“Paul put 8% probability on 'AI built before the 2025 IMO reaches gold level on it' and I put 'at least 16%'... I'll stand by a >16% probability of the technical capability existing by end of 2025.”

Eliezer YudkowskyThought Leader

Co-founder, Machine Intelligence Research Institute

In July 2025, models from Google DeepMind and OpenAI achieved gold-medal-level scores (35/42, five of six problems) at the IMO under human-equivalent time controls, vindicating the higher-probability side of the disagreement roughly three and a half years after it was registered.