AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“We are closer than before, yet many decades away from an AI that matches human intelligence. If you stick with the original definition — aligned with what people genuinely imagine AGI to be — we remain very, very far away. [AGI defined as AI that can do any intellectual task a human can, such as learning to drive a truck through a forest or writing a PhD thesis.]”

Founder of DeepLearning.AI, executive chairman of Landing AI, founding lead of Google Brain

Operationalized as no AGI (AI able to perform any intellectual task a human can) by the end of 2046, the earliest reading of 'many decades away'; in the same interview Ng metaphorically put progress at 2% over the past year with 'another 49 years to go.'