“Bryan Caplan pays Eliezer $100 now, in exchange for $200 CPI-adjusted from Eliezer if the world has not been ended by nonaligned AI before 12:00am GMT on January 1st, 2030.”
Co-founder and Research Fellow, Machine Intelligence Research Institute
Said Jan 17, 2017Deadline Jan 1, 2030Bryan Caplan, 'My End-of-the-World Bet with Eliezer Yudkowsky', EconLog, 17 January 2017
Bet terms were drafted in the first person by Yudkowsky and prepaid by Caplan; note that Yudkowsky has argued the prepayment structure makes the implied odds a poor read of his actual credence. Resolves 1 January 2030.