AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“2026 will be a 'Goldilocks' year: US real GDP growth surging toward 5%, accompanied by falling inflation — potentially outright deflation — driven by an AI-led productivity boom.”

CEO and Chief Investment Officer, ARK Invest

Full-year 2026 real GDP growth and inflation will decide it; US growth ran 2.1% in Q1 2026 and slowed to 1.5% annualized in Q2 2026, well below the ~5% path.