AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“If one takes a view over the next generation, this could be the biggest thing that has happened in economic history since the Industrial Revolution... This offers the prospect of not replacing some forms of human labor, but almost all forms of human labor.”

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary; Harvard president emeritus; OpenAI board member at the time (2023-2025)

Generational horizon (~2049); Summers paired the claim with the view that productivity gains would take years to materialize, so nothing is resolvable yet.