AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“Prediction: within 12 months, top three models will be open source. Economic winners will be the American clouds that serve them: Nebius Iren Baseten Together Fireworks”

Founder and CEO of Social Capital, CEO of 8090, co-host of the All-In podcast

Said Sep 19, 2026Deadline Sep 19, 2027X post by @chamath, September 19, 2026

Posted in reply to data showing open-weight models at 78.4% of token volume on Vercel's AI Gateway; resolves by September 19, 2027 on whether the top three models (by usage/leaderboard standing) are open source.