AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

CapabilitiesPartially correct
“We're training the Llama 4 models on a cluster that is bigger than 100,000 H100s or bigger than anything that I've seen reported for what others are doing. I expect that the smaller Llama 4 models will be ready first, and they'll be ready, we expect, sometime early next year. And I think that they're going to be a big deal on several fronts, new modalities, capabilities, stronger reasoning, and much faster.”

Founder, Chairman and CEO of Meta Platforms

Said Oct 30, 2024Deadline Mar 31, 2025Meta Platforms Q3 2024 earnings call, October 30, 2024

The smaller Llama 4 models (Scout and Maverick) shipped on April 5, 2025 — essentially 'early 2025' but just past the first quarter — and were natively multimodal as promised. However, the promised leap in reasoning did not materialize: the flagship Behemoth teacher model was repeatedly delayed and effectively shelved, no Llama 4 reasoning model was released, and the launch was marred by a benchmarking controversy.