AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“In 2008 I bet $10k against Anna Salamon's $100 that AI would not pass the Turing test by 2018. I was pretty dead certain it couldn't happen that soon. In fact, we agreed on a strict version of the Turing test that even now, AI can't pass.”

Co-founder and CEO of Beeminder; author of the AGI Friday newsletter

No system passed the strict Turing test the two agreed on by the end of 2018 — Reeves notes that as of 2025 AI still cannot pass it — so Reeves won the wager.