“[Asked whether he wanted to revise his prediction that it would take at least 10 to 15 years for AI to be as good as human superforecasters:] I think it's probably about right. I would say, relative to a year ago, AI is about at the 40th percentile of progress I would've expected.”
Statistician and writer; founder of FiveThirtyEight; author of Silver Bulletin and On the Edge
Said Jul 23, 2025Deadline Jul 23, 2040Conversations with Tyler, Ep. 251, 'Nate Silver on Life's Mixed Strategies' (recorded July 23, 2025; published August 13, 2025)
Long-dated claim (parity no sooner than ~2035-2040). In the earlier 2024 episode Silver's stated over was '15 or 20' years; FRI's October 2025 ForecastBench update judged Cowen's timeline closer, though superforecasters still topped the leaderboard in January 2026.