AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

CapabilitiesPartially correct
“I think this is the year that, at least by the competitive coding benchmark, AI becomes better than humans at competitive coding — and stays better, forever. At the rate we're going, I would be surprised if it's 2027. I think it's going to be sooner. (o1-preview was about the millionth-best competitive programmer in the world, o1 was in the top 1,000, and o3 ranked 175th.)”

Chief Product Officer, OpenAI

In September 2025 OpenAI's reasoning system scored a perfect 12/12 at the ICPC World Finals — enough for a first-place human ranking, ahead of all 139 university teams — and models took IOI gold, so AI matched or beat the best humans in standard algorithmic contests. But no AI held the top human competitive-programming rating outright by year-end, and a human (Psyho) beat OpenAI's model at the AtCoder World Tour Finals heuristic contest in July 2025, so the 'better forever' framing was not established.