“In the short term, technologically enabled productivity gains could continue to slow employment growth in the US, driving the unemployment rate up from 4.4% to 5.0%+ and encouraging the U.S. Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates. Thereafter, deregulation and other fiscal stimuli should turbocharge the impact of lower interest rates and accelerate GDP growth during the second half of 2026.”
CEO and Chief Investment Officer, ARK Invest
Said Jan 15, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026ARK Invest market commentary, "Cathie Wood's 2026 Outlook: The US Economy Is A Coiled Spring," January 15, 2026
Resolves at the end of 2026 on the US unemployment rate and second-half GDP acceleration; US growth slowed to a 1.5% annualized pace in Q2 2026, so the second-half acceleration remains untested.