet (the counterparty who took the 20-1 offer did not pay up).
IncorrectSafety & RiskSaid Nov 17, 2014Deadline Nov 17, 2024
“The pace of progress in artificial intelligence is incredibly fast... The risk of something seriously dangerous happening is in the five year timeframe. 10 years at most.”
Verdict: Both the five-year (2019) and the ten-year outer bound (November 2024) passed with no catastrophic AI event of the kind Musk described; the phrasing was hedged ('the risk of something seriously dangerous'), but no reasonable reading of that threshold was met by the deadline.
Partially correctSelf-DrivingSaid Oct 2014Deadline Dec 31, 2015
“A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles can be on auto. For sure highway travel.”
Verdict: Autopilot v7.0 shipped in October 2015 with highway Autosteer, auto lane change and self-parking, partially matching the 'for sure highway travel' part. But it was a supervised Level 2 system requiring hands on the wheel, and nowhere near 90% of owners' miles were driven autonomously.
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid Jun 3, 2014Deadline Jun 30, 2015
“I am confident that in less than a year you will be able to go from highway on ramp to highway exits without touching any controls.”
Verdict: Nothing shipped by mid-2015; Autopilot's Autosteer only arrived in October 2015 and required hands on the wheel, with no ability to handle interchanges or take exits. On-ramp-to-off-ramp driving ('Navigate on Autopilot') did not appear until late 2018, and still under driver supervision.
CorrectAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid 2014Deadline Dec 31, 2022
“Surveyed AI experts gave a median date of 2022 for a 10% probability of high-level machine intelligence — a machine that can carry out most human professions at least as well as a typical human.”
Verdict: No system by the end of 2022 could carry out most human professions at least as well as a typical human, so the surveyed experts' low (10%) probability for that date was borne out — the 90% 'not yet' side was right.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid 2014Deadline Dec 31, 2050
“The median estimate of respondents was for a one in two chance that high-level machine intelligence — a machine that can carry out most human professions at least as well as a typical human — will be developed around 2040–2050.”
Verdict: By 2020 Nissan had shipped only ProPILOT 2.0 — a hands-off but eyes-on, single-lane highway Level 2 system launched on the Skyline in 2019 — not commercially viable autonomous driving. Nissan pushed the target to 2022 and has since said its next-generation autonomous driving technology will launch from fiscal 2027.
IncorrectAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Dec 2011Deadline Dec 31, 2019
“I'd also like to add to this prediction that I expect to see an impressive proto-AGI within the next 8 years. By this I mean a system with basic vision, basic sound processing, basic movement control, and basic language abilities, with all of these things being essentially learnt rather than preprogrammed. It will also be able to solve a range of simple problems, including novel ones.”
Verdict: By the end of 2019 impressive learned systems existed separately for vision, speech, control and language (e.g. GPT-2, AlphaStar), but no single system combined all four modalities with novel problem solving; the PredictionBook entry tracking this claim was judged wrong on 31 December 2019. Integrated multimodal agents such as Gato and GPT-4V only arrived in 2022–2023.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Jun 17, 2011Deadline Dec 31, 2050
“Asked by what year he would assign a 10%/50%/90% chance of the development of human-level machine intelligence, assuming no global catastrophe halts progress: 2018, 2028, 2050.”
Verdict: The 10% milestone year (2018) passed without human-level machine intelligence by most definitions, but the forecast's 50% (2028) and 90% (2050) points remain open.
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid Dec 2010Deadline Dec 31, 2018
“Over the last year computer power has increased as expected, and so it looks like we're still on target to have supercomputers with 10^18 FLOPS around 2018.”
Verdict: In 2018 ORNL's Summit reached roughly 1.9 exaops on a mixed-precision genomics application, but sustained double-precision exascale (10^18 FLOPS on HPL) was not achieved until Frontier hit 1.1 exaflops in May 2022 — about four years later than 'around 2018'.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Dec 2009Deadline Dec 31, 2028
“My prediction for the last 10 years has been for roughly human level AGI in the year 2025... This year I've tried to come up with something a bit more precise. In doing so what I've found is that while my mode is about 2025, my expected value is actually a bit higher at 2028. Perhaps more useful is my 90% credibility region, which from my current belief distribution comes out at 2018 to 2036.”
Verdict: Legg's log-normal AGI distribution (mode 2025, mean 2028, 90% range 2018–2036) remains open; he has restated the 2028 expectation repeatedly since.
CorrectAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid 2008Deadline Dec 31, 2018
“In 2008 I bet $10k against Anna Salamon's $100 that AI would not pass the Turing test by 2018. I was pretty dead certain it couldn't happen that soon. In fact, we agreed on a strict version of the Turing test that even now, AI can't pass.”
Verdict: No system passed the strict Turing test the two agreed on by the end of 2018 — Reeves notes that as of 2025 AI still cannot pass it — so Reeves won the wager.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Sep 2005Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“AI will pass a valid Turing test, achieving human-level intelligence, by 2029.”
Verdict: Conversational tests are increasingly passed, but Kurzweil's own definition requires expert-level performance across the full range of human cognition.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Sep 2005Deadline Dec 31, 2045
“The Singularity — a profound merger of human and machine intelligence — will occur around 2045.”
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid Feb 2005Deadline Dec 31, 2010
“By 2010 computers will disappear. They'll be so small, they'll be embedded in our clothing, in our environment. Images will be written directly to our retina, providing full-immersion virtual reality, augmented real reality. We'll be interacting with virtual personalities.”
Verdict: In 2010 laptops, desktops and smartphones were plainly visible devices; retinal projection displays and full-immersion VR were not commercial products, and IEEE Spectrum judged the prediction only defensible by redefining 'computer' so loosely as to make it trivial.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid 2002Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“By 2029 no computer — or 'machine intelligence' — will have passed the Turing Test.”
Verdict: The inaugural Long Bets wager, $20,000 against Ray Kurzweil, remains open until the end of 2029 under detailed agreed rules (multi-hour adversarial interviews with human judges and human foils); neither side has conceded, and claimed 'passes' such as Eugene Goostman in 2014 did not meet the bet's terms.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Dec 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2040
“By 2040, I believe, we will finally achieve the original goal of robotics and a thematic mainstay of science fiction: a freely moving machine with the intellectual capabilities of a human being.”
Verdict: Deadline is 2040; Moravec's staged timeline (lizard-level mobile robots by 2010, human-scale robot intelligence by 2040) has so far run well behind schedule on the embodied-robotics side.
PendingHealthcareSaid Sep 1, 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“Within three decades, neural implants will be available that interface directly to our brain cells. The implants would enhance sensory experiences and improve our memory and thinking. [i.e. by ~2029.]”
Verdict: Deadline is end of 2029. Investigational BCIs (Neuralink, Blackrock, Synchron) now interface with brain tissue in a handful of patients, but enhancement implants for memory or sensory augmentation are not available.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Sep 1, 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“By 2029 the software for intelligence will have been largely mastered.”
Verdict: Deadline is end of 2029; Kurzweil has repeatedly reaffirmed the 2029 human-level-AI date, most recently in The Singularity Is Nearer (2024).
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2009
“The majority of text is created using continuous speech recognition (CSR) dictation software, but keyboards are still used. CSR is very accurate, far more so than the human transcriptionists who were used up until a few years ago.”
Verdict: In 2009 the overwhelming majority of text was still typed on physical and touchscreen keyboards; dictation software remained a niche tool, and even Kurzweil's own 2010 defense of his scorecard did not claim this one as a hit.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2009
“Computer displays built into eyeglasses are also used. These specialized glasses allow users to see the normal visual environment, while creating a virtual image that appears to hover in front of the viewer. The virtual images are created by a tiny laser built into the glasses that projects the images directly onto the user's retinas.”
Verdict: No consumer retinal-projection eyeglasses were in use in 2009; virtual retinal display remained a laboratory and niche military technology, and IEEE Spectrum's 2010 review specifically disputed Kurzweil's attempt to score this prediction as correct.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2009
“Personal computers are available in a wide range of sizes and shapes, and are commonly embedded in clothing and jewelry such as wristwatches, rings, earrings, and other body ornaments. People typically have at least a dozen computers on and around their bodies, which are networked using 'body LANs' (local area networks).”
Verdict: In 2009 the typical person carried one or two computing devices (a phone, perhaps a laptop); computers embedded in clothing and jewelry networked in 'body LANs' did not exist as a mass phenomenon, though several of the functions Kurzweil listed had migrated into smartphones.
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2009
“Intelligent roads are in use, primarily for long-distance travel. Once your car's computer guidance system locks onto the control sensors on one of these highways, you can sit back and relax.”
Verdict: No instrumented 'intelligent highways' with embedded control sensors were deployed by 2009; automated highway system programs had been wound down in the late 1990s, and the self-driving progress that did follow came from onboard sensing and GPS rather than smart roads.
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2009
“Warfare is dominated by unmanned intelligent airborne devices. Many of these flying weapons are the size of small birds, or smaller.”
Verdict: Armed drones had become central to the air campaigns in Afghanistan and Pakistan by 2009, and Kurzweil argued the prediction held, but warfare overall was still conducted by manned platforms and ground forces, and bird-sized flying weapons were not in general use.
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2009
“Translating Telephone technology — speech-to-speech language translation during phone calls — is commonly used for many language pairs.”
Verdict: Speech translation apps appeared only at the very end of 2009 (Kurzweil himself pointed to a late-2009 iPhone app and Google's voice translation), so the technology existed in early consumer form but was not yet 'commonly used' for many language pairs by the deadline.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2019
“The computational capacity of a $4,000 computing device (in 1999 dollars) is approximately equal to the computational capability of the human brain (20 quadrillion calculations per second).”
Verdict: In 2019 a ~$4,000 consumer machine delivered on the order of tens of teraflops (10^13), roughly three orders of magnitude short of the 2×10^16 calculations per second Kurzweil specified; 20-petaflop performance was confined to the world's largest supercomputers.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2019
“The summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race.”
Verdict: The reviewer's 2020 tally put total world computing capacity at roughly 0.05% of the aggregate computational capacity of all human brains — orders of magnitude below 'comparable' — and concluded the prediction was very wrong.
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2019
“Computers are now largely invisible and are embedded everywhere — in walls, tables, chairs, desks, clothing, jewelry, and bodies.”
Verdict: Embedded and wearable computing did become pervasive by 2019 (smart speakers, sensors, smartwatches, connected appliances), but computing was arguably more visible than ever — dominated by handheld screens and laptops rather than disappearing into furniture, clothing and bodies.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2019
“People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas, and these direct-eye displays are the primary means by which people read documents.”
Verdict: Retinal-projection glasses and display contact lenses were not commercially available in 2019; VR headsets used conventional panels and were owned by a small minority, while reading was overwhelmingly done on phone, tablet, e-reader and laptop screens.
IncorrectHealthcareSaid 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2019
“Human life expectancy is now over one hundred years.”
Verdict: Life expectancy in 2019 was roughly 78–79 years in the United States and about 73 years globally — nowhere near 100.
IncorrectHealthcareSaid 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2019
“Paraplegic and some quadriplegic persons routinely walk and climb stairs through a combination of computer-controlled nerve stimulation and exoskeletal robotic devices.”
Verdict: Powered exoskeletons existed in 2019 but were rare, costly and mostly confined to rehabilitation clinics; paraplegics overwhelmingly still used wheelchairs, and no combined nerve-stimulation/exoskeleton device was in routine daily use.
CorrectAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2019
“There are prevalent reports of computers passing the Turing test, although these tests do not meet the criteria established by knowledgeable observers.”
Verdict: Widely publicized claims of machines passing the Turing test did appear well before 2019 — most prominently the 'Eugene Goostman' chatbot in 2014 — and in each case AI researchers rejected the test conditions as failing serious criteria, exactly the pattern Kurzweil described.
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2019
“Automated driving systems have been found to be highly reliable and have now been installed in nearly all roads. While humans are still allowed to drive on local roads (although not on highways), the automated driving systems are always engaged and are ready to take control when necessary to prevent accidents.”
Verdict: No roadway automation infrastructure was installed by 2019, humans still drove on highways everywhere, and the only widely mandated intervening system was automatic emergency braking; self-driving progress came from onboard sensors rather than instrumented roads.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“A $1,000 unit of computation has the computing capacity of approximately one thousand human brains.”
Verdict: Dollar figures are in 1999 dollars; Kurzweil's own benchmark for one human brain is ~2×10^16 calculations per second, so this requires ~2×10^19 cps for $1,000.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2029
“Machines claim to be conscious and these claims are largely accepted. There is growing discussion about the legal rights of computers and what constitutes being human.”
Verdict: Frontier model training corpora already cover a large share of digitized text and growing volumes of audio and video, making this one of the closer calls on Kurzweil's 2029 list.
Verdict: Current life expectancy is under 80 in the US and about 73 globally, so this would require an unprecedented jump within the remaining window.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2009
“Rotating memories (that is, computer memories that use a rotating platen, such as hard drives, CD-ROMs, and DVDs) are on their way out, although rotating magnetic memories are still used in server computers where large amounts of information are stored. [By 2009.]”
Verdict: In 2009 hard drives were still the dominant consumer and enterprise storage medium and optical discs (CD/DVD/Blu-ray) were in mass use; flash-based SSDs were a small, expensive niche. Rotating storage was not 'on its way out' by the target date.
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2009
“Cables are disappearing. Communication between components, such as pointing devices, microphones, displays, printers, and the occasional keyboard, uses short-distance wireless technology. [By 2009.]”
Verdict: By 2009 Wi-Fi networking and Bluetooth mice, keyboards and headsets were common, but displays, printers, speakers, charging and most peripheral connections remained wired (USB/HDMI), so cables had not 'disappeared'. Kurzweil scored this correct; critics including IEEE Spectrum disputed that reading.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2009
“Most users have servers in their homes and offices where they keep large stores of digital objects, including their software, databases, documents, music, movies, and virtual-reality environments... There are services to keep one's digital objects in central repositories, but most people prefer to keep their private information under their own physical control. [By 2009.]”
Verdict: The opposite happened: by 2009 consumers had overwhelmingly moved their media, mail and documents into centralized cloud services (Gmail, YouTube, iTunes, Facebook, Dropbox), and home servers remained a hobbyist niche.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2009
“In terms of circuitry, three-dimensional chips are commonly used. [By 2009.]”
Verdict: Mainstream logic and memory in 2009 were planar; 3D-stacked devices (3D NAND, HBM, TSV logic stacking) only reached volume production years later. Kurzweil claimed vindication via 'vertical stacking', but IEEE Spectrum judged that it was 'simply wrong to insist that they already are' common.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2019
“Keyboards are rare, although they still exist. Most interaction with computing is through gestures using hands, fingers, and facial expressions and through two-way natural-language spoken communication. [By 2019.]”
Verdict: Keyboards remained ubiquitous in 2019 — roughly a billion active desktops, laptops and detachable-keyboard devices, plus on-screen keyboards on every smartphone. Touch and voice grew, but gesture and facial-expression interfaces did not displace typing.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2019
“Realistic all-encompassing visual, auditory, and tactile environments enable people to do virtually anything with anybody, regardless of physical proximity. [By 2019.]”
Verdict: In 2019 VR was a small niche (a few million headsets), haptics were rudimentary, and remote interaction was dominated by flat video calls; no 'all-encompassing' visual-auditory-tactile environments existed.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2019
“Household robots are ubiquitous and reliable. [By 2019.]”
Verdict: By 2019 the only mass-market household robots were single-task vacuums (Roomba and imitators) and static voice assistants; general-purpose, reliable household robots did not exist.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2019
“Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are now a prevalent form of computing circuitry. [By 2019.]”
Verdict: Computing in 2019 ran on silicon CMOS; carbon-nanotube circuitry remained a laboratory curiosity (e.g. MIT's 2019 16-bit RV16X-NANO prototype) with no commercial deployment.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2019
“The majority of 'computes' of computers are now devoted to massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms. [By 2019.]”
Verdict: Deep learning was booming by 2019, but neural-network training and inference were still a small minority of global compute cycles, which were dominated by conventional CPU workloads; genetic algorithms remained marginal.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2019
“Rotating memories and other electromechanical computing devices have been fully replaced with electronic devices. [By 2019.]”
Verdict: Hard disk drives were still shipping by the hundreds of millions in 2019 and carried most data-center bulk storage; the word 'fully' makes the prediction plainly false, and assessors in Armstrong's survey graded it false.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2019
“Thin, lightweight, handheld displays with very high resolutions are the preferred means for viewing documents. [By 2019.]”
Verdict: Smartphones and tablets in 2019 were thin (sub-quarter-inch), light (ounces) and had pixel densities beyond the eye's resolving power, and had become the everyday medium for reading documents — though the companion claim that AR direct-eye displays would be even more common was wrong.
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2019
“People are beginning to have relationships with automated personalities as companions, teachers, caretakers, and lovers. [By 2019.]”
Verdict: By 2019 companion AI at real scale existed — Replika (2017) and Microsoft's Xiaoice drew millions of users who described them as friends or romantic partners — so people had indeed 'begun' such relationships. But mainstream automated personalities (Siri, Alexa, Cortana) remained transactional and the teacher/caretaker/lover roles only became widespread after the 2022–2023 LLM wave, so the prediction was directionally right but early on breadth.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2019
“A new computer-controlled optical-imaging technology using quantum-based diffraction devices has replaced most lenses with tiny devices that can detect light waves from any angle. These pinhead-sized cameras are everywhere. [By 2019.]”
Verdict: Quantum-diffraction imaging never replaced lenses — such devices remained confined to research labs in 2019 — and no pinhead-sized cameras became ubiquitous. Cameras did become small, cheap and near-omnipresent in smartphones and doorbells, so the prediction was right in spirit but wrong on both the enabling technology and the stated scale.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid 1999Deadline Dec 31, 2019
“Autonomous nanoengineered machines can control their own mobility and include significant computational engines. These microscopic machines are beginning to be applied to commercial applications, particularly in manufacturing and process control, but are not yet in the mainstream. [By 2019.]”
Verdict: By 2019 there were no autonomous nanoengineered machines that controlled their own mobility or carried significant onboard computation; commercial nanotechnology remained confined to passive nanomaterials, coatings and lab-stage devices, with none in manufacturing or process-control use.
PendingAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid 1998Deadline Dec 31, 2033
“This paper outlines the case for believing that we will have superhuman artificial intelligence within the first third of the next [i.e. this] century.”
Verdict: Deadline is the end of the first third of the 21st century (~2033); no superhuman AI exists as of early 2026, though Bostrom's later postscripts note no major AGI breakthrough had occurred.
CorrectCapabilitiesSaid 1998Deadline Dec 31, 2024
“Depending on degree of optimization assumed, human-level intelligence probably requires between 10^14 and 10^17 ops... If Moore's law continues to hold then the lower bound will be reached sometime between 2004 and 2008, and the upper bound between 2015 and 2024.”
Verdict: Both hardware windows held: leading supercomputers passed 10^14 ops in 2004–2005 (IBM Blue Gene/L, 70.7 TFLOPS in Nov 2004 rising past 100 TFLOPS in 2005) and passed 10^17 ops in 2016–2018 (Sunway TaihuLight at 93 PFLOPS Linpack/125 PFLOPS peak in 2016; Summit at 122+ PFLOPS in 2018), inside the predicted 2004–2008 and 2015–2024 ranges. The separate question of whether that hardware yields human-level intelligence is not part of this claim.
IncorrectAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Mar 1993Deadline Dec 31, 2023
“Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended.”
Verdict: 2023 saw remarkable AI progress, but no superhuman general intelligence and no end of the human era. Frontier models remained clearly below expert human ability in most domains.
IncorrectSelf-DrivingSaid 1990Deadline Dec 31, 2009
“The cybernetic chauffeur, installed in one's car, communicates with other cars and sensors on the roads. In this way it successfully drives and navigates from one point to another — by the end of the 1990s, with implementation on major highways feasible during the first decade of the twenty-first century.”
Verdict: No self-driving 'cybernetic chauffeur' existed by the end of the 1990s, and no automated-highway implementation arrived during 2000-2009 — Google's self-driving project only began in 2009. Kurzweil himself conceded in 2012 that the prediction was wrong, though 'not all wrong.'
IncorrectAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid Nov 1970Deadline Dec 31, 1978
“In from three to eight years we will have a machine with the general intelligence of an average human being.”
Verdict: No machine approached human-level general intelligence by 1978. Funding cuts and the first AI winter followed within a few years.
IncorrectAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid 1967Deadline Dec 31, 1997
“Within a generation, I am convinced, few compartments of intellect will remain outside the machine's realm — the problems of creating 'artificial intelligence' will be substantially solved.”
Verdict: A generation on, AI was nowhere near solved: the field had passed through two AI winters, and the best systems of the 1990s were narrow (Deep Blue's 1997 chess win being the showcase). Minsky himself conceded by 1982 that 'the AI problem is one of the hardest science has ever undertaken.'
IncorrectAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid 1965Deadline Dec 31, 1985
“Machines will be capable, within twenty years, of doing any work a man can do.”
Verdict: By 1985, AI was in the middle of an 'AI winter.' Machines could not perform most human work then, and still cannot perform all of it today.
IncorrectAGI & SuperintelligenceSaid 1965Deadline Dec 31, 2000
“It is more probable than not that, within the twentieth century, an ultraintelligent machine will be built and that it will be the last invention that man need make, since it will lead to an 'intelligence explosion.'”
Verdict: No machine capable of far surpassing all the intellectual activities of any man was built by the end of the twentieth century, and no intelligence explosion occurred; the AI systems of 2000 were narrow and the term 'ultraintelligent machine' remained speculative.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid 1958Deadline Dec 31, 1968
“That within ten years a digital computer will be the world's chess champion, unless the rules bar it from competition.”
Verdict: Chess programs in the late 1960s played only weak amateur chess — a leading program famously lost to a ten-year-old in 1966. A computer did not defeat a reigning world champion until Deep Blue beat Garry Kasparov in 1997, roughly 30 years late, and no machine has ever held the world championship title.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid 1958Deadline Dec 31, 1968
“That within ten years a digital computer will discover and prove an important new mathematical theorem.”
Verdict: No computer discovered and proved an important new theorem in the ten-year window; contemporaries such as Hubert Dreyfus noted in the mid-1960s that the field was still far from it. The landmark computer-assisted results came much later — the four colour theorem in 1976 and the Robbins conjecture in 1996.
IncorrectCapabilitiesSaid 1958Deadline Dec 31, 1968
“That within ten years a digital computer will write music that will be accepted by critics as possessing considerable aesthetic value.”
Verdict: Algorithmic composition existed before and during the window (Hiller and Isaacson's Illiac Suite, 1957; Computer Cantata, 1963), but it was received as a technical curiosity rather than as work critics judged to possess considerable aesthetic value, and no computer-composed piece achieved such standing by the late 1960s.
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid 1958Deadline Dec 31, 1968
“That within ten years most theories in psychology will take the form of computer programs, or of qualitative statements about the characteristics of computer programs.”
Verdict: Information-processing models did become an influential way of theorising in the cognitive revolution that Newell and Simon themselves led, culminating in Human Problem Solving (1972). But the great majority of psychological theories — in clinical, social, developmental and personality psychology — were never cast as computer programs within the ten-year window or since.
Partially correctCapabilitiesSaid Oct 1950Deadline Dec 31, 2000
“By the year 2000, machines will be able to fool 30% of human judges during a five-minute text conversation.”
Verdict: Not achieved by 2000, but modern language models now routinely pass five-minute conversational tests: controlled 2024 studies found GPT-4 judged human well above Turing's 30% threshold. Right about the destination, ~25 years off on the date.