AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

Self-DrivingPartially correct
“A shuttle/bus that can only drive one bus route or just in a small region is the more promising goal: "I hope we'll have a large number of vehicles on roads within 3 years, and be mass producing them in 5."”

Chief Scientist, Baidu Research; founder of Google Brain

Limited series production did begin — Baidu and King Long rolled the 100th Apolong autonomous minibus off the line in July 2018, and Navya, EasyMile and Local Motors built shuttles in small series — but by the end of 2021 there was no large number of driverless shuttles on public roads and nothing resembling mass production: deployments stayed at pilot scale with onboard attendants, US regulators suspended EasyMile passenger operations after a 2020 injury, and Local Motors shut down in January 2022.