AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

CapabilitiesPartially correct
“The sleeping giant, Google has woken up, and they are iterating on a pace that will smash GPT-4 total pre-training FLOPS by 5x before the end of the year.”

Founder and Chief Analyst, SemiAnalysis; co-authored with Daniel Nishball

Google did unveil Gemini Ultra on December 6, 2023, and it did exceed GPT-4's training compute — but Epoch AI estimates Gemini Ultra at ~5e25 FLOP versus ~2e25 FLOP for GPT-4, roughly 2.5x rather than 5x (and the model was not generally available until 2024).